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Europe’s Tough Decisions: Russia, China, & EU Unity | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity

Winter is coming and for Europe, a bleak winter it may be.

The escalating Russia/Ukraine war has united European support to Kyiv’s cause, but it’s also brought a plethora of economic, political, and social challenges. Inflation, a sinking Euro, and the possibility of an energy crisis brings to question just how long Europe’s support for Ukraine will last?

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with German diplomat Christoph Heusgen, who served as his country’s ambassador to the United Nations and is now chairman of the Munich Security Conference.

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Ian Explains: The State of the Global Economy Is … Not Good | GZERO World

The state of the global economy is … not good

This year, the annual fall meetings of the World Bank and the IMF were all about global economic doom and gloom.

The IMF has cut its global growth prediction for this year by half compared to 2021. And next year will be the worst since COVID and the 2008 financial crisis.

Meanwhile, inflation is still very high — and efforts by rich countries to tame rising prices are going to hurt poor nations.

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Political Unrest When Governments Fail Struggling Citizens | Economic Empowerment | GZERO Media

Political unrest when governments fail struggling citizens

What happens when 1.4 billion people are cut off from the global economy because they don't have a bank account at a time of mounting crises?

"The geopolitical ramifications are potentially huge," Ali Wyne, senior analyst for Global Macro-Geopolitics at Eurasia Group, says during a livestream conversation on closing the global digital gap hosted by GZERO in partnership with Visa.

First, it was COVID. Then came the twin blows of the food and energy crises, aggravated by Russia's war in Ukraine. When people are struggling, Wyne adds, they'll look to their governments for solutions.

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Biden's gas prices woes

The Graphic Truth: Biden's gas price woes

Polls show US voters rank the economy as their No. 1 issue ahead of the Nov. 8 midterms. Many blame Democrats for today’s inflationary pressures despite a bid by the White House to dub increased prices at the pump as “Putin’s price hike.” But even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent global supply chains into a tizzy, Biden’s disapproval rating was way higher than he would’ve liked. We track the correlation between it and US gas prices since the beginning of the year.

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Local residents at a site of a residential building damaged by a Russian missile attack in Mykolaiv, Ukraine.

Reuters

What We’re Watching: Allies talk “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine, dark clouds brew over France, Medvedev channels his inner James Bond

Ukraine latest: Is it too soon to talk reconstruction?

With Ukrainian forces continuing to push their counteroffensive, winter coming, and Russian attacks crippling the country’s energy infrastructure, it seems like a dicey time to talk about pumping close to a trillion dollars of reconstruction aid into Ukraine. But it’s never too early to plan/hope, so that’s what’s on the agenda this week at two conferences in Berlin headlined by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. They are calling for a 21st-century “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine that could last decades. But who, precisely, is willing to foot the bill for bridges, roads, and power plants that will remain indefinitely in Russian crosshairs is an open question. Meanwhile, in ominous news from Russia, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday wondered aloud whether the fragile UN-backed Ukrainian grain export deal will be renewed next month, citing the Kremlin’s demand for more data on where the grain shipments have actually been going. The grain deal helped to take some of the pressure off record highs in global food prices, which are having a disproportionate impact on the world’s poor.

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People walk as they protest in Moundou, Chad.

Reuters

What We’re Watching: Chaos in Chad, Biden’s barrels of oil

Trouble in Chad

Around 50 people were killed Thursday in Chad amid clashes between security forces and protesters over the junta's decision to delay returning to civilian rule by two years. Hundreds more were injured. The anger is directed at Mahamat Idriss Déby, who took over the Central African nation in April 2021 after his strongman dad and namesake was assassinated by a rebel group. Upon assuming power, the four-star general quickly dissolved parliament to rule by decree but promised to hold a new election in 18 months (Chadians were not happy about it). Earlier this month, military leaders pushed that deadline back to October 2024. Déby, 38, was sworn in last week as "transitional” president and says he plans to run for the job. Will Chadians let him? It's unclear if the younger Déby has as firm a grip as his father, who led the country with an iron fist for 30 years and was considered a reliable Western ally against Islamic extremism. One external player in a tricky spot is former colonial power France: Paris is wary of rising anti-French sentiment there and wants to keep a low profile, but it also needs stability because French energy major Total does a lot of business in oil-rich Chad.

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Europe's 2023 Energy Scarcity Will Drive Green Transition | GZERO World

Europe's 2023 energy scarcity will drive green transition, says IMF chief

With soaring energy prices, Europe is headed toward a dark winter. But next year could be even worse.

If Vladimir Putin continues to weaponize natural gas supplies, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva believes 2023 will be an even tougher winter for the Europeans, she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.

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David Malpass: I’m Not a Climate Denier | GZERO World

David Malpass: I'm not a climate denier

World Bank President David Malpass has come under a political firestorm over his views on climate change science. But is he a climate denier?

No way, he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World when asked about the elephant in the room. Meanwhile, the institution Malpass leads has, among many priorities, two big crises to deal with: energy and food.

Malpass laments how Russia's war in Ukraine has hurt climate progress by creating more appetite for fossil fuels. Why? Countries are hungry for energy, and even Europe is scouring the world for more coal and natural gas.

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