Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
A soldier from the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) on the outskirts of Myawaddy, the Thailand-Myanmar border town under the control of a coalition of rebel forces led by the Karen National Union, in Myanmar, April 15, 2024.
Myanmar militia retakes symbolic capital from junta forces
In a major symbolic blow to the junta that controls Myanmar, fighters from the Karen National Union’s armed wing retook the eastern town of Manerplaw on Wednesday, nearly 30 years after first losing it.
The background: The junta has held power since a 2021 coup, but has been on its back foot this year, facing losses along its borders with Thailand, China, India, and Bangladesh, as ethnic militias team up with pro-democracy fighters to press government troops from all sides.
The KNU has been fighting for independence since 1949, and has long seen Manerplaw as the eventual seat of its government. The town became an important symbol for many resistance groups after the military crushed major pro-democracy demonstrations in the big cities in 1988, but the junta was able to exploit rivalries between local groups of Buddhists and Christians in order to seize the Manerplaw in 1995. That triggered a deluge of refugees fleeing across the border into Thailand, where thousands remain to this day.
Will the junta be forced to negotiate soon? It’s too early to say. The victory is sure to inspire the KNU and other ethnic militias and pro-democracy groups, but for all their success on the rugged periphery of the country, anti-junta rebels have yet to pose a serious threat to the major population centers in the lowlands at the center of Myanmar. Their success will depend on maintaining unity and a shared vision of a federal, democratic Myanmar.Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra attends a press conference at the Pheu Thai party headquarters after the royal endorsement ceremony.
New Thai PM’s party ejects military-backed coalition partners
The Pheu Thai party announced Monday that it would eject the military-backed Palang Pracharat party from its incoming government.
The move comes after Palang Pracharat’s leader Prawit Wongsuwon, a former army chief with powerful royal connections, refused to attend the vote to approve new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. As a result, Pheu Thai will lose 40 Palang Pracharat representatives, but its leaders say they expect to maintain a majority in Parliament.
Politics are personal in Thailand: Prawit participated in the 2006 coup against Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin Shinawatra, and the 2014 coup against her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra. The billionaire Shinawatra clan and its Pheu Thai party formed an alliance of necessity last year with the military to prevent the upstart reformist Move Forward party from taking power, despite winning the most votes in the 2023 election. Pheu Thai took the helm last August, and Thaksin returned from exile and was pardoned by King Vajiralongkorn.
It’s not a total schism: Pheu Thai will still work with the United Thai Nation party, also heavily linked to the military and monarchy, and Paetongtarn has consistently opposed repealing laws against criticizing the king (but there is plenty to criticize).
Pheu Thai needs middle-class Thai voters. The military-monarchy connection is deeply rooted in Thailand, and voters have generally tolerated military intervention in the name of national security. There’s no sign of a looming coup — but the Shinawatras are 0 for 2 when it comes to peaceful transitions out of power.Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra attends a press conference at the Pheu Thai party headquarters after the royal endorsement ceremony. Paetongtarn Shinawatra become the 31th Prime Minister and the second female Prime Minister of Thailand after her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra.
Hard Numbers: New PM in Bangkok, New elections in Kashmir, New copper in Afghanistan, New kidnappings in Nigeria, New fines for X in Brazil
37: Thailand now has its youngest-ever prime minister, with 37-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter and niece of former PMs Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra, respectively, at the helm. Paetongtarn – who received the royal endorsement on Sunday – faces a tough road ahead, with Thai voters struggling amid a sluggish economy and chaffing after nearly a decade of military meddling in politics, including for her appointment.
10: Voters in Indian-controlled Kashmir will vote for a state assembly for the first time in 10 years starting next month, Indian authorities announced Friday. But the news isn’t going over well in Srinagar, with one local politician saying “This isn’t democracy, it’s a mockery.” The new local assembly will only have nominal control over education and cultural policy, while all other legislation will continue to come from New Delhi. Kashmiri militants, with backing from Pakistan and international terrorist networks, have resisted Indian occupation since 1989, and Kashmir lost its state status in 2019 during a massive crackdown.
16: A joint copper mining venture in Afghanistan between China and the Taliban reportedly broke ground last month after 16 years of delay. Kabul is hanging major economic hopes on the project, which aims to exploit the second-largest untouched copper reserve in the world. But it has also accused Beijing of reneging on key elements of the deal.
20: Nigerian authorities are urgently working to secure the release of 20 medical students who were abducted in Benue State late Thursday. The national police have deployed drones and helicopters in their search, and the Nigerian Medical Association indicated it had received ransom demands. But paying them would be illegal under an anti-kidnapping law passed in 2022.
100,000: Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered X, formerly known as Twitter, to pay 100,000 reais (~$19,774) per day for each account of far-right figures it re-opened in violation of court orders while those figures are under investigation. Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes also placed X CEO Elon Musk under investigation for charges including obstruction of justice. The order has prompted X to close its offices in Brazil, but Brazilians can still access the platform.
A man holds a Russian flag, as Nigerians protest in the streets during anti-government demonstrations against bad governance and economic hardship, in Kaduna state, Nigeria August 5, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Nigeria hems in tailors over Russian flags, Thailand's Move Forward disbanded, EU-Mercosur nears trade deal, Scorched China turns off the lights, Foreigners stoke Portugal’s housing crisis
4: Measure twice, arrest once, they say. Nigeria has detained several tailors and their “sponsors” for making the Russian flags that protesters were seen waving during recent anti-government demonstrations in four northern states. Unrest surged nationwide last week in response to subsidy cuts and soaring inflation. Nigerian authorities say waiving a foreign flag during protests is a “treasonable offense,” but the move comes amid heightened concern about Russian influence in sub-Saharan Africa, where Moscow-friendly forces have recently carried out several coups.
10: A Thai court on Monday banned the anti-establishment Move Forward party’s current and former executives from politics for 10 years over its opposition to laws that protect Thailand’s royal family from criticism. The rank-and-file members will be allowed to keep their seats in parliament and are likely to form a new party, albeit without the same leadership that secured the most votes in the 2023 election.
780 million: Negotiators are in the homestretch on a free trade deal between the EU and Mercosur, a trade group comprising South American heavyweights Brazil and Argentina, along with Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia. If inked, it would create a single market of 780 million people and save EU companies more than $4 billion a year in tariffs. The talks took a hit recently when France objected on environmental grounds, but a new draft will include climate change commitments. To ratify, the EU needs only a simple majority of its 27 members.
12.5 million: The Chinese tech capital of Hangzhou has ordered its 12.5 million residents to stop using any “non-essential lighting” to relieve power grids as a record heat wave scorches large swathes of eastern and southern China. The soaring temperatures have not only tested power generation, but they’ve also raised concerns about adequate irrigation for rice farmers in the middle of the early-season harvest.
94: Rental prices in the Portuguese capital of Lisbon have soared 94% over the past decade, while home prices have risen twice as much as that. Experts blame the shortage of affordable housing on an influx of wealthy foreigners lured by tax breaks, a growing number of economic immigrants (especially from Brazil) seeking employment, and the rise of short-term rentals that cater to the country’s tourism industry.
Skyline von Bangkok Skyline von Bangkok. Panorama von Chinatown. Bangkok, Changwat Bangkok, Thailand, 26.01.2024
Thailand set to hand out $13 billion to citizens
Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin announced Monday that citizens will be able to register for a digital wallet handout starting in August that will give about $275 each to 50 million people. It’s the latest in a series of populist policies put forward by the ruling Pheu Thai party, which cut a deal with the military to take power last year.
The idea is to offer folks an incentive to download the new digital wallet. Digital currencies are issued by a country’s central bank and function just like the fiat money you use every day. There are pilot programs in the EU, China, India, Saudi Arabia, and many other countries.
The government claims this handout, equivalent to roughly 66% of the average monthly income in Thailand, will help grow the economy by about 1.6%. The program is restricted to Thais who earn less than $23,000 a year (about three-quarters of the population) and they’ll have to spend it in small shops near their homes. But the Bank of Thailand has concerns – as do many economists, as it will push the debt-to-GPD ratio past 66% and increase the fiscal deficit.
That may be a risk Srettha is willing to run, considering his approval rate hovers around 12.85%. His efforts to pass popular policy, including a recriminalization of cannabis, and legalization of same-sex marriage, have done little to erase the stain Pheu Thai acquired by siding with the military to push out the Move Forward party, who won the largest share of seats in 2023. We are watching whether handing out cash can reverse his slide.Thailand's newly appointed Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa reacts during a family photo session with new cabinet ministers at the Government House in Bangkok, Thailand, May 7, 2024.
US ally Thailand moves forward with BRICS membership
On Sunday, Thailand said Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa had delivered an official letter to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, outlining Bangkok’s intention to join the BRICS alliance, which has gained a reputation as an anti-Western forum in recent years. Thailand holds non-NATO major ally status with the United States, but Maris said it hopes joining the Chinese- and Russian-led group will help it “play a more active role in South-South cooperation.” Things may not come together by the next BRICS summit in October, but Bangkok’s bid is likely to work out.
Is Washington worried? Hardly. For all its ambitions of pushing the dollar out of its dominant trade position and aligning the Global South to mutual political goals, BRICS can’t match actions to rhetoric. The organization doesn’t even have a permanent secretariat to coordinate its activities, and its members often don’t see eye to eye.
Thailand isn’t the first US ally to join (Brazil was), and in January, BRICS expanded to include another major non-NATO ally, Egypt, as well as close US partners Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
So what’s the point? The impotence of BRICS makes joining a low-stakes gambit with some potential upside. It might help Thailand curry favor with China, its largest trade partner and most worrying military threat. But, if not, what has Bangkok really lost?Students at Martin Van Buren High School in Queens
Hard Numbers: Segregation is back, Thai activist dies in jail, French “Fly” freed, New US arms sale to Israel
19.8: Over the past three decades, the share of US public schools where 90% of the students are non-white has nearly tripled to 19.8%, according to a UCLA report. Experts say the rise of charter schools and expansion of school choice is partly to blame for this de facto segregation. The data, crunched by the UCLA Civil Rights Project, come on the eve of the 70th anniversary of the landmark Brown vs. Boardof Education case in which the US Supreme Court outlawed racial segregation at schools.
110: A young Thai activist jailed for demanding reform of the country’s uncriticizable monarchy has died after a 110-day hunger strike. Twenty-eight year old Netiporn “Bung” Sanesangkhom had been jailed under Thailand’s severe lèse-majesté laws after asking people’s opinion of the monarchy in public spaces in 2022.
2: A manhunt is underway in France after two masked gunmen ambushed a prison van and freed a notorious drug dealer nicknamed “The Fly.” The incident is the latest in a trend of rising narco-related crime in Europe, as authorities seize record volumes of cocaine entering the EU while rival gangs fight for turf and clientele. Of course, when it comes to jailbreaks, the cinema-obsessed French gangster Rédoine Faïd remains the master of the craft.
1 billion: The Biden administration reportedly told lawmakers it’s moving forward with a new sale of roughly $1 billion worth of arms to Israel, including tactical vehicles and ammunition. This news comes as the administration continues to butt heads with Israel over the Rafah operation, and just days after President Joe Biden put a hold on a shipment of bombs to the Jewish state as concerns rise over the mounting death toll amid the war with Hamas in Gaza.
Tourist stand in front of Peak Bolivar at the Sierra Nevada in the Andean state of Merida July 30, 2008.
Hard Numbers: Venezuela loses its glaciers, Renewables hit 30, MTG flames out, Thailand smokes cannabis industry, Kenya bulldozes flood-prone homes
6: It may surprise you that Venezuela, located just north of the equator, has glaciers. Well, it had glaciers. The country has just become the first in modern history to lose all of its Andean mountain glaciers, which once numbered six in total. Global warming has caused the last of them, the Humboldt Glacier, to shrink so much that it is now a mere “ice field.”
30: But here’s some good news on the global warming front: Renewable sources reached 30% of total global energy production in 2023. Hydropower is still the reigning renewable champ, accounting for about half of all clean energy – but solar and wind have expanded dramatically over the past decade.
1.2 billion: Thailand’s cannabis industry, projected to reach $1.2 billion by next year, just got smoked. The country’s government has decided to re-list the leaf as a narcotic. The move reverses a decision two years ago to decriminalize recreational pot use. Supporters of the re-listing say that decriminalization was hastily done with poor regulations and has exacerbated youth addiction. Opponents say it will crush small businesses and that it’s unfair so long as alcohol and cigarettes remain legal.
75: As deadly rains continue to swell rivers and cause catastrophic flooding, the Kenyan government is now bulldozing homes in flood-prone areas and giving their owners the equivalent of $75 to move elsewhere. The government had given residents in high-risk zones a deadline to leave or face eviction. Security forces reportedly fired tear gas at some residents who tried to stop the bulldozers in the capital of Nairobi.