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Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thaksin to Thai king: Pardon me?
Thailand’s billionaire former PM Thaksin Shinawatra has appealed to the country’s king for a pardon just days after being jailed upon his highly anticipated return to the country.
The background: In the early 2000s, Thaksin struck a populist chord to win a slew of elections, and was PM until he was ousted in a 2006 military coup that drove him into exile. Last week, he returned home for the first time since then, only to be jailed on charges of corruption and abuse of power.
The timing: It’s fishy for sure. Thaksin’s return came just as the Pheu Thai Party he founded did a once-unthinkable thing: after recent elections, the party agreed to lead a coalition that includes pro-military parties that were once Thaksin’s bitter enemies. The decision effectively shut out the progressive Move Forward Party, which actually won the elections on a groundswell of youth support.
The speculation: Did Pheu Thai do a deal with the military junta in which it buried the hatchet in exchange for Thaksin’s return and pardon? Keep a close eye on what happens in the next few days. The king has a decision to make, and millions of Move Forward supporters may yet show their anger on the streets. If he’s denied the pardon, he will need to wait two years, presumably in jail, before asking again.
Supporters attend the Pheu Thai Party campaign
Thailand elects new prime minister as exiled leader comes home
Tuesday is a tumultuous day for Thai politics. Thailand’s parliament has elected a new prime minister, thanks to the Pheu Thai Party and pro-military parties – former foes – joining forces to block the Move Forward Party. This made room for billionaire ex-politician Thaksin Shinawatra to return home after 15 years in exile. Shinawatra ruled the Pheu Thai before he was ousted in a military-backed coup in 2006 and fled to Dubai. With the Pheu Thai and the military-backed parties having set aside their differences, a “super deal” between them has allowed for his return.
After landing at home on Tuesday, Shinawatra was taken directly to the Supreme Court, where he was sentenced for three former convictions – which he says were politically motivated – to eight years in prison. He was jailed but is expected to soon receive a royal pardon as part of the deal.
So who’s taking the helm? Parliament elected Pheu Thai leader Srettha Thavisin as prime minister. He will lead the new 11-party coalition that excludes the progressive Move Forward Party, which unexpectedly won the majority in May’s parliamentary elections but has been unable to form a coalition to govern.
The new coalition holds 314 of the 500 seats in Thailand’s House of Representatives. It promises to boost the economy, increase the minimum wage, end mandatory conscription, continue legalizing marijuana, and even rewrite the military-implemented constitution (but it will not touch the royal defamation law, a key tenet of the Move Forward Party’s platform).
Pheu Thai joining forces with military-backed parties is controversial because they were political adversaries in the past. Pheu Thai is being criticized by supporters for backtracking on its pre-election pledge not to join hands with pro-military parties. Moreover, many members of Pheu Thai’s base, known as the “Red Shirts,” died in political violence as they defended Pheu Thai from the pro-military parties trying to eviscerate Shinawatra’s power in 2006. The leader of the Red Shirts resigned on Monday in protest.
Who else will be upset? The millions of young Thai voters who delivered a win to the progressive Move Forward Party back in May – and a rebuke to the military-linked parties in charge – will be angered by today’s events. With their electoral choice upended by political wrangling, street protests by the progressive movement are likely.
Move Forward Party's leader and prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat
Political upheaval expected after Thai PM vote
On Tuesday, Thai lawmakers are expected to hold a high-stakes parliamentary vote for a new prime minister, the outcome of which could cause prolonged political unrest if the Move Forward Party continues being sidelined from forming the next government, even though it won the election.
Some background: The vote comes after the liberal Move Forward Party surprisingly won the general election in March – thanks largely to huge support from youth and urban voters. But their candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, was barred from assuming the premiership on the grounds that he was knowingly unfit to run because he owned shares in a media firm, which is forbidden under Thai election rules.
The technicality was seen as a way for the army-backed establishment to hold onto power, and it has deadlocked parliament for weeks.
For a candidate to become prime minister, they need the backing of half of the combined houses. Even though Move Forward has the majority of seats, getting enough votes is looking like an impossible task, especially since the runner-up party, Pheu Thai, withdrew their support for Limjaroenrat and is now backing the conservative, army-backed candidate, the real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin.
Move Forward won 113 seats in the election, so without forming a coalition with Thavisin’s Pheu Thai Party, it is far from reaching the 376 needed to win the lower house.
If Pheu Thai does prevail, there is likely to be considerable social unrest, especially by the politically active youth who fought to win Move Forward the majority.
Ukrainian offensive tests Russian defenses
How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going? Pro-democracy opposition parties swept the Thai elections. Will they be allowed to govern? Is Assad's invitation to COP28 a sign of Syria's return to the global stage? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going?
Well, it's just started. It's a little premature to ask me that question. Right now you're looking at probing attacks, artillery for the Ukrainians to try to assess where Russian defenses might be weakest so that when Zelensky gives the order for the full counteroffensive, it's starting, but not with masses of troops, that it's most likely to succeed. There is general optimism right now. The Russians are dug in along three lines of defense in southeast Ukraine. There's pretty significant optimism the Ukrainians will be able to break through one, at least maybe two of those lines of defense, which puts them in striking distance of artillery of the coast of the Sea of Azov, which means being able to threaten the land bridge to Crimea. That's a pretty big deal. It improves Ukraine's ability to negotiate if that happens after the counteroffensive is over.
Pro-democracy opposition parties swept the Thai elections. Will they be allowed to govern?
Well, the elections were free. They were fair, but the system structurally advantages the military and the pro-military parties and electors. The military gets to determine basically a large percentage of those people that form a government. What that means is that even with a massive win for the pro-democracy opposition, the possibility that they form a government is pretty much a coin flip. It's about 50-50 right now. The structural disadvantages for pro-democracy forces in Thailand are that great. It's going to be a very hard-fought few weeks and we'll see where it goes, but I would not yet hold my breath that this is a meaningful transition election in Thailand. Still though, there's an opportunity, as there isn't in Turkey, as Erdogan is likely to win, very likely to win is in the second round.
Is Assad's invitation to COP28 a sign of Syria's return to the global stage?
I don't know if I'd say the global stage. Remember this is in the Emirates. It's Abu Dhabi. There has been a re-engagement of the Gulf States with Syria's Bashar al-Assad. That does not change the way the United States is feeling about Assad, or most of the Europeans for that matter. But despite the red line and the whole, "Assad must go," that President Obama once said, and Obama's well gone, Assad is still there and Assad is now increasingly someone that you engage with internationally. It is harder to say no to rogue states when other countries are prepared to deal. Hey, Venezuela is now pumping more oil and Chevron's licenses have been re-approved. Any other gas exploration is now happening. Same Maduro, but the United States with the war in Russia going on and with Ukraine is saying, "Hey, we need to work with these guys." Basically what we're seeing is that more and more tolerance for countries and rogues that act in despicable impunity, but nonetheless, less capacity, less willingness of the world to bring them to bear, and Assad is a piece of that.
Thailand's former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
Not now, Thaksin!
We recently predicted that the shadow of self-exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra would loom large over the May 14 Thai election. Now the stakes just got a lot higher.
On Tuesday, Thaksin announced that he plans to return before his 74th birthday in July, almost 15 years after he skipped town when he was about to go on trial for corruption. Thaksin, ousted in a 2006 coup, was ultimately convicted in absentia of several charges that add up to over a decade in prison.
Although Thaksin says he just wants to raise his grandkids and won't be a burden to his daughter, Paetongtarn, currently leading the polls for her dad's old job, it's hard to imagine how he won't.
Thaksin has dominated Thai politics for a generation, and the prospect of his return might boost voter turnout for Paetongtarn. But he’s also a polarizing figure — despised by the generals who now run the country under a civilian government (and who deposed his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, in 2014).
Also, Thaksin needs a royal pardon to avoid arrest. Don't count on it: In 2019, King Vajiralongkorn blocked his own sister, Princess Ubolratana, from running for premier … under Thaksin's party.
Monarchs from around
Monarchies that matter
It’s the moment he always knew would come. Eight months after the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II, King Charles III will be crowned at a coronation ceremony on May 6 – though he did officially become king at the time of her death. (And who could forget his first royal row with … a pen!)
It’s been hard to escape the spectacle of this event, Britain’s first coronation in 70 years. Some 2,200 people are expected to attend the ceremony at Westminster Abbey, while the broader three-day extravaganza will cost British taxpayers at least £100 million ($125 million) amid a painful cost-of-living crunch.
But for all the displays of pageantry to celebrate a king who most Brits feel little more than indifferent toward, the role of the British royal family is mostly symbolic, and the monarch’s powers are extremely limited.
Queen Elizabeth II, for her part, skillfully stayed above the fray of party politics during her seven decades on the throne. That will now be her son’s challenge. Still, when push comes to shove, power remains concentrated in the hands of Britain’s political class.
The same can’t be said, however, of other monarchies around the world that yield enormous power at home and abroad. Here are some of them.
Saudi Arabia: The buck stops with MBS
Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy, meaning that the king, who heads the House of Saud (royal family) also serves as or chooses the prime minister. Since the modern Saudi state was established in 1932, successive kings have amassed vast power, steering the oil-rich state’s domestic and foreign policies.
To be sure, a 150-person Consultative Assembly, tapped by the king and known as the Shura Council, is meant to serve as an advisory policy body, which includes the mandate of drafting legislation. In practice, however, the buck traditionally stops with the head of the monarchy.
Still, the royal who has yielded the most power in modern Saudi history is not actually a king. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (known as MBS), the seventh son of King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, 87, has been the de facto leader of the petrostate for some six years, overseeing key portfolios, such as the economy, defense, and foreign policy.
And MBS is making big moves. At home, he oversaw a sweeping anti-corruption drive in 2017 that purged dozens of Saudi elites, while also reversing a ban on female drivers as part of the kingdom’s bid to diversify and modernize the Saudi economy.
Meanwhile, MBS – widely believed to have orchestrated the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi – has embarked on a combative foreign policy trajectory, including launching a war against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen that’s turned into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Crucially, he also calls the shots over the Saudis' global energy policy, which has put him on a collision course with the Biden administration after he rebuffed Washington’s request to increase oil output to offset price increases caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Thailand: The king isn’t messing around
Officially, Thailand – an absolute monarchy until 1932 – has a constitutional monarchy, meaning that the king should be removed from day-to-day politics. But throughout decades of political turmoil in the country, the monarchy has used oppressive tactics to amass unrivaled power over politics and society.
During his tenure, King Bhumibol (1950-2016) served as the final mediator of Thailand’s many coups d'état. The military has only gotten more beholden to the monarchy in recent years after King Vajiralongkorn, who assumed the throne after his father died in 2016, gave his blessing to current PM Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former general who seized power in a coup in 2014.
What’s more, Thailand has some of the world’s most draconian royal defamation laws, which sets out prison terms of up to 15 years for those who defame members of the royal family. Consider that in 2021, a former civil servant was given a 43-year sentence for criticizing the king on social media.
The monarch’s iron-fisted reign sparked one of the largest youth-led protest movements in Thai history in 2020 – with protesters flashing a three-finger salute of youth resistance popularized by the “Hunger Games” franchise.
On May 14, Thailand heads to the polls for the first time since those protesters rocked the country and dared to ask a long-taboo question: How much political power should the king have?
Eswatini: Africa’s last absolute monarchy
King Mswati III has ruled the landlocked African country of 1.1 million with an iron fist since he assumed the throne in 1986 at age 18 after his father, King Sobhuza II, died. (Fun fact: Mswati was the youngest of his father’s known 68 sons.)
While some members of parliament are elected by popular vote, political parties are banned from participating in elections in Eswatini, and the cabinet is appointed by the king.
The king, referred to as Ngwenyama, meaning “lion” in the Siswati language, yields complete power and tolerates no dissent. Consider that in 2018, Mswati decided on a whim to change the country’s name from Swaziland to Eswatini – and that was that.
And while he lives a life of luxury, most of the population lives in poverty. After years of economic ruin, around one-third of all Eswatinis are unemployed – while the country has the world's highest HIV rate for 15-49-year-olds.
The brutal killing of a student at the hands of Mswati's security forces in 2021 gave rise to rare anti-royal protests in the country that left dozens dead after Mswati ordered security forces to fire at protesters.
In Eswatini, speaking out against the king is literally a matter of life and death.
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The Graphic Truth: How does El Salvador's prison rate stack up?
El Salvador made headlines in recent days after President Nayib Bukele released photos of gang members being corralled into the country’s new mega-prison – a sprawling complex that will eventually hold 40,000 inmates. It’s the latest development in Bukele’s massive – and very popular – crackdown on gangs, in which Salvadoran authorities have locked up almost 2% of the adult population. (Never mind that US officials have recently accused Bukele of colluding with the very gangs he says he’s trying to stamp out!) El Salvador now has the highest prison rate per 100,000 people in the world – but how does that compare globally? Here we take a look at the countries with the highest official prison rates.
Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani meets Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo, Egypt, June 2022.
Hard Numbers: Egypt-Qatar bonding, Thai activist jailed for dressing up, Hungary's ‘fetal heartbeat’ law, fatal kangaroo incident, Ken Starr dies
5: Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah-el Sisi visited Qatar on Tuesday for the first time in five years. In 2017, Egypt – along with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain – cut diplomatic ties with Doha, citing its support for terror groups, which Qatar denied. Mired in an economic crisis, Cairo now wants to boost economic ties with Qatar and other wealthy Gulf states.
2: A Thai activist has been jailed for two years for the crime of … dressing like the queen. The charges are linked to a 2020 demonstration in Bangkok, where she donned a silk pink dress that authorities say mocked the queen’s attire. Thailand has notoriously strict laws banning criticism of the monarchy.
12: Hungary’s parliament has passed a new ‘fetal heartbeat’ law requiring all women to listen to their fetus’s heartbeat before proceeding with an abortion, which is legal in Hungary up until 12 weeks (sometimes later for health complications). Hungary’s conservative PM Viktor Orbán has long sought to bolster “traditional family values” and boost the country’s birthrate.
86: An Australian man has been killed by a kangaroo, marking the first fatal kangaroo attack Down Under in 86 years. The man, living in Western Australia, was reportedly keeping the marsupial as a pet, and it’s unclear whether he had a permit to do so. Authorities said the animal was killed by police because it was preventing paramedics from reaching the injured man.130:Kenneth Starr died at age 76 yesterday. A well-known legal mind, Starr became a household name in the 1990s with his investigation of President Bill Clinton, which led to the first impeachment of a US president in 130 years. He also represented Big Tobacco, Jeffrey Epstein, and former President Donald Trump.