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Gaming out a US-Venezuela war with ambassador James Story
The Trump administration is ramping up pressure on Venezuela, with the USS Gerald R. Ford deployed to the region, CIA covert operations approved by the White House, and strikes on suspected narco‑trafficking vessels attributed to Caracas. Many analysts now see regime change as the ultimate goal. On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer and former US Ambassador James Story game out what a US intervention in Venezuela might look like—and more importantly, how the US would manage the aftermath.
Story points out that while removing Nicolás Maduro may sound feasible, rebuilding Venezuela’s institutions, economy and social fabric would be far harder. “The country is a failed state,” he says. “You’re going to need the military to help you secure peace while you rebuild.” As Washington talks of sanction relief and diplomatic pressure, Story asks: does the US have the capability, resources or will to stay for the long haul?
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Trump’s risky Venezuela strategy, explained
So the United States is gearing up for what looks like regime change. And I think it's a bad idea.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see the back of Maduro. He’s a brutal dictator who's rigged elections, destroyed Venezuela's economy, overseen a humanitarian catastrophe that's displaced 9 million people, and turned his country into a narco-state playground for transnational cartels and Cuban intelligence. The opposition leader María Corina Machado is a genuine democrat who won the Nobel Peace Prize this year. Her running mate Edmundo González won last year's presidential election in a landslide that Maduro brazenly stole.
If we lived in a world where removing tyrants by force was very likely to produce better outcomes, I'd be all for it. But we don’t live in that world.
The 1989 Panama regime-change intervention gets trotted out as the model to emulate here – quick, surgical, successful. Remove Manuel Noriega, restore an elected government, get out. But Venezuela is not Panama.
Panama had 2.5 million people; Venezuela has nearly 30 million. Panama is tiny; Venezuela spans a territory the size of Texas and Oklahoma combined. The US had deep knowledge of Panamanian politics and faced minimal armed resistance; even then, the operation killed hundreds of civilians and left lasting scars.
Venezuela is far more complicated. It's got a heavily armed, economically entrenched, Cuban-supported military apparatus. Dissident FARC units. The ELN. Hezbollah. The Tren de Aragua gang. Armed colectivos loyal to the regime. And American intelligence on the ground has been spotty – which is why, despite months of military buildup, the US has mostly been blowing up fishing boats it claims are running cocaine, killing over 80 people since September without much evidence to show for it (and with little legal justification).
The Trump administration's theory of victory is that targeted strikes will crack Maduro's inner circle. Hit enough cartel assets, maybe take out figures like Iván Hernández Dala – who runs military counterintelligence and is responsible for kidnapping Americans – and senior military leaders will do the math and push Maduro out.
It's not crazy. These guys aren't ideologues; they're in it for money, power, and – ultimately – survival. Change their risk calculus enough and maybe Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López or other top brass decide Maduro isn't worth dying for.
But if that pressure campaign fails – and history suggests it will – Trump will face pressure from Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe to escalate by targeting Maduro directly. A full ground invasion remains off the table despite Trump saying Monday that he doesn't "rule anything out." The president wants to avoid the political costs of a botched operation or a lengthy quagmire; he’s increasingly comfortable with limited strikes à la Iran.
But then what? Even if the US manages to force Maduro out, the most likely outcome is an internal transition. Someone from the regime takes over, probably from the military or existing power structure. Maybe it's Vice President Delcy Rodríguez or her brother Jorge, the National Assembly president. They're no democrats but they’re pragmatic, have negotiated with Washington before, and could potentially mend fences while keeping enough of the state apparatus functioning to prevent anarchy.
Getting from that to an actual opposition-led government with Machado or González at the helm? That's the hard part. It requires street pressure, contentious negotiations, and credible guarantees for the security apparatus – you know, the guys currently running drugs, torturing regime critics, and starving millions of their fellow citizens. Some need to stay for the sake of stability; others need to go because of their crimes. Who decides which is which? Who enforces it?
Not Machado, who has moral authority but no armed forces and limited organizational capacity on the ground. When I interviewed her on GZERO World earlier this year, she told me she has plans for the first 100 hours and the first 100 days of a transition. But Ambassador James Story, who served as US Ambassador to Venezuela from 2018 to 2023, thinks Machado needs to be much more public about her plans for regime figures. "There needs to be a plan in place that says when we change, not everybody is gonna be out," he told me. “De-Baathification was a disaster.” No matter how unpalatable it sounds, some form of amnesty or integration will be necessary.
This is where the "anything is better than Maduro" argument falls apart. Not because Maduro doesn't deserve to go – he does. But because US-led regime change risks creating the kind of chaos that produces more refugee flows, more drug trafficking, and more regional instability. Iraq taught us that toppling a dictator is easy; building a functioning state is hard. Libya taught us that even "leading from behind" can produce chaos. Afghanistan taught us that twenty years and trillions of dollars can't conjure competent governance from scratch.
Now, Venezuela isn’t Iraq or Libya. The country is not riven by deep ethnic, religious, or sectarian cleavages. Any violence following Maduro's fall would likely be short-lived, rather than a protracted civil war. But the underlying problem remains: removing a dictator creates a vacuum, and vacuums get filled by whoever has the most organization and firepower. Not necessarily by the people with the best democratic credentials.
These are risks the Trump team doesn’t seem equipped to manage. Rubio is a true believer who sees Caracas as the linchpin for toppling the regimes in Cuba and Nicaragua – a domino theory for the 21st century. Trump himself is uncomfortable with prolonged foreign entanglements and wants quick wins he can sell to his MAGA base. That's a recipe for going in hard, declaring victory prematurely, and leaving a mess behind.
What Venezuela needs is a multilateral diplomatic solution with buy-in from Brazil, Colombia, and other regional players. Back-channel negotiations to guarantee safe exit for regime figures. A phased transition roadmap – the kind that worked in Brazil and Uruguay – that brings in opposition leadership gradually while keeping enough institutions functional. And a commitment to stick around – diplomatically, economically, maybe even with security assistance – for years, not months. Does any of that sound like Trump 2.0 to you?
There's one asterisk. Trump's Gaza ceasefire, like the Abraham Accords during his first term, showed that the president can occasionally pull off complex diplomatic breakthroughs when he's personally invested and has capable people executing. Maybe – and it’s a big maybe – Venezuela could become that if Trump sees it as legacy-defining. But stacking maybes on top of maybes isn't a bankable strategy.
Even as it has ramped up preparations for military escalation, the White House has simultaneously reopened negotiations with Maduro – "I talk to anybody," Trump told reporters Monday, though he rejected Maduro’s offer to step down after a two-to-three-year transition. It’s classic Trump: maximize pressure while keeping diplomatic options open. But if talks fail – and they probably will – the massive buildup leaves him little choice but to strike, likely before the year’s end.
So here we are. Maduro needs to go. But we've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well.
People carry Venezuela's national flag to protest the election results that awarded Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro a third term, in Maracaibo, Venezuela, on July 30, 2024.
US declares Edmundo González rightful winner of Venezuela election
Based on exit polls from around 90% of the votes from last Sunday's election, opposition leaders say González beat Maduro by a large margin, and international pressure is building against Maduro. On Thursday, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia called on Caracas to release detailed tallies of the vote, and the European Union has said it would not recognize Maduro’s claimed victory without independent certification of the election results.
Still, the US announcement is unlikely to change anything on the streets of Venezuela, where protesters have been demanding Maduro to accept defeat. Demonstrations, which have led to violent clashes with authorities and hundreds of arrests this week, are ongoing.
But Washington's move is likely to spur on the protesters. President Joe Biden, meanwhile, is mulling whether to reintroduce sanctions against Venezuela, despite it being a critical source of oil.A demonstrator reacts when Molotov cocktails hit the ground in front of security forces during protests against election results after Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro claimed victory in Sunday's presidential election, in Puerto La Cruz, Venezuela.
Venezuelans take to the streets after Maduro claims victory
Thousands of Venezuelans descended on downtown Caracas Monday to protest strongman President Nicolás Maduro’s claimed victory in Sunday’s elections. Independent exit polls suggested that opposition candidate Edmundo González defeated Maduro — an authoritarian who has overseen economic decline in the oil-rich nation — by a sizable margin.
What began as isolated spontaneous outbursts around the capital turned into a major demonstration by the evening. Protesters chanted “They robbed us!” and waved a banner reading “Venezuela, I want you to be free” in Spanish while authorities responded with riot police, tear gas, armored cars, and paramilitaries with firearms. In the eastern city of Cumaná, protesters reportedly tried to reach the national election authority headquarters but were repulsed by National Guard troops.
International pressure: Opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was banned from running by Maduro’s government, said Tuesday that Maduro’s “departure is irreversible” after receiving exit polls from 71% of polling places, which she says proves the opposition won beyond all doubt.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday said the US had “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people,” and called on election officials to publicly release “detailed” vote tabulations. For the time being, however, Washington does not plan to revoke the oil export licenses that were meant to incentivize Maduro to hold a fair election.
Blinken’s sentiments were echoed by leaders from Chile, Uruguay, Peru, Panama, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Argentina, and Guatemala. By late Monday, Venezuela had expelled all diplomats from those countries, plus the Dominican Republic.
What we are watching: It will be surprising if the CNE releases “detailed polling data that dispels international doubts,” says Risa Grais-Targow, an expert on Venezuela at Eurasia Group, but without it, foreign pressure seems likely to grow.
Perhaps more importantly, the will of the opposition and the people to resist what they see as a stolen election will be determinative. We’re watching for protests to continue — and Maduro’s response to become more heavy-handed.
“The military continues to completely support Nicolás Maduro,” says Eurasia Group and GZERO Media president Ian Bremmer. “And that means the willingness and ability to use force to suppress and repress opposition is very high.”
For more on Venezuela’s stolen election, watch Ian’s latest Quick Take here.Hard Numbers: Biden’s big Taiwan mouth, foreign troops in Mozambique, Putin’s approval, unsold cars in Caracas
2: For the second time, President Joe Biden has signaled that America would respond with military force to defend Taiwan if China invades, reversing more than four decades of US "strategic ambiguity" on the issue. The White House immediately walked the comment back (again), but Beijing has taken note.
24: That's the number of countries that have sent troops to fight a jihadist insurgency in northern Mozambique since October 2017. Rwandan forces managed to retake two key ports in recent months, but fighting in the resource-rich Cabo Delgado region continues.
1: Vladimir Putin’s approval rating fell by all of one point over the last month. Despite sanctions, war, and Russia’s increasing isolation, 83% of Russians surveyed by the Levada Center still approve of their president’s leadership. Do these numbers mean much? Watch our interview with Levada boss Lev Gudkov.
1,886: No one cares about cheap gas when they can't afford to purchase a car or truck due to hyperinflation. Venezuelans bought only 1,886 light vehicles last year, a 99% drop from the country’s peak in 2006-2007, despite lifting a ban on importing used vehicles in 2019.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
COVID lockdowns in Colombia forcing refugees to return to Venezuela
GZERO World takes viewers to Colombia as Venezuelan refugees risk everything once again—this time to cross back into their home country. As pandemic lockdowns and economic downturn threaten jobs and livelihood in Colombia, many are left with no choice but to return to Venezuela and an uncertain future.
Kendry Fernando tells his story as he walks hundreds of miles with his family, looking for work, and considering a return home to repressive conditions in Maduro's Venezuela.
Guaidó to GZERO: "Freedom" is the goal
Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader recognized as Venezuela's interim president by more than 50 countries, returned on Monday to Venezuela after nearly two weeks abroad.
His homecoming reignites the contest for power between him and President Nicolás Maduro, who still controls much of the government and the military, despite plummeting popularity and a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Guaidó shared a few words with GZERO Media just moments after he landed and rushed into a crowd of cheering supporters at Caracas' Simón Bolívar Airport. His comments are among the first he has made to foreign media since returning to Venezuela.