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How will the summer of 2024 be remembered in US history?
We are living through history in the making, and it is stressful. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asks media journalist Brian Stelter and Vanderbilt historian Nicole Hemmer how future generations will view the current political moment in the United States.
They’ll learn, Stelter says, that “the struggle for a true multiracial democracy was incredibly volatile, was in times even scary." He points out that this tumultuous period is characterized by fierce battles between figures like Donald Trump, who offer simplistic solutions, and figures like Joe Biden, who resist such approaches. They’ll learn that “figures like Donald Trump came forward with easy solutions that actually weren't that easy at all” and that “figures like Joe Biden came forward to try to resist the Trumps of the world."
Nicole Hemmer echoes Stelter's sentiments, describing the current era as a testing ground for multiracial democracy. “This will either be a story of counter-majoritarian institutions stamping out public desires, or it will be a story of reforms that remade those institutions in order to make them reflect the will of the people.” We'll either be a more or less democratic United States after this moment, Hemmer adds, and what happens in the next months and years will decide that.'
Watch full episode: Trump, Biden & the US election: What could be next?
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Extremists vs. moderates: The real divide in US politics
In a lively exchange for the latest episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer and media journalist Brian Stelter delve into the true nature of political divisions in the United States. Stelter argues that the real divides are not simply between Democrats and Republicans but between extremists and moderates. He emphasizes that "most people, whether they vote Republican or vote Democrat, denounce political violence... they want a stable political system."
Stelter calls these moderates the "great silent majority," but they are overshadowed by the vocal extremists on both ends of the political spectrum. "I wish it was possible to make the normies, the people in the middle, the moderates, more visible, to make their voices louder."
Bremmer and Stelter also discuss the unifying aspects of American society, suggesting that despite apparent divisions, there is significant common ground among the general populace. "Most Americans,” Stelter adds, “have a lot more in common than they realize." And what they have in common, most of all, is a desire to end this constant political chaos.
Watch the full episode: Trump, Biden & the US election: What could be next?
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Trump's close call and the RNC: Brian Stelter and Nicole Hemmer weigh in on a historic week in US politics
Listen: We're watching history happen in real-time. Never before was that fact more apparent than this week, when former President Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt, picked his VP candidate, presided over a united GOP at the Republican Convention, and all while a Democratic Party in disarray continued to clamor for Biden to step aside.
It's amazing that the afterthought for the week is whether the sitting President will remain on the ticket for an election just months away. But that's where we are.
In the latest episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer reflects on this pivotal week in US politics and welcomes back media journalist and former CNN show host Brian Stelter on the show alongside Vanderbilt political historian Nicole Hemmer. “We're living in a period of escalating political violence and social and political instability,” Hemmer tells Bremmer. “That was true in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and I think that it's true today."
In a wide-ranging conversation that touches on all the major news of the week, Hemmer and Stelter dig into the political divisions that led to this moment of horrific political violence. “The real divides are not between Democrats and Republicans, although those are real” Stelter adds. “But the biggest divide that we're seeing is between extremists and those who are moderates, the great silent majority."
Both guests also comment on the media's role in this fraught environment, with Hemmer critiquing prediction-focused coverage and Stelter advocating for better representation of casual news consumers and politically fatigued voters. The three also discuss the likelihood of Biden stepping down, an eventuality that Stelter argues is inevitable. “It is clear the Democratic Party elites are not with Biden. And I don't see that tide turning. I don't see how it changes.”
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Breaking news: Trump shot in apparent assassination attempt
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and responding to what is certainly a very dramatic turn of events in my country, the United States, with former President Trump at a rally appearing to have been shot, an apparent assassination attempt, and he's okay, but certainly didn't have to go that way. It looks like he was at least hurt, a minor injury, grazed, blood on his ear, got back up when the shots stopped, and again, appears to be fine. But that cannot be said for the state of American democracy.
This is a very grave turn of events in a country that is very deeply polarized, in a country where a great many Americans do not believe that their democracy is healthy or particularly functional, and where a large majority of Americans believe that the domestic political opposition is out to destroy that democracy. This is the worst sort of event that can happen in that environment, and I deeply worry that it presages much more political violence and social instability to come. This is the kind of thing that we have seen historically in lots of countries facing instability. It frequently does not end well. And the US, of course, is far more powerful; its institutions are resilient, but they have been under stress and eroding an attack for decades now.
Lots of things to say about this. Maybe the first, about the campaign itself, is that image of Trump standing up with blood on his face and injured and with his fist raised up and the Secret Service all around him, and it was he's saying fight, fight, and there's a flag above him is an iconic image. I suspect it is an image that will become very, very important for the remainder of this campaign. It makes it more likely that Trump wins. The fact that President Biden and his serious vulnerability is his age and that he's seen to not be physically robust, that he's frail, that he will, and we saw that with the debate, and everyone's talked about it for two weeks. This is the opposite of frail, and I don't know if it was adrenaline or instinct or what it was that got into Trump after someone tried to shoot him, but that response and being caught on tape is, I think, going to be a rally for his people for a long time. And I expect it to lead all the headlines on this issue as people across the world see it over the coming hours and days. So, that's the first topic.
The second is what has to happen now as a consequence. And I think it's utterly essential that everyone across the American political spectrum denounces this political violence. Everyone denounces this assassination attempt and calls for calm from their supporters going forward and that this has no place in a democracy, however damaged. Ideally, that is done in a bipartisan manner, that is done in Congress, in the House, and in the Senate. Not with individual posts, and comments, and tweets, but from the entirety of a joint session condemning it and working for peace and a peaceful transition, whatever the results of the election going forward, no matter what. That's what the country needs. I am deeply suspect that it's not going to happen. I'm deeply suspect that former President Trump, President Biden, will not be willing or able together to do that and that many of their supporters will have no such interest. But that's what the country needs. It's utterly essential in this environment.
Secondly, we should be prepared for more violence. And I would say this across the political spectrum: the United States has more gun availability and violence than any G7-advanced industrial democracy by a long margin. Political extremism and disinformation have been weaponized through the media landscape, and particularly through social media. There are large numbers of people, of course, that are spreading conspiracy theories. And there are also external actors like Russia, like Iran, like China, like North Korea, and others that are very interested in taking advantage of US division and dysfunction, and further using their resources as a megaphone to support and stoke more political violence and instability in the United States. And at a time when Americans believe that the other political side is out to destroy US democracy, then the stakes are very high. And the willingness of some to use political violence is far greater, certainly, than we've seen at any point since 1968, but perhaps at any point since the Civil War. So, that is a real concern.
I think that finally, and I'm sure I'll have a lot more to say about this as we learn more, but one point I really do want to make is that democracy around the world is not in crisis right now. This is a year of many, many elections, and we've seen them in India, the world's most populous country, 1.5 billion people. We've seen it across the European Union, the largest common market. We've seen it in France, in the United Kingdom, in Mexico, rich countries, poor countries, democracies all they have had free, fair options with peaceful transitions. That is not what we are seeing right now in the United States. The US is the only major democracy in the world today that is experiencing a serious crisis. And we do ourselves no favors by normalizing the events of the past months of this election, and the events that we've just witnessed in the past moments in the United States.
This is going to require people to recognize that US political institutions are in danger, and that they require our protection together as citizens to uphold the values that we believe in. If further devolution into blamesmanship, into polarization, into the weaponization of politics, is the way you lose your democracy. And those stakes are very real, certainly much more real than at any point in my lifetime.
So that's where we are right now. I hope everyone is going to continue to follow this and engage. It's a really important issue, and I'll do my best to share my thoughts as honestly as I know how. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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The US is the world's most dysfunctional major democracy
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. I want to talk about US elections and democracy.
This has been the year 2024 of elections all over the world. And most of them are going just fine. I mean, pretty much almost all of them. Okay, Russia is not a democracy. So you shouldn't really talk about elections because it's not like the people actually have a choice. It's Putin or it's Putin. But everywhere else, we've had elections that are free and fair and peaceful, and they've led to stable transitions, whether they're voting people out, or whether they're clipping their power or whether they're doubling down on them. And that's been true in Indonesia and Mexico and South Africa, India, the European Parliament. And soon it will be true in the coming weeks, first in France and in the United Kingdom. So it's not like democracy all over the world is in crisis or is about to fall apart. It's not like most countries can't have normal elections.
But the United States is an outlier. it's of course, the most powerful country in the world, but it's also the most dysfunctional major democracy. It's a democracy in crisis, and it's getting worse. In 2020, of course, there was an election that was very seriously contested. Former President Trump claimed the vote was rigged. It wasn't. But he continues to push forward that narrative. And it has been supported by pretty much the entire Republican Party leadership because he's in charge of the party and as a consequences believed by a strong majority of Republican voters. That is unique among advanced industrial democracies.
And indeed, you see Trump continuing to say the only way the election could be legitimate this time around is if he wins. If he loses, it's obviously rigged. That's clearly problematic for a former president and a presidential candidate in a democracy. But it's worse than that because this time around, you have questions of legitimacy that are beyond the vote, but about the nature of the election itself. Trump's view, whether he believes it or not, is sort of immaterial, but certainly it's what he is promoting, is that the indictments against him, the criminal cases against him, now the 34 convictions against him are politicized by the Democratic Party, by President Biden to make it impossible for him to win a legitimate election. In other words, using the political power of the incumbent party and leadership to delegitimize the election.
That's what he's saying. Again, it's not true, but to the extent that that is the case that implies that, if Trump loses, it's not just because of a rigged vote, it's because of a rigged system. It's because, you know, he was undermined by these illegitimate cases, by the criminalization of the entire judiciary, the capture of the one branch of government by another branch of government, and it's politicization. So that that's the way that Trump is running, Biden is running, saying that Trump is a clear and present danger to democracy, that the country could become authoritarian, that you could lose your democracy if he becomes president. So everything is at stake.
And also the fact that he has been impeached twice, the fact that he has faced these indictments, including convictions, means that he is illegitimate, shouldn't be allowed to run for president, never mind be elected president. That is the Democratic view that Trump is not legitimate as a candidate. So it goes beyond who wins the vote.
It's the reality that Trump and Biden are now portraying the other as illegitimate in terms of the way that the election is being conducted itself. The very reality of a democratic election in that regard no longer holds for the messaging coming from the Democratic and Republican leadership. So is this about Trump? And the answer is only partially, he is a major symptom of the dysfunction and the crisis that US democracy is presently facing.
But it is also very important to recognize a deeper problem, which is that, many Americans believe that their country, my country, is no longer a representative democracy. That powerful, moneyed, special interests, across the board, whether we talk about the defense complex or, pharmaceutical companies or big finance or, you name it, the NRA or the teachers lobby or the police lobby or you name it, that powerful interests are able to capture the political system policies, the regulatory system, and ensure that government does not reflect the interests of the average American.
And it is true that the US is far more captured by special interests. And you see this with the Citizens United ruling by the Supreme Court. You see this with the ungodly amount of money that goes into campaigning for American elections from the presidency all the way down to the House of Representatives. You see this across the board in the way policy can and cannot be made in the United States.
And this is why you have people talking about a uniparty or the blob in foreign policy or even the deep state. And a lot of this is conspiracy theory, and it's certainly not true that there was a shadowy group of people that are actually forming, you know, sort of policy and controlling the president. But the reality, in a sense, is more disturbing than that. It is that the system is so structurally weak and so controlled by money and power of people that are not voted for office that it feels like an non-representative, non-democracy to large numbers of Americans who no longer share the values that America was founded on. They don't see that the country reflects that.
And to the extent the US is unique among G7 countries in being unrepresentative in governance of its people, you see a lot of that in Trump support, that people out there want someone who is angering the establishment, angering the mainstream media, someone that says he's going to break the system, he's going to bring a corrupt system to heel. And certainly you see a little bit of that in Trump's stated policies, like on wanting to end wars, for example, and why Trump doesn't support free trade and instead wants more subsidy, more industrial policy in the US, Trump's China policy, which precedes Biden's China policy but is largely similar, focused much more on that. But of course, it's also true that Trump's “drain the swamp” mantra only makes sense if you don't look at a lot of Trump's domestic policies.
I mean, Trump was the leader in my life who was most aligned to ensuring that rich people get richer, was most aligned with big finance and hedge funds and major corporations and big oil and fast food and manufacturing and, you know, pro-dumping all of these things. I mean, you look at his cabinet with Sonny Perdue as the secretary of agriculture, and Elizabeth DeVos as the secretary of education, and on and on and energy and treasury and you name it.
What you see the reality of Trump's cabinet was the swampiest, of pro special interests, pro very powerful people. And that's why Trump was so welcomed when the Business Council last week invited him to go and speak, as soon as he said yes, (and Biden was invited too, didn't make it, sent an representative), immediately far more CEOs, went to watch. Why? I mean, one, because they want to make sure that they're connected with someone who can be president. But two, because a lot of Trump's policies, will benefit the wealthiest and the most powerful people in the country. And so in that regard, you know, Trump can throw things like, you know, build the wall, identity politics, anti-DEI. But the reality is that the most powerful will do the best, at least in the short term. Under a Trump administration, that's the revealed preference we've seen, with the alignment that he has with those that give the big money.
So, anyway, that is a little bit for me, a little bit of the state of democracy is challenged as it is. I'm not looking forward to this election, in part because it's horrible to see your country go through this identity crisis and not align itself with the values that I think a lot of people around the world, and a lot of people in the US would like to see America do a better job with. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Do Donald Trump’s criminal convictions put American democracy at risk?
“Having crossed the Rubicon [of January 6],” Glasser says, “I think that the idea that we’re just treating this as a normal election between two warring tribes with different ideologies is really what history is going to remember about this moment, unfortunately.”
“We’ve grown accustomed to the luxury of repeated, peaceful transfers of power,” Bharara adds, “There’s nothing that guarantees that just because the US has been a great democracy, it will persist in being democratic.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Will Trump's criminal conviction cost him votes?
Just days after former President Donald Trump’s historic felony conviction, Ian Bremmer sits down with the New Yorker’s Susan Glasser and former US Attorney Preet Bharara to discuss the impact of the verdict conviction on the 2024 election and democracy itself.
What does Donald Trump’s historic criminal conviction mean for the 2024 election and for democracy itself? As the first US president to be convicted of a crime, Trump’s 34 felony counts have stirred significant political and legal turmoil, with many in his party faithful choosing the former president over the justice system. "The GOP's revisionist history on the trial has already begun," Glasser tells Bremmer. Bharara also underscores the trial’s legitimacy, stating, "It was an open and fair proceeding. There was a judge who ruled often for the prosecution, but often as well for Donald Trump's side."Bharara addresses the allegations of political motivation behind the trial, telling Ian, "The accusations that some folks on the Trump side are making about how this was a politicized witch hunt, it was preordained, all of that" is a dangerous game. Bharara also highlights the gravity of the situation, saying, "There are people on the progressive side, on the Biden side who think that democracy is in danger. I'm one of those people." Glasser echoes this concern, reflecting on Trump's impact on elections, "What Trump tried to do in 2020 as well as 2016 was to nullify the votes of an election and therefore of the people, the masses' votes, not the individuals."
Both guests underscore the critical crossroads at which American democracy stands and the profound consequences of Trump's conviction for the upcoming election. Whether or not Trump wins in November is an open question. So, too, is the fate of our democratic institutions.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
In divided America, anything goes in the name of “protecting democracy"
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your Monday morning. Let's talk for a moment about the state of US politics, US democracy. It's the one thing that almost all Americans today can agree on, and that is that their political opponents at home are fundamentally opposed to democracy.
Now, that is actually something I think that unites Americans in kind of a weird way. If you are a Biden supporter, you believe that Trump and MAGA supporters are fundamentally opposed to democracy. If you are a MAGA supporter, you believe that Biden and the establishment Democrats are fundamentally opposed to American democracy. It is incredibly dysfunctional. It is no way to operate a government.
It is no way to build a nation. And that means, you know, when you believe that your political opponents are opposed to democracy, you take away their value as people, you think that their political views are wrong and they need to be erased. They don't need to be engaged with sensibly. You also believe that anything that you might do to ensure that your opponents don't take power is justified because you're fighting over something very essential. And so it's kind of Machiavellian. It's the ends justify the means. Any means are justified if your opponents are fundamentally opposed to your system. And I mean, I certainly have political views of who I think is and is not appropriate. And I've said that historically, and I will continue to with this election. But this piece is not about this.
This piece is about the need not to jump into “the ends justify the means” in American politics, not believing that every slight or perceived slight is an 11 on a ten point scale. I think that Trump has committed real crimes, in my view. I look at his unwillingness, for example, to respond to the FBI and efforts to obscure, actively obscure where his classified documents were and weren’t and get his people to move them and lie about it. It's never the crime itself. It's the cover up of the crime that really gets you in trouble. That does, I think, make a real difference in the way that the classified documents case plays out for Trump as it did for Biden, who should not have had documents in many places but was completely forthcoming in responding to government requests.
I also think that for Trump, the Georgia case, in attempting to overturn to find votes in an election, a state election that was administered by, run by members of his own Republican Party, that's a serious issue. I think it would be impeachable. But impeachment no longer functions as a check on the executive in the United States. That part of the US political system is broken, has become politicized. It should be tried in a court of law, is being tried in a court of law. But there will be no conviction, in my view, certainly not before the election is over. And it's been mishandled by the prosecutor for her own ethical lapses. Now, that case does not make me feel that all cases against Trump are legitimate or should be pursued.
Some of them, in my view, are ridiculous. The fact that a bond was set for almost half a billion dollars and then a New York court said, no, actually 175 million implies that the original setting of that bond was politicized against Trump. A felony charge in New York would have been misdemeanor for any other citizen, politicized by a district attorney that was looking to make a name for himself politically in a state that is overwhelmingly anti-Trump. Take Trump off the ballot in Colorado or other states too. Ridiculous. Not in accordance with rule of law. And thankfully, a divided Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that that should not proceed. Nonetheless, there were lots of intelligent people in several states, in the United States in positions of authority that believed that they should take Trump off the ballot.
Because if someone is trying to destroy democracy, anything you do against that person is acceptable. We see these kinds of things being promoted in the political hit jobs that are being done across the board by cable news and in social media. The headlines you would think you were in two different countries. The people you follow, you'd think that they reflect two different worlds, never mind world views.
This happened yet again. This Easter weekend. Here I was minding my own business, candlepin bowling with the family on Easter Sunday, and turns out that it is proclaimed by Biden that Easter is the Transgender Day of Visibility. Easter Sunday. Can you believe that? What he or she is risen? Is that what we've come to as America? I mean, you can just imagine that the anti-Biden folks were apoplectic that he could do that. And of course, it turns out a little bit of research. That's not what happened at all. Actually turns out that the Transgender Day of Visibility is not new. It's been going on for over a decade. It's always on March 31st, which is only Easter Sunday. Every seven years, give or take a leap year. And there are literally hundreds and hundreds of days all throughout the year that get proclaimed as various days. And nobody really cares or pays attention except that we're in stupid season right now in a country where the most important thing politically is that you are able to score a point and take a piece off of your political opponent.
And the more we do that, the less we can talk to our fellow citizens. And it's not the country that any of us actually want to live in. It is being driven by political entrepreneurs that use that violent political sensibility to stay in power, to achieve power, to make money. It's being driven by media organizations that are having a hard time raising money to continue to feed their shareholders.
And so as a consequence, they are much more willing to drive anything, any headline for clicks. And of course, it's being driven by algorithms and social media that only give you the things that you agree with or that are going to make you very angry and to drive more and more engagement. And every one is very easily shaped by that.
Even if you spend only a little bit of time on politics. But that time is always being pushed in favor of you and your political tribe and opposed to the tribe that you want to defeat, then there is no common ground. There's no sensibility. Anything they say is wrong and should be used against them. Anything you and your team say is correct. And if you believe that and if you're following people who only engage in support in one side of the partisan divide, then you are part of a propaganda bubble. You are being misled politically, you're being spun up, you're being taken advantage of, you're being used. And increasingly that is the dominant theme in this very long, very expensive US election.
And I am going to continue to do everything I can to refuse to play ball in that easier, since I'm not a member of a political party and I've never been in a political position. Harder in the sense that everyone's going to whack you one time or another if you irritate their sensibilities. But at the end of the day, I'd be unhappy with myself if I did anything else, and that kind of matters, right? So anyway, that's my view for this election. I'm sure I'll come back to this theme again and again. But it seems to have been a lot in the headlines of late, so I thought I would make mention of it.
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