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Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
Donald Trump is the first presidential candidate in American history to be convicted of a crime. What does this mean for his campaign? Well honestly, probably not all that much. Voters have shown no indication they care about this trial at all so far, instead focusing on issues like the economy, immigration, senior services, crime, but not really Trump's trials. That could change through the course of the campaign.
And ironically now that Trump is out of the courtroom and free to campaign again, President Biden will be able to draw more attention to the things that voters don't like about Trump, such as efforts to overturn the 2020 elections. This campaign still has a lot of time left to run however, and there's a lot that can go wrong for either candidate. Trump has leads and all the critical polls for now but as he hits the campaign trail throughout the summer, and as Joe Biden continues to try to define him that lead could slip. But probably this guilty verdict will just be added to the long list of unconventional things that Trump has done throughout the years that voters also don't like, and somehow they continue to grow to be comfortable with him - and his lead in the polls is unlikely to slip from where it is today. Stay tuned for more of what we're watching in US politics next week.