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Do Donald Trump’s criminal convictions put American democracy at risk?
“Having crossed the Rubicon [of January 6],” Glasser says, “I think that the idea that we’re just treating this as a normal election between two warring tribes with different ideologies is really what history is going to remember about this moment, unfortunately.”
“We’ve grown accustomed to the luxury of repeated, peaceful transfers of power,” Bharara adds, “There’s nothing that guarantees that just because the US has been a great democracy, it will persist in being democratic.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Will Trump's criminal conviction cost him votes?
Just days after former President Donald Trump’s historic felony conviction, Ian Bremmer sits down with the New Yorker’s Susan Glasser and former US Attorney Preet Bharara to discuss the impact of the verdict conviction on the 2024 election and democracy itself.
What does Donald Trump’s historic criminal conviction mean for the 2024 election and for democracy itself? As the first US president to be convicted of a crime, Trump’s 34 felony counts have stirred significant political and legal turmoil, with many in his party faithful choosing the former president over the justice system. "The GOP's revisionist history on the trial has already begun," Glasser tells Bremmer. Bharara also underscores the trial’s legitimacy, stating, "It was an open and fair proceeding. There was a judge who ruled often for the prosecution, but often as well for Donald Trump's side."Bharara addresses the allegations of political motivation behind the trial, telling Ian, "The accusations that some folks on the Trump side are making about how this was a politicized witch hunt, it was preordained, all of that" is a dangerous game. Bharara also highlights the gravity of the situation, saying, "There are people on the progressive side, on the Biden side who think that democracy is in danger. I'm one of those people." Glasser echoes this concern, reflecting on Trump's impact on elections, "What Trump tried to do in 2020 as well as 2016 was to nullify the votes of an election and therefore of the people, the masses' votes, not the individuals."
Both guests underscore the critical crossroads at which American democracy stands and the profound consequences of Trump's conviction for the upcoming election. Whether or not Trump wins in November is an open question. So, too, is the fate of our democratic institutions.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
GOP's response to Trump verdict: An "ominous sign" for the future?
It’s far too early to say how former President Trump’s 34 felony convictions in the New York hush money case will affect the 2024 US presidential election, but make no mistake, the verdict has far-reaching implications for the future of the Republican party.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer was joined by New Yorker columnist Susan Glasser and former US attorney Preet Bharara for a frank look at what Trump’s conviction means for the GOP moving forward. As historic as Trump’s conviction is, the political response may be even more unprecedented and could have dangerous implications not just for Republicans or capital “D” Democrats but for our already fragile, lower-case “d” democracy.
“This is a marker of the escalation that we’re seeing in 2024,” Glasser says, pointing to the GOP attacks on the US justice system, “I think it’s a sign of where the Republican party is at, that they’ve essentially mortgaged the party so completely to the fate of one individual, that they’re willing to tear down what remains of faith in our institutions.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Will Trump's criminal conviction ruin his campaign - or American democracy? Insights from Susan Glasser and Preet Bharara
Listen: On this episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer discusses the political and legal implications of Donald Trump’s felony conviction for the 2024 election and for democracy itself with the New Yorker’s Susan Glasser and former US Attorney Preet Bharara.
He’s the first US president to be convicted of a crime. Donald Trump’s 34 felony counts have upended the 2024 Presidential election (for now) and exposed the vulnerability of core democratic institutions like the justice system.
"The GOP's revisionist history on the trial has already begun," The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser tells Bremmer. Former US Attorney Preet Bharara also underscores the trial’s legitimacy, stating, "It was an open and fair proceeding. There was a judge who ruled often for the prosecution, but often as well for Donald Trump's side."
"The [Republican] party” Glasser adds, “has essentially mortgaged itself to the fate of one individual."
Both guests underscore the critical crossroads at which American democracy stands and the profound consequences of Trump's conviction for the upcoming election. Whether or not Trump wins in November is an open question. So, too, is the fate of our democratic institutions.
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- Biden vs Trump foreign policy: Political scientist Stephen Walt weighs in ›
- Preet Bharara on the legal troubles of former President Trump ›
- Trump has been found guilty. Will voters care? ›
- What the Trump trial circus is missing ›
- Donald Trump is a convicted felon ›
- Ian Bremmer on Trump's guilty verdict ›
- Will foreign policy decide the 2024 US election? ›
Trump in handcuffs.
Trump's guilty verdict is a historic first, but will it matter?
You knew it, I knew it, everybody knew it. But now it’s on the record: Donald Trump is officially a crook.
Last Thursday, after two days of deliberations, a jury of his peers unanimously found the former president and 2024 Republican presumptive nominee guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the hush money criminal case brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.
Bragg charged Trump with cooking the books to hide a $130,000 payoff to porn star Stormy Daniels – with whom he’d allegedly had an affair – from voters during the 2016 election campaign by disguising it as legal fees to his then-lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen.
Falsifying business records is normally a misdemeanor, but Bragg, an elected Democrat in deep-blue Manhattan, had campaigned on putting Trump in cuffs. To upgrade the charges to felonies, he drew on a controversial legal theory to claim that the records were falsified in an attempt to commit or conceal an underlying federal crime of the jury’s choice. Judging by the outcome, the gambit worked – although it also helped further politicize and delegitimize the case and could make the conviction vulnerable to reversal on appeal.
The verdict marks a watershed moment for American democracy. Trump is the first-ever former American president convicted of a crime. He is also the first major-party candidate to run for the White House as a felon. Of course, these are far from the only unprecedented things happening in the US political system. From Trump’s two impeachments and acquittals to chronic Congressional gridlock to recurring House Speaker succession drama to the Jan. 6 insurrection, we’re living through an era of exceptional yet increasingly normalized political dysfunction that is fraying our social fabric and eroding the legitimacy of our democracy. At some point, something’s going to break, and it’s not going to be pretty.
The legal consequences for Trump will be minimal. He will appeal his conviction. This will probably take years to resolve, and it may well succeed given the dubious legal theory used to prosecute him.
But before an appeal can be filed, Judge Juan Merchan is set to decide on sentencing on July 11. While each count carries a maximum of 4 years in prison, even a single day in jail is probably not in the cards for a first-time nonviolent offender like him, with house arrest or small fines more likely punishments. And even if he were sentenced to prison, he would not be remanded until the last of his appeals were exhausted, which would not happen until well after the election.
Notably, the New York trial was by far the weakest and least serious of all the criminal cases Trump faced. The three that remain – the Fulton County election interference case, the federal election interference case, and the federal classified documents case – are orders of magnitude more consequential, but none is expected to start before September if at all this year. Should he win in November, he won’t be able to pardon himself of the New York convictions, but he will be able to quash the two federal indictments and at least postpone the Georgia trial until he’s out of office.
Odds are that the 34 guilty verdicts will be the only legal accountability Trump will see before the election – and perhaps ever.
What about the impact on the election itself? First things first: The conviction won’t affect Trump’s ability to run for or serve as president, even on the off chance that he was put behind bars. Nor will it stop him from voting (for himself), unless he is incarcerated by Election Day. But will it make it less likely that Trump wins in November? Probably, but only just a little.
The reason it might dent Trump’s chances at the margin is that a non-negligible share of independent voters had consistently said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime. And presidential elections in our highly polarized country are increasingly decided by a few tens of thousands of them in a handful of states. Even small losses among this group can end up being pivotal.
That said, there are reasons why this may not end up mattering much.
First, the election is still five months away. Think about all that can happen between now and then. If the first half of the year is anything to go by, I suspect the 34 guilty verdicts are going to feel like a distant memory by the time voters go to the ballot.
Second, the conviction will rally Republicans around Trump and mobilize Democrats to some extent (i.e., partisans are gonna partisan), but the number of undecided voters among whom this particular issue will actually move the needle in November is small. Most Americans are more focused on pocketbook issues, immigration, abortion, and President Joe Biden’s age than on Trump’s legal issues or the threat he poses to US democracy. This is true today and will likely be true in November.
Third, independents who were open to voting for Trump before last Thursday will probably learn to grow comfortable with a criminal conviction the same way they got over the Access Hollywood tape, the Stormy Daniels affair, the Charlottesville rally, and the “Stop the Steal” movement. If these Trump-leaning voters were willing to forgive so many sordid transgressions, there’s little reason to believe a guilty verdict on trumped-up white-collar charges is going to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
Although the guilty verdicts are bad news for the former president, this remains a very close race that Trump is still slightly favored to win against a historically unpopular incumbent. But in a game of inches, any headwinds could be enough to make a difference.
Ian Bremmer on Trump's guilty verdict
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take on another historic day for the US political system.
Donald Trump, former president, running for president, guilty from a jury of his peers on all 34 charges in this New York case. It is an extraordinary day. The United States has never in history had an American president convicted of a felony before. There are, of course, lots of unprecedented things that happen in the US political system, right now. Trump's dual impeachments, both of which led to acquittals, the challenges of the Supreme Court, the speaker of the House, I mean, you name it right now, January 6th, America's doing it. And this is, should not be normalized. And yet, American citizens increasingly come to expect the unexpected from their political system.
This case is, the structurally weakest in the sense it's the least significant crimes that he has been accused of, that he's been indicted for, across the country. We look at, the cases of the mishandling and lying about classified information or, the Georgia efforts to overturn the election or, of course, the January 6th related cases. Those are much more serious in terms of impact on the US political system and the role of Donald Trump as president. But this is the case, that has moved the fastest. And this is the case that has now returned the convictions.
Let's look at the case itself for a moment. The verdict and even the potential jail time that comes from it will have no impact on Trump's ability to run for or to serve as president, should he win. Though it's also true that he cannot pardon himself because they're state charges. They aren't federal charges. So, if he wins, he's still a convicted felon, but he's also president again. And yes, he can still vote. Everyone saying no, he can't vote because Florida says felons can't vote. Yes, but that's if the felony is in Florida. If the felony is someplace else, in New York, and he's not actually in jail, then Florida has a type of reciprocity so that he, that the rules of New York apply, so he can vote for himself. And I'm sure he's going to.
On the legal front, the implications for Trump are pretty small. Prison time is pretty unlikely. Even if they're imposed, they'd be very short. Fines will be small, and Trump is also almost certainly going to appeal this guilty verdict through the New York court system and potentially eventually to the Supreme Court, which is going to take months. that you don't necessarily have given the upcoming election. And during that time, sentencing is likely to be postponed. And the focus of the appeal is going to be on the decision of the prosecution, which was quite controversial and seen to be politicized, to upgrade the charges from misdemeanors to felonies based on the legal theory that the fraud that Trump committed, were attempted violations of a federal law. So, that's the case itself.
What about the election? Does it now make it less likely that Trump wins? Maybe. I might even say probably, but only a little. First point, we are still six months away from this election. That is a very long time. The entire UK election is like six weeks from when they declare it to when it happens. The United States and all of America's collective wisdom, the most expensive, the biggest spectacle, and this is going on and on and on. And I suspect that a lot of what's happening today will feel like history by the time we actually get to November. Now, having said that, independents have consistently said over the past months that they will be less likely to vote for Trump if he is convicted. A lot of them say that, and there are a lot of independents. Fewer people are actually registered as Republicans or Democrats in today's United States. The GOP is very likely to continue to vote for him. In fact, many, I think, will be more strong in their conviction to support Trump because they feel that this is a witch hunt. Now, I do think that there are centrist Republicans that are not comfortable with a lot of who Trump is, but because pretty much every leader of the Republican Party, the governors, the senators, the members of the House, have all lined up behind Trump with loyalty, his coattail effect is probably going to be significant to the voters.
And, you know, Nikki Haley, who continues to poll about like 20%, even though she's already withdrawn, she has come out and said, “I'm supporting Trump. I can't support Biden, I got to support Trump.” Why? Because, she wants to be secretary of state, and her personal ambition matters a lot more to her than whether or not she sees Trump as unfit. And the impact that that's going to have on the election in Trump's favor, I think, is significant. I think she was in a position to make a difference. And she did, for herself. And that is part of the reason why US democracy is in crisis, is because so many political leaders for so long have been making decisions just like that. And that's not just the Republicans. That's the Democrats, too.
Now, I still think Trump can absolutely win again. This is a close race. It's going to be decided in a small number of states. Most Americans have said that what matters to them is not the state of American democracy. What matters to them is abortion, and immigration, and the economy, and inflation. And I suspect that that is still going to be true two months from now, four months from now, six months from now. And that, you know, as much as people were up in arms about the “stop the steal” movement, after January 6th, or as much as they were up in arms about the Access Hollywood tapes when Trump was running against Hillary Clinton, they quickly forgot about it. And I suspect that, you know, this is more significant, but still, ultimately, most Americans are going to continue to vote for what they say has been most important to them. And that's not the state of American democracy.
Again, a big reason why US democracy is in crisis. But perhaps the most important point here is justice needs to be done in the United States. It also needs to be seen to be done. And in the US today, the level of division, the level of mistrust, the level of suspicion among America and citizens means that almost every Trump supporter believes that justice has not been done, that this was a witch hunt, that this was trumped up charges and fake, driven by President Biden himself, to ensure that Trump cannot be president again. That is certainly the belief of a large number of Trump supporters and Trump and his advisers and his campaign, leaders will do everything they can to promote that narrative. And that is incredibly dangerous for a democracy. That is an indication that US democracy is in deep crisis in a way that is much, much more structurally challenging than in any other advanced democracy today. You could not say that about Canada, or Japan, or the United Kingdom, or Germany, or even France, or Italy. It is the United States uniquely among wealthy democracies, that has a political system that large numbers of its people, its own citizens, no longer believe in and don't know what it stands for, don't think it's legitimate.
And that, with two deeply unpopular candidates who stand for radically different visions of the world and the United States is a very, very dangerous place to be. And I think that whoever you're rooting for, whoever you're voting for, the strength of the US political system today is in question. And around the world, those of you that are watching this that aren't Americans, you know, your views of the United States, your willingness to believe in the US and believe in the commitments that the Americans make over time, are being deeply challenged, are being shaken by what you see in the US today, and what you're going to see over the coming months.
I certainly hope that we don't see significant political violence on the back of this, though I think it's certainly possible, and the likelihood of that as the election gets closer is growing. And I certainly hope that the United States is able to run a free and fair election, but it also has to be seen to be free and fair. And there, I don't think that is likely at all, come November. And as an American who considers himself a patriot and believes in my country, I'm deeply concerned and saddened about that. That's not going to make me stop working. It's not going to quiet my voice. It's not going to reduce what I'm saying to all of you out there. But I have to be honest about what I see, and that's where we are.
So, anyway, some thoughts for today. I hope everyone's well, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- The Supreme Court throws Trump a bone ›
- Jane Harman: Trump trial a distraction away from urgent global crises ›
- Trump turns trial into campaign rally ›
- What the Trump trial circus is missing ›
- Trump trial: How would a conviction hurt his reelection bid? ›
- The US is the world's most dysfunctional major democracy - GZERO Media ›
Trump has been found guilty. Will voters care?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
Donald Trump is the first presidential candidate in American history to be convicted of a crime. What does this mean for his campaign? Well honestly, probably not all that much. Voters have shown no indication they care about this trial at all so far, instead focusing on issues like the economy, immigration, senior services, crime, but not really Trump's trials. That could change through the course of the campaign.
And ironically now that Trump is out of the courtroom and free to campaign again, President Biden will be able to draw more attention to the things that voters don't like about Trump, such as efforts to overturn the 2020 elections. This campaign still has a lot of time left to run however, and there's a lot that can go wrong for either candidate. Trump has leads and all the critical polls for now but as he hits the campaign trail throughout the summer, and as Joe Biden continues to try to define him that lead could slip. But probably this guilty verdict will just be added to the long list of unconventional things that Trump has done throughout the years that voters also don't like, and somehow they continue to grow to be comfortable with him - and his lead in the polls is unlikely to slip from where it is today. Stay tuned for more of what we're watching in US politics next week.
Can Trump, aka Teflon Don, still get elected with a guilty verdict?
BREAKING: Donald Trump found guilty on all 34 felony counts.
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this week: And, of course, it's going to be the Trump trial.
Jury deliberations have begun in a Manhattan courtroom over allegations that Trump illegally paid hush money to a porn star he had an affair with.
One of the most sensational and salacious storylines in American presidential campaign history. But what really matters here is if Trump is found guilty or not. Really anything other than a guilty verdict, (like) a mistrial, or the unlikely case of an acquittal, would be very good for President Trump because it would allow him to claim that this whole thing was a witch hunt with these trumped-up charges that were never really true, and that this is all about politics.
But a guilty verdict probably is going to be a weight on him. However, how big of a weight is really difficult to say. Polling tends to ask the question, would you be more likely or less likely to support Trump if he were found guilty? Democrats overwhelmingly likely to say they're less likely. But who are these Democrats who are going to support Trump to begin with? Independent voters, a significant chunk of them do say they would be less likely to support Trump. But do these voters really know themselves? Does a guilt verdict in June of an election year actually translate into more “no votes against Trump” in November of that year? Do people stay home because of it? It's really difficult to say. However, Trump aka Teflon Don has brought down multiple scandals that would bring down any other political candidate. And given the timing and the other issues at stake in this election, even a guilty verdict would be unlikely to stop the momentum that he currently has against Joe Biden.
Biden, for his part, is starting to politicize the trial. He held a rally with actor Robert De Niro in Manhattan earlier this week, getting a lot of blowback, even from allies who were saying that the criminal process here should be considered separate from the political campaign. And that this was not necessarily a great look for the Biden campaign. So the Trump trial is likely going to dominate the next at least couple of weeks of this campaign.