Can Trump, aka Teflon Don, still get elected with a guilty verdict?
May 30, 2024
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US Politics In 60 Seconds
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington
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BREAKING: Donald Trump found guilty on all 34 felony counts.
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this week: And, of course, it's going to be the Trump trial.
Jury deliberations have begun in a Manhattan courtroom over allegations that Trump illegally paid hush money to a porn star he had an affair with.
One of the most sensational and salacious storylines in American presidential campaign history. But what really matters here is if Trump is found guilty or not. Really anything other than a guilty verdict, (like) a mistrial, or the unlikely case of an acquittal, would be very good for President Trump because it would allow him to claim that this whole thing was a witch hunt with these trumped-up charges that were never really true, and that this is all about politics.
But a guilty verdict probably is going to be a weight on him. However, how big of a weight is really difficult to say. Polling tends to ask the question, would you be more likely or less likely to support Trump if he were found guilty? Democrats overwhelmingly likely to say they're less likely. But who are these Democrats who are going to support Trump to begin with? Independent voters, a significant chunk of them do say they would be less likely to support Trump. But do these voters really know themselves? Does a guilt verdict in June of an election year actually translate into more “no votes against Trump” in November of that year? Do people stay home because of it? It's really difficult to say. However, Trump aka Teflon Don has brought down multiple scandals that would bring down any other political candidate. And given the timing and the other issues at stake in this election, even a guilty verdict would be unlikely to stop the momentum that he currently has against Joe Biden.
Biden, for his part, is starting to politicize the trial. He held a rally with actor Robert De Niro in Manhattan earlier this week, getting a lot of blowback, even from allies who were saying that the criminal process here should be considered separate from the political campaign. And that this was not necessarily a great look for the Biden campaign. So the Trump trial is likely going to dominate the next at least couple of weeks of this campaign.
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