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Warnock's Georgia Victory: Dems Control Every Senate Committee | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Warnock's Georgia victory: Dems control every Senate Committee

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

What does the Democratic win in the Georgia Senate race mean?

There are two major implications from Senator Raphael Warnock's victory last night in the Georgia Senate runoff. The first is that it ends the longest running tied Senate in American history and gives Democrats 51 seats and outright control of Senate committees that can be used to conduct oversight. This probably means more uncomfortable hearings for titans of industry next year and while the House will focus their oversight activities on the Biden administration, the Senate is going to be calling in bank CEOs and representatives of concentrated industries to talk about corporate profits and inflation.

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Dems & GOP Both Thankful for Midterm Surprises | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

US Dems and GOP can be thankful this Thanksgiving

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics in a Thanksgiving edition.


What are Republicans and Democrats thankful for this holiday season?

Democrats are thankful for three Republicans named Mehmet Oz, Don Bolduc and Blake Masters, who lost three winnable Senate seats in Arizona, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, allowing Democrats to keep their majority. Democrats keep the majority; it means they can continue to confirm judges and confirm any executive branch nominees that President Biden puts forward should there be any openings. These were clearly winnable seats for the Republicans in this cycle that should have strongly favored them, but we saw Trump aligned nominees like these three give up winnable seats.

Republicans are thankful that there are alternatives emerging to President Donald Trump in the Republican primary in 2024. President Trump has declared his intention to run. However, three Republican governors, Brian Kemp, Ron DeSantis, and Greg Abbott had very strong showings in their reelection cycles this year and that's going to embolden challengers to Trump in the primary, and this could be a very competitive primary, giving them some alternatives to Trump, given that there's a growing number of Republicans who think he can't win a general election. Now, of course, the challenge will be, can these guys win if Trump decides that he's not going to support them should he lose the primary? But that's a question for another day.

Now, Republicans and Democrats are thankful that they're not going to be spending their holiday seasons relitigating false claims of election fraud the way they did in 2020. President Trump in 2020 claimed that the election was rigged and stolen from him. He refused to concede, and that really dominated the news cycle from Thanksgiving all the way through the January six riots, which were a terrible day for most lawmakers that were present. That's not going to happen this cycle. No one's really questioning the results of these elections. There were some questions about some voting machines malfunctioning in Arizona, but for the most part, this is a pretty clean election, and everyone understands that the legitimate ballots that were cast led to a legitimate outcome, a good day for American democracy. It's something that we should all be thankful for.

Will Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Sink Republicans? | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Will Trump’s 2024 candidacy sink Republicans?

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:

Is the Republican Party still Trump's party to lead after the midterm elections?

The biggest news this week, other than Taylor Swift tickets going on presale, is the announcement by former President Donald Trump that he is going to run for president a third time. Trump's role with Republicans is a huge source of discord within the party right now. He remains one of, if not the most popular Republicans, but he is not delivering the electoral results the way he once did. Trump-aligned candidates had some of the worst nights in the midterm elections, in some cases trailing other Republicans from the same state by 20 points or more.

This is a huge dilemma for Republicans who can't win with him, but they also probably can't win without him, as there is a hard core of Trump-supporting voters within the GOP base who helped Trump candidates win their primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. If Trump does win the primary, there are a lot of people in both parties who think he is so toxic, it will give the election to the Democrats in 2024. Of course, depending on the state of the economy. But if he does not win the primary, there are serious questions as to how conciliatory he's willing to be, and if he would help the eventual Republican candidate or just take his base and go home.

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Republicans Underperformed, Democrats Had A Good Night | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

GOP underperforms and Dems surprise in US midterms

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on the US midterm elections.

So last night the US had their midterm elections, and the theme of the night is that Republicans underperformed, given the fundamentals of the race. Democrats had a pretty good night overall with Senate candidates outperforming their polling in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. And as of today, the results in both the Senate and the House are probably too close to call. The environment generally favors Republicans overall, and so they're likely to pick up a majority in the House, but that majority is going to be much smaller than most pundits were expecting as of yesterday before votes started to count.

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How a GOP Congress Would Change US Foreign Policy | GZERO World

US foreign policy and consequences of midterm elections

Republicans have a good chance of winning back the House after the US midterm elections. How might that impact America's foreign policy?

First, the GOP will start to question open-ended aid to Ukraine as inflation hits Americans hard, says Jon Lieber on GZERO World.

Second, Republicans will be more chummy than President Joe Biden toward Saudi Arabia and its de-facto leader, Crown Prince MBS. A lot of it has to do with gas prices.

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US Voters Think GOP Can Fix Economy, But Can They? Not Likely | US Politics in :60 | GZERO Media

US voters think GOP can fix the economy, but can they? Not likely

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

What are the top issues for voters ahead of the 2022 midterm elections?

30 years since James Carville quipped that "it's the economy, stupid", which became the winning mantra for Bill Clinton's political campaign, it looks like the economy is once again the primary concern of US voters. There is way more public opinion polling than there was in 1992, and all of it shows that voters have one issue at the top of their mind, inflation. 49% of registered voters told Gallup that the economy is extremely important to their vote, the highest level during a midterm election since the middle of the financial crisis in 2010 when it hit 63%. Other polls show a similar trend with the economy dominating the pack among a diverse range of issues including abortion, crime, gun policy, and immigration.

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Will the 2022 Midterms Affect US Support For Ukraine? | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Will the 2022 midterms affect US support for Ukraine?

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

How is the US policy towards Ukraine shifting?

With Republicans well positioned to take control of the House of Representatives next year, the next likely Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, recently warned that the US would no longer give a "blank check" to Ukraine when Republicans were in charge. This has lots of folks worried about a softening commitment to financing the Ukrainian defense against the Russian invasion.

But should they be? The United States has committed over $60 billion in aid so far to fund the military effort, humanitarian aid, and to directly finance the Ukrainian government. That is a lot of money that passed very quickly with little debate in the US, though it is broadly in line with US public opinion. A poll from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that 80% of Americans continue to support US economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia.

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Reading the US Midterm Election Tea Leaves | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Reading the US midterm election tea leaves

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

What is polling telling us three weeks before the midterm elections?

Public opinion polling is taking election watchers on quite an exciting ride this year, from showing Republicans with a massive advantage early in the year, to demonstrating a surge and support for Democrats over the summer. Most election watchers think that surge is fading now in the final weeks before the election. But today, we wanted to focus on a few numbers that matter for forecasting the election results.

But first is the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they would prefer to vote for in an upcoming election. If you have to look at one indicator to make a forecast about congressional elections in the US, this is it. Particularly in the House of Representatives. This indicator has shown Republicans with an unusual advantage for most of this year, which they lost over the summer as abortion climbed in importance for voters. While Democrats lead in this indicator right now by about half a percentage point, because of the way districts are drawn, they would need to have a several-point lead in order to be thought of as favorites in taking the House. So this is telling us that the general environment is good for Republicans at the moment.

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