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Why Biden’s exit gives Democrats a fighting chance
I have little doubt that President Joe Biden’s belated but essential decision to bow out of the 2024 presidential election on Sunday will go down in history as a patriotic act.
Following his infamous debate performance on June 27, an overwhelming majority of Americans – including two-thirds of Democrats – came to the conclusion that the president was no longer physically and mentally fit to serve another four-year term in office. As things stood last Saturday, Donald Trump – fresh off a failed assassination attempt and a triumphant Republican convention – looked set to retake the White House and likely control both houses of Congress, with little an ailing Biden could do to turn things around.
By finally agreeing to step down when his term ends in January, Biden jolted the race 100 days out and gave his party a fighting chance to protect the country – and the world – from what he sees as the existential threat of an unrestrained Trump. Only he had the power to do that, and when push came to shove (and there was plenty of shoving), he met the moment. It was a fitting capstone to a lifetime of public service.
This is what leadership looks like. Contrary to what many are claiming, there was nothing inevitable about Biden’s decision to withdraw. Yes, he was under immense pressure from his party and the media to step down. Yes, all evidence pointed toward near-certain disaster in November if he stayed on. Yes, his legacy was on the line. And yet … he still had a choice. His exit was not preordained. No one forced his hand – in fact, no one could force his hand. It was entirely up to Joe Biden, and Joe Biden alone, to do the right thing. This couldn’t have been easy – if it was, everyone would do it. And we know for a fact that not everyone would’ve made the same choice – least of all Trump, a man who is constitutionally incapable of putting party and country above himself.
Did Biden come to his decision reluctantly, and only after weeks spent in anger and denial? No doubt. It’s hard enough for anyone to voluntarily give up power, but it’s even harder for a person with Biden’s life history who’s also coming to terms with his own mortality. Should he have withdrawn much sooner? Absolutely – I never thought he should have run for reelection in the first place, and I said so publicly many times. Will this delay end up costing Democrats the election? It’s possible, though we may never know.
But we shouldn’t forget the “better” in “better late than never.” What matters most is that he finally got there. Biden could’ve held on until the bitter end, consequences be damned. Instead, he chose to put America first. It was a decision worthy of a leader. Not a winner, but a leader. He deserves credit for it – as does the Democratic Party, which has shown itself to be a much healthier and more functional institution than anyone thought. Can anyone seriously imagine today’s GOP launching a coordinated pressure campaign to depose Trump, even though so many Republicans privately criticize him as unfit and believe him to be an electoral drag?
It gives me a little hope in a country where politicians don’t often do the right thing, and where political parties all too easily bend to the will of their leaders even when it becomes clear they serve only themselves.
Harris or bust. Shortly after announcing his withdrawal, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the nomination. The entire Democratic establishment – with the notable exception of Barack Obama – quickly followed suit and rallied behind her. Within 24 hours, Harris had been endorsed by every viable potential challenger as well as an overwhelming majority of Democratic governors, members of Congress, and state party chairs. By Monday evening, her campaign had raised $150 million from major donors and $81 million from small donors, and she had secured more than enough pledged delegates to become the party’s presumptive nominee.
Although an ostensibly competitive and democratically legitimate nomination process would have ultimately benefitted Democrats by ensuring the winner had what it takes to take on Trump and appeal to a broad swath of voters, the speed with which the party coalesced around Harris ensures next month’s convention in Chicago will be little more than a coronation ceremony. With only 54 delegates currently undecided and a minimum of 300 needed for any would-be nominee to compete, it’s impossible to imagine a challenger not named Marianne Williamson or Dean Phillips emerging.
And that’s … not a disaster for the Democrats. Harris may not have been the best possible candidate Democrats could’ve put forward a year (or four) ago, but she was the most viable candidate to replace Biden, unite the party, and avoid a down-ballot bloodbath at this late stage.
What can be, unburdened by what has been? The question now is not whether there was a better Democratic candidate than Harris, but whether Harris can beat Trump. And on that front, the jury is still out. We simply don’t have enough recent polling data on this matchup yet to get a decent idea of where things stand today.
Here’s what we do know: This is an incredibly tough environment for an incumbent’s successor, with a majority of voters telling pollsters they are unhappy with the state of the country. And Harris is no Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, or Ronald Reagan – a generational talent with the charisma and vision to work political miracles. So she starts as the underdog accordingly. But off the bat, she has dramatically better odds than Biden because she solves the president’s biggest electability challenge: his age. And she has more upside than Trump, who remains a historically unpopular candidate with a hard ceiling of 45% of national support. By contrast, nearly 10% of Americans don’t even have an opinion of her yet, so she has room to define herself.
Can Harris break above Trump’s ceiling? She’s neither a proven national candidate nor a distinguished campaigner, having fizzled out before reaching the Iowa caucus during the 2020 presidential primaries. She has plenty of weaknesses for Republicans to exploit, including unpopular Biden administration policies (notably on the border) for which voters may blame her. And there’s a chance she could lose more older, white, and moderate working-class voters relative to Biden than she picks up young, nonwhite, and progressive ones.
But at 59, Harris is able to string together full sentences, give cogent stump speeches, campaign vigorously, and effectively deliver the abortion and democracy messages that worked well for Democrats in 2022. She can also play offense on Trump’s age – he’s 78 – and mental fitness, now an exclusively Republican liability that 50% of all voters found disqualifying in the former president nary a week ago.
How this will all net out in November, no one knows yet. Think about all that’s happened in the last two weeks, and imagine all that could change in the next 100 days. That’s an eternity in US politics – certainly longer than entire general election campaigns normally take in most other democracies.
All we can say for sure is Biden has given the Democrats a fighting chance and made the election both more competitive and more uncertain than it was a week ago.
President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a NATO event to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the alliance, in Washington, on July 9, 2024.
Biden and his allies dig in as he delivers forceful NATO speech
President Joe Biden has made clear he has no plans to exit the presidential race against Donald Trump. Democratic lawmakers and fundraisers who want him to step aside for Vice President Kamala Harris or someone else now know they’ll have to give in or push Biden much harder.
Some prominent Democrats have signaled their support for Biden this week. House Minority LeaderHakeem Jeffriesof New York told reporters on Monday that “I support Joe Biden and the Democratic ticket.” Prominent progressives in the House, likeAlexandra Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, have also offered continuing public support for Biden. Sen.John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, a key Biden ally, urged Biden doubters “to get a spine or grow a set.”
But as the president prepared to host a historic NATO summit, Jeffries convened a closed-door meeting with other Democratic lawmakers, some of whom fear Biden’s weakness will sink their own reelection bids, to air differences. Senate Dems used their weekly lunch on Tuesday to discuss Biden’s candidacy.
No clear verdict has yet emerged from either meeting. Asked whether Democrats were on the same page on Biden’s future, Rep. Steve Cohen of Tennessee warned, “We’re not even in the same book.”
Biden gave a rousing speech at the NATO summit on Tuesday night, touting the alliance's strength and focusing heavily on the war in Ukraine — announcing that the US and its partners will provide air defense systems to Kyiv. Unlike in the debate, the president was forceful and didn't repeatedly struggle to string sentences together, though he was reading from a teleprompter.
We'll be watching to see if Biden's performance at the NATO summit will be enough to prove the naysayers wrong. Meanwhile, Michael Bennet of Colorado on Tuesday became the first Democratic senator to publicly state that Biden can't beat Trump in November, which is indicative of the uphill battle the president faces in this regard.
US President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, United States, June 28, 2024.
Biden fights for survival
President Joe Biden is doing his best to discourage expectations he will leave the presidential race. On Monday, he made a surprise appearance (via phone) on TV talk show “Morning Joe.” “I’m getting so frustrated by the elites … the elites in the party who … they know so much more,” Biden complained. “Any of these guys don’t think I should, run against me: Go ahead, challenge me at the convention.”
His reasoning is simple: Voters have his back. “The voters of the Democratic Party have voted. They have chosen me to be the nominee of the party. Do we now just say this process didn’t matter?”
He also signaled his intentions in aletter to Democrats in Congress dated Monday. “I am firmly committed to staying this race, to running this race until the end, and to beating Donald Trump.
For now, Biden is making clear he won’t bow out without a fight, but thepolling isn’t moving in his favor, and anxiety appears to be growing among some Democratic lawmakers and big donors that he has no clear strategy to reverse his slide.
The next few days are shaping up as a war of wills between the president and a growing number of power brokers within his party.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S., June 28, 2024.
Can the Dems replace Biden? And if so, with whom?
Joe Biden had a rough time in Thursday’s presidential debate, leaving many wondering whether Democrats can replace the 81-year-old incumbent with another candidate to fight Donald Trump. While purely theoretical – party insiders are rallying behind Biden, at least in public, and the president says he intends to fight on – let's look at how it could happen, and who might take Biden’s place.
First, Biden would need to decide to withdraw himself. Right now, the people with enough influence to convince him to do that appear to be either his wife, his sister, or potentially former President Barack Obama.
If Biden stands down, the Democrats would be cast into a brokered convention, or a free-for-all scenario at the Aug. 19 convention in Chicago, where individual candidates who throw their hat in the ring would have to campaign to try to win a majority of the 3,900 delegates Biden won during the convention. There are also 700 superdelegates, or party insiders, who can vote for whoever they’d like, and they would likely play an outsized role in picking the next candidate. The party would then have only three months to unite behind and campaign for the new candidate before the November election.
If Biden were to step aside, he may name a potential successor, which raises the question: Who could take Biden’s place?
Vice President Kamala Harris is the most likely choice, given that Biden began his first term hinting he could be a one-term president who would usher the first Black female president into office after him. But Harris has been widely criticized for not carving out a strong enough role in the Biden administration, and she has poor approval ratings, suggesting she would be unlikely to improve the party’s chances of beating Trump.
If Biden chooses to throw the baby out with the bathwater and name an entirely new successor, California Gov. Gavin Newsom could be a contender. During Trump’s presidency, Newsom declared California the leader of the “resistance” to his administration, and his liberal views on gun control, LGBT+ issues, and abortion rights could win over the party’s progressive flank. But, for now, Newsom appears to be building his profile for a 2028 run.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, meanwhile, was on the shortlist for Biden’s VP pick in 2020, and was recently profiled in the New York Times saying that the US needs a Gen X president – but in 2028. The strong showing in the midterms for the Democratic party was in part attributed to her governorship, and she has been a vocal proponent of repealing abortion bans, backing universal preschool, and strengthening gun laws.
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire son of the Pritzker family, owners of the Hyatt Hotel Corporation, would be one of the wealthiest of the possible picks, giving him the needed fundraising edge to conduct an aggressive three-month-long campaign. He can also flourish his credentials of having codified the right to abortion in Illinois, declaring it a “sanctuary state” for women seeking treatment.
Notably, all of Biden’s most likely replacements are under age 60.
Democratic governors from traditionally Republican states, such as Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Roy Cooper of North Carolina, are longer shots. As are Transportation Sec. Pete Buttigieg, Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo, and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown – because, unlike Pritzker, Whitmer, and Newsom, they have not been able to cultivate a national presence in recent months while continuing to support Biden.
Fear of losing a potential endorsement from Biden later means none of these candidates is likely to throw their hat in the ring unless the president decides to step down, a decision that is likely to be made behind tightly closed doors.
“No one who wants Biden's endorsement is going to undermine him publicly, says Eurasia Group’s US director Jon Lieber.Supporters with a placard 'April 10 is the Yoon Suk Yeol government, Judgment Day.' attend the Democratic Party of Korea's general election campaign rally at Yongsan Station Square in Seoul, South Korea, April 9, 2024.
South Korean opposition likely to clean up in key elections
South Koreans went to the polls today for key legislative elections amid a bitterly polarized environment and a sluggish economy, with early exit polls showing a likely landslide for the opposition Democratic Party. President Yoon Suk Yeol has been stymied by DP control of the unicameral legislature throughout the first two years of his presidency, and his People Power Party was facing daunting odds heading into today.
Cost of living is top of mind. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung turned the humble green onions that feature in so many Korean dishes into a political weapon after Yoon made remarks on their price that were perceived as being out of touch. Meanwhile, Yoon’s wife, Kim Keon-hee, has been at the center of a luxury gift scandal, which has hardly helped with perceptions of aloofness.
That said, Lee faces graft allegations of his own and is no less of a controversial figure. In fact, he was lucky to survive an attempted assassination in January, when he was stabbed in the neck at a campaign rally. Political violence is not unheard of in South Korea, but the incident underlines the depth of the country’s political divisions.
“Because of the political polarization, South Koreans end up deciding elections based on things like whether the first lady received a $2,000 handbag and didn't report it,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Jeremy Chan. “It speaks to the underlying dynamic in South Korea, where folks are deciding on the trivial stuff because the political parties can't deal with the big issues.”
And there are BIG issues on South Korea’s plate: The country is getting old and having very few babies, economic growth is weak and unlikely to improve, and, of course, North Korea’s nuclear weapons threaten total annihilation.
Chan expects Yoon to continue focusing on foreign policy if exit polls hold true, including “doubling down on the rapprochement with Japan, broadening relations with Europe, with ASEAN, and with the United States, while moving further away from China and North Korea, because that's where he can exert influence without the National Assembly.”
Official results are expected early Thursday.
Mayorkas impeachment: Reps. Lofgren & Spartz on House vote on DHS secretary
The US House of Representatives is voting on a Republican-led resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over his handling of the immigration crisis on the southern border. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) and Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), who both sit on the House Immigration subcommittee, moments before the vote took place for their thoughts on the first impeachment of a cabinet secretary in modern history.
“[The impeachment] has nothing to do with meeting the constitutional standards,” Lofgren, former chair of the Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement, tells Bremmer, “It’s a complete waste of time.”
House Democrats say the vote is unconstitutional and politically motivated, but the GOP, which has a razor-thin three-vote majority in the House, accuse Mayorkas of a “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law” and beaching public trust.
“I always believe that ultimate responsibility lays [with] the top executive,” GOP Rep. and Ukrainian American Spartz argues, “We need to send the message that can’t allow executives not to do their duty to the public.”
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television beginning this Saturday, February 10. Check local listings.
United States Senator Ron Johnson (Republican of Wisconsin)
Will Democrats and Republicans head for the border?
But there is now more talk in Washington of a legislative compromise that Dems would accept and Republicans would cheer in the form of policies that make it tougher for asylum-seekers to enter the US.
Why might the Dems give way? They want more money from Republicans to help Ukraine repel Russia, and concessions on border policy might help. Dems also worry that another border crisis will undermine their 2024 election chances by boosting Republican turnout and diverting attention from other issues – like abortion rights – where Democrats hold a stronger political hand.
What’s the Republican calculation? Winning Dem concessions to tighten the border is a political victory, but an election-year border crisis on Biden’s watch might be more valuable.
We’ll be watching to see how heavyweights in each party play their respective political hands.
Republican candidates line the Miami stage for Wednesday's GOP debate.
What this week’s vote and GOP debate mean for 2024
In a world obsessed with reading polls like prophecies, many are looking at Tuesday’s election results for evidence of where Americans really stand.
Despite Joe Biden’s lagging popularity, Democrats scored key victories on Election Day. They maintained control of the governorship in predominantly red Kentucky, made an impressive showing in Mississippi, and enshrined a constitutional right to abortion in Ohio. The abortion issue also helped Dems flip the House of Delegates and maintain control of the State Senate in Virginia.
So was Tuesday a harbinger of 2024?
Not if the five Republicans who took to the debate stage in Florida last night – former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott – have any say. With Donald Trump, who is 48 points ahead of second place DeSantis, refusing to take part, the debates are more of a pep rally for the Republican base than a competition at this point. But they reveal what the GOP thinks are winning and losing issues for the party.
Support for Israel was the biggest topic of debate, with candidates competing to display more support for American Jews domestically and Israel’s military abroad. National security followed close behind, and there was plenty of squabbling over who would be toughest on China. Meanwhile, the abortion issue got buried – it didn’t get mentioned until an hour and a half in.
But beyond the issues, Tuesday’s election results highlighted emerging threats to the GOP …
The power of the moderate Democrat: With the Republican Party reeling from the PR nightmare of taking three weeks to appoint a House speaker and the hard-right’s growing influence, many moderate Republicans and traditional conservatives are showing more of a willingness to shop around on the ballot.
Incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear’s win in Kentucky’s gubernatorial race and Democrat Brandon Presley’s narrow loss in his bid for the governor’s mansion in Mississippi are testaments to the power of the moderate Dem in suburbs, swing states, and even predominantly red ones like the Magnolia State, where Presley earned 47% of the vote.
Both candidates are being lauded as emerging political leaders because they can build coalitions, a strategy Democratic candidates running in inhospitable districts – and national elections – should heed. Beshear is one of the most popular governors in the country, despite running a state that voted for Trump by 26 points. His campaign leaned into the abortion issue and Medicaid access, rejected partisanship, and focused on jobs and the economy, gaining him cross-party appeal.
Abortion could help Biden’s popularity problem: We have seen what happened in Ohio before, and we're not talking about last August when Issue 1 – which concerned adding the right to abortion to the constitution – doubled turnout. Back in 2004, former President George W. Bush looked weak in the polls, so the GOP proposed constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage in 11 key states, increasing socially conservative turnout in tight races among voters who might have otherwise stayed home.
Now, Democrats are taking a leaf from Bush’s playbook. At least 11 states are on track to have abortion-related measures on their ballots in 2024, including swing states like Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The election will almost certainly be close, and getting abortion on the ballot could overcome Biden’s lukewarm popularity and get Democratic and moderate voters to the polls in the states where he needs them the most.
In Ohio, 18 counties that voted for Trump in 2020 voted in favor of Issue 1. The same goes for 67 other Trump-won counties in the six states where abortion has been on the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
In previous debates, only former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley recognized that abortion restriction was a liability for the GOP. But following Tuesday’s election, DeSantis softened his stance, while Haley continued calling for compromise, and Vivek Ramaswamy said “male responsibility” and paternity tests were the answer.
The moral of the story: Even with Biden’s approval rating in the tank, this week's election showed how making a few key counties a little less red can be decisive – a strategy Democrats will no doubt be hoping to repeat in November 2024. Meanwhile, Republican candidates will prepare for the next debate on Dec. 6 in the hopes of wooing voters ahead of the first primary in Iowa on Jan. 15.