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Does Europe face a resurging terrorist threat after the Moscow attack?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
Is the terrorist threat to Europe back after what happened in Moscow?Well, the bad news is, yes, it's there. There's no question about it. It's still coming out. Central Asia, Afghanistan. We have a very disturbing situation in part of Africa with ISIS gaining ground in different ways, so not directly threatening Europe so far. And we should not forget that we have a situation in the Middle East with Gaza and all of the emotions that that is leading to, that is bound to be a recruitment possibility for these particular groups. The good news, if there is any, is of course that evidently the Americans were able to pick up advance warning of this particular terrorist attack. And that shows that we have intelligence capabilities combined with different countries that could give us somewhat more security than perhaps we had in the past. The bad news in this particular situation is, of course, the Russian authorities didn't listen and very many innocent Russians had to pay a very heavy price for that.
We have to learn all of these particular lessons as we move ahead.
Russian President Vladimir Putin lights a candle in memory of the victims of the Crocus City Hall attack, on the day of national mourning in a church at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia March 24, 2024.
Moscow mourns amid international blame game
President Vladimir Putin declared Sunday a national day of mourning for the 137 people killed at the Crocus City Hall outside Moscow on Friday. Several gunmen opened fire at the popular music venue late Friday, injuring another 180 and leaving more than a third of the building on fire. Crews are still sifting through the debris for bodies.
The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack, which came just weeks after Washington warned of possible terrorism at large venues in the Moscow area, which Putin notably ridiculed as fearmongering.
What motivated the militants? In a word: Syria. Russia has been helping the Assad regime ramp up its attacks on Islamic State strongholds in recent months, but the battles have been going on for years, with anger festering over Putin’s support for President Bashar al-Assad.
Still, Putin looks east. Despite the Islamic State’s admission, Putin tried to blame Ukraine. He also blamed “international terrorism” but said the perpetrators — 11 have been arrested, including four of the gunmen — were trying to flee to Ukraine after the attack.
Ukraine has repeatedly denied any role in Friday’s tragedy. Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities intensified over the weekend, with drones hitting Kyiv and Lviv, along the Polish border. While no one was injured, Poland reported that Russian cruise missiles had entered its airspace.
"Pointing the finger at Ukraine and sidelining the ISIS-K angle — at least in official statements — serves the Kremlin’s purpose of rationalizing a potential escalation in its military operations against the adversary," says Eurasia Group analyst Tinatin Japaridze, possibly including a new round of conscription, though Putin did not mention mobilization specifically on Saturday.
The pro-Palestine Japanese militants who once attacked Israel
Why had militants from halfway around the world come to Israel to carry out a terrorist attack like this? And what did a young woman from Tokyo known as “The Empress of Terror” have to do with it? This is the story of the Lod Airport Massacre, one of the most bizarre chapters in the long history of violence between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Shinzo Abe’s goal of militarization & PM Kishida’s “golden opportunity” to reform Japan ›
- Iran-backed Houthi rebels drum up trouble in the Red Sea ›
- Is Hezbollah losing influence in Lebanon? Kim Ghattas on Lebanese divisions & unity ›
- Ian Explains: How Hezbollah became so powerful in Lebanon ›
- Will Hezbollah enter the Israel-Hamas conflict or not? ›
Scene of the terrorist knife attack near the Bir Hakeim bridge and Quai de Grenelle, where one German tourist was killed, and two others were injured in Paris late Saturday.
Hard Numbers: Deadly terror attack in Paris, troubled South China Sea waters, migrants in English Channel, COP28 methane plans, twins for 70-year-old mom
3: A 26-year-old French national who had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State attacked three people near the Eiffel Tower in Paris late Saturday, killing a German tourist and leaving two others, including a British man, wounded. President Emmanuel Macron called the incident "a terrorist attack."
135: More than 135 Chinese vessels “swarmed” the Julian Felipe reef off the coast of the Philippines in the South China Sea on Sunday. China and the Philippines have been involved in an increasing number of such incidents, as China aggressively asserts its claim to the sea under its so-called nine-dash line.
190: French authorities rescued 190 migrants off the coast of Calais in northern France over the weekend. The migrants were trying to cross the English Channel on dinghies to reach Britain, but authorities did not specify from which country the migrants had originally come.
30: At this week’s COP28 meeting in the UAE, the Biden administration unveiled final rules aimed at reducing the US oil and gas industry’s release of methane to help in the fight against climate change. Nations attending the summit had to detail how they will cut methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030.
70:A 70-year-old Ugandan woman has become the oldest woman in Africa to give birth. Safina Namukwaya delivered a boy and a girl on Wednesday by cesarean section after conceiving through IVF. Born at 34 weeks' gestation, the babies are healthy and weigh 2 kilograms each. They were Namukwaya’s second delivery in three years, following the birth of a girl in 2020.Canada's Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre speaks in the House of Commons.
Poilievre is polling well despite crying "terror"
The political exchange was sparked when a 56-year-old New York man set out to attend a Kiss concert, but instead ended up driving his Bentley at high speed into a barrier at the border crossing, going airborne and exploding on impact, killing him and his wife.
Fox News was quick to report that it was believed to be a terrorist attack, and Republicans were quick to link it to Biden’s border policies. On Twitter, Ted Cruz called it a terrorist attack, as did GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who has called for a wall along the northern border.
In Canada’s House of Commons, before the facts were established, Poilievre asked about reports that the incident was linked to terrorism. After it became clear it had nothing to do with terrorists, the Liberals accused him of jumping to conclusions. When he was asked about it, Poilievre berated the reporter who posed the question, which commentators, including this writer, thought went too far. He also came under harsh criticism for voting against a Canada-Ukraine free trade deal and delivering a misleading explanation for the vote.
Both incidents gave Liberals the opportunity to attack him as dishonest, mean, and a Trumpy northerner, perhaps hoping for make a comeback in the polls. So far, that has not happened. The most recent poll from Nanos shows the Liberals so far behind that they are tied with the NDP, which could put pressure on the smaller party to force an early election. Seat projections show that the NDP would pick up seats if there was an election today, but that’s no guarantee since their voters might not like to see the NDP bring down Trudeau, opening a path to a Poilievre government.Former Prime Minister of New Zealand and special envoy for the Christchurch Appeal Jacinda Ardern arrives at the 5th Christchurch Appeal Summit, co-chaired by her and French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris, on Nov. 10, 2023.
Call to crack down on terrorist content
OpenAI and Anthropic, two of AI’s biggest startups, signed on to the Christchurch Call to Action at a summit in Paris on Friday, pledging to suppress terrorist content. The perpetrator of the Christchurch shooting was reportedly radicalized by far-right content on Facebook and YouTube, and he livestreamed the attack on Facebook.
While the companies have agreed to “regular and transparent public reporting” about their efforts, the commitment is voluntary — meaning they won’t face real consequences for any failures to comply. Still, it’s a strong signal that the battle against online extremism, which started with social media companies, is now coming for AI companies.
Under US law, internet companies are generally protected from legal liability under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The issue was deflected by the Supreme Court last year in two terrorism-related cases, with the Justices ruling that the plaintiffs didn’t have standing to sue Google and Twitter under US anti-terrorism laws. But there’s a rich debate brewing as to whether Section 230 protects AI chatbots like ChatGPT, a question that’s bound to wind up in court. Sen. Ron Wyden, one of the authors of Section 230, has called AI “unchartered territory” for the law.Police officers patrol in the aftermath of a shooting, at the road to Banjska village, Kosovo September 24, 2023.
Trouble brews in the Balkans
Is Europe’s tinderbox once again set to explode?
Tensions are running high in Kosovo after three people were killed in a gun battle in a monastery in Leposavic, near the Serbian border. About thirty armed men stormed the building following a battle with police at a road blockade near the village of Banska, in which one officer was killed. Police managed to regain control of the monastery, arrested 6 gunmen, and found "an “extraordinarily large amount of weaponry and ammunition, explosives.”
According to Prime Minister Albin Kurti, police were attacked by "professionals, with military and police background" and police said they had used "an arsenal of firearms, including hand grenades and shoulder-fired missiles.” Kurti blamed "Serbia-sponsored criminals" for the attack. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucicspoke later on Sunday, condemned the attack but accused the Kosovo authorities of “brutal” treatment of the Kosovo Serbs.
Violence has been escalating following the Kosovo government’s decision to install ethnic Albanian mayors in four Serb-majority municipalities in May. Demonstrations ensued, including one in which thirty NATO peacekeepers were injured.
This latest incident comes one week after EU-mediated talks designed to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province ended in stalemate. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008, a decade after a bloody war with Serbia that claimed 10,000 lives, but Belgrade has since refused to recognize the country.
As a means of cooling the temperature, Brussels warned both countries that unless they put their differences aside and abide by the EU’s ten-point plan to end the latest round of tensions, they will not be allowed entry into the EU. If what happened this weekend is any indication, however, that goal is still a long way off.
Hearing the Christchurch Call
After a terrorist attack on a mosque in Christchurch, New Zealand, was live-streamed on the internet in 2019, the Christchurch Call was launched to counter the increasing weaponization of the internet and to ensure that emerging tech is harnessed for good.
Since its inception, the Christchurch Call has evolved to include more than 120 government and private sector stakeholders. The organization, pioneered by the French and New Zealand governments, will hold its next major summit at the Paris Peace Forum in November.
Dame Jacinda Ardern, former Prime Minister of New Zealand who led the response to the Christchurch attack; Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; and Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft sat down with CNN’s Rahel Solomon for a Global Stage livestream on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. The event was hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft.
Reflecting on the catastrophic attack that prompted the formation of the Call and its mission, Dame Ardern recalled how, on that day, ”I reached for my phone to be able to share that message on a social media platform, I saw the live stream.” She notes how that became a galvanizing moment: In the “aftermath of that period, we were absolutely determined … we had the attention of social media platforms in particular to do something that would try and prevent any other nation from having that experience again.”
That led to the formation of the organization in a mere eight-week period, Ardern said. But identifying hate speech and extremism online that can fuel violence is no small feat, Ardern acknowledges, adding that while the goal can indeed appear “lofty,” the group’s focus is on “setting expectations” around what should and shouldn’t be tolerated online.
But what did tech companies learn from the Christchurch experience about their own roles in moderating content, overseeing algorithms, and mitigating potential radicalization and violence?
One major development that came out of the Christchurch Call, Smith notes, is what’s known as a content incident protocol. “Basically, you have the tech companies and governments and others literally on call like doctors being summoned to the emergency room at tech companies and in governments so that the moment there is such a shooting, everybody immediately is alerted.”
Emerging technologies – most notably artificial intelligence – mean that the Christchurch Call must remain nimble in the face of new threats. Still, Ardern says that’s not necessarily a bad thing because AI presents both challenges and opportunities for the organization. “On the one hand we may see an additional contribution from AI to our ability to better manage content moderation that may be an upside,” she says. But “a downside,” she notes, “is that we may see it continue to contribute to or expand on some of the disinformation which contributes to radicalization.”
Bremmer shared this view of AI, calling it both “a tool of extraordinary productivity and growth, indeed globalization 2.0,” while also acknowledging the threat of disinformation proliferation: “Fundamental to a democratic society, an open society, a civil society, fundamental to human rights and the United Nations Charter is the idea that people are able to exchange information that they know is true, that they know is real,” he says.
Four years after the Christchurch attack, there is indeed a sense of urgency surrounding the need for governments to better understand emerging technologies and their powers over politics and society. “Governments understand that this is systemic, it is transformative, and they're not ready,” Bremmer says, adding that “they don't have the expertise, they don't have the resources, and we don't yet have the architecture … we're late!”