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US President Joe Biden, Mexican President AMLO and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau arrive for a joint news conference at the conclusion of the North American Leaders' Summit in Mexico City.
What We’re Watching: Three Amigos huddle, Peruvian violence, East Asia travel curbs
Three Amigos talk and ... that's all, folks
Well, some progress is better than none at all — at least among “friends.” At their “Three Amigos” summit on Tuesday, US President Joe Biden, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, and Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador — known as AMLO — announced a slew of agreements on things like moving some US production of semiconductors to Mexico, cutting methane emissions to fight climate change, and installing EV charging stations on shared borders. But they failed to make significant headway on the thorniest issues: the record numbers of asylum seekers entering the US from Mexico; Mexican-made fentanyl causing a public health catastrophe for los gringos; and USMCA-related trade disputes such as Mexico's energy reforms or Canadian grumbling at the Biden administration's EV subsidies. Indeed, perhaps the best thing to come out of the summit is that Biden and AMLO — who had tense exchange on Day 1 — showed that despite their lack of personal chemistry, maybe they can be compadres after all.
A deadly day in Peru
Peruvian authorities announced a three-day curfew in the southern region of Puno after at least 18 people were killed Monday in clashes between protesters and police. It was the deadliest day since the country descended into chaos after the ouster of former President Pedro Castillo in early December. The mostly rural supporters of Castillo, a leftist newcomer to politics who faced multiple impeachment attempts during his 17 months in office, have been blocking roads across the country and calling for him to be immediately released and reinstated. Crucially, they have still not accepted the pledge by acting president Dina Boluarte, Castillo’s former VP, to bring forward the scheduled 2026 general elections to April of next year. Meanwhile, a confidence vote to approve Boluarte’s new cabinet easily passed on Tuesday night (the alternative would have caused a cabinet reshuffle and even more chaos). Authorities have also blocked Evo Morales – Bolivia’s former leftist president and a Castillo ally who was himself ousted amid mass protests in 2019 – from entering Peru to cheer on the protesters. What's more, Peru's chief prosecutor is opening an investigation against Boluarte and members of her cabinet on charges of “genocide, qualified homicide and serious injuries.”
East Asian COVID visa beef
China is lashing out at COVID travel restrictions after reopening to the world. On Tuesday, Beijing responded to the latest curbs by Japan and South Korea by canceling short-term visas for their citizens. Tokyo and Seoul are ostensibly worried about new COVID variants being spread by arrivals from China, where Xi Jinping has relaxed his zero-COVID policy with the same lack of transparency that allowed COVID to spread beyond China’s borders in the first place in early 2020. For its part, Beijing resents being singled out by its neighbors while many other countries are welcoming Chinese tourists. In the near term, the impact of the visa tit-for-tat will be limited because few people are now traveling between China and the two countries. But if the restrictions stay in place for weeks or months, it might delay a much-anticipated revival of business activity in East Asia.
A woman in a protective suit walks past a shop as COVID outbreaks continue in Shanghai, China.
What We're Watching: China's COVID shenanigans, Oz olive branch, Peru vs. Mexico, Twitter succession
Counting China’s COVID deaths
In recent weeks, China has announced an abrupt about-face on its zero-COVID policy, which imposed tough (and economically costly) restrictions on freedom of movement inside China for the past three years. Despite predictions that a sudden end to existing COVID rules could contribute to one million deaths, the state has lifted lockdowns, ended many testing and quarantine requirements, and halted contact-tracing systems. For a government that works hard to persuade its people that it protected them from the COVID carnage in Western democracies, it’s a big risk. How to keep the number of COVID deaths down? Just redefine what counts as a COVID death. Going forward, only those with COVID who die of pneumonia or respiratory failure will be counted as COVID fatalities. (The US counts any death to which the virus contributed as a COVID death.) China’s change will make it much harder for Chinese health officials to properly allocate resources to respond to COVID spikes, and more infections will create mutations that generate new variants that cross borders. Officials in many countries, including the US, have argued over how to define a COVID death, but the question is especially sensitive in an under-vaccinated country of 1.4 billion people.
Australia tries to repair China trade ties
“Australia’s approach is to cooperate where we can, disagree where we must and engage in the national interest,” Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong said before touching down in Beijing for a meeting on Wednesday with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. It’s the first time a high-ranking Australian official has visited the mainland since 2019 due to extremely tense bilateral relations. Wong reiterated that the meeting itself was a triumph given that diplomatic ties were all but frozen until new Aussie PM Anthony Albanese was elected in May, promising to reestablish dialogue with China. While no major public breakthroughs were announced on trade impediments, Beijing and Canberra vowed to establish a consistent high-level dialogue. Why has the mood been so grim? Well, President Xi Jinping is especially peeved at Canberra for joining US efforts to build a bulwark against China in the Asia Pacific by joining alliances including the Quad and AUKUS. Things got particularly bad in 2020 when Australia backed calls for an international investigation into the origins of COVID-19, prompting Beijing to impose devastating tariffs and bans on Australian exports. The Albanese government is keen to fix that, given that key Aussie exports – like wine – have plunged due to Chinese tariffs.
Peru clashes with Mexico as political crisis deepens
Peru has ordered the Mexican ambassador to leave the country after Mexico City granted asylum to the family of leftist President Pedro Castillo, who was recently arrested for trying to dissolve Congress and stage a coup. Simply put: Peru is a hot mess. Castillo, a former rural school teacher with no prior political experience, was accused of corruption and ineptitude and faced multiple impeachments since coming to office last year. Castillo's wife is also being investigated for partaking in alleged corrupt activities. Peru’s government, now led by Dina Boluarte, recently declared a state of emergency to manage mounting social unrest that’s led to at least 26 deaths. Crucially, Mexico isn’t the only state criticizing Lima. Fellow leftist regimes in Argentina, Colombia, and Bolivia released a joint statement expressing concern over Castillo’s “undemocratic harassment.” Meanwhile, Peruvians continue to protest, with some calling for new elections and others demanding Castillo be released. While Peru’s Congress is set to greenlight early elections, they wouldn’t take place until April 2024. That’s unlikely to placate the angry masses.
What We're Ignoring: Whoever becomes the new Twitter boss
After 57.5% of Twitter users voted for him to step down as CEO in an online poll, Elon Musk now says he'll do it ... once he finds the right person to replace him. Hmmm. But even if he does, any incoming Twitter boss won't have as much free rein over the social platform as its mega-rich owner, who still plans to run the tech side. More importantly, why drop $44 billion on buying Twitter to let someone else call the shots? The poll result likely gave Musk the perfect excuse to get out but still do whatever he wants by pulling the strings behind the scenes so he won't face so much blowback. The problem is that whoever steps into his shoes, none of the Twitter fights that Musk has started over hate speech moderation or who gets verified will likely be resolved anytime soon. Unless, of course, the new CEO is Snoop Dogg, who clearly wants the job and would certainly make Twitter anything but boring.
A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S.
What We’re Watching: Central banks vs. inflation, Peru’s endless crisis, Russian "energy terrorism"
Mixed messages from US, European central banks
In their last meeting of the year, two European central banks – the Bank of England and the European Central Bank – followed the US Fed in raising interest rates by 50 basis points, down from their most recent hikes of three-quarters of a percentage point. While central bank chiefs said that November’s numbers show that inflation has peaked, they also warned that this more mild rate hike should not be taken as a sign that they're taking their feet off the brakes. Facing sky-high energy prices and a tight labor market, the UK is on the brink of recession, economists say, while the EU is not far behind. Indeed, ECB chief Christine Lagarde admits that the eurozone will likely enter a recession next year, although says it will be “relatively short-lived and shallow.” Wishful thinking? Maybe. Lagarde also confirmed that eurozone inflation will remain above its 2% target into at least 2025 and warned of more belt tightening. Meanwhile, the Fed has now raised interest rates to the highest level in 15 years, and markets dipped in response to indications that higher rates would persist well into next year.
Another Peruvian state of emergency
Peru’s band-aid government has declared a national 30-day state of emergency amid fresh protests, some of which have turned violent. First, a recap: After attempting to dissolve Congress and replace it with an emergency government, Peru’s leftist President Pedro Castillo was arrested on Dec. 7 by security forces for attempting a “self-coup.” He remains in custody. Now supporters of the former schoolteacher, who had no political experience before this gig, have taken to the streets calling for Castillo’s release. Other disillusioned Peruvians are also demonstrating, in their case calling for the dissolution of Congress and fresh general elections … now! Meanwhile, Dina Boluarte, Castillo’s running mate in 2021 who is now serving as the country’s sixth president in five years, said she would hold an election in 2024 — two years early — because she needs time to bring the country together. But facing backlash, Boluarte has since floated holding a fresh vote as soon as Dec. 2023. Roads in at least 14 regions across Peru have been blocked by protesters as the situation gets increasingly unstable by the day.
Kherson goes dark
The entire city of Kherson in southern Ukraine was left in darkness Thursday after a series of Russian missile strikes that left three people dead. Russia has pummeled the port city in recent days, leaving Kherson’s remaining 130,000 residents without power amid brutal winter temperatures. Indeed, Kherson is a sore spot for Moscow, which was forced to withdraw from there last month due to its flailing military campaign. This development comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed this week to EU member states for help to overcome Russian “energy terrorism” — a reference to the Kremlin’s relentless targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which has terrorized the Ukrainian population. While many were expecting the war to enter a deep freeze during the winter months, it’s clear that Kyiv has no intention of slowing down: Ukrainian forces on Thursday shelled eastern Donetsk in what’s been described as the biggest attack on the Russian-occupied region since 2014.Police secures the area in Berlin after 25 suspected members and supporters of a far-right group were detained during raids across Germany.
What We’re Watching: German coup plotters, Peru’s self-coup, Xi’s Saudi visit, TSMC’s big investment
A thwarted German Jan. 6?
Is there a single German word for "narrowly averted right-wing coup attempt"? We aren't sure, but on Wednesday German authorities arrested 25 people accused of belonging to a domestic terror organization with plans to overthrow the government and replace it with German nobility in a throwback to pre-Weimar times. Some 3,000 police conducted raids in several German states as well as in Austria and Italy, detaining people associated with the Reichsbürger, a right-wing German conspiracy group, the far-right Alternativ für Deutschland party, and at least one Russian citizen. You’ll likely remember that a member of the AfD – a euroskeptic party that has capitalized on anti-immigrant sentiment in recent years to grow its base – tweeted after the Jan. 6 riot at the US Capitol that "Trump is fighting the same political fight — you have to call it a culture war." Harboring beliefs that Germany is being run by a “deep state'' (sound familiar?), the group reportedly planned to launch an armed attack on the Reichstag, Germany’s parliament. This is just the most recent reflection of a far-right extremist problem in Deutschland. Last year, the German government placed the AfD under surveillance for its far-right extremist affiliations, and early this year the government found that more than 300 employees in Germany's security apparatus harbored far-right views.
Peruvian president ousted after trying his own coup
Peru's Congress voted Wednesday to remove President Pedro Castillo after he tried to dissolve parliament and declared a state of emergency to rule by decree in a bid to thwart an impeachment vote. Castillo's sudden move sparked mass resignations within his cabinet and the military, while his critics called it an autogolpe or self-coup like the one former President Alberto Fujimori successfully pulled off 20 years ago. Back then, the army helped the right-wing strongman stay in power for a decade — but this time the leftist Castillo had neither the support of the army nor Fujimori’s popularity. By nightfall, he was arrested. In his 17 months in power, Castillo, a former schoolteacher who rides on horseback and waves a giant pencil, has taken political instability to a record high even by Peruvian standards — he’s reshuffled his cabinet five times, had six criminal probes filed against him, and survived two impeachment bids. What happens next? VP Dina Boluarte was sworn in for the top job as Peru’s first female leader, but she may not last long: Peru churned through three presidents in a month in 2020 almost a year before Castillo won a nail-biter runoff election against … Fujimori’s daughter.
Xi goes to Saudi
China’s President Xi Jinping doesn’t leave the country often these days, but on Wednesday he began a three-day trip to Saudi Arabia. Xi, the leader of the world’s largest oil importer, is expected to sign trade agreements worth more than $29 billion with the Saudis, one of the world’s leading oil behemoths. In recent years, however, Russia has surpassed Riyadh as the top oil exporter to Beijing, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is keen to address that. The trip will also include a China-Arab and China-Gulf Cooperation Council summit. Indeed, the visit is a sign of the deepening relations between the two states at a time when relations between the US and Saudi Arabia, longtime allies, have steadily deteriorated due to personal animosity between President Joe Biden and MBS. Crucially, Beijing is now Riyadh’s largest trade partner, with exports to China surpassing $50 billion in 2021. And earlier this year, MBS and Xi cemented a $10 billion deal to create a Saudi Aramco oil refinery complex in China. To be sure, these close ties have been in the making for some time as Saudi Arabia has sought to diversify its trade portfolio, and Beijing has looked for new ways to expand its global economic clout. Washington will be watching very closely for new signs of cooperation.
Taiwan’s big investment
Twenty years ago, the US produced 37% of the world’s semiconductors, a product essential for the functioning of everything from smartphones and automobiles to digital-age weapons and fighter planes. Today, that percentage stands at just 12%, exposing the US economy and its military to supply-chain problems that create dangerous shortages. Adding to the risk, about 90% of the world’s most advanced chips are now produced in Taiwan, a self-governing island that Washington treats as an ally and Beijing insists is a breakaway Chinese province. These are two of the reasons why it’s a big deal for the US that the Biden administration and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest chipmaker, announced on Tuesday that the company would more than triple its planned investment in a new US plant to $40 billion – one of the largest foreign investments in US history. TSMC has also pledged to build a second plant by 2026 that produces some of the most sophisticated chips currently in production. The plan will leave the US less vulnerable to the kind of chip shortages it saw during the pandemic and could see during any future conflict between China and Taiwan. Nor will it hurt President Joe Biden that this investment will eventually create thousands of tech jobs in Arizona, one of the most hotly contested battlegrounds on the US electoral map.
Is Latin America’s new “pink tide” for real?
Since it’s August we obviously can’t ask much of you, but try this for fun: take out a red marker and a black and white map of Latin America.
Now, color in all the countries currently led by leftist leaders. You’ll immediately be filling in five of the largest economies — Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Perú. By October, you’ll likely have added Brazil, the biggest of them all.
Along with stalwart leftists in Bolivia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and the new presidenta of Honduras, your map will have a big splash of rojo/vermelho bigger than any we’ve seen in at least 15 years. That’s when observers first hailed — or feared — a new “pink tide” in Latin America.
But is the region really back in the red, so to speak? Or is this pink tide different from previous ones? Spoiler: they are not the same. Let’s look at what’s going on.
“This is not so much a movement of voters towards the left,” says Chris Garman, managing director for the Americas at Eurasia Group. “This is a movement of voters who are angry with the status quo, and the left is in a position to capitalize on that anger.”
Voter frustrations have been running high for years in Latin America, no matter who is in power. The massive growth of a new middle class in the 2000s sparked hard-to-meet expectations about better public services and cleaner government. Disgruntlement rose. By 2021, region-wide pollster Latinobarómetro found just 27% of those surveyed had confidence in their governments — a 20-point drop from a decade earlier.
Across the region, incumbents — many of them part of the initial pink wave — paid the price. Argentines, Chileans, and Brazilians, for example, all voted in center-right or right-wing successors. In Mexico, meanwhile, voters chose left-wing nationalist AMLO as a rebuke to the center-right establishment.
Then the pandemic hit. Incomes and economies plummeted, millions were threatened anew with poverty, and massive protests over inequality rippled across the region.
Left-wing opposition figures were in the right place at the right time, given their traditional message of tackling income inequality, and the pendulum swung again.
This time, left-wing leaders took power from right-wing incumbents in Argentina (again), Chile (again), and — for the first time — even Colombia.
In Brazil, meanwhile, left-wing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva looks set to trounce the current far-right leader, Jair Bolsonaro, in October. In other words, the latest swing to the left is less “workers of the world unite” and more “throw the bums out!”
But these leaders are going to have a much harder time than left-wingers of the past. For one thing, today’s leaders can only dream of the economic situation that prevailed in the 2000s. Prices for the region’s commodities then were booming, China’s economy was roaring, and low-interest rates in the US were flooding the region with investor cash. With so much money in the pot, it was easy to unveil huge new social spending programs, like those Lula used to lift tens of millions of people out of poverty in Brazil.
Today things look very different. Although post-pandemic supply chain problems and the war in Ukraine have driven up prices for Latin America’s fossil fuels and agriculture commodities, inflation is still crushing household incomes. China’s economy is suffering a case of “slovid” (stunted growth amid COVID restrictions), while the US is raising interest rates and flirting with a recession. In other words, today’s left-wing leaders will have far less cash than their predecessors.
They’ll also have a lot less goodwill from their voters. As my fellow Signalista Willis Sparks put it, “anti-incumbency is great ... until you’re the incumbent."
With frustrations running high and cash running thin, the new generation of left-wing leaders will be on a short leash. You can already see that in Chile, where Gabriel Boric’s approval rating has plummeted since he took office; in Peru, where Pedro Castillo is about to be pushed from power altogether; and in Colombia, where experts say Gustavo Petro has mere months to prove his bonafides to an electorate impatient for change.
“We’re living in an era of extremely short honeymoon periods,” says Garman. With fickle voters, sparser finances, and a tougher economic situation overall, the new red tide could wash out just as fast as it rolled in.
Could that mean it’ll be colorín colorado (game over) for the region’s new pink tide before long?
Somalia appoints former al Shabaab spokesperson as minister in Mogadishu
What We're Watching: Somalia's new cabinet, takeaways from US primaries, Peru's president in peril
Somalia appoints former al-Shabab militant to cabinet
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre has named former al-Shabab spokesperson, Muktar Robow, as Somalia’s minister for endowment and religious affairs. A veteran of the Afghan war, who was training with al-Qaida in Afghanistan during 9/11, Robow helped found al-Shabab, which is fighting to overthrow the Somali government in a bid to invoke a strict interpretation of Sharia law. The militants have killed tens of thousands since 2007, and they’ve recently been involved in cross-border attacks in Ethiopia. Robow (aka Abu Mansour), who once had a $5 million bounty on his head, broke from the al-Qaida-linked militants back in 2017. Arrested by Somali authorities in 2018 to prevent him from running for office, Robow had been under house arrest in Mogadishu until last year, when he was taken back into custody. This week, he was released just before his new role was announced. As the new face of Somalia’s war against al-Shabab, Robow is tasked with helming the ideological battle against the terrorists. Some believe this will strengthen the government’s hand against al-Shabab, but critics fear it could lead to sectarian violence.
Key takeaways from US primaries
Five US states – Arizona, Missouri, Michigan, Washington, and Kansas – held primaries on Tuesday, giving an indication of the public mood in parts of the country just 12 weeks out from midterm elections. So, what happened? Trump-aligned candidates did pretty well. In Michigan, Rep. Peter Meijer – a freshman and one of just a handful of Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump – was defeated by an extreme pro-Trumper who has spread conspiracy theories (read lies) that Dems engaged in satanic rituals. In Arizona’s nail-biter GOP gubernatorial primary, Keri Lake, a Trump-backed TV presenter who propagates the former president’s lies about election fraud, was polling ahead of her rival with more than 80% of ballots counted. A slate of other Trump-aligned candidates also won primaries throughout the Grand Canyon state. Some Democrats will be happy with these outcomes, believing that far-right candidates will be easier to beat in battleground states this fall, but others have been critical of the strategy. Meanwhile, in Kansas, abortion-rights supporters were celebrating after 59% of voters rejected an amendment to the State Constitution to allow the state to regulate – or ban – abortion. High turnout in the Sunflower State suggests that abortion rights could indeed be an energizing issue for Democrats this fall.
Peru’s president in peril
Amid widening criminal investigations centered on President Pedro Castillo, Prime Minister Anibal Torres quit on Wednesday. Torres, a longtime Castillo ally, said he just wanted to go back to a quiet life of “legal research.” The resignation is the latest crumble of the cookie for Castillo, an upstart leftwing populist who stunned the country by winning the presidency last year, but who has been beset by scandals, missteps, and a fractious Congress since taking office. He is currently under investigation for alleged treason and for running a criminal enterprise from the presidential palace. Small wonder that his approval rating has plunged to below 20%, and our friends at Eurasia Group say it’s “only a matter of time” before lawmakers force him out. If this sounds topsy turvy, it is, but it’s also not unusual for Peru, where political parties are plentiful but weak, and presidents rarely have solid majorities in the legislature. The country went through a period in 2020 where there were three different presidents in the space of a month.President Pedro Castillo during the appointment of the new Prime Minister, Aníbal Torres.
New president falls victim to Peru’s messy politics
A series of scandals and resignations have forced Peruvian President Pedro Castillo to shuffle his cabinet four times in his first six months in office. Lawmakers have already tried to impeach him once. Though his latest cabinet shuffle could bring some respite, Castillo is not out of the woods yet — and may never be. Why all the turmoil? We asked Eurasia Group analyst Yael Sternberg.
Why is Castillo having so much trouble?
The most obvious reasons are that Castillo lacks experience, a clear ideology, and the ability to attract and retain talent. A former schoolteacher and union leader, Castillo was only loosely associated with his Peru Libre party until last year’s election, and his platform was written not by him but rather by Marxist party leader Vladimir Cerron. Castillo’s candidacy originated as somewhat of a compromise after the National Jury of Elections ruled Cerron couldn’t run because of a past corruption conviction. Because of this, Castillo’s success in the first round surprised many people, probably even Peru Libre party leaders, and it was not until the lead-up to the second round that Castillo started to put together a plan and team. After beating Keiko Fujimori, a three-time presidential candidate and daughter of imprisoned former president Alberto Fujimori, by a narrow margin in a very polarized race, we knew Castillo would struggle to chart a policy course that could please all the necessary stakeholders. So far, he has found himself at odds with both the more radical faction of his own party, as well as with business leaders and investors, all while trying to survive a standoff with a confrontational congress where he lacks a majority.
What might happen next?
Newly appointed Prime Minister Anibal Torres — whose predecessor resigned over domestic abuse allegations — now has 30 days to appear before congress and request a vote of confidence. Though there are several parties that have threatened to veto Castillo’s cabinets in the past, lawmakers ultimately provided them with votes of confidence. They will likely do so again in this case to avoid triggering a series of events that could lead to them losing their jobs. According to the constitution, the president can dissolve congress if it has denied the cabinet a vote of confidence twice, as occurred under former president Martin Vizcarra in 2019. If this were to occur, not only would protests surely emerge, but a new electoral field would not solve the problems facing this congress or administration, as a new body would be formed primarily by newcomers to politics without experience, strong affiliations to their parties, or strong ideological commitments.
How about impeachment?
A restive congress will probably continue to look for ways to obstruct and oust Castillo. Yet the path of impeachment also presents risks for lawmakers. If they try again and succeed in marshaling enough votes to impeach the president, Vice President Dina Boluarte will take office. But then if she were to resign or be ousted too, the president of congress would take office and need to call snap elections. The challenge here is that the constitution does not specify whether these elections would apply to the presidency only, or if they would include legislative elections, creating yet another risk of lawmakers losing their jobs. Boluarte seems to be backing Castillo at this point by suggesting she would go too if he is ousted, but there’s always a danger she could reach a deal with lawmakers not to resign if they impeach him and she becomes president.
Peru has had five presidents in five years – what accounts for this broader instability?
It hasn’t been an easy decade for Peruvians. In addition to political turmoil, the country has had the highest number of Covid-19 deaths per capita at various points and been scarred by continuous corruption scandals. The relationship between the presidency and congress has devolved into a protracted standoff, given the permanent threat that each side could oust the other at any moment. Changes of administration do nothing to relieve the tensions because of a serious fragmentation of the country’s party system. The big problem in Peruvian politics is that there are no parties really left, only groups who share some ideas and goals for the moment. This is part of the reason why it has been so difficult for Castillo and other party leaders to build coalitions in congress and why the last election was so difficult to predict.
Are there parallels between the situation in Peru and in other countries of the region?
Yes. Costa Rica’s first-round presidential election earlier this month saw an unprecedented number of candidates registered, which contributed to massive voter indecisiveness. The political situation there is by no means the same as in Peru, especially given Costa Rica’s peaceful and robust democratic history. Yet party fragmentation and abandonment are real risks in the region, along with voter discontent and incumbents being punished in the polls.
Yael Sternberg is a researcher on the Latin America desk at Eurasia Group.
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds talks with U.S. President Joe Biden via a video link in Sochi, Russia December 7, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Biden vs Putin, Rohingya vs Facebook, Peruvian congress vs president
Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin agree to disagree. But what a disagreement it is…. From what we know, during their Tuesday video call, the Russian president made clear that NATO’s flirtations with Ukraine are a red line, and that Moscow is prepared to defend its sphere of influence. The Kremlin also wants to see movement on the 2015 Minsk peace plan, which would give Russian-backed separatists in Eastern Ukraine broad autonomy. Biden meanwhile stressed that if Russia stirs up fresh trouble in Ukraine, the US is prepared to impose more severe economic sanctions. The US president also told Putin that Washington doesn’t accept the idea that Ukraine’s interests are subordinate to Russia’s. All of that leaves us more or less where we were before the call: Russia with more than 100,000 troops camped out on the Ukrainian border, and the US sounding the alarm about a possible invasion.
Rohingya sue Meta. Dozens of Rohingya refugees in the UK and the US want $150 billion in compensation from Meta, the parent company of Facebook, for allegedly allowing hate speech targeting the minority ethnic group to spread like wildfire in Myanmar. More than 10,000 Rohingya — most of whom are Muslim — were killed in August 2017, when the country's trigger-happy military, egged on by radical Buddhist monks, carried out a bloody crackdown against Rohingya communities. Meta, for its part, has as of Tuesday evening yet to reply to the lawsuit, which claims Facebook turned a blind eye to its algorithm amplifying misinformation, failed to invest in moderators and fact-checkers, and didn't take down accounts that explicitly called for violence against the Rohingya. The legal case is only the latest example of Meta, which has admitted its past mistakes in Myanmar, being haunted by its business practices. Regardless of what happens in court, shutting down in Myanmar is a non-starter because for most people there Facebook is the internet.
Peru’s new president is on the ropes already. Impeaching presidents is practically a national pastime in Peru, which has had six of them in as many years. Now it’s the newly-elected Pedro Castillo’s turn. After a scandal-ridden and erratic first four months in office, the leftist former schoolteacher — a political novice from Peru’s oft-neglected highlands who won the presidential runoff election by a hair — has seen his approval ratings plunge from a meager 40 percent to a flashing-red 25 percent. Lawmakers are talking about booting him, and while there isn’t quite enough support in Peru’s fractious parliament just yet, the bell could toll soon enough unless Castillo rights things — and fast.