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US President Joe Biden announces actions to lower gas prices
What We're Watching: Biden moves on oil, US-Russia info wars, Costa Rica's vote
Major oil drama
President Joe Biden on Thursday ordered the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to release 1 million oil barrels per day for the next six months in order to bring down soaring gasoline prices over the war in Ukraine. Technically, more American oil on the global market would help lower prices, but Biden's move was met by a collective shrug by the OPEC+ group of oil-exporting countries, which announced they can’t do much to stop rising prices and signed off on a modest increase in production. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, announced that Moscow will indeed demand payment in rubles for Russian oil from now on. Those who don’t comply could face being cut off. France and Germany said no way, but there's a loophole: oil buyers can still deal with Gazprombank, a Russian bank that hasn't been sanctioned yet (and is conveniently run by the state-owned energy giant Gazprom). What does this all mean? Oil prices will keep rising, but they won’t skyrocket just yet.
Russia, the West, and information warfare
In recent days, the Biden administration and the Kremlin have been locked in a war of words. First, the White House said that US intelligence showed that President Vladimir Putin felt misled by his military leaders, who have avoided telling the Russian leader details about the bungled invasion. (British intelligence agencies then backed up this assessment.) The Kremlin hit back on Thursday, saying that the West has a “complete misunderstanding” of the goings on in Moscow and warning, ominously, that such claims could have “bad consequences.” It is unclear what intelligence the US and UK have or whether the Pentagon’s claims are true. But recent events seem to indicate the White House’s willingness to leak declassified material to rattle the Kremlin or call Putin’s bluff. Indeed, in early February, the White House preemptively released details of the Kremlin’s plan to invade Ukraine to try to throw Putin off his game.
Costa Rica goes to the polls
The Central American nation of 5 million will pick a president on Sunday in a runoff vote between current Finance Minister Rodrigo Chaves, who has positioned himself as a combative populist upstart, and former president Jose Maria Figueres, a centrist who was in power in the 1990s. In the latest polling, Chaves leads with about 41% of support, against Figueres’ 38%. Chaves has taken aim at the corruption of the political class, and says he would rule using referendums to skirt institutional red tape. But he also points to his decades of service at the World Bank to argue that he’s the right guy to help revitalize Costa Rica’s economy after a pandemic-induced recession. Figueres, meanwhile, styles himself as the safer pair of hands — after all, he already knows the job. With party affiliations generally very fluid in Costa Rica, the runoff will largely come down to whether voters in this historically moderate, stable country want familiarity or to shake things up a bit.
Images of Queen Elizabeth II are displayed on the lights in London's Piccadilly Circus to mark her Platinum Jubilee in London, 6 February 2022.
Hard Numbers: UK royal jubilee, North Korea ups weapons game, Moroccan tragedy, Costa Rican runoff
70: On Sunday, Queen Elizabeth II marked her 70th year as the British monarch, making a surprise announcement about wanting Prince Charles' wife Camilla to be named "Queen Consort" when the time comes. The UK is planning a series of Platinum Jubilee festivities this year, culminating over a long weekend in early June.
9: The US and its allies say North Korea conducted a record nine missile tests in January. A new UN report says Pyongyang has ramped up its weapons program throughout the pandemic, financing it partly with stolen crypto wealth. Officials from the US, Japan, and South Korea will meet on Thursday in Honolulu to discuss these and other issues, including the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
4: A 5-year-old Moroccan boy who was trapped for four days after falling deep in a well has died. Rescuers recovered Rayan’s body on Saturday. His plight grabbed global headlines, and the country’s king expressed his condolences to the boy’s family.
27.3: Former President José María Figueres won the first round of Costa Rica's presidential election on Sunday. Figueres got 27.3% of the vote with three-quarters of the ballots in. His rival in the April 3 runoff will be Rodrigo Chaves, a former finance minister and fellow centrist.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting on the sidelines of the 11th BRICS Summit, in Brasilia, Brazil November 13, 2019.
Putin meets Xi, US takes out ISIS leader, Costa Rica votes
Putin-Xi Olympic meeting. “It's probably the most important geopolitical summit we've had in years,” says Ian Bremmer. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet on Friday in Beijing, where Putin will also attend the Winter Olympics inauguration. The two have a lot to discuss in their first in-person meeting in two years, including tensions over Ukraine, trade, and lunar exploration. Putin will likely assure Xi that Russian oil and gas will continue flowing to China. Xi, meanwhile, is expected to support Russia’s demand that NATO halt its eastward expansion. China’s leader sees the Ukraine crisis as a welcome distraction from COVID and Xinjiang. On the other hand, Xi doesn’t want a war that will hurt the economy, so he would prefer that Putin find a diplomatic resolution.
US targets ISIS leader. President Biden announced Thursday that the US conducted a pre-dawn operation in northern Syria that took out ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi. Al-Qurayshi, who replaced Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as ISIS leader in 2019, reportedly detonated a suicide vest as the Americans moved in, killing himself and family members. The operation was a rare tactical move by the Biden administration, which has veered away from getting embroiled further in Middle East conflicts. The timing is significant as it comes after an ISIS prison raid and bid to free some 12,000 ISIS members and their families. This stoked fears that the Islamic State, defeated in 2019, might be making a comeback. But some analysts believe that while ISIS sleeper cells have launched many attacks in recent years and remain active in some areas, the group’s reach and clout are still limited.
Costa Rica’s wide-open election. Voters in the 5-million strong Central American country head to the polls Sunday for a presidential election featuring more than two dozen candidates. The main concerns for Ticos, as Costa Ricans are known, are unemployment — which is topping 14% — and rampant corruption. Leading the pack with 17% support in the polls is former President José Maria Figueres, a centrist who ran the country in the 1990s. Just behind him are conservative former VP Lineth Saborío and Fabricio Alvarado, a populist evangelical preacher. But more than a third of voters are still undecided and no candidate even comes close to getting the 40% needed to avoid a runoff, so a second round in April is all but assured. A question looms over the fate of Costa Rica’s $1.8 billion IMF deal, which was negotiated by the current administration. Our friends at Eurasia Group say frontrunner Figueres would leave the pact alone, while Saborío and Alvarado, who oppose the IMF’s demand to raise taxes, would try to revise it.