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FILE PHOTO: Former U.S. President Donald Trump attends the closing arguments in the Trump Organization civil fraud trial at New York State Supreme Court in the Manhattan borough of New York City, U.S., January 11, 2024.
The Supreme Court throws Trump a bone
The US Supreme Court agreed to rule on former President Donald Trump’s contention that he is immune from prosecution for his actions in office, a surprise decision that will delay Trump’s trial for allegedly seeking to overturn the 2020 election.
Trump’s lawyers say a president can only be held accountable for actions taken in office through impeachment in the House of Representatives and conviction in the Senate. Critics say that would essentially put any president above the law – as Judge Florence Pan elucidated by asking Trump’s lawyer whether under this theory a sitting president could assassinate a rival and remain immune (Trump’s lawyer said “yes,” by the way).
What happens now: The Supreme Court set a trial date of April 22, and froze all Trump’s DC court proceedings in the meantime. The months of delay may prevent a conviction in advance of the election, even if the Supreme Court rules against him. Polling shows moderate and independent voters would be less likely to back Trump if he is convicted, so delaying trial long enough could moot the question.
Francis Fukuyama: Americans should be very worried about failing democracy
The prospect of another Trump presidency can be hard to imagine. Still, before we even get there, we must confront the possibility of political violence in the months leading up to November 5.
With the US presidential election on November 5, many Americans are pondering what another four years of a Trump presidency could mean for the country and the world. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The months leading up to November 5 (and the period after the election but before the January 20 inauguration) could be the most consequential in modern history. That's according to Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama, who warns that the capacity for violence amongst Trump supporters is unprecedented.
"In a way, Trump is preparing for this moment when there's massive protests, and he's got a lot of supporters, many of them are armed. And I think that on January 6th, he showed that he was, you know, completely comfortable with calling on his friends to use violence to, you know, support his ends."
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Divided we fall: Democracy at risk in the US
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Putin has a solution for US democracy ›
- American strife: Will US democracy survive? Fiona Hill explains post-Jan 6 stakes ›
- US democracy after US midterms: polarized voters & Trump's GOP ›
- Cliff Kupchan: We need a national dialogue to save US democracy ›
- Podcast: Not infallible: Russia, China, and US democracy with Tom Nichols & Anne-Marie Slaughter ›
- Al Gore's take on American democracy, climate action, and "artificial insanity" - GZERO Media ›
- In divided America, anything goes in the name of “protecting democracy" - GZERO Media ›
Law enforcement surround the Mississippi State Capitol
Hard Numbers: Bomb threats rattle state capitols, Egypt expands new desert metropolis, Myanmar junta springs prisoners, poll shows popular Jan. 6th conspiracy theory, “Bladerunner” walks out of jail
28: For several years now Egypt has been building a slick new capital city on a swathe of desert land 28 miles east of teeming, chaotic Cairo. Now officials plan to double the size of the undertaking. Supporters say the government needs a modern seat of power, and a new city to help absorb some of Egypt’s fast-growing population. Critics say it’s just a Neo-Pharaonic boondoggle that’s busting the country’s fragile finances and enriching President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s cronies.
9,652: Myanmar’s military government announced it will release 9,652 prisoners, including 114 foreigners, in an attempt to salvage foreign relations that have suffered since it seized power in a 2021 coup. Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, however, remains in prison, where she is serving a 27-year sentence for corruption that the United Nations regards as bogus.
25: Polling shows that 25 percent of Americans believe it is “definitely or probably true” that the FBI was behind the Jan 6th riot at the US Capitol. Supporters of Donald Trump are overrepresented among the group that believes this. The investigation into Jan 6th is ongoing, with 1,240 people connected to the attacks arrested so far. Trump has promised to pardon those who have been sentenced if he is re-elected later this year.
11: Throwback alert! Remember Oscar Pistorius, the South African paralympic superstar with carbon fiber legs who dazzled the world at the 2012 Games before he was convicted of killing his girlfriend by shooting her through a bathroom door? “Bladerunner”, as he was known, is getting out of jail on Friday, after serving 11 years for the killing.
Former President Donald Trump attends a campaign event in Waterloo, Iowa, on Dec. 19, 2023.
Colorado's Supreme Court disqualifies Trump from state primary ballot
The Colorado Supreme Court accepted the argument that the 14th Amendment disqualifies former President Donald Trump from running in 2024 after determining that he played a role in the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol. The game-changing decision — which will inevitably be taken to the Supreme Court — mandates that Colorado’s secretary of state exclude Trump from the state’s Republican primary ballot.
The court's decision is the first to find that the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment applies to Trump, and it could set a precedent for other states to pursue similar actions. So far, 14th Amendment cases in states like Michigan and Minnesota have failed to remove Trump’s name from any state ballot.
The ruling is stalled until Jan. 4, 2024, to allow time for Trump to appeal to the US Supreme Court. Trump's campaign promptly vowed to appeal the ruling to the nation's highest court. The primary season also begins in January, and if Trump becomes the nominee, the Supreme Court will need to rule quickly to avoid the unprecedented possibility of statewide disenfranchisement if the Republican presidential candidate is absent from an entire state’s ballot.
If the Supreme Court affirms this ruling, Trump could be disqualified from running in all states, drastically altering the landscape of the 2024 election. Many in the Republican Party will view the decision as an infringement on their right to vote for their candidate of choice while reinforcing their belief that Trump is the victim of a witch hunt. While this is unlikely to hurt Trump’s position as the Republican front-runner, a fierce legal battle lies ahead.
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis listens during the jury selection process at the Jury Assembly Room at Fulton County Courthouse in Atlanta.
Is the case against Trump in Georgia “ready to go?”
Speculation is rife that an indictment against former President Donald Trump in an ongoing Georgia investigation could be imminent after security barriers were recently erected outside Atlanta’s Fulton County Courthouse. Yesterday, a judge in Fulton County refused Trump’s demand that the courts throw out evidence and disqualify Fani T. Willis, the district attorney pursuing the investigation.
This development comes just days after a recent interview in which Willis said that “the work is accomplished ... we’re ready to go.”
Of all of Trump’s legal woes, the Georgia case – which is linked to allegations that the former president tried to pressure electoral officials to overturn the state’s 2020 election results – has been the most highly anticipated, largely due to the clarity of damning evidence.
The case was prompted after a leaked tape in Jan. 2021 revealed Trump calling on Georgia's top electoral official to “find” the votes – some 11,780 ballots – needed to get him over the finish line, though President Joe Biden ultimately won the state. Trump has since called it a “perfect phone call” but many legal scholars tend to disagree.
Indeed, the investigation also focuses on other high-profile GOP functionaries, including Trump’s former lawyer Rudy Giuliani, and 16 rank-and-file Republicans who falsified documents claiming Trump won the state. At least half of the 16 have since reached immunity deals with the DA’s teams (though precise details remain unknown) and could serve as witnesses.
Looking ahead: It’s unclear what the timing would be for a potential trial, but Trump’s schedule is certainly filling up. The former president is slated to go to trial in New York in March on charges linked to hush money payments made in the lead-up to the 2016 election. Then, in May, he faces federal charges related to his handling of classified documents. Meanwhile, the Justice Department is also looking into Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection, a case that reportedly has some overlap with the one in Georgia.
Though much is still up in the air, a few things remain clear. First, authorities in Georgia are clearly worried about protests and potential violence should an indictment be handed down against Trump in a purple state that will help determine the outcome of the 2024 vote.
Second, whatever happens, this case is unlikely to have much (or any) impact on Trump’s swelling popularity as he continues to cultivate a massive lead over other GOP hopefuls. Consider that a new NYT-Siena College poll released Monday shows Teflon Don with a whopping 37-point lead over Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis.
What’s more, Trump would still reap 22% of the vote from those who believe he has committed federal crimes, which is five points more than DeSantis would receive from the entire Republican electorate.
Capitol riot tops list of most serious charges against Trump
Donald Trump has already been indicted for business fraud in New York. But that's not the only open case against the former US president, who's running again in 2024.
So, where is he in most legal jeopardy? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asks Preet Bharara, former US attorney for the Southern District of New York, to rank the severity of the other potential charges Trump faces.
According to Bharara, “the most severe charge is related to the Jan. 6 riot, followed by the issue surrounding the Georgia election, and then the issue of mishandling classified documents.”
What's more, Bharara says that the conduct surrounding Jan. 6 is particularly severe as it threatened the peaceful transfer of power and led to several deaths.
Watch this episode of GZERO World: Parsing Donald Trump's indictment
Toxic social media & American divisiveness
Are America's social and political divisions a greater threat to its future than any external force? On this episode of GZERO World, tech expert and NYU Professor Scott Galloway argues that despite its geopolitical and economic strength, America's social fabric is fraying due to “a lack of camaraderie, patriotism, and connective tissue.”
He blames social media for creating the sense that things are much worse than they are and worries that artificial intelligence may only make a growing problem much worse.
Galloway suggests antitrust measures, criminal charges, and mandatory national service as possible solutions to the problems America is facing. “I don’t think this will get better until someone a, key executive at a big tech company is criminally charged and walked off.”
Watch the full interview with Galloway on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: The AI arms race begins: Scott Galloway’s optimism & warnings
Supporters of Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro are pictured through a broken glass as they demonstrate against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva outside the Congress building in Brasilia.
Brazil's Jan. 6 came two days late
We warned you this might happen …
In Brazil's answer to Jan. 6, hundreds of supporters of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the country's parliament, presidential palace, and Supreme Court on Sunday. The mob marched from army HQ in Brasília towards the heart of Brazilian politics, the Praça dos Três Poderes (Three Powers Plaza), where they broke police lines to enter the buildings housing the legislative, executive, and judiciary powers while being tear-gassed by cops.
Huh? Didn’t Bolsonaro already concede the 2022 election? Technically he didn’t, although he did agree in vague terms to a transition of power to his nemesis: the left-wing Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva — a nuance that fell on deaf ears among Bolsonaro’s most diehard fans.
Indeed, thousands of the former president’s loyalists who refused to accept his defeat by Lula have been camping out for weeks in Brasília and other cities calling for a military coup presumably to reinstate Bolsonaro. Meanwhile, as Lula was sworn in for his third term as president exactly one week ago, Bolsonaro was spotted eating KFC in Florida after skipping the inauguration to spend new year’s eve at Mar-a-Lago with his buddy, former US President Donald Trump.
Like Jan. 6 in the US, it was all (mostly) over in a matter of hours. Lula immediately declared a "federal security intervention" in the capital district — a state of emergency that gives his government special powers to restore law and order in Brasília until the end of the month. The security forces retook control of the three buildings briefly occupied by the protesters, and at least 400 people have been arrested.
But unlike in America, it seems that members of the security and intelligence apparatus were in cahoots with the rioters. In a televised national address, a visibly angry Lula blamed his predecessor for encouraging the uprising and accused local cops of being either ill-willed or incompetent for having let the mob breach the security perimeter.
The president also vowed to go after the rioters and their financial backers. (The first head to roll was Brasília's pro-Bolsonaro governor, suspended by the Supreme Court for 90 days despite firing his security chief, a former Bolsonaro minister who's reportedly now in Florida.)
And what about Bolsonaro? It took him a while, but hours after the crisis ended he fired off a series of tweets to condemn the violence, deny he had anything to do with it, and note that the invasion of public buildings "crossed the line."
What happens next? Once the dust (quite a bit of it) settles on Brazil's ransacked capital, expect Lula's government to launch a full-scale investigation into what happened, who was behind it, and whether Bolsonaro played any role. And whatever the outcome, it'll likely further fan the flames of political polarization in Brazil.