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Russian President Vladimir Putin lights a candle in memory of the victims of the Crocus City Hall attack, on the day of national mourning in a church at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia March 24, 2024.
Moscow mourns amid international blame game
President Vladimir Putin declared Sunday a national day of mourning for the 137 people killed at the Crocus City Hall outside Moscow on Friday. Several gunmen opened fire at the popular music venue late Friday, injuring another 180 and leaving more than a third of the building on fire. Crews are still sifting through the debris for bodies.
The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack, which came just weeks after Washington warned of possible terrorism at large venues in the Moscow area, which Putin notably ridiculed as fearmongering.
What motivated the militants? In a word: Syria. Russia has been helping the Assad regime ramp up its attacks on Islamic State strongholds in recent months, but the battles have been going on for years, with anger festering over Putin’s support for President Bashar al-Assad.
Still, Putin looks east. Despite the Islamic State’s admission, Putin tried to blame Ukraine. He also blamed “international terrorism” but said the perpetrators — 11 have been arrested, including four of the gunmen — were trying to flee to Ukraine after the attack.
Ukraine has repeatedly denied any role in Friday’s tragedy. Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities intensified over the weekend, with drones hitting Kyiv and Lviv, along the Polish border. While no one was injured, Poland reported that Russian cruise missiles had entered its airspace.
"Pointing the finger at Ukraine and sidelining the ISIS-K angle — at least in official statements — serves the Kremlin’s purpose of rationalizing a potential escalation in its military operations against the adversary," says Eurasia Group analyst Tinatin Japaridze, possibly including a new round of conscription, though Putin did not mention mobilization specifically on Saturday.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaking during a ceremony commemorating the anniversary of the killing of Gen. Qassim Soleimani, at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque in downtown Tehran, Iran, on January 3, 2024.
Islamic State group spoils efforts to blame Israel for deadly Iran blasts
Just as Iranian hardliners sought to pin blame on Israel for Wednesday’s deadly attack in the Islamic Republic, the worst since 1979, the Islamic State group swooped in and claimed responsibility.
On Thursday, the militant group said two of its suicide bombers carried out the Kerman attack, which killed at least 89 people and injured roughly 280 near the grave of Qassim Soleimani, the Iranian general killed by a US drone strike four years ago. Islamic State group, a Sunni terror organization, has also been linked to past terror attacks in Iran, a Shiite-majority country.
Security gaps. The attack was a “massive security failure” for Tehran, and it will be “under intense pressure to respond” to restore faith in its ability to protect the public, says Gregory Brew, an expert on Iran at Eurasia Group.
“There is likely to be a thorough national investigation and a wave of arrests, coupled with action against terrorist groups active inside Iran, with potential spillover into Afghanistan or Syria, where ISIS and its affiliates are known to be active,” Brew adds.
A region on edge. The fatal explosions in Kerman couldn’t have come at a more precarious time. The brutal Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has ratcheted up tensions across the region – particularly between the Jewish state and other Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon. There are growing concerns that the Middle East will soon face a broader, messier conflict.
But the Iranian government’s top priority is survival, so it isn’t particularly interested in becoming entangled in such a fight. And though Islamic State claiming responsibility for the attack “likely won’t stop figures in Iran’s political spectrum from implying an Israeli connection,” Tehran’s desire to avoid a regional conflict means it’s unlikely to formally blame Israel, says Brew.
“Escalation, when it comes, is likely to come through conflict between Israel and the US and Iran's proxies, rather than against Iran itself,” says Brew.
Residents use vehicles to leave the city of Stepanakert following a military operation conducted by Azerbaijani armed forces in Nagorno-Karabakh
Hard Numbers: Armenians flee Nagorno-Karabakh, Terrorists detained in Tehran, Philippines condemns China's coastguard, Assefa races past records
120,000: The leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh announced that 120,000 Armenians will leave Azerbaijan for Armenia, after their fighters were forced to accept a ceasefire last week by the Azerbaijani military. While Azerbaijan has promised to guarantee Armenian rights as the region is integrated, most do not accept this claim.
30: Iranian authorities reported on Sunday that they had defused 30 bombs meant to go off simultaneously in Tehran and detained 28 terrorists linked to Islamic State. Iran’s intelligence ministry claimed that "the perpetrators have a history of being affiliated with Takfiri groups in Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Kurdistan region of Iraq.”
300: The Philippines condemned the Chinese coast guard for installing a 300 metre long “floating barrier” in a disputed area of the South China Sea. The barrier was discovered by Philippine vessels who say it prevents their boats from entering and fishing in the area.
38: Autoworkers’ strikes will ramp up against General Motors and Stellantis, after a first round of pickets made progress with Ford, but not the other big three automakers. The second round will expand strikes to 38 locations across 20 states in all nine regions of the UAW, with a focus on parts distribution centers.
2: Ethiopian runner Tigst Assefa crushed the women’s marathon record, taking more than two minutes off the previous record of 2:14.04 set by Kenya's Brigid Kosgei in Chicago in 2019. Assefa, who also won last year's race, won with a time of 2:11:53.French President Emmanuel Macron at a polling booth during the first round of French parliamentary elections
What We're Watching: France's final round, ISIS leaders caught
Voters decide Macron’s future
On Sunday, France’s election season comes to a close with the final round of parliamentary elections. The big question: Can President Macron’s Ensemble! Party win a majority of the National Assembly’s 577 seats? If so, or if it gets close enough that a few willing partners from other parties can lend votes on individual pieces of legislation, then he’ll have a chance to advance his ambitious reform agenda. If not, his second-term plans will quickly stall. Macron’s best hope is that a few right-wing voters fearful of potential victory for Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s leftist coalition will limit the number of seats it’s able to win, and that a few leftist voters who adamantly oppose far-right opposition leader Marine Le Pen will back Macron’s centrists for control of seats since there’s no left-wing candidate. Macron has long pledged to boost the government’s financial health by pushing the standard retirement age from 62 to 65. But without at least a near-majority, Macron and his prime minister will struggle even to pass basic reforms meant to cut government spending and help businesses weather tough economic times.ISIS leaders captured, but threat grows in Africa
We don’t hear as much these days about ISIS in Syria, where the jihadist group’s clout and territory have significantly diminished since 2019. But the militant group continues to recruit new personnel in the Levant. That’s why the Pentagon continues to keep track of the group’s movements there. On Thursday, U.S. Central Command reported that it had captured Hani Ahmed al-Kurdi – a top ISIS leader and “experienced bomb maker and facilitator” — who was planning ISIS attacks. The US operation – which took place in northwestern Syria close to where former ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi died amid a daring raid by US special forces in 2019 – was a risky move for the Pentagon because it took place far away from US military bases in the country’s east. While ISIS has been somewhat dormant in Syria, its ISIS affiliates in Africa are grabbing the attention of counterterrorism experts, having gained momentum in nearly a dozen countries on the continent, including Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Cameroon. France, which reportedly also captured a senior ISIS militant in Mali in recent days, is set to pull out of the west African nation at a time when Islamist violence is on the rise in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region was reportedly home to half of the ISIS-related deaths worldwide in 2021. France’s counterterrorism efforts, meanwhile, continue in the Sahel, where it “neutralized” 40 militants in Niger on Thursday.
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A Taliban fighter stands guard at the site of an explosion in Kabul.
In spring offensive, the Taliban get a taste of their own medicine
After months of tense calm, a fresh wave of terror attacks by insurgents and airstrikes by Pakistan have killed dozens across Afghanistan, exposing the inability of the Taliban to secure a country already suffering from the world’s worst humanitarian crisis and an economic free fall.
The spate of violence is intense, escalating, and widespread. The attacks have mostly targeted the Hazaras, Afghanistan’s Shia minority, but Sunni Muslims with liberal leanings have also been hit. ISIS-K, the South Asian branch of the Islamic State, has claimed responsibility for most of the attacks. (A bomber from the same group killed 13 US military personnel and 170 Afghans at Kabul airport last August during the last days of America’s military pullout.)
Meanwhile, the Taliban’s scorched-earth policy of pursuing ISIS-K fighters and sympathizers – including the enforcement of collective punishment – has created further unrest and resistance against the Islamist regime, which prefers to ban social media and prohibit females from attending schools and colleges.
Spring is the fighting season in Afghanistan. During the 20 years of US occupation, the Taliban would always step up their attacks against US, NATO, and former Afghan government forces in what was traditionally known as the “spring offensive.” But this time, the Taliban are the ones being challenged by an insurgency even more extremist than their own.
Although the Taliban, most of whom belong to the conservative Deobandi school of Islam, have a history of targeting Afghanistan’s Shias, they proclaimed all Afghans under their protection when they took over last summer. But ISIS-K, which is inspired by the even more conservative Salafist school, is fiercely anti-Shia and regards members of the minority branch of Islam as heretics.
What’s more, ISIS-K is equally intolerant of Sunnis who follow more liberal principles. This harsh bias exposes vast swathes of Afghanistan’s diverse population to be targeted by ISIS-K.
The Taliban have condemned ISIS-K violence. Suhail Shaheen, the group’s international spokesperson and UN ambassador-designate, called the Islamic State affiliate “enemies of humanity and Islam” in an interview with GZERO. He claimed that ISIS-K “are not strong in terms of manpower and military capabilities, and that is why they are focusing on soft targets like mosques.”
But when asked about the adequacy of the Taliban’s own countermeasures, he deflected, responding: “Henceforth, we will boost security in key vulnerable places.”
ISIS-K isn’t just the Taliban’s problem. The US Department of Defense assesses that “ISIS-K could establish an external attack capability against the United States and our allies in twelve to eighteen months, but possibly sooner if the group experiences unanticipated gains in Afghanistan.” Meanwhile, the UN believes that the Taliban’s takeover and the withdrawal of foreign troops have emboldened terrorist groups to “enjoy greater freedom in Afghanistan than at any time in recent history.”
Fighting their own insurgency is just half of the story of the immense security challenge Afghanistan’s rulers face. While the Sunni Taliban may be against ultra-Sunni ISIS-K, they are ideological and political partners with the Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the TTP or the Pakistani Taliban. TTP is a 10,000-strong insurgency battling Afghanistan’s eastern neighbor — and in doing so, creating a uniquely fresh security problem in this war-torn region.
Enter Pakistan. Nuclear-armed, with the world’s fifth-largest military, Islamabad has conducted airstrikes inside Afghan territory, where the Pakistani Taliban enjoy safe-havens. This directly challenges the authority of the Afghan Taliban, which Pakistan has armed, trained, and supported for decades.
The airstrikes have caused massive civilian casualties, triggered anti-Pakistan protests across Afghanistan, and even inspired a rare warning by the Taliban against the Pakistanis. The Pakistani military didn’t comment about attacking what it calls its “brotherly country,” but Islamabad’s compulsions are clear: Pakistan recorded almost 300 terror attacks in 2021, a 56% spike compared to the previous year. The Pakistani Taliban were responsible for most of the incidents, even as Pakistan’s friends, the Afghan Taliban – who also happen to be the TTP’s mentors – were gaining power.
This isn’t the first time the Pakistanis have operated inside Afghanistan. Covert operations by special forces and artillery/small arms used by border forces have been the Pakistanis’ preferred methods to thwart cross-border threats. But the use of airpower by Islamabad against targets on the Afghan mainland has set a new precedent in the decades-long conflict.
“The airstrikes are a big deal and a bad omen for the future,” says Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert at the US Institute of Peace. “It is undeniable that the Afghan Taliban have given the Pakistani Taliban de-facto political asylum — TTP has freedom of movement, freedom to bear arms, freedom to recruit and conduct operations against Pakistan from Afghanistan.”
At the same time, he adds, “the policy logic of the Pakistanis, who have had a relationship with the Afghan Taliban for decades and should have seen this coming, is not obvious. They have moved from using machine guns and mortars to F-16s — almost overnight.”
Mir doesn’t consider Pakistan’s use of airstrikes as a thoughtful approach.
“Where is the escalation ladder? And what is the theory of coercion here? The politics of the Taliban’s support for the TTP and cross-border military action against them is complicated, and requires a more considered response than one-off, poorly directed airstrikes.”
Still, air capability remains essential to fighting in Afghanistan, where the US military often used drones and manned aircraft for reconnaissance and counterterror operations. With no military presence in landlocked Afghanistan, the DOD admits that conducting “operations in Afghanistan from ‘over the horizon’ remains difficult, but not impossible” in a region where terror groups now operate freely.
To fill that void for its own purpose, Pakistan has emerged as an airpower, even willing to risk the ire of its longtime ally, the Taliban, as Afghanistan’s “forever war” keeps on morphing.Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting on the sidelines of the 11th BRICS Summit, in Brasilia, Brazil November 13, 2019.
Putin meets Xi, US takes out ISIS leader, Costa Rica votes
Putin-Xi Olympic meeting. “It's probably the most important geopolitical summit we've had in years,” says Ian Bremmer. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet on Friday in Beijing, where Putin will also attend the Winter Olympics inauguration. The two have a lot to discuss in their first in-person meeting in two years, including tensions over Ukraine, trade, and lunar exploration. Putin will likely assure Xi that Russian oil and gas will continue flowing to China. Xi, meanwhile, is expected to support Russia’s demand that NATO halt its eastward expansion. China’s leader sees the Ukraine crisis as a welcome distraction from COVID and Xinjiang. On the other hand, Xi doesn’t want a war that will hurt the economy, so he would prefer that Putin find a diplomatic resolution.
US targets ISIS leader. President Biden announced Thursday that the US conducted a pre-dawn operation in northern Syria that took out ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi. Al-Qurayshi, who replaced Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as ISIS leader in 2019, reportedly detonated a suicide vest as the Americans moved in, killing himself and family members. The operation was a rare tactical move by the Biden administration, which has veered away from getting embroiled further in Middle East conflicts. The timing is significant as it comes after an ISIS prison raid and bid to free some 12,000 ISIS members and their families. This stoked fears that the Islamic State, defeated in 2019, might be making a comeback. But some analysts believe that while ISIS sleeper cells have launched many attacks in recent years and remain active in some areas, the group’s reach and clout are still limited.
Costa Rica’s wide-open election. Voters in the 5-million strong Central American country head to the polls Sunday for a presidential election featuring more than two dozen candidates. The main concerns for Ticos, as Costa Ricans are known, are unemployment — which is topping 14% — and rampant corruption. Leading the pack with 17% support in the polls is former President José Maria Figueres, a centrist who ran the country in the 1990s. Just behind him are conservative former VP Lineth Saborío and Fabricio Alvarado, a populist evangelical preacher. But more than a third of voters are still undecided and no candidate even comes close to getting the 40% needed to avoid a runoff, so a second round in April is all but assured. A question looms over the fate of Costa Rica’s $1.8 billion IMF deal, which was negotiated by the current administration. Our friends at Eurasia Group say frontrunner Figueres would leave the pact alone, while Saborío and Alvarado, who oppose the IMF’s demand to raise taxes, would try to revise it.What We’re Watching: Russian and NATO intentions, US strikes Syrian prison, UAE-Houthi escalation
Russian and NATO intentions.To prepare to meet a perceived military threat, planners try to understand both the intentions and the capabilities of the other side. Russia says it does not intend to invade Ukraine, but NATO planners can see it has built the capability for an attack by amassing 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. In response, the alliance has decided to underline its own capacities. On Monday, NATO announced it had put troops on high alert and ordered the reinforcement of Eastern Europe with additional ships and fighter jets. It has beefed up defense of the Baltic states and is publicly mulling the idea of deploying more troops to southeastern Europe. NATO commanders hope this shift in the alliance’s own capabilities will send Moscow a clear message: Any aggressive military action taken by Russia will come at a steep cost for Moscow. The UK government claims to have exposed a Russian plot to install a pro-Kremlin leader in power in Kyiv in hopes of forcing Russia to abort any such plan. The perceived Russian threat has also reinvigorated debate within Sweden and Finland about possible membership in NATO for those countries. In sum, both sides have boosted their capabilities, and bystanders are considering doing the same. It’s Russian and NATO intentions that Ukraine, and the rest of us, will be watching.
ISIS tries a jailbreak. The Pentagon has launched a series of air raids on a prison in northeast Syria that was recently attacked by Islamic State fighters who hoped to free comrades imprisoned there. The raids marked a rare intervention by the US military, which has focused its operations in the area mainly on advising and training the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces, which was largely responsible for the Islamic State’s territorial defeat in 2019. The US bombing came four days after ISIS fighters stormed the prison where about 12,000 of their comrades and family members have been held since the last ISIS stronghold fell. At least 120 people have been killed since clashes broke out on Thursday. Though ISIS no longer holds much territory in Iraq or Syria, Islamic State sleeper cells have launched attacks in recent years and remain active in some areas. The US, meanwhile, has 900 troops stationed in northeast Syria to support Kurdish-affiliated militant groups, though they rarely engage directly with ISIS fighters.
More missiles rain on the UAE. For the second time in a week, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have fired rockets from Yemen toward Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s capital. The missiles are part of a deadly recent escalation in Yemen’s eight-year civil war. In a rare move, the Houthis recently launched a drone attack on oil tankers at the Abu Dhabi port, killing at least three people. The UAE’s government, which supports a Saudi-led coalition against the rebels, responded to the first Houthi attack with a series of attacks on Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, that killed at least 70 people. The UAE has tried to reduce its involvement in this conflict in recent years, but it now finds itself ensnared in an intensifying confrontation with the rebels. Yemen’s war is partly a proxy battle between regional foes Iran and Saudi Arabia, and this latest expansion of hostilities comes just as the two rivals were exploring an unprecedented detente. We’re watching to see whether this ongoing escalation will derail their progress.Protesters gather during the Women's March 4 Justice in Melbourne.
What We’re Watching: Australian women demand change, Mexico’s immigration crackdown, US vs ISIS in Mozambique
Australian women are fed up: Australia's conservative government is facing intense scrutiny after tens of thousands of women marched across the country earlier this week to protest sexual abuse and harassment, which they say is rife — including within the "old boys' club" of politicians in Canberra. The protests follow a spate of recent rape allegations made by former staffers against powerful Canberra insiders, including the sitting Attorney General Christian Porter. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has come under fire for siding with Porter, who vehemently denies the decades-old rape allegations, and for initially refusing to back a thorough investigation. The country's next federal election isn't until next year (though it could come sooner) but the opposition Labour Party has already benefited from the outrage at Morrison's Liberal party, and is pulling ahead in the polls.
Mexico cracks down on US-bound migrants: In the weeks after US President Joe Biden took office, Mexican authorities detained more than a thousand migrants from Central America who were making their way towards the US. Biden has pledged to make his immigration policy more humane than his predecessor's — he has stopped the deportation of unaccompanied minors and allowed asylum seekers to remain in the US while their petitions are processed. But he is now contending with a surge of arrivals that officials say is now the worst crisis along the US southern border in decades. Last month, US border agents detained or expelled the highest number of people in two years. The US has pledged to do more to address the violence and poverty that are driving more and more people to flee their homes in countries like Honduras and El Salvador. But in the meantime, the pressure is mounting not only on Washington, but also on Mexico, which is concerned about large numbers of undocumented migrants crossing its territory, particularly if they are being smuggled by criminal gangs.
US helps Mozambique fight ISIS: US special forces are training Mozambican marines as part of the local military's latest push to expel Islamic State-allied militants who control vast swaths of northern Cabo Delgado province. The insurgency has caused a major humanitarian crisis: more than 2,500 people have been killed and over 700,000 have fled their homes over the past four years, while kids as young as 11 have been beheaded by the insurgents, according to Save the Children. But for Mozambique it's also about the cash: the insurgents control a key port with access to the country's lucrative offshore natural gas reserves. Meanwhile, as neighboring countries like Tanzania watch the ISIS foothold nervously, Maputo is running out of options: when Russian mercenaries didn't get the job done, the Mozambicans then turned to South African hired guns, and finally to the EU (which offered training but no boots on the ground). Now it's America's turn.