We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Outgoing Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum speaks as she registers as a for the ruling MORENA party's 2024 presidential election primary.
Is she Mexico’s next president?
A year from now, Claudia Sheinbaum is likely to be Mexico's next president. That’s partly because she’s widely considered the preferred choice of the still-remarkably popular current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has a 59% approval rating after four years in office and has unified leadership within his Morena party.
But it’s also because Sheinbaum is an undeniably impressive candidate who’s built a solid reputation as the leftist mayor of Mexico City. Like López Obrador, she pledges to “shrink the great inequalities” that have defined Mexican society throughout its history.
First, she must fend off challenges from within Morena from Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard and Interior Secretary Adán Augusto López, but her commanding polling lead over both men and implied support from (officially neutral) López Obrador signal that’s likely to happen.
Then, she’ll have to defeat a unity opposition candidate, but given how little traction opposition parties have established against Morena, she’ll likely enter the race next year as a clear favorite.
If she wins next July, she’ll be the first female and first Jewish president in Mexico’s history. She’ll also be the first physicist. Herein lies the first of the two important differences between Sheinbaum and López Obrador, a president who was infamously cavalier about the public health risks posed by COVID and who has relied heavily on state-owned oil company PEMEX to help realize his populist vision for a more economically equitable Mexico.
In Mexico City, Sheinbaum took a much more science-based approach to the pandemic, with masks and social distancing as part of her virus management strategy. As for fossil fuels, Sheinbaum, who holds a Ph.D. in engineering, has worked on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the 2007 Nobel Prize. That’s the foundation of her commitment to moving Mexico toward environmental sustainability.
The other difference is all about politics. Love him or hate him, López Obrador is a brilliant politician with a common touch. He knows how to speak over the heads of political elites to mobilize support among working-class voters.
Does Sheinbaum share that talent? If she wins in 2024, that will be the true test of her ability to create a presidency unlike any Mexico has seen before.Mario Delgado, president of Mexico's ruling Morena party, during a press conference to unveil the four presidential candidates in Mexico City.
AMLO wants a popular successor
Mexico's ruling Morena Party on Sunday decided to pick its 2024 presidential nominee in a unique way.
Instead of voting directly for the four declared candidates to succeed term-limited President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO, Morena members will weigh in via five polls — one internal survey and four private ones picked by each aspirant — to be conducted over the summer. Moreover, all candidates must resign their posts by Friday in order to enter the race, which will have no debates or allow endorsements by sitting officials.
Why? To avoid infighting and anyone manipulating surveys or using a government position to gain an unfair advantage.
But perhaps more importantly, this selection process smacks of overcompensation since after five years in power, Morena remains little more than a political vehicle for AMLO’s popularity. Although the party insists that the president won't handpick his successor, any hint of showing a preference for, say, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, will be perceived as a de facto nod from the big boss that’ll matter more than any poll.
The winner will be announced on Sept. 6.
Delfina Gomez, candidate for governor of the State of Mexico for the Morena party, celebrates after preliminary election results are announced in Toluca.
AMLO's party wins big Mexican state, looking good for 2024
Mexico's ruling Morena Party on Sunday won a bellwether election in the State of Mexico. This is good news for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO.
For one thing, Mexico is the country's most populous state and has outsize weight in national politics as it hugs the federal capital, Mexico City, and its diverse composition signals wider voter trends. For another, the left-wing Morena defeated the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which had ruled the state for almost 100 years and is languishing in the political doldrums under AMLO.
But election night also delivered a warning for the president and his party: In a separate vote, the PRI walloped Morena in Coahuila. Although this border state is much smaller than the State of Mexico, Morena lost because party infighting resulted in the ruling coalition running three rival candidates, which siphoned key support from Morena's pick.
"AMLO will confirm that his political calculations continue to be spot-on as he managed to transfer his popularity to his party's candidate," says Eurasia Group analyst Matías Gómez Léautaud.
This is crucial for Morena to stay in power 13 months out from the presidential election since AMLO is limited to one term. It's an open secret that his preferred successor is Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, now the presumptive frontrunner despite some internal opposition. For Gómez Léautaud, "AMLO's overbearing presence and control will impede any schisms within the party to translate into rival candidacies from disaffected candidates."
Advantage Mexico
With so many other international stories dominating the news these days – Russia’s war in Ukraine, US-China tensions, Iran’s nuclear program, etc. – it’s easy to lose track of more positive stories. And when it comes to Mexico, the headlines suggest the country is struggling.
And I could write that story too. In most media, today’s Mexico conjures images of violent drug cartels and other organized crime groups, trouble at the US border, or large-scale protests led by an opposition that accuses the country’s president of a power grab that threatens democracy.
Mexico has its share of problems. But today, I want to give you three reasons for optimism that, politically and economically, Mexico is strong and getting stronger.
The China substitute
First, Mexico’s economic success remains closely tied to economic growth in the United States. (In 2022, Mexico’s total trade with the state of Texas was five times higher than its total trade with all of Latin America.) Over the years, that’s been a mixed blessing. When the US economy weakens, Mexico’s export revenue takes a hit. There are fewer remittances flowing south from Mexicans working in the United States. There are few American tourists pumping dollars into Mexican cities, towns, and businesses.
But over the decades, the US economy has remained strong and is currently running hot. Even with high inflation and rising interest rates, the US job market is strong, consumers are spending, and pandemic-weary tourists are traveling.
Mexico’s exports are surging. The country’s consumer confidence is close to its highest point in a generation. Add the reality is that the war in Ukraine has put strong upward pressure on global energy prices, boosting Mexico’s oil revenue. As the war grinds on, that advantage is likely to continue.
But the factor that matters most for coming years is souring US sentiment on relations with China. The Biden administration, both Democratic and Republican members of Congress, and many US governors are pushing for a significant national security and strategic decoupling from China and Chinese companies. US businesses are increasingly less confident they can navigate complicated US-China politics, abrupt changes inside China like the 180-degree turn on COVID policy, and other factors to continue to do profitable business in China.
Who benefits? Mexico. Particularly as “nearshoring” becomes a much more familiar word for many Americans. Nearshoring is the practice of shifting investment in manufacturing, production, and business operations closer to home to avoid the problems that come with both political risk and dangerously long supply chains.
Mexico already has the world’s 15th largest economy. While China, much of Europe, and Japan are aging, Mexico also has excellent demographics. Its population tops 130 million; its median age is 29.
A cost-conscious populist
Then there’s the country’s president. Andrés Manuel López Obrador has his fans and his detractors. But overall, he’s remarkably popular. After four years in office, his approval rating stands at 63%. How has he accomplished that? Mexico’s chief executive has crisscrossed the country by car and commercial airlines, visiting people and places, particularly in southern states, where national politicians are rarely seen.
But, talented populist though he is, he hasn’t bought support by launching a state spending spree. Even after the pandemic, Mexico’s debt-to-GDP ratio still stands at a healthy 50%, because the leftist López Obrador, aka AMLO, has confounded critics by both expanding the country’s tax base and keeping government spending in check.
Nor does Mexico’s president face the problem of balancing relations with multiple other countries. AMLO understands that his country’s giant neighbor is its primary source of both opportunities and challenges, and he’s invested in pragmatic relations with both Donald Trump and Joe Biden. His economic ambitions center on strengthening and expanding the USMCA trade agreement (NAFTA 2.0) rather than on hedging bets on Europe and Asia.
Strong institutions
The one area where AMLO is picking a fight that won’t help Mexico is on the question of judicial oversight of government. At the moment, he’s going after Mexico’s National Electoral Institute, which administers elections, by trying to cut 80% of its funding. This plan has filled Mexico City streets with hundreds of thousands of angry protesters, who warn that if he succeeds, AMLO would undermine Mexico’s ability to hold free and fair elections.
But the president isn’t going to succeed. The country’s Supreme Court is going to rule against him, and though AMLO can (and probably will) call on his own protesters to block traffic, Mexico’s governing institutions are plenty strong enough to keep the country moving forward.
In fact, that’s the lesson from Mexico’s presidential election of 2006, which AMLO lost by the smallest of margins and then rallied his supporters to occupy the center of Mexico’s capital for many weeks. But as I wrote in September 2006, the country’s political institutions absorbed that shock with no great difficulty. Politics continued. The currency remained stable. The economy moved forward.
AMLO has continued to wage war on a political elite he believes is plagued with corruption and cost him victory 17 years ago. But now, as then, Mexico is politically mature enough to handle challenges even larger than we now see in the president’s standoff with courts.
Finally, AMLO has given no indication he wants to remove presidential term limits from the country’s constitution, and unlike former US President Donald Trump and Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro, he and his party are genuinely popular and have no need to contest the next election outcome with violence. And all of AMLO’s likely successors agree with the merits of nearshoring and deeper integration with the US, reinforcing the country’s long-term economic stability.
Make no mistake: Mexico will continue to face major challenges in the years ahead. Mexico must continue to develop its infrastructure, energy, and water supplies to fully benefit from nearshoring opportunities. Crime, corruption, and the need to manage shifting US border politics will remain formidable obstacles to progress. But advantages both external and internal provide a solid foundation for progress.
Optimism about Mexico's political and economic future
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here. A happy Monday to you and a Quick Take to kick off your week. I'm just back from Mexico, Mexico City myself, and lots of fascinating meetings, lots of takeaways. Thought I would give you some of my sense of what is happening there, Mexico and Mexico's context in the world.
First thing I would say is I come away pretty optimistic about where the country is heading overall, and some of that is the context of Mexico in an environment where China-US relations are getting a lot more challenging. There is some significant national security and strategic decoupling that is happening at the behest of US administration, governors, members of Congress, both Democrats and Republicans. And also, there's a lot more uncertainty about doing business in Xi Jinping's China itself, given the rapid and sudden changes on COVID, on how to do business as a technology company, on rules and regulations for the private sector, rule of law and its absence, local competition, you name it. And so, even though I still fairly strongly believe that China's going to become the largest economy in the world by 2030, the idea that US corporations will be able to take as much advantage of that is increasingly uncertain. Almost any business leader you talk to in the United States is saying, "Yeah, China is an important market for us, but we are being more cautious about how much we want to invest there, going forward. At the very least, we're putting a pause on some of the big decisions we're making." And in many cases, they're starting to reduce some of that forward looking exposure.
Who are you going to invest towards if you're not investing in China? Well, Mexico in many ways is the country that stands to benefit the most outside of the United States. And indeed, in every meeting I had in three days in Mexico, I was hearing about near-shoring. It's a kind of awkward term, but basically the idea of multinationals based in the United States, doing a lot more on the ground in Mexico. Mexico's the 15th largest economy in the world. It is a large population, it's quite young, it's hardworking. The demographic's increasingly very attractive and it's strongly integrated into the US economy and supply chains. The fact that Tesla had just announced a $10 billion investment near Monterey while I was there was a big boost, a shot in the arm for the Mexican economy that a lot of people were talking about.
And so as a consequence, I mean, there's no question I meant think back on Lula's days, his first time around as president and how much his popularity was benefited by the fact that the economy was in a commodity super cycle and indeed, led to some 80%, even 90% of times approval ratings. I think that right now, Mexico benefits significantly from right place, right time, given what's happening geopolitically.
Now, looking to Mexico itself, I have to say that I was also surprised that Mexico's CEOs and bankers, who have been enormously negative pre-pandemic about then new President AMLO, and he doesn't like him, he doesn't want to talk to him, he's going to be a disaster, he is going to lead the economy into ruin, this time around, I heard still plenty of criticism, but also a recognition from the CEOs in Mexico and the bankers that, "Well, actually, he's not been as bad as we expected." What do you mean by that? Well, he hasn't actually raised taxes, he hasn't spent money on the fiscal balance that the government doesn't have. In fact, in many ways, he's been conservative as a leader in terms of small government, fiscal hawkishness. Mexico's debt to GDP is 50% right now and has stayed stable despite the pandemic. That's caused some challenges in terms of the ability of Mexico to make large scale investments into its domestic economy, given the pandemic. But nonetheless has made the business community feel more comfortable with him.
Instead, there's been a focus on tax collection and on reducing government expenditure. So much so that there's a problem on execution, weakening and inefficient, but nonetheless, comparatively talented civil service in Mexico. It's a reason why when you go to the World Bank or the IDB, you see so many former Mexico technocrats in the bureaucracy, because they were always seen to be some of the most talented from all of the Western hemisphere. Overall, I would say the Mexican economy is positioned to do quite well over the coming, let's say five, 10 years.
The domestic political issues are the biggest concerns. In particular, President Lopez Obrador going after his country's electoral institute, trying to take away some 80% of their funding, which would, if it went through, undermine the ability of Mexico to have free and fair elections. And there's really no justification for that decision. AMLO claims it's because he actually won the 2006 election, which was razor thin decided against him. And it's also why he was quite late to congratulate Biden on his 2020 win, you might remember that. And even some of his own supporters are befuddled by it, since AMLO's Morena party is likely to win upcoming elections anyway. Unlike Trump, Erdogan, Orban, Bolsonaro, all of these leaders, it's not like AMLO needs to gut Mexico's democracy in order to keep his party in power. But the other point is that he's also likely to fail at this so-called electoral reform as Mexico's Supreme Court will rule against the so-called reform. And there've also been massive demonstrations against it across Mexico, largely from the middle and upper classes, showing the power of Mexico's civil society which is hardly going away. This is not going to become an autocracy, just as Brazil hasn't, just as the United States hasn't.
And when he fails, he's almost certainly going to call his supporters against the corrupt Supreme Court, as he would have it, all of which does undermine rule of law in the country. I will say that I am less worried about this than some in the same way that I was less worried about January 6th in the US as not a coup, or January 8th in Brazil as not a coup and not able to fundamentally undermine democracy in these countries. In part because I fully expect AMLO will be out after his single constitutionally mandated six-year term, and I also think that either of his potential Morena party successors won't have the same charisma or capacity to pursue these sorts of policies.
But also, and here I think this isn't appreciated by many of AMLO's opponents, I do think that there are real issues here. I mean, AMLO is broadly skeptical of all sorts of, as he calls them, neo-liberal conservative elites, that's a mouthful, and their institutions, because they've had enormous access and influence across the board historically, including in the judiciary. They really could shape policy or stop initiatives, given their influence over all branches of government. There has been corruption. There has been a lot of corruption in the distribution of social benefits, in influence over Congress and legislation in procurement processes. Tax authority, where the Mexican government had been clearly letting companies off the hook, which AMLO has tried to change at least somewhat successfully. And I think part of the elite anger at this administration is that the elites can no longer influence the regulatory and legislative policy as they could before. And while the judiciary is an important and necessary check on AMLO's power, it's also hard to argue that economic elites haven't had undue influence on Mexico's court system. Both of those things are actually true.
There are other places I could spend time, there's been very limited success in curtailing violence in Mexico, dealing with the drug cartels. That's a long history of failure in Mexico and I don't come away any more optimistic from my trip in Mexico this week. I am a little bemused by the criticism though, that AMLO doesn't travel internationally enough. And it's true, he almost never leaves the country. He's been five years in office now, I think he's been to the United States four times, each time for one day. And he made one trip to Central America and Cuba and that's it. I mean, for the head of a G-20 economy, that is unheard of. And he also doesn't really care.
But I want to say it's not like there's any particular debate about Mexico's development model. It's not like people are saying, "Oh, maybe we need to work more with Europe or hedge with China." AMLO has zero interest in that and indeed, one of the first things he mentioned to me was his concern that China's growth would unbalance the geopolitical order and lead to conflict. There's something that underpins this that's very important, which is last year, Mexico's trade with Texas was five times its total trade with all of Latin America.
Unlike Brazil, unlike other developing countries where there's lots of discussion about potential competing development models, there really isn't with Mexico. It is a US and USMCA focused model and I think appropriately so. Meanwhile, AMLO has been traveling relentlessly across Mexico by car or on commercial airlines, meeting with the Mexican people. And he's the first president in a very long time that's spent that kind of time with Mexico's poor across the country and that's a big piece of his popularity, which has been quite high over the course of his entire term. I personally would like it if he would travel more because I care about foreign policy. But in the context of Trump's America First or Biden's US foreign policy for an American middle class, you can certainly understand that you can have more sympathy.
And I think about my own friend, Iván Duque, who I've known very well for years now, the former Colombian president, he's loved by the Washington establishment, but ultimately was very unpopular in Colombia, in part because he was seen as being kind of a creature of Washington consensus and not as interested in Colombia. And I think AMLO completely gets that in today's geopolitical environment, that just doesn't play.
I think the right comparison for AMLO on the global stage is Modi, India's prime minister, in terms of he's from the underclass. In the case of Modi, from the under caste, focuses on the underclass and wants to take on colonial elites and their institutions that have always been unpopular with the average people in the country. That includes the independent media and NGOs which are viewed, even if somewhat unfairly, as educated elites that don't care about the people and haven't historically.
By the way, when I mentioned the Modi comparison to AMLO, he immediately liked it. In fact, recognizes that he doesn't do as well in Mexico as Modi does in India because Modi also has the Hindu nationalism call card that he can play and does play, which AMLO is certainly not doing in terms of Catholicism and the role in Mexico's government institutions. Now, of course, that's a mixed bag. Because while Modi has become an essential friend to the United States as a part of the Quad, the relationship can only get so close and there is that tension between the United States and Mexico, and the West and Mexico accordingly.
But I do think that putting all of that in context gives you a lot more balance about what's happening in Mexico right now and Mexico's role with the US and Mexico's role that it doesn't have with a lot of the rest of the world than we've been reading in a lot of the media, and as a consequence, I thought it was really interesting to talk about it.
Anyway, that's it for me and I'm delighted that I've had a chance to get back there and I'm sure I will be again real soon, and I hope everyone is well. Talk to you soon.
- What We’re Watching: Biden in Mexico, Japan's Kishida on tour, Ukraine’s eastern flank ›
- What We’re Watching: Biden at the border, Three Amigos Summit, China’s reopening ›
- Immigration a Biden priority at Three Amigos Summit ›
- Can AMLO live up to Mexico’s critical moment? Jorge Ramos discusses ›
- The Graphic Truth: Bracing for a surge at the US-Mexico border ›
- AMLO wants a popular successor - GZERO Media ›
- Why Mexico is a key issue in the 2024 US election - GZERO Media ›
Northern Ireland trade deal ends Brexit but not UK's economic woes
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the UK finally move past Brexit now that a Northern Ireland trade deal has been resolved?
Oh, it's only been, what, six years. My God. And Brexit finally concluded now that Prime Minister Sunak has taken on his own Conservative Party and said, "No, we're just going to finally move on this." And people are sick of the economic challenges, that's, in part, why Truss got washed out so quickly as former PM, and it's also why he had the space to get this done. It means that you're not worried about the so-called hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and therefore, between the UK and the EU, and it means that the Brits can move on. But moving on, of course, still means that they no longer have integration with the world's largest common market, and that means that their performance economically will continue to drag below all of the rest of Europe and the United States, and that's really unfortunate. It's a massive own goal.
Will recent violence in the West Bank escalate into something more?
I expect so. I mean, keep in mind that you have no effective governance for the Palestinians in the West Bank or Gaza, you've got an incredibly right-wing coalition government led by Bibi Netanyahu, with only the thinnest of margins to keep the coalition intact, and no interest in moving forward on a two-state solution, and a great deal of interest in taking more land from the Palestinians. I saw an op-ed written in Haaretz, an Israeli center-left newspaper, just the other day, that claimed that Netanyahu was pushing forward a policy apartheid. You don't see that kind of commentary in Israeli newspapers about their own government. This all implies a lot more fighting between Israelis and Palestinians. The Americans inflectionally pushing from the sidelines, nobody really prioritizing the conflict or the issue, either in the region or in Washington, and certainly the Israelis and the Palestinians not having remote political interests try to back down and come to the table. All of that implies a lot more fighting going forward.
Why are Mexicans protesting AMLO's electoral law change as well?
Because he's trying to undermine the influence of the electoral commission. New legislation being put forward, some of it seemed to be against the Constitution and pushed back by the Supreme Court in Mexico, but some of it moving forward. People are angry, just like they have been in lots of countries, lots of democracies, where democratic institutions are getting weakened. For example, in Israel on the Supreme Court, you've seen massive demonstrations. That's basically what you're seeing right now in Mexico, an awful lot of people turning out on the streets, as we saw last weekend, against an effort to undermine checks and balances in a democratic country. The good news is that these democratic institutions are stronger and more resilient than a lot of the headlines would have you believe.
Protesters against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's plan to reform the electoral authority, in Mexico City, Mexico, February 26, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Mexicans protest AMLO changes, North Korea seeks grain, Iran hearts Ipanema, a controversial kiss from Kosovo
500,000 or 90,000?: How many people in Mexico City took part in recent mass protests against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s overhaul of the electoral system? Organizers say 500,000 turned out to oppose the changes, which would weaken independent election oversight. But authorities in Mexico City, which is controlled by AMLO’s party, say it was only 90,000.
1 million: North Korea is estimated to be short at least 1 million tons of grain right now because of mismanagement and pandemic-related interruptions of imports from China. That’s equal to about one-fifth of the Hermit Kingdom’s annual consumption. In the past, North Korea has suffered famines so bad that people were forced to eat grass and tree bark.
2: Brazil’s government allowed two Iranian warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend, despite demands from the US to turn them away. The move is a reminder that although Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Joe Biden may see eye to eye on a lot, Lula’s perspective — in line with much of the Global South — often differs from Washington’s on key issues such as China, Iran, and Ukraine.
3: The young Kosovo artist Ermira Murati has gotten thousands of threats over her striking, 3-meter tall painting of Kosovo PM Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic kissing. The two leaders, who famously despise each other, are meeting early this week in Brussels to try to reach a peace deal. Here’s our recent piece on why that’s so hard to do. And, while we’re kissing in the former Eastern bloc, here’s one of the greatest smooches of the 20th century.Destroyed buildings in the aftermath of the deadly earthquake, in Antakya, Turkey February 19, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Turkey/Syria quake death toll, Modi ally’s biz empire crumbles, West Bank violence, AMLO believes in elves
50,000: The death toll of the Feb. 6 Turkey/Syria earthquakes topped 50,000 on Sunday. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is feeling the heat over allegedly corrupt practices that led to so many collapsed buildings on his watch ahead of the May 14 election.
145 billion: The industrial empire of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani lost $145 billion — 60% of its value — in the month following allegations of fraud by Hindenburg Research, a US-based short seller, which Adani virulently denies. The Adani Group has faced years of corruption allegations, but it remains to be seen if the longtime ally of PM Narendra Modi is too big to fail.
2/1: Violence ensued in the West Bank on Sunday after a Palestinian gunman killed two Israeli settlers. That sparked a retaliatory rampage by settlers on the village of Hawara that killed at least one Palestinian, bringing the West Bank to boiling point.
7 million: Did someone leave the wardrobe open?! Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, tweeted a photo of what he claims is an “aluxe”, a mischievous woodland spirit from Mayan folklore requiring gifts to appease it. The tweet had 7 million views as of Monday morning and is not out of character for AMLO, who has long revered indigenous beliefs and culture.