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Will Kamala Harris’ momentum last in the race against Trump?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics:Kamala Harris is off to a blazing start since replacing Joe Biden as the Democrats' pick for the presidential race, raking in almost $250 million in just one week. The big question: Can she maintain this momentum in the race against Donald Trump?
Joe Biden drops out of the race last Sunday, unexpectedly, as the oldest candidate ever, instantly making Donald Trump the new oldest nominee in American presidential history. Now he's going to have to run against a Democrat who's 19 years younger than he is, and the sitting Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris. She's off to a scorching hot start raising almost $250 million, a quarter of a billion dollars in a single week since Biden announced he was dropping out, and she's picking up a lot of buzz and excitement online.
But the real question is, is her current momentum about Harris? Or, is it just about someone other than Biden? That's really what the rest of this campaign is going to be about. Harris comes in with some strengths that Biden didn't have, namely the fact that three-quarters of the population doesn't think she's too old to be president, but she probably also has some weaknesses where Biden had unique strengths, such as his strength with working-class white voters in the Midwest. On that front, Harris is just kind of an unknown.
We can't really trust what the polls are telling us just yet, because what you'd expect to see after a big event would be a surge in support from Democrats, who are more eager to respond to polls at the moment, so it might be a few weeks before we actually have an understanding of where this race stands in public opinion polling. Then there's the question of Harris herself who hasn't really done much to distinguish herself as vice president and ran a pretty poor presidential primary campaign in 2020 that led to her dropping out and becoming the vice-presidential pick. So is this election going to be about Harris, the person, versus Donald Trump, who Americans know and either love or hate very well? Or is it going to be about Kamala Harris, the meme, running against Donald Trump?
Right now, she's polling as a generic Democrat would, doing two to four points better than Biden would nationally. We don't really have a lot of granularities on what's happening at the swing states, but it looks like this is starting to be a competitive race, and we have to see how Harris holds up once the American people get a better look at her. This is going to happen through her campaign appearances, which will be tight and scripted, but probably the most important event coming up on the election calendar is going to be the debate, where Harris won't have a chance to answer scripted questions or read off a teleprompter and is going to have to face Donald Trump live.
As for Trump, suddenly, this race that was breaking strongly in his favor is now sort of starting to turn against him because of the fact that Kamala Harris now can position herself as the change candidate, and talking about a break from the past, as Trump as the old former president that Americans maybe want to move on from. So very fluid dynamic in the race. Trump is probably still favored, just because he has more paths to victory through the Electoral College, but this could all change drastically over the coming weeks. Thanks for watching, and stay tuned for what we're watching in US politics next week.
With Biden out, can Kamala Harris defeat Trump?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics: Biden is out of the presidential race, and it looks like Kamala Harris will replace him. The big question: How would she do against Donald Trump?
Joe Biden's out.
An unprecedented development is that the likely nominee for one of the two major parties has dropped out of the race with only a month to go before the Democratic conventions. The big question is who's going to replace him? And the obvious answer is Kamala Harris.
She's already picked up the endorsement of former President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. President Obama put out a statement saying that he would support whoever the nominee is and is looking forward to a convention to work this out, but that's probably just an indication that he wants this to look competitive. Harris herself put out a statement saying she's looking forward to earning the trust of everybody in the Democratic Party. But you also have luminaries like Jim Clyburn who are already endorsing Harris, and you're unlikely to see competitors like California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer appear on the stage anytime soon. So Harris is probably going to replace Biden.
How does she do against Donald Trump?
Well, that's the big wild card in this election, her favorability is basically where Joe Biden's was in the high 30s, which is a bad place to be if you're going to get elected, but Donald Trump isn't that popular himself. Harris also faces the baggage of being the successor to an incumbent running for that incumbent seat. And unpopular incumbents tend not to do a great job passing on their seat to their successor. Harris hasn't really done anything to distinguish herself in four years of running her own presidential campaign or serving as vice president. She's kind of been relegated to a D-list of policy issues that she hasn't done much to effect, and the Democratic Party has a lot of other people who could probably be more competitive if they had time to run a primary process, but they don't. Harris does bring new energy to the campaign and has the ability to unite the Democratic Party behind her. However, Trump just does better on the top issues in this campaign, which are inflation, the economy, and immigration.
Stay tuned for more of what we're watching in US politics during this wild election year. Thanks.
RNC shows how Trump has transformed GOP
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this week: Trump's utter dominance of the GOP at the just-concluded convention.
So the Republican convention just wrapped up and a very different tone and style of the last several conventions. And particularly, you know, you were knocked out in 1992 and woke up today, you probably wouldn't recognize this Republican Party at all.
And that's because of the total dominance of Donald J Trump in the party now, which was really exemplified by his choice of a vice president. JD Vance, very young, senator from Ohio, wasn't an elected official as of two years ago and is likely to be the next vice president of the United States. Contrast this to Mike Pence, Trump's pick in 2016, who was a long-standing conservative but establishment Republican that helped Trump shore up his weaknesses at the time with evangelical voters.
Today, Trump doesn't really have any weaknesses in the Republican Party. He is their leader. He's their most popular person. He just survived an assassination attempt. And you saw that affect all over there of the Republican National Convention this week, particularly when it came to issues like trade and immigration, where the party has taken a significantly tougher line than ever has before and has moved in a significantly more nationalist and populist direction. Contrast this to the George W Bush era, or the era of even the last two speakers, prior to Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, and John Boehner, neither of whom were major presences at this convention. Just to show you how far the Republican Party has moved from its roots, even from the pre-Trump days.
Another unusual thing about the convention was that last night before Trump's speech, it was wrestling day. Hulk Hogan showed up, and Linda McMahon showed up. Dana White, the president of UFC, showed up, the Ultimate Fighting Championship. You don't expect to see these people at political conventions. But what they really reflect is kind of the heart and soul of the Trump campaign. Hulkamania is a throwback to the 1990s. And Dana White represents a demographic that Trump is hoping to make central to his political movement, which is young men. And young white men, young Hispanic men, and young black men are all groups that Trump is doing very well with and probably will be one of the keys to his victories in the fall if he wins.
You wouldn't expect any convention bounce coming out of this. Convention bounces are a little bit of a thing of the past. And Trump was really speaking to his base last night in a very long, rambling, rally-style speech. Not what you normally expect on primetime TV.
Trump's pick for VP: JD Vance
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
President Trump has made his VP selection, JD Vance, Senator from Ohio, a 39-year-old who rose to prominence as the author of a book explaining the troubles of the white working class who voted for Trump in 2016, to a much broader population of Americans who were at the time, struggling to understand how Trump pulled off his surprising victory. Vance then reinvented himself as an investor and then a prominent Trump critic, warning about Trump's dangers to America, and saying that he is America's Hitler. And then went on to reinvent himself yet again as a populist champion of the working class, running for Senate in the seat he ended up winning.
Vance is obviously extremely smart. He's a Yale law graduate, and what he's going to bring to the Trump campaign is to complement the populist energy that President Trump brings. Vance has been an outspoken critic of aid to Ukraine, he has been somebody who's questioned how much the Republican Party has done over the years for the US corporate community, meaning he's going to bring probably an anti-trade and even potentially a tax-hiking voice into the White House. And he's going to instantly become a target for the campaign of President Joe Biden, who will happily pull out all of Vance's old quotes criticizing Donald Trump, even though Vance now credibly says he's been converted to Trumpism.
They're also going to try to attempt to tie Vance to Project 2025, which is a white paper introduced by the Heritage Foundation that introduces all of Trump's plans that he plans to do as president, many of which will be very closely aligned with the persona that J.D. Vance dug out in the Senate. Now, I should also say that persona has been bipartisan at times, as Vance has teamed up with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren on several populist causes, including cracking down on big banks. So, Vance is probably one of the more interesting people in American politics today. He's young enough to be a credible presidential candidate in four years at the end of a second Trump term, and he's going to be a lightning rod for controversy.
Thanks for watching and stay tuned for more on the Republican National Convention this week.
Will the Trump attack shift GOP approach at the RNC?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this week: The Republican National Convention after an assassination attempt on Donald Trump.
Wild weekend with the first assassination attempt in over 40 years against President Donald Trump, former President Donald Trump, this weekend that barely missed lodging a bullet in the back of his brain by several inches. That could have been a history-altering shot if it hadn't missed. And Trump was lucky to get out alive. But he also was able to rally his supporters and the base of the Republican Party behind him. And we're seeing that online this weekend, which is great timing for President Trump as he begins the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Trump has already said that the assassination attempt is changing his approach towards the convention and the campaign, offering up that he's going to take a more moderate and unifying tone, as opposed to one that was attacking current President Joe Biden. Biden gave an Oval Office address last night to also ask for unity in American politics, which is something that has been lacking in recent years as the two parties have increasingly defined themselves in opposition to one another. Prolonged unity is probably too much to ask for both of these guys. There is too much at stake for both parties. Both bases believe that this election is an existential risk to their way of life, and they are willing to fight it out until the very, very end.
But you still might get a very different tone at the RNC than you would have otherwise, as Republicans attempt to capitalize on the momentum from Trump's assassination attempt. No big policy announcements coming this week; the Biden campaign is going to try to get his footing underneath them, once again, as he tries to recover from the terrible debate performance he had two weeks ago. The conventions typically give a small but fading bounce to the candidate that's holding them, and I wouldn't really expect anything different this time around, even as Donald Trump looks like he's starting to open up a reasonable lead in what still looks like a fairly close race.
Thanks for watching, and stay tuned for more this week on the RNC.
Why replacing Biden would be a challenge
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this week. The big question is, will the Democrats replace Joe Biden after a disastrous debate performance?
Biden was not sharp in Thursday night's debate, seeming every bit of his 81-year-old. Slurring his speech at times, rambling, making confusing comments about what he was going to do to Medicare. And Donald Trump was able to exploit that, having being high energy, his normal blustery self. Biden was unable to push back against any of the outright lies that Trump was telling and was unable to land any punches, even on Biden's best issues, which include Donald Trump's personal character. So now there's a panic setting in among Democrats, and the question is, can they replace Biden and how would they do so?
It's going to be very tough to push aside the sitting president of the United States and leader of the Democratic Party. Probably what has to happen is that Biden himself has to make the choice that he's too old and can't do the job and makes a decision sometime in the next 3 or 4 weeks that he is going to step aside as the presidential candidate the way Lyndon Johnson did in the 60s to help the Democrats avoid a contested convention. In the wake of that, he probably would have to endorse a successor.
The most likely successor is Vice President Kamala Harris, who's the first African-American and first female vice president in US history. But she's not much more popular than Biden is, which leaves him with a number of untested options of sitting governors, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, who did not perform that well in a debate against Ron DeSantis late last year and has the baggage of being a very liberal governor of the most liberal state. And Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan, who has low name recognition among the public but is considered a moderate Democrat in a swing state who can appeal to moderate voters. There's probably other governors that would be in contention, like Governor Pritzker from Chicago, Jared Polis from Colorado, Andy Beshear from Kentucky.
But they also face the challenge of not being very nationally known, not having great fundraising networks, and never having done the grueling challenge of running for president of the United States. When you are under scrutiny 24 hours a day, every aspect of your background is going to be looked into. You've got to be a good retail politician, a good public speaker, and have the ability to consolidate Democrats and tap into the massive fundraising networks that are necessary to run as the president.
So not a lot of great options for Democrats right now. Former President Donald Trump remains ahead in most swing state polls and suggesting he probably should be considered the frontrunner in the race for now. But this question of the pressure that's going to be on Biden over the next several weeks is not going to go away until Biden has a very strong public appearance that makes people less worried about his age. Lots of baggage going into the August conventions for Biden and a real headwind for his campaign.
Trump's VP pick: The short list
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this month. Who Trump picks as his VP.
The big story in US politics this month is going to be the debates which are going to be one of the key moments of the campaign, given the enormous downside risk they present for President Biden due to his age. But the other big event of the summer, other than the conventions, is going to be who Trump picks for his vice presidential candidate. And there's been a number of names floated by the campaign, some more conventional than others. And they each have their own set of strengths.
Some of the more surprising names would be JD Vance, who Trump's family is allegedly pushing for him to pick. Vance is a senator from Ohio and one of the leading lights in the populous Republican movement. Never mind his Yale and venture capital background, he is somebody that claims he's out there fighting for the working class, which could help Trump.
Tim Scott, an African-American senator from South Carolina would help bring diversity to the ticket. Perhaps match up well against Kamala Harris in the debates, and is a pretty telegenic defender of Trump who has been outspoken in his praise for the former president since he was defeated in the primary.
Another potential candidate is Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, a smaller state. But he's a rich man, a successful business guy who's been a very effective Trump surrogate. And he's emerged as a potential pick in the last few months.
You also have a handful of other senators, like Marco Rubio from Florida, who would put a Hispanic on the ticket, or Tom Cotton, who's been a harsh Trump critic in the past, but would bring a lot of national security credibility to President Trump. There's a couple of House members that are on the short list, unclear if they have the experience or TV presence to be what Trump is looking for.
Typically candidates will choose a vice president based on some political liability that they think they have, whether it's the balance of the ticket in terms of age or gender or racial identity or maybe it's a regional thing. Mike Pence was chosen because he was strong with evangelical voters and Trump was not. It isn't exactly clear what Trump's going for with his VP pick. Probably it's somebody who he thinks is loyal to him, somebody that can defend him well on TV, and probably someone that's not going to show him up too much as an actual vice president. Really any one of the names on this list could achieve those goals, now but what they probably won't do is give Trump a big boost in this campaign, which is going to be about the two headliners, Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Will Biden's immigration order help border control...and his campaign?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this week? It’s immigration.
This is a big political liability for President Biden. It shows up as one of the top 2 or 3 issues, most of the big polls. And Donald Trump has a big advantage over him right now if you believed polls. So what Biden did this week is announced an emergency order that would restrict the number of people who would come to the United States seeking asylum in cases where border crossings breach over 2500 a day. This has been a pretty common occurrence, with border crossings at that level for the last several years. Last year there were over 3 million people who entered the country from abroad, both legally and illegally.
And it’s the illegal border crossings that's gotten Biden really in the most political trouble and has been at the heart of President Trump's political campaign since he first came down the golden escalator in 2015. So the big question is, does this hold and will it make any difference? And, you know, this is likely to be challenged in court by immigration advocates who want the number of asylum seekers to stay high so that people can get refuge in the United States.
But if the courts do uphold this, it should make a significant difference in the number of people crossing the border. The question is, does it come in time to help Joe Biden make a case that he's actually doing something about immigration in a way the American people want to see? Interestingly, this action is very similar to a deal that the Democrats struck with Republicans in the Senate earlier in the year, which was, of course, struck down when President Trump said he didn't really want to do anything to help Biden's reelection campaign.
So immigration is going to be an ongoing theme with this campaign. Biden took big action this week, and the numbers should help us see whether or not this makes any difference.
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