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Could the US really invade Venezuela?
If the US does intervene in Venezuela, former US Ambassador James Story explains why the real battle begins after boots hit the ground.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Ambassador James Story, former US envoy to Venezuela, to examine one of the most urgent questions in US‑Latin America policy: could Washington go to war with Caracas? With US naval assets and aircraft carriers now stationed off the Venezuelan coast and President Trump declining to rule out deploying troops, Story says regime change is only the beginning.
“The easy part would be getting rid of Maduro,” Story says. “The hard work happens after that.” With lawlessness, paramilitary control, narco‑trafficking networks and a collapsed economy, Venezuela is broken. Story warns: “How do you trust any part of a government whose sole purpose was keeping a criminal organization functioning?”
Even if opposition leaders like María Corina Machado or Edmundo González take power, how do you rebuild faith in a government that, for decades, served only to protect a criminal enterprise? “You’re going to need the military,” Story says, “but it’s the same military that’s been keeping Maduro in power.”
The bigger question? If the US plays a role in removing Maduro, who takes the lead on what comes next—and how much are Americans really willing to take on?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
- Regime change in America’s backyard? ›
- Is Trump aiming for regime change in Venezuela? ›
- Can Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado unseat Nicolás Maduro? ›
- Is the US about to invade Venezuela? ›
- Trump wouldn't actually invade Venezuela...would he? ›
- Trump’s risky Venezuela strategy, explained ›
Venezuela's opposition leader: Maduro's regime "is not a conventional dictatorship
"This is not a conventional dictatorship. Venezuela has been turned into the criminal hub of the Americas." Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado warns that under Nicolás Maduro, the country has become a haven for drug cartels and terrorist groups. "Networks of smuggling, even women and children being used for prostitution—this is dramatic," she says, emphasizing that Venezuela’s deepening ties to transnational crime threaten the entire Western Hemisphere.
Machado argues that stopping Maduro requires more than diplomacy—it demands cutting off the regime’s illicit revenue streams. She points to the recent revocation of US oil sanctions relief as proof that international pressure is working. "That's precisely what's starting to happen right now," she notes, adding that fractures within Maduro’s power structure are emerging. But she insists more must be done: "Those that today torture, disappear, and kill Venezuelans must get it very clear that they will be held accountable." For Machado, the goal is not just to weaken Maduro but to push for a peaceful, democratic transition.
Watch full episode: Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Can Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado unseat Nicolás Maduro?
Venezuela stands at a crossroads. Amid fraud allegations and Nicolás Maduro’s controversial third term, opposition leader María Corina Machado fights from the shadows. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with Machado about Venezuela’s future, America’s role, and why she believes Maduro’s grip on power is weaker than it seems. For Machado, it’s not just about toppling a dictator; it’s about rebuilding democracy in Venezuela from the ground up. The real question isn’t just how Maduro’s rule ends but what comes next.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
- Maduro declares victory in Venezuela, opposition cries fraud ›
- Venezuelans head to the polls as Maduro warns of a “bloodbath” ›
- Meet María Corina Machado, the woman who scares Venezuela's dictator ›
- Venezuela’s opposition leader on Trump, Maduro, and why the ballot box isn’t the answer this time ›
- Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado says Maduro's days are numbered ›
- Opposition leader flees Venezuela, Argentina heads to ICC ›
- US declares Edmundo González rightful winner of Venezuela election ›
- Maduro’s not going anywhere. What comes next for Venezuela? ›
- New Venezuela talks: Maduro won, so what’s there to talk about? ›
Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado says Maduro's days are numbered
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer is joined by the most prominent opposition leader in Venezuela, María Corina Machado. Machado has a long political history as a center-right opposition figure in Venezuela, but she became the leader of that opposition during the presidential election last summer. That’s when the regime-friendly electoral council declared Nicolás Maduro the winner, despite widespread allegations of fraud and international condemnation from the US and Europe. But this is more than just a Venezuela story, it’s an American one, too. The Biden era saw an unprecedented influx of Venezuelan migrants to sanctuary cities. Under President Trump’s administration so far, thousands of Venezuelans have been arrested, and many have already been deported. Some of them, purported gang members, were shipped off to a black hole of a prison in El Salvador. And in recent weeks, Trump has canceled Venezuelan oil licenses and threatened steep sanctions and tariffs on Maduro’s regime.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- Venezuela defies the US on elections ›
- Opposition leader flees Venezuela, Argentina heads to ICC ›
- Maduro’s not going anywhere. What comes next for Venezuela? ›
- New Venezuela talks: Maduro won, so what’s there to talk about? ›
- Q&A: Venezuela’s opposition leader on Trump, Maduro, and why the ballot box isn’t the answer this time - GZERO Media ›
- Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro? - GZERO Media ›
Meet María Corina Machado, the woman who scares Venezuela's dictator
Born and trained as an engineer, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has become a powerful symbol of resistance. Once a fringe opposition politician who shocked the nation by interrupting Hugo Chavez, she now leads the charge against the dictatorial regime of his successor, Nicolás Maduro. Although she has gone into hiding, she has not kept quiet. Through remote interviews and media outreach, she's rallied support for the opposition and praised right-leaning Latin American leaders like Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. She defended the Trump administration’s recent move to cancel oil and gas licenses that had allowed energy companies to operate in Venezuela.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
- Venezuelans head to the polls as Maduro warns of a “bloodbath” ›
- Is Maduro behind a murder in Chile? ›
- Maduro’s not going anywhere. What comes next for Venezuela? ›
- Why Washington is chatting up Nicolás Maduro again ›
- Q&A: Venezuela’s opposition leader on Trump, Maduro, and why the ballot box isn’t the answer this time - GZERO Media ›
- Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro? - GZERO Media ›
A demonstrator reacts when Molotov cocktails hit the ground in front of security forces during protests against election results after Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro claimed victory in Sunday's presidential election, in Puerto La Cruz, Venezuela.
Venezuelans take to the streets after Maduro claims victory
Thousands of Venezuelans descended on downtown Caracas Monday to protest strongman President Nicolás Maduro’s claimed victory in Sunday’s elections. Independent exit polls suggested that opposition candidate Edmundo González defeated Maduro — an authoritarian who has overseen economic decline in the oil-rich nation — by a sizable margin.
What began as isolated spontaneous outbursts around the capital turned into a major demonstration by the evening. Protesters chanted “They robbed us!” and waved a banner reading “Venezuela, I want you to be free” in Spanish while authorities responded with riot police, tear gas, armored cars, and paramilitaries with firearms. In the eastern city of Cumaná, protesters reportedly tried to reach the national election authority headquarters but were repulsed by National Guard troops.
International pressure: Opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was banned from running by Maduro’s government, said Tuesday that Maduro’s “departure is irreversible” after receiving exit polls from 71% of polling places, which she says proves the opposition won beyond all doubt.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday said the US had “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people,” and called on election officials to publicly release “detailed” vote tabulations. For the time being, however, Washington does not plan to revoke the oil export licenses that were meant to incentivize Maduro to hold a fair election.
Blinken’s sentiments were echoed by leaders from Chile, Uruguay, Peru, Panama, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Argentina, and Guatemala. By late Monday, Venezuela had expelled all diplomats from those countries, plus the Dominican Republic.
What we are watching: It will be surprising if the CNE releases “detailed polling data that dispels international doubts,” says Risa Grais-Targow, an expert on Venezuela at Eurasia Group, but without it, foreign pressure seems likely to grow.
Perhaps more importantly, the will of the opposition and the people to resist what they see as a stolen election will be determinative. We’re watching for protests to continue — and Maduro’s response to become more heavy-handed.
“The military continues to completely support Nicolás Maduro,” says Eurasia Group and GZERO Media president Ian Bremmer. “And that means the willingness and ability to use force to suppress and repress opposition is very high.”
For more on Venezuela’s stolen election, watch Ian’s latest Quick Take here.Colombia hosts meeting on Venezuelan political crisis.
Colombia convenes new Venezuela summit
Representatives from about 20 countries, including the US, gathered in Bogotá on Tuesday as part of the Colombian government’s push to restart talks between Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and the fractious opposition. Neither side has sent representatives, but both say they support the event.
How’d we get here? Several years ago, Maduro, who had mismanaged the economy and rigged his own re-election, was on the ropes. As popular protests swelled, millions fled his country, and fresh US sanctions choked off crucial revenues. But opposition infighting and global demand for oil — Venezuela has more of it than anyone else — kept him firmly in power.
Now, with elections approaching next year, the opposition – along with the US, EU, and most of the region – wants the powerful but unpopular Maduro to guarantee a level playing field. He, however, wants the US to ease Trump-era sanctions. Maduro has shown he can hang on pretty well under sanctions, but he may not want to risk a rerun of the 2018 protests over an overtly unfair vote.
A previous round of talks in Mexico stalled late last year, but Colombia’s left-wing President Gustavo Petro is hoping that his good relations with neighboring Caracas will enable him to broker a new deal where others have failed.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro.
Maduro’s not going anywhere. What comes next for Venezuela?
Just four years ago, most observers would have bet good money that Nicolás Maduro’s days at the top were numbered.
In 2018, Venezuela’s strongman president had declared himself the winner after a reelection battle that was broadly considered to be rigged. Maduro’s subsequent crackdown on anti-government protesters made him one of the world’s most reviled and isolated leaders.
It’s now been 10 years since Maduro, the foreign minister at the time, was handed the top job, and his power is more entrenched than ever. How has the Venezuelan despot survived and what might this mean for the country's politics and its people?
Meet Maduro. A former bus driver from Caracas, Maduro got his political training as a young man in Cuba. Upon returning to Venezuela, he became a big shot in the union movement and in leftist politics as a member of the United Socialist Party.
An avid backer of Chavismo – the left-wing populism championed by his predecessor Hugo Chávez – Maduro was tapped to take on presidential responsibilities after Chávez's death in 2013.
Like Chávez, Maduro’s authoritarian predilections were apparent from the get-go. Amid growing popular discontent, in 2015 he declared “Operation Liberation and Protection of the People” (the irony!) to address what he called the country’s growing security concerns. Maduro deployed 80,000 security forces to round up alleged detractors, leading to scores of extrajudicial killings.
This leadership style of quashing dissent and jailing political opponents and journalists came to a head after the widely disputed 2018 election, when thousands of Venezuelans took to the streets to protest Maduro’s win, broadly dubbed a sham. The regime’s brutal response to the protests – security forces killed dozens of demonstrators and shuttered independent news organizations – further solidified Maduro’s pariah status in many parts of the world.
The sanctions weapon. The US has used sanctions as a bludgeon against Venezuela since 2006, when the Bush administration banned arms sales to the Chávez regime due to its ties to rogue states, like Cuba and Iran.
But this campaign ramped up a lot during the Maduro years. The Trump administration, in particular, adopted a merciless approach to Caracas, enforcing sanctions that cut it off from US financial markets, essentially limiting its oil sales to the black market and prohibiting purchases of Venezuelan debt.
Venezuela’s economy has since been through the wringer. From once having the highest per capita income rate in Latin America, Venezuela is now flailing. Starved of investment, hyperinflation topped an absurd 65,000% in 2018. The country’s oil output has remained sluggish over the past decade despite the fact that it has the biggest liquid gold reserves in the entire world. Consider that in 1998 Venezuela was producing around 3 million barrels of crude per day – that number slipped to 626,000 in 2020.
To be sure, years of corruption, underinvestment, and mismanagement have also pummeled the petrostate’s economy. In 1997, one independent group claimed that around $100 billion had been embezzled from the state oil company in the preceding 25 years.
Given the heft of Western sanctions, how have Venezuela and Maduro managed to stay afloat?
Who’s isolating whom? Taking a page out of Chávez’s playbook, Maduro has worked hard to cultivate ties with other heavily sanctioned states and US rivals like Iran, Russia, and China, as well as Turkey.
Reflecting its mercantile approach to geopolitics, Beijing has given Caracas billions of dollars worth of loans in recent years in exchange for oil. China has also helped Caracas deliver the goods in violation of US sanctions. Moscow has similarly doled out cash to help keep Caracas afloat.
Maduro has also deepened relations with the US’ forever enemy, Iran, with Caracas sending Tehran billions of dollars worth of gold in exchange for oil, gas, and food. The friendship is deep, with Iran reportedly set to revamp the Paraguana Refining Center, Venezuela's largest, in the near term. Crucially, the overhaul will replace US technology – originally used to build Venezuela's oil infrastructure – with … Chinese and Iranian parts.
Moreover, under Maduro, illicit economies – including trading of illegal drugs, gold, and oil – made up a whopping 21% of Venezuela's gross domestic product in 2021.
The perks of a ”pink tide.” Maduro has benefited enormously from the region’s changing politics. A “pink tide” across Latin America in recent months has seen a slew of leftist governments come to power that are more sympathetic to Maduro’s socialist, anti-imperialist agenda.
“For a long time, diplomacy in Latin America wasn't very ideological because state sovereignty was the most sacrosanct principle,” says Will Freeman, a Latin America expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Governments in the region are now taking a more ideological approach to diplomacy,” resulting in leftist leaders in Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and elsewhere wanting to deepen ties with the socialist in Caracas.
A dysfunctional opposition. It’s been a boon for Maduro that the opposition has proven to be lackluster and underwhelming. Many place the blame at the feet of former wunderkind Juan Guaidó.
After the 2018 election, Guaidó, then president of the opposition-controlled legislature, set up a shadow government backed by the West. But critics say Guaidó made no progress in moving the country toward new elections and that he failed to get the military or courts onside. Popular support has also nosedived, with just 6% of Venezuelans polled in Nov. 2022 saying that they’d vote for him.
After Guaidó’s allies voted to remove him from office in December, the former de facto leader said the move would create a “power vacuum” that would only boost Maduro.
And he might have been right: The Biden administration recently moved to ease some sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector. While this has largely been aimed at boosting production and keeping global prices down amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, it’s hard to imagine that the White House would have felt as comfortable making overtures to the Maduro regime if there was a powerful and popular opposition to deal with in Caracas.
“Venezuela is fixed.” Not quite. Feeling emboldened by Maduro’s staying power, some Venezuelans have adopted the slogan “Venezuela is fixed” — a tongue-in-cheek reference used in the country when conditions mildly improve. They point to the fact that the International Monetary Fund recently predicted that Venezuela's economy will grow by 6% this year, while the poverty rate decreased for the first time in seven years.
But the current political dynamic is more a result of “broad disillusionment and disengagement from politics,” says Freeman, adding that “Maduro has not become popular by any stretch of the imagination.”
What’s more, the humanitarian situation remains grim. Half the country lives in poverty, down from 65% in 2021, giving rise to one of the world's biggest refugee crises in recent years. Venezuela is also one of the world’s most unequal states, with the wealthiest Venezuelans 70 times richer than the poorest. It’s for this reason, Freeman says, that what we've seen is “more of an economic recovery on the surface” only. The foundation remains rotten.
What now? Maduro’s political future is as secure as ever. But there’s no quick fix for Venezuela's economy or its people. Indeed, it’ll take years of investment and billions of dollars to modernize the country's energy infrastructure in order to boost output. And while other petrostates are looking to diversify their economies, Caracas is a million steps behind.
And what about the vote next year? “The elections will be very unfree and very unfair,” Freeman says, adding that “Maduro will steal them if he needs to, though he may not need to if the opposition remains this divided.”
For now, at least, Maduro, often derided as “the bus driver” from Caracas, is likely feeling pretty good about things.
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- Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado says Maduro's days are numbered - GZERO Media ›
- Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro? - GZERO Media ›
- Venezuela's opposition leader: Maduro's regime "is not a conventional dictatorship - GZERO Media ›