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People gather at a petrol station in Bamako, Mali, on November 1, 2025, amid ongoing fuel shortages caused by a blockade imposed by al Qaeda-linked insurgents.
Mali’s insurgency spells trouble for West Africa
One of the most expansive countries in West Africa is on the precipice of falling to an Islamist group that has pledged to transform the country into a pre-modern caliphate.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM), a militant group that has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, has surrounded Mali’s capital Bamako, blocking fuel from entering the city of four million people, with the aim of bringing down the government.
If that happens, it could be a catastrophe for the 25 million people of Mali – particularly the country’s women.
“It would be the end of secular governance and a shift to a theocratic system and sharia law, the abolition of democracy, lots of violence and repression, massive displacements, terrible for women’s rights and deepening ethnic divides,” said Eurasia Group’s West Africa analyst Jeanne Ramier.
And it would be a geopolitical setback for the ruling military junta’s backers in Moscow.. But the damage could also, Ramier says, spread beyond Mali itself.
“It would be very bad for everyone,” Ramier said of JNIM’s potential takeover. “It would definitely affect countries beyond the Sahel and the whole West Africa region.”
Violent extremism has been a major issue across the Sahel for some time – an estimated 51% of all terrorism-related deaths in the world last year were in the region, per the Council on Foreign Relations. JNIM’s success in Mali has prompted similar uprisings in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. The most populous country in the region, Nigeria, has faced jihadist insurgencies from Boko Haram and West African offshoots of ISIS for 16 years. Even countries like Cote d’Ivoire, which has been relatively stable in recent years, hasn’t escaped the violence over the last decade, most notably in 2016 when militants murdered 16 people at a beach resort in Grand Bassam.
So what’s happening in Mali? Once a paragon of democracy in the region, Mali has been going through an internal conflict since 2012 when, in the middle of the Arab Spring, a US-trained Malian colonel overthrew the government.
The country has been under military rule and in flux ever since. A French invasion in 2013, welcomed by many Malians, was initially successful in knocking back Islamist groups that became active around the 2012 coup. But it quickly went awry, as militants reasserted themselves and a military junta that seized power in 2020 severed ties with the French, prompting Paris to withdraw troops later that year and abort the operation altogether in 2022. Russian mercenaries filled the power vacuum when the French left, backing the incumbent military regime which is now on the brink of collapse.
Which other countries are affected? JNIM also has a major presence in neighboring Burkina Faso, where it already controls 40% of the country amid a long running conflict that saw two coups in 2022 alone. Experts believe the momentum that the group has gathered in Mali will only make matters worse there.
Completing the so-called “coup belt” of Sahel countries run by military juntas is Niger, to Mali’s east. The military government there, which seized power in 2023, has also struggled to contain JNIM forces. Like Mali, Niger once had the help of a major outside player in tackling terrorism: the United States had a military presence there in a bid to boost the country’s counterterrorism efforts. US-Niger relations soured after the coup, though, and Washington withdrew all its soldiers from the country last year.
Where else could the jihadist insurgencies spread? Mauritania, Senegal, and even Côte d’Ivoire – all of which border Mali – could be the next targets for radicalization, said Ramier. Coastal states that don’t border Mali, like Ghana and Nigeria, may also be impacted.
Governments in these countries will seek to shore up security to prevent the insurgency spreading. They will deploy soldiers in areas where the militants are rampant. They will beef up border security. They may even seek help from western nations that would want to mitigate a potential migration crisis.
But the question will be whether they can work together to stem the spread. Ramier isn’t hopeful.
“I think the Economic Community of West African States [ECOWAS] will try to act and take a strong stance, but I think they will probably fail to turn the tide.”
France's President and Cameroon's President Paul Biya take part in a joint press conference at The Presidential Palace in Yaounde, Cameroon on July 26, 2022.
Hard Numbers: Biya says bye-bye to opposition leader’s hopes, Church attacked in DRC, Google admits earthquake alert failure, & More
13: Cameroon’s electoral office Elecam accepted just 13 of the 83 candidates who applied to run for president in elections later this year. Among the omissions was prominent opposition leader Maurice Kamto. The 92-year-old incumbent president, Paul Biya, is running for an eighth seven-year term.
40: An Islamic State affiliate killed over 40 churchgoers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Sunday, including at least nine children, amid rising violence in the region. The attack highlights the spread of jihadist extremism beyond Africa’s Sahel, and came on the same day that the DRC signed a peace agreement with Rwanda-backed rebels in its mineral-rich east.
10 million: Google admitted that it failed to sufficiently alert 10 million people who lived near the epicenter of the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria in February 2023. Only 469 people received a “Take Action” warning after the initial quake. Over 55,000 people died as a result of the disaster.
2: England women’s soccer team won their second straight European Championship on Sunday, defeating Spain in a penalty shootout after yet another comeback. This was England head coach Sarina Wiegman’s third consecutive triumph in the tournament: she won the 2017 tournament as coach of the Netherlands squad.
10 or 12? US President Donald Trump is losing patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying he must agree a deal with Ukraine within the next “10 or 12 days,” shortening a deadline of 50 days he had made two weeks ago. Trump has threatened to impose crushing “secondary” tariffs on any countries that trade with Russia.Men are seen on a farm in Makurdi, Benue, Nigeria November 29, 2018.
HARD NUMBERS: Attack in northern Nigeria, Toilet stolen from Churchill’s home, and more…
100: At least 100 people were killed in an attack on a village by armed cattle herders in the north of Nigeria. The region has long been plagued by overlapping ethnic and sectarian tensions, as well as land use conflicts between nomadic herders and settled farmers.
13: Niger’s armed forces killed 13 insurgents during raids of jihadist-controlled gold mines near its western border with Burkina Faso. The Liptako-Gourma region in the Sahel – which includes parts of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger – has become an epicenter of extremist violence in recent years, as Al Qaeda and ISIS linked groups compete for control.
7: Saudi Arabia has executed a blogger who was jailed for seven years on treason and terrorism charges. Press freedom groups say the charges against Turki Al-Jasser, who had accused the government of corruption via an anonymous X account, were trumped up.
15: The Catholic Church will soon have a gamer saint. Nicknamed “God’s influencer,” Carlos Acutis – who died from leukemia at 15 – will become the first millennial to be canonized this September. The Italian teenager was known for building websites documenting Eucharistic Miracles and his love of Halo, Super Mario and Pokémon.
6: Two men were arrested for stealing a $6.4 million golden toilet from an exhibition at Winston Churchill’s birthplace. The 18-carat toilet – designed by Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan – was part of an contemporary art exhibition at Blenheim Palace.
FILE PHOTO: Chadian interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby speaks during the launch of his presidential campaign ahead of the May elections in N'Djamena, Chad April 14, 2024.
Chadians are voting, but don’t expect change
Chad is the first of the coup-ridden Sahel states to move toward democracy. Well, inch toward democracy.
The current frontrunner is Gen. Mahamat Déby, who has been ruling in an interim capacity since his father, former President Idriss Déby, died while fighting rebels in 2021. The elder Déby led a coup in Chad in 1990 and ruled for three decades. His death opened the possibility of a new era in Chadian politics, with the younger Déby promising to hold elections – in which he wouldn’t run – within 18 months.
Three years later, those elections are finally here, and Déby is running after all, following a deadly crackdown on opponents in 2022 that sent many of his rivals into exile. Leading opposition figure Yaya Dillo was killed under murky circumstances in February. Voters told the BBC they had little confidence the election would be conducted fairly.
But don’t expect Washington or Paris to make too big a fuss over janky polls. Unlike the military regimes in Mali and Niger, which have kicked out Western powers, Chad has close relations with France and cooperates with the US military. Thethreat of extremist groups in the region means the great powers’ primary objective is keeping relations stable, though Déby has also been flirting with Moscow in recent months.
A boy holds a sign to protest against, what a teacher, local councilor and parents said, the kidnapping of hundreds school pupils by gunmen after the Friday prayer, in Kaduna, Nigeria March 8, 2024.
Hundreds of children kidnapped by extremists in Nigeria
Over 300 children have been abducted at gunpoint in northern Nigeria in recent days. On Thursday, gunmen kidnapped at least 287 children from a school in Kaduna state, and another 15 pupils were taken on Saturday. Militants are suspected of kidnapping around 200 women and children from Borno state as well. No group has claimed responsibility, but the region is plagued by Islamic extremism.
Nigeria’s army is mounting an operation to locate and retrieve the victims, but locals fear their loved ones may never return. A decade after Boko Haram attacked and kidnapped 276 schoolgirls sitting their physics exams in Chibok, 100 remain missing, and over 1,400 children have been abducted since then.
Why schoolchildren? Boko Haram, the most menacing terrorist group in the region, targets Western-style schools, which they see as contrary to their radical Islamist beliefs, and often holds survivors for years, ending their education. Female survivors recount being repeatedly raped by militants they were forced to marry, and many fell pregnant. Copycat terrorists now also target schools to extract ransoms from families.
What we’re watching: President Bola Tinubu has sworn to rescue the children, and Nigeria’s army is the best in the region — but the local governor said there weren’t enough boots on the ground. Similar violence from Islamist extremists has driven coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which Nigeria and the regional bloc ECOWAS have struggled to contain.Thousands of Nigeriens gather in front of the French army headquarter, in support of the putschist soldiers and to demand the French army to leave, in Niamey, Niger.
Niger junta calls out France
The West African nation of Niger has accused former colonial power France of plotting military intervention to reinstate the government of ousted leader Mohamed Bazoum, who was removed from power in a military coup on June 26.
In a statement on national television, a spokesman for the ruling junta, Colonel Amadou Abdramane, claimed that France was deploying forces to other West African countries as “part of preparations for an aggression against Niger” and that military cargo aircraft were unloading supplies and equipment in Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Benin.
Paris, for its part, did not respond to claims that it had deployed troops elsewhere in the region but said it backed the position of ECOWAS, an economic bloc of West African states, that has threatened to use force to reinstate Niger’s ousted leader, elected in the country's first free polls in 2021.
The coup has galvanized anti-French sentiment in Niger, and the junta has demanded France withdraw the 1,500 soldiers it maintains in the country. The United States, meanwhile, also has about 1,100 soldiers in Niger and has begun to relocate its troops “as a precaution” from Niamey to the central city of Agadez.
Both France and the US maintained a military presence as a bulwark against Islamic insurgents, who have terrorized other nations in the Sahel region, and there’s growing concern that withdrawal of Western forces could create a power vacuum Islamists would rush to fill. What's more, the Russian mercenary group known as Wagner is also looking to gain more of a foothold in Niger and other West African states.
For more on the Wagner Group's aims in Africa, see our explainer here.
The last French convoy from Operation Barkhane, prepares to leave Gossi, Mali.
The UN’s dangerous withdrawal from Mali
The UN this week laid out a timeline for withdrawing peacekeeping troops from the West African state of Mali – a mission that UN chief António Guterres has called “unprecedented” because of the vast logistical and security challenges.
Roughly 13,000 UN peacekeepers and police – and 1,786 civilian staff – will be out of the country by Dec. 31, with their infrastructure handed over to Mali’s military government. The withdrawal of UN forces, who’ve been in the country for a decade, is a huge development in a state long plagued by ethnic strife, poverty, and Islamic insurgents.
Some quick background. The landlocked Sahelian country has been grappling with relentless violence since a military coup in 2012, which gave an opening to an expansive Islamic insurgency that’s since spilled over into neighboring countries.
Years of instability have given rise to multiple military coups since then, most recently in 2021. Last year, that junta expelled French soldiers deployed there to help quash jihadist violence. And most recently in June, Mali’s junta leaders – who have close ties to Russia’s Wagner Group, whose troops they invited to help keep things “under control” – ordered UN peacekeepers to leave.
The withdrawal is now a massive operation for the UN, which will try to evacuate troops and equipment from a hostile environment overrun by rival armed groups and terror cells. (Consider that the UN recently said that the Islamic State doubled the amount of territory it holds in less than a year.) Making matters worse, neighboring Niger, a transit country, recently underwent its own military coup and can’t be considered a safe passage.A supporter of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reacts as people gather after polling stations were closed in the presidential election in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
What We're Watching: Brazilian runoff, Burkina Faso coup 2.0, Ukraine's response to Russian annexations
Lula’s bittersweet first-round win
Left-wing former President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva won the first round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday but fell short of the outright majority needed to avoid an Oct. 30 runoff that might now be tighter than expected. With almost 97% of the ballots counted, Lula got 47.9% of the vote, 4.2 percentage points more than his nemesis: the far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. Although Lula is still favored to also win in the second round, the result is good news for Bolsonaro because he outperformed the polls, which had him trailing Lula by a wide margin and led many to believe his rival could win it all in the first round. Some experts think that Bolsonaro is consistently underestimated because many Brazilians are hesitant to admit they vote for him — a theory pollsters deny. Lula's narrower-than-expected victory might give Bolsonaro even more fodder to claim that the surveys are rigged against him. Brazil's president has spent months firing up his base with baseless doubts about the integrity of the election process, and no one would be surprised if he tries to pull a 6 de Janeiro if he loses the runoff.
Coups and counter-coups in Burkina Faso
Coups are always messy affairs, but the West African nation of Burkina Faso is taking it to a whole new level. Late on Friday, Col. Ibrahim Traoré announced the removal of Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Damiba — who ousted democratically elected President Roch Kaboré in January — for failing to defeat an Islamist insurgency. The next day, Traoré claimed Damiba was planning a counter-coup with help from former colonial power France. Pas moyen, says Paris, as protesters attacked French interests in the capital, Ouagadougou, before Damiba agreed to step down on Sunday. Meanwhile, Traoré's junta is reaching out to "new partners" to fight the jihadists — possibly code for Russian mercenaries employed by the notorious Wagner Group, already active in neighboring Mali. The Sahel remains a hotbed for Islamist insurgents despite almost a decade of French military presence, which has hurt France's reputation in many of these countries. A Russian-propagated conspiracy theory that the insecurity is a ruse by Paris to protect its interests is also fueling anti-French sentiment in the Sahel, where coups are making a comeback.
Ukraine won’t give up
Ukraine is claiming a strategic victory in one of its four regions recently annexed by Russia. Lyman, a logistical and railway base in the eastern Donetsk province, has been cleared of Russian forces, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin blasted Vladimir Putin’s recent nuclear threats, calling them “irresponsible” and “nuclear saber-rattling.” As for the Russian president and his recent land grab of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk, interesting times are ahead: after holding a ceremony to sign accession treaties, Moscow is expected to process the documents through its parliament, after which Russia will consider the annexations complete. Next up? Russian laws and prosecutors would be imposed on the regions; militias fighting for Russia in Donetsk and Luhansk would be incorporated formally into the Russian military; the Russian ruble would be made the only legal currency; and after an oath of loyalty, residents would officially become Russian citizens. Meanwhile, the leaders of nine NATO countries issued a joint statement on Sunday condemning Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories and pushing NATO to increase military assistance to Kyiv.
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