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The Palestinian flag is raised as the Palestinian mission to the United Kingdom holds a ceremony after the UK government announced on Sunday the country's formal recognition of a Palestinian state, at the mission's headquarters in London, United Kingdom, on September 22, 2025.
What We’re Watching: More Western nations recognize Palestinian state, Southeast Asian unrest spreads to the Philippines, Putin wants to de-facto extend nuclear arms deal
Troupe of Western nations recognize Palestinian state ahead of UN meeting
Australia, Canada, Portugal, and the United Kingdom all followed through with pledges to recognize a Palestinian state on Sunday, just in time for the start of the United Nations General Assembly’s main meetings. France is set to formally follow suit today. The move is an effort to pressure Israel to end its war in Gaza, but it seems to have had the opposite effect: citing the news, several Israeli ministers urged the military to annex the West Bank. Not every major Western nation was on board with the plan: Germany said recognition should come at the end of the peace process, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said recognizing Palestinian statehood now would be “counter-productive.”
Philippine protests turn violent
The Philippines became the latest country in Southeast Asia to face disorder, as 33,000 people gathered in Manila on Sunday to decry the government’s reported misuse of funds allocated for flood relief efforts. The protests also took a violent turn, as police arrested dozens of people suspected of hurling various makeshift weapons at officers stationed near the presidential palace. The unrest began earlier this month when a wealthy couple that leads many flood-control projects showed off their luxury cars during media interviews – this was especially painful for Philippine citizens, since the country is regularly hit with storms and many live in poverty.
Russia tacks another year onto key nuclear arms treaty
Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia will observe the last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms pact for one more year. The so-called “New START” Treaty of 2010, which limits the number of warheads and bombers each side can hold and deploy, is set to expire in February. Bilateral inspections collapsed several years ago due to the Ukraine war and no new treaty has been negotiated; at least theoretically, New START remains in effect. Putin’s decision is welcome, but it merely punts two key questions: will the US and Russia reach a new pact to limit the world’s most destructive weapons, and how will any new arms control system take into account the growing nuclear arsenal of China?
Police officers disperse protesters during riots in front of the House of Representatives building in Jakarta, Indonesia, on August 30, 2025.
Why Asia’s “Gen Z” revolts matter
Across South and Southeast Asia, something unusual is brewing.
Massive economic protests in Indonesia were inflamed in late August when a police car rammed into a taxi and killed the young driver. “Gen Z” demonstrators in Nepal earlier this month burned the parliament and forced the prime minister to resign. And this week in Timor-Leste, protestors – including many students – set cars ablaze in objection to a government plan to buy vehicles for politicians.
A common thread among widely different contexts? Young people are fed up with corruption by entrenched leaders. The Indonesian unrest was touched off when young people struggling with high living costs learned all 580 members of the House of Representatives were receiving a housing benefit – President Prabowo Subianto has replaced certain high-level ministers in a desperate bid to quell the unrest.
Protestors in Timor-Leste – including many students – fumed about a similar proposal in their country, where lawmakers already make 10 times the country’s median income. Nepal’s young people have suffered from a stagnant economy, and when the government banned most social media as part of a broader crackdown on speech, it tipped them over the edge, beginning what has been dubbed the “Gen Z revolt.”
These upheavals have only added to the pile of political crises in the region. Three weeks ago a court removed Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office over a deferential phone call with a leading Cambodian politician during a border dispute. Myanmar is in perpetual crisis as a military junta fights a grinding civil war against multiple armed groups. In the Philippines, the House speaker has just resigned over a corruption scandal amid a broader battle between two ruling families.
Though young people are at the heart of the latest protests in Indonesia, Nepal, and Timor Leste, it’s not an issue that’s specific to Southeast Asia, according to Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“I don’t think it has to do with the region,” Kurlantzick told GZERO. “You can see that in tons of other places around the world, young people are completely fed up with politics… The center is falling apart in all of these places.”
Though the domestic ramifications of each of these revolts are unclear – Prabowo remains in charge in Indonesia, while Nepal is still trying to determine its next leader – one thing is certain: the region’s collective foreign policy is now under strain, lacking any coherent vision at a time when the rivalry between United States and China is white hot.
“It definitely has an effect on regional politics and leadership,” said Kurlantzick. “You don’t have the region’s most-powerful countries being devoted to foreign or regional policy. That is a huge problem.”
This has major economic ramifications, as the countries are dealing with Washington and China on a one-to-one basis, weakening their bargaining position against these two superpowers.
“In the past, the 10 Southeast Asia states negotiated trade agreements with other powerful countries, like Japan and China.” Kurlantzick added. “They could have all worked together and rejected the Trump administration’s transshipment tariffs, and you have a billion people and huge exporters in this region, but they couldn’t.”
India vs. Pakistan: Rising tensions in South Asia
Could tensions between India and Pakistan boil back over into military conflict? Last May, India launched a wave of missile attacks into Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, claiming it was targeting terrorist infrastructure. After four days of dangerous escalation, both sides accepted a ceasefire, putting an end to the most serious military crisis in decades between the two rival nuclear states. On GZERO World, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Khar joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Pakistan’s perspective and where the conflict stands now.
Khar argues India didn’t provide credible evidence to justify the attacks and that Pakistan’s response challenged the narrative of India’s conventional military superiority. She sees China as a stabilizing force in the region and says it’s important for Pakistan to maintain broader strategic relationships within southeast Asia and the West, including the United States. Though the conflict has cooled, nerves are still on edge in Delhi and Islamabad. Now, more than ever, Khar says, it’s crucial for Pakistan to continue to strengthen its military capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, to defend its sovereignty.
“The India-Pakistan region is home to one fifth of humanity, and to put them at stake because of political engineering happening in your own country is very callous,” Khar says, “The moment one nuclear state decides to attack another, you do not know how quickly you go up the escalation ladder.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Why India and Pakistan can't get along
When–and why–did India and Pakistan become bitter rivals? The Indian subcontinent is home to some 1.5 billion people who share deep cultural, linguistic and historical ties, but for nearly eight decades, the Indian-Pakistan relationship has been marked by tension, violence, and sometimes all-out war. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the complicated history of the India-Pakistan conflict to understand why tensions are once again rising after a military clash between the two countries in May 2025.
There are many complex reasons that India and Pakistan have become such bitter rivals. Bremmer unpacks four key issues: the partition after nearly two-centuries of British colonial rule, contested claims over the Kashmir region, the development of nuclear weapons, and leaders stoking nationalist and religious tensions for political gain. A terrorist attack in Kashmir last spring led to an exchange of military strikes and showed the world just how dangerous escalation between two nuclear powers can be. Watch Ian Explains to understand the roots of the conflict and why decades of tensions and war probably won’t be resolved any time soon.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The Royal Embassy of Cambodia in Bangkok, Thailand on July 24, 2025. The two countries’ long-simmering border dispute turned violent on Thursday.
What We’re Watching: Clashes on Thailand-Cambodia border, Trump’s new AI plan, China-EU tensions
Thailand and Cambodia on the brink
A long-simmering border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia erupted into armed clashes Thursday that have killed at least 12 people on the Thai side of the frontier. Thailand has launched cross-border airstrikes in response to what it said was Cambodian artillery fire. The dispute dates back more than a century, but things have worsened since May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a border skirmish. The issue has also roiled Thai politics: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was ousted earlier this month after a leaked phone call revealed her buttering up influential Cambodian politician Hun Sen and disparaging her own country’s military.
Trump unveils AI plan
To stay ahead of China in the race to dominate artificial intelligence, President Donald Trump unveiled a sweeping plan Thursday to boost the US industry by slashing regulatory red tape and ramping up exports of US-made tech to allies – reversing Biden-era guidelines. Under the plan, US states would also be prohibited from developing their own AI rules, and the federal government would cut funding to “biased” models. Critics warn the strategy sacrifices important safeguards regarding jobs, the environment, and disinformation, but Trump and his team say speedy innovation is the only way to stay ahead of China.
China-EU summit reveals ongoing frictions
The China-European Union summit in Beijing on Thursday was meant to celebrate 50 years of bilateral ties, but the tensions were clear. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen demanded “real solutions” to deepening “imbalances”, echoing wider EU complaints that China floods European markets with products, particularly electric vehicles, that are unfairly cheap because of Chinese state subsidies. President Xi Jinping’s response? “The current challenges facing Europe do not come from China,” a pointed suggestion that the two sides share an interest in closer ties at a time of tariff pressure from the Trump administration.
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet (not pictured) at the Peace Palace in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, April 17, 2025.
China warns world against harmful US trade deals
Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a tour of Southeast Asia this month, visiting key trade partners and calling for an “open and cooperative international environment” that rejects “tariff abuse.” But given the reliance of countries like Vietnam and Cambodia on US markets, Beijing may need more than words.
What comes next: Major players are kicking off talks with the US, with Japan starting last week and South Korea meant to commence within days, and Vice President JD Vance meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Monday.
Keep your eye on smaller players: Kenyan President William Ruto arrives in Beijing Tuesday, as his burgeoning economy faces strain from US aid clawbacks. For economies in the developing world like his, taking Beijing’s side might be the best hedge available.Thailand's newly appointed Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa reacts during a family photo session with new cabinet ministers at the Government House in Bangkok, Thailand, May 7, 2024.
US ally Thailand moves forward with BRICS membership
On Sunday, Thailand said Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa had delivered an official letter to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, outlining Bangkok’s intention to join the BRICS alliance, which has gained a reputation as an anti-Western forum in recent years. Thailand holds non-NATO major ally status with the United States, but Maris said it hopes joining the Chinese- and Russian-led group will help it “play a more active role in South-South cooperation.” Things may not come together by the next BRICS summit in October, but Bangkok’s bid is likely to work out.
Is Washington worried? Hardly. For all its ambitions of pushing the dollar out of its dominant trade position and aligning the Global South to mutual political goals, BRICS can’t match actions to rhetoric. The organization doesn’t even have a permanent secretariat to coordinate its activities, and its members often don’t see eye to eye.
Thailand isn’t the first US ally to join (Brazil was), and in January, BRICS expanded to include another major non-NATO ally, Egypt, as well as close US partners Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
So what’s the point? The impotence of BRICS makes joining a low-stakes gambit with some potential upside. It might help Thailand curry favor with China, its largest trade partner and most worrying military threat. But, if not, what has Bangkok really lost?Vice-Senior General Soe Win takes part in a military parade to mark the 74th Armed Forces Day in the capital Naypyitaw, Myanmar March 27, 2019.
Myanmar junta leader MIA as rebels make gains
Deputy Prime Minister Gen. Soe Win has not been seen in public since April 3, with unconfirmed reports alleging he was injured in a drone attack — or purged from leadership. Either explanation for his long absence comes down to the same root cause: six months of rebel victories and, as of April, daring air strikes on junta strongholds.
The rebel offensive: Starting in October, a loose coalition of ethnic minority militias backed by the People’s Democratic Forces (supporters of the overthrown democratic government) launched offensives that have seized almost all of Myanmar’s frontiers with India, China, and Thailand. With trade routes cut off, the junta is feeling pressure on its military supply chains and key sources of revenue.
Will the military fall? It’s hard to imagine. They may be on the back foot, but the feared Tatmadaw has a $2.7 billion budget while some rebels are building their own artisanal firearms (talk about scrappiness).
That said, the recent rebel drone strikes on the capital and other key junta sites reportedly caused tension among the cabinet (and possibly left Soe Win incommunicado). If it is true that the rebels are chipping away at the regime’s internal cohesion, that may be their most consequential victory yet.