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India vs. Pakistan: Rising tensions in South Asia
Could tensions between India and Pakistan boil back over into military conflict? Last May, India launched a wave of missile attacks into Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, claiming it was targeting terrorist infrastructure. After four days of dangerous escalation, both sides accepted a ceasefire, putting an end to the most serious military crisis in decades between the two rival nuclear states. On GZERO World, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Khar joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Pakistan’s perspective and where the conflict stands now.
Khar argues India didn’t provide credible evidence to justify the attacks and that Pakistan’s response challenged the narrative of India’s conventional military superiority. She sees China as a stabilizing force in the region and says it’s important for Pakistan to maintain broader strategic relationships within southeast Asia and the West, including the United States. Though the conflict has cooled, nerves are still on edge in Delhi and Islamabad. Now, more than ever, Khar says, it’s crucial for Pakistan to continue to strengthen its military capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, to defend its sovereignty.
“The India-Pakistan region is home to one fifth of humanity, and to put them at stake because of political engineering happening in your own country is very callous,” Khar says, “The moment one nuclear state decides to attack another, you do not know how quickly you go up the escalation ladder.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Why India and Pakistan can't get along
When–and why–did India and Pakistan become bitter rivals? The Indian subcontinent is home to some 1.5 billion people who share deep cultural, linguistic and historical ties, but for nearly eight decades, the Indian-Pakistan relationship has been marked by tension, violence, and sometimes all-out war. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the complicated history of the India-Pakistan conflict to understand why tensions are once again rising after a military clash between the two countries in May 2025.
There are many complex reasons that India and Pakistan have become such bitter rivals. Bremmer unpacks four key issues: the partition after nearly two-centuries of British colonial rule, contested claims over the Kashmir region, the development of nuclear weapons, and leaders stoking nationalist and religious tensions for political gain. A terrorist attack in Kashmir last spring led to an exchange of military strikes and showed the world just how dangerous escalation between two nuclear powers can be. Watch Ian Explains to understand the roots of the conflict and why decades of tensions and war probably won’t be resolved any time soon.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The Royal Embassy of Cambodia in Bangkok, Thailand on July 24, 2025. The two countries’ long-simmering border dispute turned violent on Thursday.
What We’re Watching: Clashes on Thailand-Cambodia border, Trump’s new AI plan, China-EU tensions
Thailand and Cambodia on the brink
A long-simmering border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia erupted into armed clashes Thursday that have killed at least 12 people on the Thai side of the frontier. Thailand has launched cross-border airstrikes in response to what it said was Cambodian artillery fire. The dispute dates back more than a century, but things have worsened since May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a border skirmish. The issue has also roiled Thai politics: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was ousted earlier this month after a leaked phone call revealed her buttering up influential Cambodian politician Hun Sen and disparaging her own country’s military.
Trump unveils AI plan
To stay ahead of China in the race to dominate artificial intelligence, President Donald Trump unveiled a sweeping plan Thursday to boost the US industry by slashing regulatory red tape and ramping up exports of US-made tech to allies – reversing Biden-era guidelines. Under the plan, US states would also be prohibited from developing their own AI rules, and the federal government would cut funding to “biased” models. Critics warn the strategy sacrifices important safeguards regarding jobs, the environment, and disinformation, but Trump and his team say speedy innovation is the only way to stay ahead of China.
China-EU summit reveals ongoing frictions
The China-European Union summit in Beijing on Thursday was meant to celebrate 50 years of bilateral ties, but the tensions were clear. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen demanded “real solutions” to deepening “imbalances”, echoing wider EU complaints that China floods European markets with products, particularly electric vehicles, that are unfairly cheap because of Chinese state subsidies. President Xi Jinping’s response? “The current challenges facing Europe do not come from China,” a pointed suggestion that the two sides share an interest in closer ties at a time of tariff pressure from the Trump administration.
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet (not pictured) at the Peace Palace in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, April 17, 2025.
China warns world against harmful US trade deals
Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a tour of Southeast Asia this month, visiting key trade partners and calling for an “open and cooperative international environment” that rejects “tariff abuse.” But given the reliance of countries like Vietnam and Cambodia on US markets, Beijing may need more than words.
What comes next: Major players are kicking off talks with the US, with Japan starting last week and South Korea meant to commence within days, and Vice President JD Vance meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Monday.
Keep your eye on smaller players: Kenyan President William Ruto arrives in Beijing Tuesday, as his burgeoning economy faces strain from US aid clawbacks. For economies in the developing world like his, taking Beijing’s side might be the best hedge available.Thailand's newly appointed Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa reacts during a family photo session with new cabinet ministers at the Government House in Bangkok, Thailand, May 7, 2024.
US ally Thailand moves forward with BRICS membership
On Sunday, Thailand said Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa had delivered an official letter to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, outlining Bangkok’s intention to join the BRICS alliance, which has gained a reputation as an anti-Western forum in recent years. Thailand holds non-NATO major ally status with the United States, but Maris said it hopes joining the Chinese- and Russian-led group will help it “play a more active role in South-South cooperation.” Things may not come together by the next BRICS summit in October, but Bangkok’s bid is likely to work out.
Is Washington worried? Hardly. For all its ambitions of pushing the dollar out of its dominant trade position and aligning the Global South to mutual political goals, BRICS can’t match actions to rhetoric. The organization doesn’t even have a permanent secretariat to coordinate its activities, and its members often don’t see eye to eye.
Thailand isn’t the first US ally to join (Brazil was), and in January, BRICS expanded to include another major non-NATO ally, Egypt, as well as close US partners Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
So what’s the point? The impotence of BRICS makes joining a low-stakes gambit with some potential upside. It might help Thailand curry favor with China, its largest trade partner and most worrying military threat. But, if not, what has Bangkok really lost?Vice-Senior General Soe Win takes part in a military parade to mark the 74th Armed Forces Day in the capital Naypyitaw, Myanmar March 27, 2019.
Myanmar junta leader MIA as rebels make gains
Deputy Prime Minister Gen. Soe Win has not been seen in public since April 3, with unconfirmed reports alleging he was injured in a drone attack — or purged from leadership. Either explanation for his long absence comes down to the same root cause: six months of rebel victories and, as of April, daring air strikes on junta strongholds.
The rebel offensive: Starting in October, a loose coalition of ethnic minority militias backed by the People’s Democratic Forces (supporters of the overthrown democratic government) launched offensives that have seized almost all of Myanmar’s frontiers with India, China, and Thailand. With trade routes cut off, the junta is feeling pressure on its military supply chains and key sources of revenue.
Will the military fall? It’s hard to imagine. They may be on the back foot, but the feared Tatmadaw has a $2.7 billion budget while some rebels are building their own artisanal firearms (talk about scrappiness).
That said, the recent rebel drone strikes on the capital and other key junta sites reportedly caused tension among the cabinet (and possibly left Soe Win incommunicado). If it is true that the rebels are chipping away at the regime’s internal cohesion, that may be their most consequential victory yet.FILE PHOTO: Philippine Navy welcomes the arrival of Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force ship for a two-day goodwill visit upon its arrival at the South Harbor in Metro Manila, Philippines April 26, 2018.
Japan looks south to bolster its security
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is in Manila Friday for a summit with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as Tokyo attempts to draw closer to partners in Southeast Asia to hedge against China.
Tokyo already has extensive economic and diplomatic ties to the Philippines, and has strategically cultivated strong relations in Southeast Asia since the late 1970s. However, during this visit, along with a stop in Malaysia this weekend, Kishida hopes to deepen military ties, opening up Japanese defense exports to both countries, and setting up cross-training programs.
Adding a military dimension is an important change for Tokyo. In the wake of World War II, instead of a collective security strategy à la NATO, the United States pursued a “hub and spoke” system in Asia. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines were all allies of the US, but not of one another, in part to maximize US leverage but also because each country faced diverging threats. What concerned Manila in the 1950s wasn’t necessarily an issue for Tokyo.
Now there’s one problem everyone in the region cares about: the Chinese military. Tokyo is well aware it can no longer rely on technological superiority to protect itself from China — nor can Washington. What it can do is fall back on those longstanding ties and give a boost to partners in Southeast Asia, says Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling.
“Kishida’s visit to the Philippines to strengthen defense cooperation is Japan’s way of reminding China of this: You may be bigger than we are, but we have more friends than you do,” he said.
Indonesia's defence minister and presidential candidate, Prabowo Subianto, along with his running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is the eldest son of Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Surakarta's Mayor, greet their supporters as they arrive at the election commission headquarters for registering themselves for next year's presidential election, in Jakarta, Indonesia, October 25, 2023
The race in Indonesia is on
Though Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous country (pop. 276 million) and its largest majority Muslim state, it’s long been recognized more for its potential than its accomplishments. But as rivalries grow among the United States, China, and India, this archipelago nation stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific is emerging as a more strategically important partner. It could also become one of the world’s 15 largest economies in the coming years.
Indonesia’s popular current president holds an approval rating of nearly 80% after nine years in power. Yet, Joko Widodo, widely known as Jokowi, is term-limited, and Indonesians will face elections next year to choose his successor. The first round of presidential voting will be held on Feb. 14, with a probable second-round runoff scheduled for June 26.
The deadline for registering presidential candidates for the election closed on Wednesday, and we now know the field. The bottom line: Next year’s election is very likely to produce political continuity.
Defense Minister and former Army General Prabowo Subianto is the favorite, in large part because he’s considered Jokowi’s anointed successor. (Prabowo’s vice presidential running mate is Jokowi’s son.) Prabowo’s strongest challenger, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, is also considered close to Jokowi. The outsider candidate, former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, is probably a long shot.
But Prabowo comes with baggage. As an army commander during the closing days of the three-decade Suharto dictatorship, which ended in 1998, he was accused of human rights abuses and banned for a period from entering the United States. He lost the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections to Jokowi. It appears, however, that the incumbent has calculated that Prabowo will allow him to retain political influence.
The greatest threat a Prabowo presidency appears to pose is to Indonesia’s economic policy. He’s viewed as a populist-nationalist, a leader more likely to govern Indonesia’s economy to sustain his popularity rather than to increase the country’s dynamism.
The campaign is now officially underway.