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Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva participates in the Inauguration Ceremony of the GWM Factory in Iracemapolis, state of Sao Paulo, on August 15, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Brazil’s left-wing leader makes a comeback, Israel considers Gaza options, India and China explore border drawings
Brazil’s Lula finds a recipe for left-wing LatAm success
Brazil is now subject to 50% tariffs from the United States, but President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appears to be reveling in it: his approval rating jumped another three percentage points in August, per Genial/Quaest polling, reaching 46%, up from 43% in July and 40% in May. It appears Lula’s positioning as a foil to US President Donald Trump – just see his recent interviews with international outlets – is paying dividends. At a time when much of South America appears to be tilting right, the Brazilian leader may have found a recipe for keeping the left in power.
Escalation or ceasefire: what next for Gaza?
Israel reiterated Tuesday that it won’t accept a ceasefire until Hamas releases all 50 remaining hostages – 20 of whom are believed alive. This comes after Hamas officials said it had accepted a Gaza ceasefire deal, one that would return 28 of the hostages, including 10 of those who are living. Even if the truce does come to fruition, it won’t necessarily spell the end for war in the enclave: Israeli forces are ramping up activity as it prepares to invade Gaza City, calling up an extra 60,000 reservists which doubles the total number currently active.
India and China look to settle disputed border
As India-US relations worsen under Trump’s tariffs, New Delhi’s relationship with China is looking up. India and China agreed this week to explore demarcating their disputed border, a move both sides hailed as a step toward easing decades of tensions. The decision came during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s first visit to Delhi in three years, ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expected trip to China for a regional summit. While the border remains fraught, both governments say progress could build trust and spill over into other cooperation, from trade to travel. Next stop for Wang: Pakistan, India’s rival and China’s longtime ally, who would be miffed without a visit.OPINION: Here’s why I can’t watch soccer like a normal person
Politics and history have a way of intruding on – even ruining – everything for me, and these days, it’s soccer’s turn.
Right now, most of the Western Hemisphere is engrossed in two major soccer tournaments. In Europe, it’s the Euros, where the Old Countries are battling it out. In the Americas, it’s the Copa América, where the New Ones are.
All told, the countries participating in the two tournaments are home to more than a billion people. So, it’s a big deal – basically two half-filled World Cups at once.
The on-field dramas are rich enough. Will this be the last time an aging Lionel Messi, perhaps the greatest player ever, puts on his country’s uniform? Is this unexpectedly strong Venezuela team for real? Across the ocean, how stacked is host country Germany still? Can England manage to not disappoint?
That’s all good, but when I watch the matches, look at the flags, and read the names on the jerseys, I can’t help but see or think about different things entirely – political things.
So when, for example, French striker Kylian Mbappé, whose parents are from Cameroon and Algeria, puts one in the back of the net, I don’t just wonder whether he really is the best player in the world now (is he?). I also immediately think of the backlash against immigration in France, which – as elsewhere in the EU – has boosted the far right. On Sunday in France, in fact, the overtly anti-immigrant party of Marine Le Pen topped the polls in the first round of the country's snap elections. This despite Mbappé's own direct appeals to young French voters not to let Le Pen's party win.
On that score, when Austria plays Turkey in a few days, help me NOT flip back to the 1683 Siege of Vienna , when the Habsburgs stopped the Ottomans’ last, best attempt to push into the heart of Europe. Far-right politicians in Europe today, of course, have embraced the symbolism of that exact battle as part of their calls to limit immigration from the Islamic world. Keep an eye on ultra-nationalist Euro Twitter on Tuesday when the match is on.
Back on this side of the Atlantic, the Mexico vs. Ecuador game on Sunday was the most exciting faceoff between the two countries since April, when Ecuadorian police raided the Mexican Embassy in Quito, in order to arrest a former Ecuadorian vice president who had taken asylum there while fleeing a corruption conviction.
But I couldn't help thinking of the bigger Ecuador story: the country is in a state of emergency as murders skyrocket amid a war between Mexican (and Colombian) cartels trying to claim turf in the small Andean country. That violence has driven Ecuadoran asylum seekers as far away as New York City, where a growing migrant crisis is defining the city's politics. (See our special on that here.)
Speaking of migrant crises: Venezuela, -- where political repression, economic mismanagement, and the effects of US sanctions have caused more than 7 million people to flee over the past several years -- is somehow fielding one of the strongest teams at the Copa. Could success at the tournament give a boost to strongman Nicolas Maduro? He could use the help. He is so unpopular that he might actually lose a July 28th election that he has spent years carefully designing in his favor.
You get the point.
I understand this is a little nuts. A sports match is just a sports match. But for any politically minded person, it’s never just a sports matchup when it’s national teams.
Like it or not, the politics of how nation-states define themselves — that is, who gets to be in them, who gets what from them, where their borders really are — is at the heart of so many of the most electric political questions in the world today.
The immigration debates in Europe or the US are about who gets to come in. The socioeconomic, political, and racial fault lines and conflicts within countries of Latin America are, in many cases, what is driving people out.
In just about every country represented at the Copa and the Euros, these questions are shaping -- or reshaping -- politics. I can't help if if I'm seeing that in every match. All I'm doing is watching some soccer, right?
El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele speaks during the inauguration
El Salvador’s millennial strongman on track to be reelected
The decision, announced Friday, came roughly two years after a ruling from El Salvador’s highest court that paved the way for Bukele to run again. The 2021 ruling, condemned by the United States as anti-democratic, came from justices who were appointed by lawmakers from Bukele’s ruling party.
Authoritarian tendencies: Bukele has taken a bombastic, controversial approach to leadership — sending armed men into Parliament to intimidate lawmakers, for example.
But Bukele is wildly popular in El Salvador for overseeing a brutal crackdown on gang violence, which has cleaned up the country’s streets while raising myriad allegations of human rights violations. He’s likely to lean heavily on this effort as he vies for another term.
Though history shows strongman behavior can often inspire the masses to revolt against leaders, so far the opposite has been true for Bukele. As democratic institutions continue to erode under his watch, Bukele continues to gain more fans on the far right in the US.Undocumented Immigrants from West Africa, Mexico, and Venezuela camp outside the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City.
Biden approves hundreds of thousands of work-visas for Venezuelan migrants
As President Joe Biden left the Big Apple last night, his administration announced that Venezuelans already in the country could legally live and work in the US for the next 18 months.
The decision will affect 472,000 Venezuelans nationwide and roughly half of New York City’s migrants, letting them support themselves and easing the strain on New York’s social safety net. (For more on the situation in New York, see our explainer).
The bigger picture: Adams is pushing Biden to extend the authorization to migrants from other nations, but the White House is wary that a broad policy could incentivize even more migrants to cross the border. On the national level, Democratic leaders fear the GOP could sweep suburban house districts in 2024 by weaponizing the migrant issue, as they did with crime in 2022.
Undated photo posted by Jack Teixeira\'s mother on Veterans Day Nov 11, 2021 on her Facebook page.
What We're Watching: Pentagon leaker suspect arrested, Gershkovich swap chatter, Uruguay’s free trade ambitions
And the suspected leaker is ...
On Thursday afternoon, the FBI arrested a suspect in the most damaging US intel leak in a decade, identifying him as Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard. Teixeira was reportedly the leader of an online gaming chat group, where he had been allegedly sharing classified files for three years. If convicted of violating the US Espionage Act, he could spend the rest of his life behind bars. Teixeira will appear in a Boston court on Friday.
We know that the chat group was made up of mostly male twentysomethings that loved guns, racist online memes, and, of course, video games. We don’t know what motivated the leaks, what other classified material the leaker had, or whether any of the docs were divulged to a foreign intelligence agency.
Arresting a suspect, though, is just the beginning of damage control for the Pentagon and the Biden administration. Although the content of the leaks surprised few within the broader intel community, many might not have realized the extent to which the US spies on its allies.
Uncle Sam obviously would’ve preferred to have intercepted the message this scandal sends to America’s enemies: US intel is not 100% secure.
Russia is maybe considering swap for Evan Gershkovich
A top Russian diplomat suggested Thursday that Moscow could explore a prisoner swap with the US in order to release American journalist Evan Gershkovich, whom Russian authorities jailed earlier this month on espionage charges.
But first, said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, the trial against Gershkovich will have to play out in full. That could take as long as a year.
What might Russia want in exchange? Hard to say. Last year, the Kremlin swapped WNBA star Brittney Griner, convicted of a drug offense while traveling in Russia, for notorious arms dealer Viktor Bout. At the time, the Kremlin also reportedly sought the release of a Russian assassin from a German prison, but that swap broke down when the Kremlin refused to also release Paul Whelan, an American currently serving an espionage sentence in Russia.
A year from now, the world, and the Ukraine war, might look very different. But expect the Kremlin to throw the book at Gershkovich to maximize their leverage ahead of any talks about his release.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in Russia’s prison system, opposition leader Alexei Navalny — currently in solitary confinement — has suffered a fresh health crisis that his spokeswoman says is another attempt to poison him.
For context, see our recent interview with Daniel Roher, director of the Oscar-winning documentary Navalny.
Uruguay’s FTA dream
Uruguay's Foreign Minister Francisco Bustillo will soon meet with Chinese officials to take steps toward establishing a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. Uruguay has wanted an FTA for three decades, and the timing might finally be right as China seeks to increase its influence in South America.
Getting an FTA with China has been a priority for Uruguay’s President Luis Lacalle Pou's administration. The meeting will come on the heels of trade talks between Brazil and China, countries that saw their two-way trade hit a record $171.5 billion in 2022. Uruguay wants in on the action.
China has deepened its trade relationships in Latin America throughout the 21st century, beating out the US as the region's largest trading partner. Beijing benefits politically from these partnerships, gaining votes at the UN and support for Chinese appointees to multinational institutions, as well as the ability to implement technology standards into regional infrastructure.
But not all of Uruguay's neighbors are comfortable with China's swelling influence in the region, or with Uruguay flying solo. Uruguay is facing resistance from other Mercosur countries that favor negotiating regional trade deals as a bloc. Paraguay, which still recognizes Taipei in lieu of the government in Beijing, is leading the pushback – a conflict that could test one of the bloc’s few rules: a restriction on making preferential agreements with third countries.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro.
Maduro’s not going anywhere. What comes next for Venezuela?
Just four years ago, most observers would have bet good money that Nicolás Maduro’s days at the top were numbered.
In 2018, Venezuela’s strongman president had declared himself the winner after a reelection battle that was broadly considered to be rigged. Maduro’s subsequent crackdown on anti-government protesters made him one of the world’s most reviled and isolated leaders.
It’s now been 10 years since Maduro, the foreign minister at the time, was handed the top job, and his power is more entrenched than ever. How has the Venezuelan despot survived and what might this mean for the country's politics and its people?
Meet Maduro. A former bus driver from Caracas, Maduro got his political training as a young man in Cuba. Upon returning to Venezuela, he became a big shot in the union movement and in leftist politics as a member of the United Socialist Party.
An avid backer of Chavismo – the left-wing populism championed by his predecessor Hugo Chávez – Maduro was tapped to take on presidential responsibilities after Chávez's death in 2013.
Like Chávez, Maduro’s authoritarian predilections were apparent from the get-go. Amid growing popular discontent, in 2015 he declared “Operation Liberation and Protection of the People” (the irony!) to address what he called the country’s growing security concerns. Maduro deployed 80,000 security forces to round up alleged detractors, leading to scores of extrajudicial killings.
This leadership style of quashing dissent and jailing political opponents and journalists came to a head after the widely disputed 2018 election, when thousands of Venezuelans took to the streets to protest Maduro’s win, broadly dubbed a sham. The regime’s brutal response to the protests – security forces killed dozens of demonstrators and shuttered independent news organizations – further solidified Maduro’s pariah status in many parts of the world.
The sanctions weapon. The US has used sanctions as a bludgeon against Venezuela since 2006, when the Bush administration banned arms sales to the Chávez regime due to its ties to rogue states, like Cuba and Iran.
But this campaign ramped up a lot during the Maduro years. The Trump administration, in particular, adopted a merciless approach to Caracas, enforcing sanctions that cut it off from US financial markets, essentially limiting its oil sales to the black market and prohibiting purchases of Venezuelan debt.
Venezuela’s economy has since been through the wringer. From once having the highest per capita income rate in Latin America, Venezuela is now flailing. Starved of investment, hyperinflation topped an absurd 65,000% in 2018. The country’s oil output has remained sluggish over the past decade despite the fact that it has the biggest liquid gold reserves in the entire world. Consider that in 1998 Venezuela was producing around 3 million barrels of crude per day – that number slipped to 626,000 in 2020.
To be sure, years of corruption, underinvestment, and mismanagement have also pummeled the petrostate’s economy. In 1997, one independent group claimed that around $100 billion had been embezzled from the state oil company in the preceding 25 years.
Given the heft of Western sanctions, how have Venezuela and Maduro managed to stay afloat?
Who’s isolating whom? Taking a page out of Chávez’s playbook, Maduro has worked hard to cultivate ties with other heavily sanctioned states and US rivals like Iran, Russia, and China, as well as Turkey.
Reflecting its mercantile approach to geopolitics, Beijing has given Caracas billions of dollars worth of loans in recent years in exchange for oil. China has also helped Caracas deliver the goods in violation of US sanctions. Moscow has similarly doled out cash to help keep Caracas afloat.
Maduro has also deepened relations with the US’ forever enemy, Iran, with Caracas sending Tehran billions of dollars worth of gold in exchange for oil, gas, and food. The friendship is deep, with Iran reportedly set to revamp the Paraguana Refining Center, Venezuela's largest, in the near term. Crucially, the overhaul will replace US technology – originally used to build Venezuela's oil infrastructure – with … Chinese and Iranian parts.
Moreover, under Maduro, illicit economies – including trading of illegal drugs, gold, and oil – made up a whopping 21% of Venezuela's gross domestic product in 2021.
The perks of a ”pink tide.” Maduro has benefited enormously from the region’s changing politics. A “pink tide” across Latin America in recent months has seen a slew of leftist governments come to power that are more sympathetic to Maduro’s socialist, anti-imperialist agenda.
“For a long time, diplomacy in Latin America wasn't very ideological because state sovereignty was the most sacrosanct principle,” says Will Freeman, a Latin America expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Governments in the region are now taking a more ideological approach to diplomacy,” resulting in leftist leaders in Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and elsewhere wanting to deepen ties with the socialist in Caracas.
A dysfunctional opposition. It’s been a boon for Maduro that the opposition has proven to be lackluster and underwhelming. Many place the blame at the feet of former wunderkind Juan Guaidó.
After the 2018 election, Guaidó, then president of the opposition-controlled legislature, set up a shadow government backed by the West. But critics say Guaidó made no progress in moving the country toward new elections and that he failed to get the military or courts onside. Popular support has also nosedived, with just 6% of Venezuelans polled in Nov. 2022 saying that they’d vote for him.
After Guaidó’s allies voted to remove him from office in December, the former de facto leader said the move would create a “power vacuum” that would only boost Maduro.
And he might have been right: The Biden administration recently moved to ease some sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector. While this has largely been aimed at boosting production and keeping global prices down amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, it’s hard to imagine that the White House would have felt as comfortable making overtures to the Maduro regime if there was a powerful and popular opposition to deal with in Caracas.
“Venezuela is fixed.” Not quite. Feeling emboldened by Maduro’s staying power, some Venezuelans have adopted the slogan “Venezuela is fixed” — a tongue-in-cheek reference used in the country when conditions mildly improve. They point to the fact that the International Monetary Fund recently predicted that Venezuela's economy will grow by 6% this year, while the poverty rate decreased for the first time in seven years.
But the current political dynamic is more a result of “broad disillusionment and disengagement from politics,” says Freeman, adding that “Maduro has not become popular by any stretch of the imagination.”
What’s more, the humanitarian situation remains grim. Half the country lives in poverty, down from 65% in 2021, giving rise to one of the world's biggest refugee crises in recent years. Venezuela is also one of the world’s most unequal states, with the wealthiest Venezuelans 70 times richer than the poorest. It’s for this reason, Freeman says, that what we've seen is “more of an economic recovery on the surface” only. The foundation remains rotten.
What now? Maduro’s political future is as secure as ever. But there’s no quick fix for Venezuela's economy or its people. Indeed, it’ll take years of investment and billions of dollars to modernize the country's energy infrastructure in order to boost output. And while other petrostates are looking to diversify their economies, Caracas is a million steps behind.
And what about the vote next year? “The elections will be very unfree and very unfair,” Freeman says, adding that “Maduro will steal them if he needs to, though he may not need to if the opposition remains this divided.”
For now, at least, Maduro, often derided as “the bus driver” from Caracas, is likely feeling pretty good about things.
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Who is Colombia's new president?
Who is Gustavo Petro, Colombia's first leftist president? He’s a [deep breath] sixty-two-year-old-ex-leftist-guerilla-turned-mayor-turned-opposition-leader who rode a wave of voter anger to a narrow victory over a populist construction magnate last June. Got that?
But according to Petro himself, the answer is much more simple. “I’m a fighter,” Petro told Ian Bremmer in this episode of GZERO World. “I’ve been a fighter all my life in a country that has been through very difficult moments."
He was swept to power by a slim margin in June thanks mainly to young Colombians, after promising them something different in a country that's been rocked by mass protests over inequality and corruption.
Petro, who started his political career as a leftist guerrilla in the 1990s, wants to fight climate change by ending oil exploration and to massively increase social spending by taxing the rich more.
But whether he’ll be able to follow through on his promises is another question entirely.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Gustavo Petro: the guerilla-turned-president who wants to "develop capitalism"
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From stunted capitalism to economic growth in Colombia
During his victory speech last June, Colombia’s new president, and the country’s first leftist leader in modern history, said that it was time to “develop capitalism.” In an exclusive interview with Ian Bremmer for GZERO World, President Gustavo Petro explains what he meant.
“I mean to say that capitalism has not developed in Colombia. The productive capacity that it generates, which is indubitable throughout human history, has been quite rickety in my country.”
Petro tells Ian how he intends to expand Colombia’s productive capacity, and why the nation’s teeming biodiversity is central to that mission. And why a new kind of capitalism can diminish coca production in the process.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Gustavo Petro: the guerilla-turned-president who wants to "develop capitalism"
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