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Hard Numbers: Biden’s big Taiwan mouth, foreign troops in Mozambique, Putin’s approval, unsold cars in Caracas
2: For the second time, President Joe Biden has signaled that America would respond with military force to defend Taiwan if China invades, reversing more than four decades of US "strategic ambiguity" on the issue. The White House immediately walked the comment back (again), but Beijing has taken note.
24: That's the number of countries that have sent troops to fight a jihadist insurgency in northern Mozambique since October 2017. Rwandan forces managed to retake two key ports in recent months, but fighting in the resource-rich Cabo Delgado region continues.
1: Vladimir Putin’s approval rating fell by all of one point over the last month. Despite sanctions, war, and Russia’s increasing isolation, 83% of Russians surveyed by the Levada Center still approve of their president’s leadership. Do these numbers mean much? Watch our interview with Levada boss Lev Gudkov.
1,886: No one cares about cheap gas when they can't afford to purchase a car or truck due to hyperinflation. Venezuelans bought only 1,886 light vehicles last year, a 99% drop from the country’s peak in 2006-2007, despite lifting a ban on importing used vehicles in 2019.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
What We're Watching: Suga's post-Olympics approval, Taliban take capitals, Mozambique and Rwanda vs jihadists, US offers Brazil NATO partnership
Suga's collapsing popularity: For the past 18 months, debate within Japan and around the world has raged over whether Japan could and should stage the Olympic Games amid a pandemic. For better and for worse, the Games were held and are now closed. So, what's the political fallout for Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who has governed in a state of near-constant crisis, and for his government? The good news for them is that a new poll from Asahi Shimbun, released last weekend, found that 56 percent said it was a good idea to hold the Games, and just 32 percent said it was a mistake. The bad news is that approval for Suga's government has fallen to just 28 percent, the lowest of his time in office. A slow vaccination rollout continues to cost him.This fall, Suga's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will decide when to hold both its party leadership race and the next national general election. The LDP will likely remain in power, but Suga's future is now very much in doubt.
Taliban take key capitals: As the US continues to withdraw forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban are overrunning ever-wider swaths of territory, including urban areas that they haven't controlled in decades. Over this past weekend alone, the jihadist insurgents swept through no fewer than six provincial capitals, including the strategically important northern city of Kunduz. The US has mounted fresh airstrikes — including with a few old B-52s — to help the beleaguered Afghan security forces hold the line, but with that support reportedly scheduled to stop at the end of August, the writing is on the wall: the Taliban are on their way back to controlling Afghanistan. As we recently wrote, Afghanistan's neighbors are bracing for a growing rush of refugees fleeing the war-ravaged country, and the EU, just a few years removed from the last refugee crisis, is watching warily as well.
Mozambique and Rwanda retake jihadist hotspot: Mozambican and Rwandan troops this week gained control of the gas-rich port city of Mocimboa da Praia in northern Mozambique. For more than three years, Islamist fighters loosely aligned with the Islamic State, have waged a brutal insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado province. Mocimboa da Praia, the site of one of Africa's biggest liquefied natural gas projects, has become a jihadist hub in recent years. Fighting has killed more than 3,100 Mozambicans and displaced 800,000 more. Last month, Rwanda sent 1,000 troops to support Mozambique's army, and the military alliance — which also includes support from Zimbabwe, Angola, and Botswana — managed to retake control of the port, airport, and hospital in Mocimboa da Praia. This massive feat comes after the European Union said last month that it will establish a new military mission in Mozambique to help the government push back against the increasingly brazen Islamic insurgency. Still, analysts warn, the Mozambican government needs to remain vigilant because the militants might still regroup in the months ahead.
US offers NATO partnership to Brazil? During a visit to Brazil last week, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan reportedly told President Jair Bolsonaro that if he bans the Chinese tech company Huawei from building 5G networks in his country, the US would push for Brazil to become a NATO global partner. That's not quite full membership, but it would give Brazil preferential access to arms purchases and other security perks with the world's most powerful military alliance. According to the Brazilian daily Folha de São Paulo, which broke the story, the move is a bid by Washington to get Brazil on its side in a global push to squeeze Chinese tech firms out of 5G infrastructure. But Folha also reports that there are deep divisions within the Brazilian military about this: some higher-ups are implacably hostile towards China, while others say that Brasilia shouldn't ruin relations with Brazil's largest trade partner. Currently the only Latin American country that enjoys a NATO partnership is close US-ally Colombia.
What We're Watching: Iraqi COVID ward burns, the EU's Mozambique mission, Bulgaria's punk-rock leader
Iraqi COVID ward burns: Clashes broke out Monday between police and relatives of patients at the al-Hussein hospital in Nasiriyah (Iraq's fourth largest city) who were killed when a fire broke out in the COVID-19 isolation ward. At least 92 people died, and dozens were injured when a the shoddy ward, constructed a few months ago to manage the growing COVID outbreak, became ablaze. (Iraq's Health Ministry has still not confirmed the cause of the fire.) This disaster comes as the COVID crisis has severely strained the country's already-feeble healthcare system, leading to more than 1.4 million infections and at least 17,000 COVID deaths nationwide (likely a gross undercount). Monday's blaze comes months after a deadly fire at a Baghdad hospital killed at least 82 people. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has ordered the suspension and arrest of health and defense officials in Nasiriya, but it's unclear whether this move will be enough to placate furious Iraqis who are rising up after years of neglect, economic stagnation, war, and now a pandemic. Indeed, many Iraqis who have hit the streets in recent months are asking a simple question: what do we have to lose? Only 2.5 percent of the Iraqi population has received one dose of COVID vaccine.
EU's Mozambique mission: The EU said Monday that it will establish a new military mission in Mozambique to help the government push back against an increasingly brazen Islamic insurgency that's taken over large swaths of territory in the country's northeast. Portugal, Mozambique's former colonizer, is already training Mozambican troops and will head the mission on the ground. Like the EU operation launched in Mali in 2013, European troops will train soldiers and help rebuild infrastructure, but they will not engage in combat missions. It's unclear whether the 27-member bloc will send military equipment. For more than three years, fighters belonging to the al-Shabaab militant group that claim loose ties to the Islamic State have waged a brutal insurgency in Cabo Delgado province that has killed thousands and displaced more than 700,000 people. Earlier this year, US Special Forces soldiers began training Mozambican troops as part of an effort to quash the insurgency in the country's northeast.
Will Bulgaria have a punk-rock PM? With around 99 percent of votes counted from Sunday's national election in Bulgaria, former punk-rock front man and TV personality Slavi Trifonov, who fashions himself as "anti-politics," is favored to head Bulgaria's next government. So far, Trifonov's There Is Such a People party has won 23.9 percent of the vote, just 0.2 percentage points ahead of former prime minister Boyko Borisov's conservative GERB party. Trifonov, who says he will only sit in government with specific protest parties, says he will not try to form a coalition, but will instead head a minority government. The former pop star, who has no real political agenda and did no real canvassing prior to the polls, says he is not courting groups like the anti-corruption group Stand Up! Mafia Out! that emerged from last year's rallies against the corruption plagued Borisov government. Given the slim margin, analysts say that another election cannot be ruled out, which would be Bulgaria's third in 2021. Either way, this result is likely to signal the end of Borisov's years-long grip on power, an era characterized by successive corruption scandals and allegations of ties to organized crime groups. (For your amusement, here is Trifonov rocking it out with the Ku ku band, circa 2011.)
What We're Watching: George Floyd murder trial gets underway, Myanmar military's brutal crackdown, terror siege in Mozambique
George Floyd murder trial: Ten months after George Floyd, an unarmed Black man, died under the knee of a white police officer on a Minneapolis street corner, the murder trial of that officer, Derek Chauvin, has finally kicked off . Chauvin is facing three charges including second- and third-degree murder, as well as second-degree manslaughter. The footage of Chauvin pressing his knee against Floyd's neck — and Floyd's cry of "I can't breathe" — galvanized anti-racism protests, some of which turned violent, across the United States last summer. And around the world, people in countries as varied as the Netherlands, Israel, Australia, Japan, France, Portugal, and Brazil also rose up to confront racial injustice within their own societies. Within the US, Floyd's killing has sparked a new movement pushing for more police accountability, as well as broader criminal justice reform. But it also inflamed political tensions, with many right-leaning Americans pushing back, contending that police are forced to confront dangerous situations and should be given more leeway to conduct their duties in defense of public order. Whatever happens in the Floyd trial, which is likely to take months, the outcome will surely inflame tensions and create a new wave of unrest in a very divided US — and perhaps even abroad.
Military crackdown intensifies in Myanmar: As pro-democracy protesters show no signs of backing down, Myanmar's generals have struck back with lethal force to disperse the crowds. Over the weekend the military junta launched airstrikes on ethnic groups near the Thai border, leading to 100 deaths on Saturday alone, the highest daily toll since the crisis began nine weeks ago. The military cracked down again the following day, opening fire at a funeral procession outside Yangon for a 20-year-old killed in clashes the previous day. The death toll since the military seized power on February 1 now stands at 459, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, though the true toll is thought to be higher. The Biden administration, meanwhile, says it is working on a "plan" to address the situation as fears of a possible civil war in Myanmar grow. But details are scarce, and so far, the economic sanctions that Washington has imposed on the junta appear to have had little effect.
Mozambique insurgency escalates: Dozens of people, including at least seven foreigners, were killed over the weekend when local jihadists laid siege to a town in northern Mozambique that serves as the base for a massive offshore natural gas development. For more than three years now, fighters belonging to the "Al-Shabaab" militant group have been waging a brutal insurgency in the surrounding Cabo Delgado province that has killed thousands and displaced close to 700,000 people. Although the fighters claim loose ties to the Islamic State — and have adopted familiar ISIS tactics of beheadings, kidnappings, and ruthless destruction of schools and hospitals — domestic economic grievances appear to play a big role: Cabo Delgado is one of the poorest regions of Mozambique, and many locals don't feel they are set to benefit from the recent discovery of massive natural gas reserves there. Given the natural gas stakes, the area is crawling with foreign mercenary groups hired to protect energy company workers. The US recently announced that its special forces would work with Mozambican troops to quash the insurgency. Given this weekend's brazen attack, the militants don't appear to be overly concerned about Uncle Sam just yet.
Protesters gather during the Women's March 4 Justice in Melbourne.
What We’re Watching: Australian women demand change, Mexico’s immigration crackdown, US vs ISIS in Mozambique
Australian women are fed up: Australia's conservative government is facing intense scrutiny after tens of thousands of women marched across the country earlier this week to protest sexual abuse and harassment, which they say is rife — including within the "old boys' club" of politicians in Canberra. The protests follow a spate of recent rape allegations made by former staffers against powerful Canberra insiders, including the sitting Attorney General Christian Porter. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has come under fire for siding with Porter, who vehemently denies the decades-old rape allegations, and for initially refusing to back a thorough investigation. The country's next federal election isn't until next year (though it could come sooner) but the opposition Labour Party has already benefited from the outrage at Morrison's Liberal party, and is pulling ahead in the polls.
Mexico cracks down on US-bound migrants: In the weeks after US President Joe Biden took office, Mexican authorities detained more than a thousand migrants from Central America who were making their way towards the US. Biden has pledged to make his immigration policy more humane than his predecessor's — he has stopped the deportation of unaccompanied minors and allowed asylum seekers to remain in the US while their petitions are processed. But he is now contending with a surge of arrivals that officials say is now the worst crisis along the US southern border in decades. Last month, US border agents detained or expelled the highest number of people in two years. The US has pledged to do more to address the violence and poverty that are driving more and more people to flee their homes in countries like Honduras and El Salvador. But in the meantime, the pressure is mounting not only on Washington, but also on Mexico, which is concerned about large numbers of undocumented migrants crossing its territory, particularly if they are being smuggled by criminal gangs.
US helps Mozambique fight ISIS: US special forces are training Mozambican marines as part of the local military's latest push to expel Islamic State-allied militants who control vast swaths of northern Cabo Delgado province. The insurgency has caused a major humanitarian crisis: more than 2,500 people have been killed and over 700,000 have fled their homes over the past four years, while kids as young as 11 have been beheaded by the insurgents, according to Save the Children. But for Mozambique it's also about the cash: the insurgents control a key port with access to the country's lucrative offshore natural gas reserves. Meanwhile, as neighboring countries like Tanzania watch the ISIS foothold nervously, Maputo is running out of options: when Russian mercenaries didn't get the job done, the Mozambicans then turned to South African hired guns, and finally to the EU (which offered training but no boots on the ground). Now it's America's turn.What We're Watching: Malaysian PM hopeful, Mozambique needs EU help vs ISIS, Polish fur politics
Malaysian political drama: Malaysia's (eternal) opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim says he finally has enough votes in parliament to be appointed prime minister, seven months after the coalition that was going to support him collapsed amid an internal revolt that also forced out 95-year-old Mahathir Mohamed as head of the government. Two years ago, Mahathir — who governed Malaysia from 1980 to 2003 — shocked the country by running in the 2018 election and defeating his former party UMNO, which had dominated Malaysian politics since independence in 1956. After winning, Mahathir agreed to hand over power to Anwar — a former protégé with whom he had a falling out in the late 1990s — but Mahathir's government didn't last long enough to do the swap. Will Anwar now realize his lifelong dream of becoming Malaysia's prime minister? Stay tuned for the next parliamentary session in November.
Mozambique seeks EU help amid ISIS crisis: After an army assault failed last month to reclaim a strategic port from Islamic State-linked fighters, Mozambique is now turning to the European Union for help, so far to train its military. The jihadis, who took control of the port in northern Cabo Delgado province in mid-July, are still holding out despite frequent attacks by Mozambican soldiers assisted by foreign mercenaries. Meanwhile, the government is running out of ideas for how to put end to a standoff that is affecting major foreign investments in offshore liquified natural gas projects that need access to the port. If the crisis — which has already killed over 1,500 people and displaced more than 300,000 since the rebels first tried to seize the port in 2017 — continues, we're watching to see if Mozambique asks the EU to go beyond training military assistance launch its third combat mission to Africa to prevent ISIS from gaining a foothold in the southern part of the continent.
Polish government cracks up over… fur? Poland's right-wing coalition government is on the brink of collapse after a massive internal revolt over a bill that outlaws the fur industry and prohibits the ritual slaughter of meat for export. The bill was championed by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the dominant Law and Justice party (PiS), but it provoked a backlash from rural Poles and farmers. In the end, more than a dozen PiS members voted against it, as did the members of junior coalition partner United Poland. The rift isn't just about fur: The leader of United Poland, the ultranationalist Zbigniew Ziobro, is staking a claim to leadership of the Polish conservative movement that has put him directly at odds with PiS party elders. Senior PiS members say they are willing to ditch United Poland, form a minority government, and call fresh elections. But that's a big gamble: in 2019 the PiS managed to cobble together a majority only with United Poland's help.
What We’re Watching: Japanese PM's health woes, ISIS in Mozambique, Eastern Med tensions rise
How sick is Shinzo Abe? On the day that he became the longest-serving prime minister in Japan's history, Shinzo Abe went to the hospital. His visit on Monday to the Keio University medical center was his second in little more than a week, and while Abe says it was just a follow-up to go over earlier tests, concerns about his health and political future are now swirling in Japan. Abe is known to have a chronic intestinal condition called ulcerative colitis — back in 2007 the disease flared up so badly that it forced him to quit after a year in office. He was elected again in 2012 and has stayed in power ever since. But recently, his aides say, Abe has become badly fatigued as the Japanese government struggles to manage the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The economy has just suffered its worst quarterly contraction on record, and Abe's approval ratings have been sinking for months. His term is set to end next October, but if the leader of the world's third largest economy can't make it that long, his deputy would take over as caretaker, setting off a furious succession struggle within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
Mozambique vs ISIS: The Mozambican army is preparing a major assault to reclaim a strategic port in northern Cabo Delgado province taken over two weeks ago by fighters affiliated with the Islamic State, which for the first time is gaining a foothold in Southern Africa. The troops — assisted by foreign mercenaries from a South African private military contractor — aim to wrest control of the port away from the rebels, partly to keep international investment flowing to major offshore liquified natural gas projects that Mozambique desperately needs revenues from to prop up its weak economy. The wider story is whether ISIS will capitalize on its unexpected success in Cabo Delgado to target other countries in the region. The list would include South Africa, which the jihadists have already threatened to attack if Pretoria supports Mozambique's efforts to eject them from Cabo Delgado. Over 1,500 people have died so far in clashes between Mozambican troops and the rebels since the latter first tried to seize the port in 2017.
Cool it, Greeks and Turks: German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Tuesday called on Greece and Turkey to de-escalate their dispute over offshore hydrocarbon rights in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, as both countries hold separate naval drills in the contested region off Cyprus. The latest episode in this saga started when Turkey over the weekend deployed a maritime research vessel in waters claimed by Athens. Since then, both sides have engaged in a back-and-forth of fiery rhetoric that has made many fear that these two historically bitter Mediterranean rivals — which have long quarreled over ethnically divided Cyprus and EU-bound refugees, and more recently turning Istanbul's Hagia Sophia into a mosque — may now be on the brink of war. The Greeks have threatened to pursue EU sanctions against the Turks if Ankara refuses to halt its plans to explore for oil and gas in disputed waters, while Turkey insists the area is part of its own continental shelf. We are watching to see if Germany succeeds in the diplomatic effort to ease tensions, and whether France (another Mediterranean player) will weigh in, probably to support fellow EU members Cyprus and Greece.