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Beatrice Catena
What We're Watching: Tensions in Taiwan, violence in Nagorno-Karabakh, Erdoğan in Russia
Editions of Taiwanese newspapers reporting on U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's historic visit to Taiwan.
(More) trouble in Taiwan
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait are now at their highest level in a quarter-century after China fired ballistic missiles at waters near the self-governing island on Thursday. The launch was part of broader live-fire drills scheduled to conclude on Sunday — Beijing's furious answer to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan earlier this week. So, what might happen next? We're keeping an eye out for three things. First, whether China escalates even further by shooting missiles into waters off eastern Taiwan — thus violating the island's airspace, tantamount to declaring war. (By the way, the Chinese might need a bit of target practice after five projectiles landed inside Japan’s EEZ.) Second, how the drills will impact navigation and trade in the region, with many flights cancelled and cargo ships now avoiding the Taiwan Strait. Third, how the US will respond: 26 years ago Bill Clinton ended the last major US-China standoff over Taiwan in one military fell swoop, but it's unlikely Joe Biden will have the appetite to risk all-out war with China. Sanctions? Strong-worded statements blasting Beijing and supporting Taipei? You bet. But that'll be the end of it. Meanwhile, 23 million Taiwanese people will spend the next few days frantically awaiting China's next move.
Nagorno-Karabakh suffers flareup
Clashes between Armenian and Azerbjani forces reignited this week near the contested enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, a landlocked region in the South Caucasus. (For a good primer on the conflict, read our explainer here.) Both sides exchanged barbs Thursday and blamed the other side for violating a ceasefire, which resulted in gunfire that reportedly killed three soldiers. Several outlets have reported that Armenian separatists fired on the Azerbaijanis, who then retaliated. This sliver of territory — mostly recognized internationally as belonging to Azerbaijan — has been a flashpoint since it was occupied by Armenian separatists after a bloody war that ended in 1994. In 2020, a weeks-long war between the two sides led to 6,500 deaths and large swaths of territory being handed over to Baku as part of a Russian-backed truce, which includes Moscow keeping some 2,000 “peacekeeping troops'' in Nagorno-Karabakh (Moscow is technically treaty-bound to defend Armenia.) Azerbaijan has recently begun resettling people in the disputed territory, a process it’s calling “The Great Return,” which is clearly rubbing Armenians the wrong way.
Erdogan is first NATO leader to visit Russia since Ukraine war
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is set to meet with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia, on Friday – the first time a NATO leader has visited “Mother Russia” since it invaded Ukraine. In recent months, Turkey has ramped up its diplomatic efforts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, most notably brokering the recent grain export deal that has seen shipments set sail this week from the port of Odesa for the first time in months. Top of mind for Erdogan will be Syria, where Russia and Iran are on the opposite side of Turkey. Erdogan recently threatened to invade northern Syria to destroy Kurdish militant groups based there, but both Moscow and Tehran have warned him against an invasion. With Russia controlling much of Syrian airspace, Erdogan needs Putin’s permission before he can proceed with any move on Syria. Putin, meanwhile, may be looking to secure economic support in the face of western sanctions, which have battered his economy. Ongoing energy cooperation between the two will also likely be on the agenda, along with the situation in Ukraine, and rising tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh, where both sides have a stake.
What We're Watching: Somalia's new cabinet, takeaways from US primaries, Peru's president in peril
Somalia appoints former al Shabaab spokesperson as minister in Mogadishu
Somalia appoints former al-Shabab militant to cabinet
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre has named former al-Shabab spokesperson, Muktar Robow, as Somalia’s minister for endowment and religious affairs. A veteran of the Afghan war, who was training with al-Qaida in Afghanistan during 9/11, Robow helped found al-Shabab, which is fighting to overthrow the Somali government in a bid to invoke a strict interpretation of Sharia law. The militants have killed tens of thousands since 2007, and they’ve recently been involved in cross-border attacks in Ethiopia. Robow (aka Abu Mansour), who once had a $5 million bounty on his head, broke from the al-Qaida-linked militants back in 2017. Arrested by Somali authorities in 2018 to prevent him from running for office, Robow had been under house arrest in Mogadishu until last year, when he was taken back into custody. This week, he was released just before his new role was announced. As the new face of Somalia’s war against al-Shabab, Robow is tasked with helming the ideological battle against the terrorists. Some believe this will strengthen the government’s hand against al-Shabab, but critics fear it could lead to sectarian violence.
Key takeaways from US primaries
Five US states – Arizona, Missouri, Michigan, Washington, and Kansas – held primaries on Tuesday, giving an indication of the public mood in parts of the country just 12 weeks out from midterm elections. So, what happened? Trump-aligned candidates did pretty well. In Michigan, Rep. Peter Meijer – a freshman and one of just a handful of Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump – was defeated by an extreme pro-Trumper who has spread conspiracy theories (read lies) that Dems engaged in satanic rituals. In Arizona’s nail-biter GOP gubernatorial primary, Keri Lake, a Trump-backed TV presenter who propagates the former president’s lies about election fraud, was polling ahead of her rival with more than 80% of ballots counted. A slate of other Trump-aligned candidates also won primaries throughout the Grand Canyon state. Some Democrats will be happy with these outcomes, believing that far-right candidates will be easier to beat in battleground states this fall, but others have been critical of the strategy. Meanwhile, in Kansas, abortion-rights supporters were celebrating after 59% of voters rejected an amendment to the State Constitution to allow the state to regulate – or ban – abortion. High turnout in the Sunflower State suggests that abortion rights could indeed be an energizing issue for Democrats this fall.
Peru’s president in peril
Amid widening criminal investigations centered on President Pedro Castillo, Prime Minister Anibal Torres quit on Wednesday. Torres, a longtime Castillo ally, said he just wanted to go back to a quiet life of “legal research.” The resignation is the latest crumble of the cookie for Castillo, an upstart leftwing populist who stunned the country by winning the presidency last year, but who has been beset by scandals, missteps, and a fractious Congress since taking office. He is currently under investigation for alleged treason and for running a criminal enterprise from the presidential palace. Small wonder that his approval rating has plunged to below 20%, and our friends at Eurasia Group say it’s “only a matter of time” before lawmakers force him out. If this sounds topsy turvy, it is, but it’s also not unusual for Peru, where political parties are plentiful but weak, and presidents rarely have solid majorities in the legislature. The country went through a period in 2020 where there were three different presidents in the space of a month.Hard Numbers: Kansas abortion referendum, rocking the vote in Nigeria, deadly South African protests, pricey Komodo tourism
59: On Tuesday, 59% of voters in the US state of Kansas rejected granting the legislature authority to regulate abortion. The referendum result in the Sunflower State — where abortion is legal up to 22 weeks — is a big win for abortion-rights supporters in the aftermath of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.
10.49: Nigeria’s government has registered 10.49 million new young voters aged 18-34 in a bid to drive up a higher rate of participation in February’s presidential election. The country’s electoral commission embarked upon a year-long program to boost voter registration in order to buck a historical trend of low voter turnout.
4: Protests over soaring energy and food costs took a deadly turn in South Africa this week when four protesters were killed amid street violence in Thembisa township near Johannesburg. The deaths come just two weeks after the country’s former President Thabo Mbeki warned that mass discontent could soon lead to an Arab Spring-style uprising in the country.
252: Tourism workers at Indonesia’s Komodo Heritage Park, a UNESCO World Heritage site, have gone on strike over the local government’s decision to raise entry tickets from $13 to a whopping $252 to protect rare Komodo dragons from overexposure to humans. Locals say this will repel tourists and impact their pocketbooks, but authorities say the move is crucial to protecting the 3,300 endangered lizards.What We’re Watching: US kills Al-Qaida leader, Pelosi's Taiwan pit stop, Yemen holds its breath, tensions rise between Kosovo and Serbs
Osama bin Laden sits with his successor Ayman al-Zawahri.
US kills al-Qaida leader
President Joe Biden addressed the nation Monday night to make an announcement 21 years in the making: the US killed al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri in a drone strike in Kabul over the weekend. Osama bin Laden’s right-hand man and key architect in the 9/11 terror attacks was killed in the first US attack in Afghanistan since the American withdrawal last August. The operation – a major counterterrorism coup for Biden – reportedly saw al-Zawahri killed at the home of a staffer to senior Taliban leader Sirajuddin Haqqani. A CIA ground team, with the help of aerial reconnaissance, has confirmed the death. “My hope is that this decisive action will bring one more measure of closure,” Biden told loved ones of 9/11 victims. He also warned that the US “will always remain vigilant … to ensure the safety and security of Americans at home and around the globe.” With al-Qaida franchises having cropped up globally over the past decade, the death of Zawahri – who was wary of the brand’s localization and its effect on his authority – will present a challenge for control of the militant group.
Pelosi Taiwan fallout?
We won’t know whether US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan until she lands there or leaves Asia, but US and Taiwanese officials said Monday they expect she will spend a night there. In response, China’s foreign ministry has warned that the People’s Liberation Army “won’t sit by idly” if it decides Pelosi’s visit undermines China’s “territorial integrity.” It’s not that the US and Chinese governments don’t understand the sensitivity of the timing. The Biden administration, which has warned publicly against a Pelosi visit, is well aware that China’s upcoming Party Congress and its importance for President Xi Jinping’s future make this an extraordinarily provocative moment for a Taiwan visit from the highest-ranking US official to go there in 25 years. Beijing understands that in the US system of co-equal branches of government, the House Speaker doesn’t need the president’s permission to visit other countries. They also know that Pelosi probably won’t be speaker much longer, given the outlook for US midterm elections, and that this is probably her last chance to keep a promise to visit Taiwan. Each side understands, but neither Pelosi nor Xi sees a reason to back down. Keep watching this situation closely.
Yemen’s turning point
A four-month UN-sponsored truce is set to expire in Yemen on Tuesday. What happens next remains unclear. More than seven years of war between a government supported by Saudi Arabia and its regional allies on one side and Houthi rebels backed by Iran on the other has created a humanitarian crisis. Some 17 million Yemenis struggle to find food every day, and the war has inflicted so much damage on homes, schools, roads, and hospitals that even if peace takes hold it might take decades to rebuild. If peace does not take hold, beginning with an extension of the expiring truce, it will be because the two sides are still evenly matched militarily and have not surrendered their weapons — and because there is little trust between them.
Tensions rise in Kosovo
Ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo were supposed to switch their Serbian-issued license plates for Kosovan-issued ones this week, but Kosovo’s government has just delayed implementation by a month owing to simmering tensions. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, but tens of thousands of ethnic Serbs living there refuse to recognize the country, which Serbia still sees as its province. The new rules were meant to take hold on Monday, but ethnic Serbs have been protesting and barricading roads with tankers and trucks near two border crossings with Serbia. Police in Kosovo also say shots were fired toward them but that no one was hurt. Fears of rising Balkan instability – with the bloody conflict of the 1990s still fresh on everyone’s minds – led to the postponement. The US and EU have called for calm, and the NATO-led “Kfor” peacekeeping mission is "prepared to intervene if stability is jeopardized."
Hard Numbers: Grain ship finally departs Odesa, EU cash to Ukraine, monkeypox spreads in Brazil, BoE mulls big rate hike
The Sierra Leone-flagged ship Razoni leaves the sea port in Odesa after restarting grain export, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine.
26,000: The first grain-filled ship to leave the Black Sea port of Odesa set sail on Monday. Carrying 26,000 metric tonnes of Ukrainian corn, the ship will first stop in Istanbul en route to Lebanon.
1 billion: The EU disbursed 500 million euros on Monday to Ukraine, and another 500 million is set to drop on Tuesday. EU Commission VP Valdis Dombrovskis said the billion euro loan is the first part of a 9 billion euros financial package to help Ukraine amid the war, and that the EU will provide support “for as long as it takes.”
1,000: Brazil’s health ministry reports the country is battling close to 1,000 cases of monkeypox, with the cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro especially hard hit. Brazil has recorded one death from the virus; Spain has reported two.
25: While the Bank of England has raised interest rates by .25 percentage points several times since December, it is now mulling its highest benchmark rate in 25 years. The bank will announce on Thursday whether its new benchmark rate is 1.75% – a .50 percentage point hike.
The pandemic sent global supply chains into a tizzy. Then, just as economies were embarking on their post-COVID economic recoveries, Russia invaded Ukraine, upending the global grain trade and sending supply chains spiraling further. Supply chain frictions have a lot of unintended consequences: Brexit-related supply chain issues made it hard for some Brits to get their hands on a pint of beer, while China’s punitive zero-COVID policy drove the auto industry – among others – into a full-blown crisis. We take a look at the Global Supply Chain Index from 2000-2022 along with key global economic milestones.
Hard Numbers: Italian far-right soars, Chinese developers get help, Argentine minister sacked, Ukranians want war souvenirs
From left to right, the leaders of Forza Italia (Silvio Berlusconi), Brothers of Italy (Giorgia Meloni), and Lega (Matteo Salvini) attend an anti-government rally in Rome.
40: A week after Italian PM Mario Draghi's official resignation, a far-right coalition is on track to win the Sept. 25 parliamentary election. A Politico Europe poll says the Brothers of Italy, Lega, and Forza Italia parties will together scoop up 40% of the vote.
148 billion: China's central bank wants to mobilize $148 billion to help banks issue low-interest loans to heavily indebted real-estate developers so they can finish countless unfinished projects nationwide. Some Chinese homebuyers recently stopped paying their mortgages on these unfinished projects.
26: Argentina’s Economy Minister Silvina Batakis is reportedly getting fired after only 26 days in office. The president and the VP are too busy fighting each other to come up with a solution to the country’s deepening economic crisis, including an ongoing run on the peso and sky-high inflation.
500: A Ukrainian computer programmer bought an empty missile tube used against a Russian armed personnel carrier for $500. The charity auction in Lviv put a spotlight on the perhaps macabre but very real rising demand for war souvenirs.At least 17 people — including three UN personnel — have died after three days of violent protests against the UN peacekeeping mission in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Demonstrations in the region have now spread to other cities.
On Tuesday afternoon, hundreds of people surrounded and looted the UN base in Goma, demanding its forces withdraw from the eastern DRC. After the Congolese cops were unable to quell the protests, the UN decided to bring its peacekeepers home.
How we got here. The latest iteration of the UN peacekeeping mission in the DRC was established in 2010 to protect civilians in the eastern part of the country. But locals believe the UN peacekeepers have failed to do their job.
Bordering both Rwanda and Uganda, the eastern DRC is one of the most resource-rich yet conflict-ridden regions in sub-Saharan Africa. It suffered the chaotic exodus from the 1994 Rwandan genocide (committed by the majority ethnic Hutus against the minority Tutsis who now run the country), followed by two wars in 1996 and 1998. An estimated 120+ armed groups are now fighting there.
Things have gotten even worse since November 2021, when the M23 — a DRC-based rebel group claiming to defend DRC Tutsis against the Congolese military — began its latest offensive. Many in the DRC blame the M23's recent gains on Rwanda, which has long been accused of supporting the rebels (which the Rwandans deny).
A month ago, the DRC and Rwanda agreed to de-escalate tensions. But the violence persists, and people are getting tired — which in part explains the rage against the (UN) machine.
Why it matters. “Volatility in that region is kind of the executive status quo,” says Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey. But “any sort of intensification of that does create issues.”
And perhaps this time what’s happening is more troubling than the violence the region has seen for so many years.
This popular unrest is precisely what we should be watching out for, says Phil Clark, a professor at the SOAS University of London. The M23’s territorial gains have diverted attention away from what’s happening at the local level.
Never before, he explains, has the eastern DRC seen such popular active opposition, directed against several actors — Rwanda, the DRC government, the UN, and Tutsis — all at once.
“The thing that I think is worrying is how organized [it] is,” says Clark. “You’ve got these local leaders at the provincial and the village level very happily on camera, saying — go out and kill the Tutsis.”
If the protests managed to throw the UN out, it might spur more local unrest that could further worsen an already “combustible situation”.