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New Year's Day terror attacks highlight America's divisions
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take for you, a happy New Year, I wish that I could say that 2025 was getting off to a smoother start, clearly not the case, certainly not in my country.
Two terrorist attacks in the early hours of the first day of the year, in New Orleans, back where I went to school, Tulane University. 14 dead, dozens injured in a terrorist attack right on Bourbon Street, as all the revelers were celebrating. And then, hours later, Las Vegas, the Trump International Hotel, a Cybertruck carrying fireworks and gas canisters, essentially a bomb, a driver killed himself before blowing up his truck. Nobody else killed, lots of injuries, could have been a lot worse. Everyone's talking about potential connections, they use the same app to rent the vehicles, they're both US citizens, one's a veteran, one's active, one was active in the US Forces, both served in Afghanistan, were even on the same base.
No evidence at all that they knew each other, and certainly no evidence that the attacks were in any way coordinated. In fact, if you look at some of the posts and other things made by the New Orleans bomber, out of Texas, was thinking about attacking friends and family before he was worried about the media receptivity on that. Far more likely both of these were lone wolf attacks. But there are some important things to point out, like if you're angry and disillusioned with the US, its system, its leaders, its values or lack thereof, and you want to attack the excesses of it, decadence of the United States in your view, and you want to have great symbolism, January 1 gets you there, Bourbon Street in New Orleans, and Las Vegas are pretty much ground zero, so in that regard, not a coincidence at all.
A couple of lone wolves with the same sort of animus, in terms of why they would take their grievances out in the most public way, going after Trump and Elon, ditto, and of course, we've already seen a bunch of this in the most disastrous potential ways with the attempted assassinations against now President-elect Trump, one of which was this close, and almost happened, could easily have happened, and we'd be having very different conversations if that were the case right now. I'm thinking a lot about the symbolism, a lot about the impact, because the coverage in the media and on social media about these terrorist attacks is so overwhelmingly about trying to figure out who's to blame, which team, who's responsible? Is this on the right or on the left? Were these people outraged with Trump or were they Trump supporters? Were they white nationalists? Were they Americans? Were they not Americans? Were they Muslim extremists? All of that.
When, of course, the most important thing to focus on are the victims. The most important thing to focus on is the outrage that these attacks are occurring, and that innocent citizens, civilians are getting killed, are getting injured, that their families are suffering, that the impact on the communities, and that we're not apparently able to prevent them. That is the focus that we should have, and it couldn't be more different in that regard from 911, where the response was to rally around the flag. The response was to rally around the president, who had over 90% approval ratings in the weeks after those attacks, wasn't particularly popular beforehand. And what changed between those days, well, what changed was that the average American felt very patriotic and felt that all Americans were ultimately on the same side, on the same team.
And that is not where we are right now. Right now, the average American feels that the primary enemies are inside the country, supporting their political enemies, whoever they happen to be. And we are seeing this especially on social media, we're seeing this with so much disinformation, we're also seeing it, frankly, with President-elect Trump, who was immediately talking about, well, this was a threat from outside the country, and it's because we're not defending the border, and it's Biden, and he's the biggest disaster, and he's not protecting, as opposed to Biden is the American president, Trump is about to be the American president, they're both the leaders that deserve to be listened to, and need to be rallied behind in a time of crisis. Very far from that, you can't imagine a US really getting over 50% approval right now, with a good percentage of the remaining 50% thinking that that president is a core part of the problem.
And that means, number one, that these attacks are likely to do more to drive Americans apart than to bring them together. Secondly, that there's going to be much more politicization that comes on the back of these attacks, and talking about how certain parts of the US public is not patriotic. So, for example, when the first New Orleans attacks occurred, in New York City, there were some significant demonstrations, obviously completely unrelated, that were pro-Palestinian demonstrations in the US. A lot of response to that was these people need to be surveilled, they're calling for intifada, they are a part of the problem. When, in reality, they're American citizens expressing freedom of speech, just like Trump supporters or American citizens expressing freedom of speech, and they're all the same Americans. But a lot of Americans don't feel that way. And that, I think, is being maximized, it's being, the algorithms are driving more of that hate, more of that anger, more of that anxiety.
And the media coverage, which is so divided, is also driving that, depending on what and who you're watching and focusing on ensuring that the views that you bring into this are only going to be strengthened, and the enemy's views are going to be disparaged. That's where we are, that's how we're responding to tragedies, two tragedies, as we kick off 2025. I'd like to believe that these are solvable, addressable problems, and that we can create more of a community, create more of a civil society in the United States, but in the near term, the trend is not in that direction, the trend is indeed very far in the other direction.
And that's something that I think we're going to be paying attention to and talking about for some time to come. So, I hope that you and your families had a restful and peaceful and Happy New Year, but we've got a lot of work to do, and we'll do our best to honestly and without fear or favor, continue to analyze that for you, and talk about it, and focus over the course of the year. And that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Ian Explains: Why America is bad at keeping secrets
Here’s a secret: the US government’s system for classifying documents doesn’t work very well, and it hasn’t for decades. If you follow the news, you’ve likely seen stories a-plenty about former President Donald Trump’s penchant for holding onto classified documents, not to mention less egregious examples like former Vice President Mike Pence and current President Joe Biden doing the same. But what you might not know is that the US government has a tortured history of overclassifying information, sometimes with disastrous results.
The 9/11 Commission found that a lack of information-sharing between agencies like the CIA, the FBI, and the NSA prevented the US government from foiling the terrorist attacks that day. A key reason for that failure was the over-classification of information. An estimated 50 million documents are classified each year, though the exact number is unknown—not because it’s classified, but because the government just can’t keep track of it all. In the words of former US Solicitor General Erwin Griswold, some “secrets are not worth keeping.”
It’s difficult for the American public to know what its government is up to if so much of its work is classified. It also forces journalists to weigh the risks of disclosing information to the public against the risk of prosecution under the Espionage Act.
There are, of course, plenty of good and important reasons to classify information. We don’t want Kim Jong Un or Ayatollah Khamenei to get their hands on US nuclear codes. But beyond national security concerns, a big contributor to over-classification comes down to incentives—If you’re a government employee, the risk of classifying something that doesn’t need to be classified is low, but if you un-classify something that you shouldn’t, you're in trouble. It’s also about control. Classification protects the government against revelations of mistakes, false predictions, or other embarrassments that the rest of us like to call “accountability.”
Watch Ian Explains for the full breakdown, and for more on the US, watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.