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Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol along a road in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.
India and Pakistan inch toward a major clash
Nerves are fraught throughout Pakistan after authorities said Wednesday they have “credible intelligence” that India plans to launch military strikes on its soil by Friday, fueling fears of an outright clash between the two nuclear-armed archrivals. Troops from both sides have been exchanging fire in the disputed territory of Kashmir since a terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled section killed 26 civilians last Tuesday. Both China and the US are calling for restraint.
Tensions are spiraling rapidly. India closed its airspace to Pakistan on Wednesday and ordered nearly all Pakistani citizens to leave the country last week. Pakistan – while denying any involvement in the attacks – also canceled visas last week for most Indian citizens in retaliation. The scenes of rapid flight evoked painful memories of the 1947 Partition when Hindus in Pakistan and Muslims in India fled bloody ethnic massacres in the newly formed nations.
How bad could it get? The two countries have had two major wars, in 1965 and 1971, both of which India won, in the latter case quite decisively. In the ensuing decades, however, India has utterly outstripped Pakistan economically, militarily, and diplomatically, which means that Islamabad’s chances of prevailing in a conventional confrontation are very slim.
The balance of power shifted nonetheless when Pakistan developed nuclear weapons in 1972 to match those that India built in 1967. This has prevented a full-scale attack ever since. When the two sides went to war in 1999, hostilities lasted just over two months and were geographically limited to the Himalayas. If New Delhi should be foolish enough to existentially threaten its neighbor, it raises the grim – albeit unlikely – prospect of a nuclear exchange.
We’re watching for a limited engagement, but we’re far from sanguine about the risks.
71 Islamist militants have been killed along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in recent days.
The Graphic Truth: Pakistan kills Afghan militants
Pakistan accused the infiltrators of working for the Pakistani Taliban, a sister terrorist organization to the group that now controls Afghanistan. Islamabad says the Pakistani Taliban is orchestrating a campaign of violence that has rocked the country in recent months with high-profile bombings and shootings
Pakistan’s information minister claimed that India was encouraging the Taliban to strike in a bid to distract Islamabad’s forces from a simultaneous confrontation in Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan partially occupy the disputed mountain region and have traded fire in small skirmishes in recent days after Islamist militants killed 26 civilians last week in the largest terrorist attack to hit the region in years. Indian forces have detained over 1,500 people and destroyed several houses linked to alleged perpetrators. China, a major ally of Pakistan’s, is urging restraint on both sides.
Students shout slogans and burn an effigy to protest the Pahalgam terror attack in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 24, 2025. On April 22, a devastating terrorist attack occurs in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 tourists.
India threatens Pakistan’s water
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has blamed Pakistan for Tuesday’s deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, and he’s takenaggressive action against its government. The most striking of these moves is a decision to suspend theIndus Waters Treaty, which sets terms for the sharing of water that flows from the Indus River and its tributaries from India into Pakistan.
Pakistanis depend on water from the Indus for drinking, farming, and hydropower. Some80% of Pakistan’s water comes from these rivers, and agriculture is the only source of income for 70% of its rural population.
Water-sharing between the two countries has generated controversy in recent years. In particular, Pakistan charges that India’sconstruction of dams upstream is cheating Pakistan of much-needed volumes of water.
This is the first time the treaty has been suspended, despite multiple wars between the two nuclear-armed neighbors since the Indus River agreement, brokered by the World Bank, was signed in September 1960. Indian officials threatened to suspend the treaty following a suicide bombing in 2019, but Modi’s government didn’t follow through.
There is no evidence yet that India is restricting the flow of water, but Pakistan’s government says it will treat any diversion of water as an act of war.
Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa speaks during a Ministerial formation of the government of the Syrian Arab Republic, in Damascus, Syria, on March 29, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Syria gets new Cabinet, US steps up Houthi strikes, Top US vaccine official resigns, Hamas offers hostages for ceasefire, Trump eyes third term, Kashmir violence turns deadly, Trump shrugs off high car prices
23: Syria has a new transitional Cabinet. Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa swore in his new 23-member team on Saturday, replacing caretakers who had been in those roles since former President Bashar Assad was ousted in December. While the new Cabinet is largely filled with al-Sharaa allies, it is religiously and ethnically diverse, a sign that Syria is moving forward to rebuild in the post-Assad and post-civil war era.
1: At least one person was killed amid suspected US strikes against Yemen’s Houthis on Saturday. According to the Associated Press, the Trump administration has embarked on an expanded anti-Houthi campaign in recent days, targeting ranking rebel personnel. Satellite photos also reportedly show an airstrip off Yemen that looks prepared to accept flights and B-2 bombers.
100,000: The FDA’s top vaccine official resigned on Friday after being told he could quit or be fired. Dr. Peter Marks stressed that he was worried that Robert F. Kennedy’s aggressive stance on vaccination would dangerously undermine public confidence in vaccines against common diseases such as measles, which is spreading in the US and has “killed more than 100,000 unvaccinated children last year in Africa and Asia.” An HHS spokesperson, meanwhile, said Friday that Dr. Marks didn’t belong at the FDA if he was not committed to supporting the “restoration of science to its golden standard and advocate for radical transparency.”
5-50: On Saturday, Hamas offered to release 5 hostages during the three-day Muslim holiday Eid al-Fitr, which began Sunday, to secure a 50-day ceasefire. The offer came in response to a proposal the militants received from Egypt and Qatar. Israel offered a counterproposal in coordination with Washington, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is demanding the release of 10 of the remaining 24 hostages believed to still be alive.
3: US President Donald Trump mused on Sunday that he’s not joking about finding “methods” to serve a third term, including being elected VP and then having the president resign to become president by succession. While some Trump loyalists like Steve Bannon believe a third term might be possible, constitutional experts warn there’s no “one weird trick” to bypass the 22nd Amendment, which limits presidents to two elected terms.
6: Four police officers and two suspected rebels — dubbed terrorists for their opposition to Indian rule — were reportedly killed Saturday morning in Jammu and Kashmir. Thousands of people have died in battles between rebels and Indian security forces over the past few decades, but violence has lessened in recent years.
15,000: How much will US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico drive up car prices? Goldman Sachs estimates a bump of between $5,000 and $15,000 per vehicle, depending on the brand and model. But Trump told NBC News on Saturday that he “couldn’t care less” if car prices soared, maintaining that manufacturers should build their vehicles in the US.
Satellite image of Hurricane Milton as of 8 p.m., on Oct. 8, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Florida braces for Milton, First survey of transgender US students, TikTok faces new legal challenges, BJP defeated in Kashmir, Dominican Republic escalates deportations
9: Millions have boarded up, sandbagged, and evacuated their homes in Florida this week as Hurricane Milton barrels through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Sunshine State. Deemed a Category 5 storm on Tuesday, with winds reaching speeds of up to 180 mph, Milton is expected to weaken slightly but still bring an "extremely life-threatening situation" when it makes landfall Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the Federal Emergency Management Agency – still busy with the impact of last month’s Hurricane Helene – reported this week that only 9% of its personnel, or 1,217 staffers, were available to help with new disaster relief efforts.
3.3: About 3.3% of US high school students identify as transgender, according to a new survey. The first-of-its-kind study also revealed 2.2% of students are questioning their gender identity. About 10% of transgender students reported suicide attempts, 10 times that of cisgender boys. Transgender issues are at the center of America’s culture wars – while most Americans favor discrimination protections for transgender people, support for restrictions on transgender care and education is significantly higher among Republicans than among Democrats.
13: TikTok is in legal hot water again as 13 US states and the District of Columbia have filed a lawsuit against the short-form video platform alleging that it breaks US consumer protection laws and has exacerbated a mental health crisis among teenagers. The suit comes as TikTok faces the prospect of being banned outright in the US next January unless it cuts ties with its China-based parent company ByteDance.
42: An alliance committed to restoring Kashmir’s autonomy within India won the region’s elections, which culminated on Oct. 8, taking 48 of the local legislature’s 90 seats. The vote was the first since Kashmir was stripped of its special status in 2019 by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist BJP party won just 29 seats in the Kashmir election. However, the BJP also looked set to win a surprise victory in the state of Haryana – a result that the opposition Congress party is contesting.
7,000: The Dominican Republic has deported at least 4,900 Haitians since last Thursday alone. The move is part of a new policy in which the Dominican government says it will deport up to 10,000 undocumented migrants weekly amid rising concerns about crime and lawlessness. The government of Haiti, which is currently mired in a severe political, economic, and humanitarian crisis, has blasted the deportations as “an affront to human dignity.”
Security personnel stand guard ahead of the counting of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, at Polytechnic College in Jammu on Monday.
Exit polls point toward a loss for Modi in Kashmir
In fairness to the BJP, the elections went off without any notable violence over its three voting phases between Sept. 18 and Oct. 1. Majority-Muslim Kashmir has been disputed between India and Pakistan since 1947, and a Pakistan-backed insurgency erupted in 1989, though Islamabad started withdrawing support in 2004. When New Delhi took the territory under direct control and revoked its state status in 2019, it flooded the region with troops and carried out mass arrests of separatists, and insurgency violence fell to all-time lows.
But exit polls show the BJP will probably win only about 30 of the 90 seats in the legislature. Their main rival in New Delhi, the Indian National Congress, allied with the local Jammu and Kashmir National Conference party but looks likely to fall short of a majority as well, at around 43 seats. So control will come down to who can woo enough seats from minority parties and the five seats that can be appointed by the Lt. Governor.
We’re watching how the horse trading shakes out and whether the BJP chooses to take a softer touch after the political rebuke.
Indian paramilitary soldiers stand alert while Jammu and Kashmir National Conference candidate Mubarak Gul arrives to file his nomination papers for assembly elections in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on September 2, 2024.
Can Kashmiri voters keep Modi’s party out of control in local assembly?
The Indian-occupied region of Kashmir kicks off its first phase of elections on Wednesday for its own truncated government and local legislative assembly, as New Delhi reintroduces some local authority after taking direct control in 2019. Kashmiris, the majority of whom are Muslim, have frequently boycotted elections in the past to protest Indian occupation but reportedly plan to participate this time to attempt to deny the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party control.
Who are the main players? Besides the BJP, which enjoys support from the regional Hindu minority, especially around the city of Jammu, the local People’s Democratic Party and National Congress party are the main contenders. PDP was in coalition with BJP from the last election in 2014 to 2018, while NC has allied with the Indian National Congress, BJP’s main rival on the national level. In addition, 145 independent candidates have registered – a record high — which some Kashmiris say is due to the BJP attempting to dilute the opposition vote. Vote counting is scheduled for Oct. 8, after two additional phases on Sept. 25 and Oct. 1.
The new assembly will have partial control over social policy like education, culture and taxation but not over the police, and it will not enjoy the special privileges it had prior to 2019.
The upshot? If Kashmiri parties can form a governing coalition, they will still be very limited in what legislation they can pass, but it may reduce the appeal of armed insurrection for disaffected youth. Violence in the Vale of Kashmir, which India accuses Pakistan of supporting, has already cost tens of thousands of lives, and we’re watching whether the ballot might prove mightier than the bullet.Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra attends a press conference at the Pheu Thai party headquarters after the royal endorsement ceremony. Paetongtarn Shinawatra become the 31th Prime Minister and the second female Prime Minister of Thailand after her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra.
Hard Numbers: New PM in Bangkok, New elections in Kashmir, New copper in Afghanistan, New kidnappings in Nigeria, New fines for X in Brazil
37: Thailand now has its youngest-ever prime minister, with 37-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter and niece of former PMs Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra, respectively, at the helm. Paetongtarn – who received the royal endorsement on Sunday – faces a tough road ahead, with Thai voters struggling amid a sluggish economy and chaffing after nearly a decade of military meddling in politics, including for her appointment.
10: Voters in Indian-controlled Kashmir will vote for a state assembly for the first time in 10 years starting next month, Indian authorities announced Friday. But the news isn’t going over well in Srinagar, with one local politician saying “This isn’t democracy, it’s a mockery.” The new local assembly will only have nominal control over education and cultural policy, while all other legislation will continue to come from New Delhi. Kashmiri militants, with backing from Pakistan and international terrorist networks, have resisted Indian occupation since 1989, and Kashmir lost its state status in 2019 during a massive crackdown.
16: A joint copper mining venture in Afghanistan between China and the Taliban reportedly broke ground last month after 16 years of delay. Kabul is hanging major economic hopes on the project, which aims to exploit the second-largest untouched copper reserve in the world. But it has also accused Beijing of reneging on key elements of the deal.
20: Nigerian authorities are urgently working to secure the release of 20 medical students who were abducted in Benue State late Thursday. The national police have deployed drones and helicopters in their search, and the Nigerian Medical Association indicated it had received ransom demands. But paying them would be illegal under an anti-kidnapping law passed in 2022.
100,000: Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered X, formerly known as Twitter, to pay 100,000 reais (~$19,774) per day for each account of far-right figures it re-opened in violation of court orders while those figures are under investigation. Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes also placed X CEO Elon Musk under investigation for charges including obstruction of justice. The order has prompted X to close its offices in Brazil, but Brazilians can still access the platform.