<p>So, going forward Trump is clearly going to be very influential with a large base of the Republican party. And this MAGA group, concentrated largely in rural areas, can still help Republicans win the House of Representatives, and they may take a majority in the next election cycle in 2022, but it's going to be a growing problem at the statewide level. And in '22, you've got either incumbent Republicans or open seats in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina. And if those states vote anything like we saw in Georgia earlier this week, then it's clear that embracing Trump and MAGA is not enough to win statewide in those places. Now, Republicans won't lose all of those seats, but if Trump does decide to play in the primaries, it could cost them electorally going forward in the Senate, even as they take back the House. In 2024, for the presidential election, that's really a jump ball election. And the effects of the Trump base may fade by then. But if he's still an influential figure in the party, you're going to see members jockeying for the favor of that base, which moves the party in an increasingly populist and conservative direction.</p><span></span><p>So, for the next two weeks, I think physical security is going to be an incredibly important theme here in Washington, D.C. If I'm working in the Capitol complex right now, I'd be really worried about the ability of the Capitol Police to ensure the safety of the inauguration, which was already expected to be a physically distant inauguration because of the coronavirus. So, I think you're going to see an increasingly militarized presence here in D.C. Very, very few people allowed to even gather near the mall over the next two weeks. And the real wild card is President Trump. Does he decide to spend the next two weeks kind of beginning his retirement Mar-a-Lago? Or does the theater of getting thrown out of the White House on January 20th have too much of an appeal to his base who believes that the election was stolen from him? And you can't rule anything out right now, things that are beyond the pale or would have been previously imaginable sure seem like they're on the table. So, it'll be an eventful period with a lot of headline risk, but ultimately the policy impacts, I think of this are pretty limited. Democrats now have unified government, which means that there'll be able to accomplish a lot of on the fiscal front next year, increased spending on healthcare, energy policy, and stimulus, some of which will be paid for by tax increases. And the events of this week at the Capitol Building don't fundamentally impact that. And I also wouldn't expect to see a lot of new policy changes over the last two weeks of the Trump administration, as everybody just kind of prepares to move on. </p>
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