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Have Republicans Ruined Their Chances Of Taking the Senate? | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Have Republicans ruined their chances of taking the Senate?

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

Have Republicans ruined their chances of taking the Senate?

2022 started off looking like a very strong year for Republicans who are trying to retake the House and Senate. With inflation top of mind for voters and several Republican candidates in 2021 riding the backlash against COVID lockdowns and teachers' unions, Republicans had solid leads in congressional polling and the winds of history at their back. The president's party typically loses about 30 House seats in a normal midterm elections, and Democrats only had five to give away before they lost their majority. And in an evenly divided Senate, Republicans saw at least four easy pickup opportunities in swing states that Democrats barely won in previous cycles.

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Biden vs. MAGA Republicans

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And as you can see from the getup, I am back in New York City. Happy to be with you for a Quick Take of what I think is going on. I wanted to talk a little bit about Biden versus the MAGA Republicans, because of course, if you go back to the inaugural when President Biden had just taken over, he was the unifier. This was the man that was elected to try to reduce tempers and division inside what has become the most politically divided and dysfunctional of G7 economies. And wanted to bring to an end, what Biden referred to in that speech, as the uncivil war that pits red versus blue.

Now over the course of the last few days, President Biden has said something very different. He's referred to MAGA Republicans as semi-fascists a few months ago. Of course, he was talking about ultra MAGA. I guess those are now full-on fascist. And of course, they're also Americans and yes, it is absolutely true that some MAGA Republicans overtly support overturning a free and fair election and even using violence in so doing. And that is deeply problematic for the persistence and strength of a democracy. But it's also true that not all supporters of Donald Trump feel that way and taring 30% to 35% of the US population as beyond redemption tends to harden the political divides in the country.

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Are We In A Recession? | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Are we in a recession?

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his analysis on US politics.

When is a recession, not a recession?

The Biden administration this week has spent an extraordinary amount of time refuting the notion that the US economy is in a recession. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen on Sunday pointed to strong job numbers and consumer spending as signals that the US economy continues to grow. But plenty of analysts have started to question how strong and durable that growth is in the face of rising prices and Fed induced interest rate hikes. Later this week, the government will release its estimate for second quarter economic growth. The first quarter data showed that the economy shrank by 1.5% and supply chain problems wreaked havoc on economic output and some estimates of second quarter growth suggest there could be another quarter of contraction in the cards.

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Trump's 2024 Outlook & Jan. 6 Committee Impact | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Trump's 2024 outlook: more vulnerable after Jan 6 hearings

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Happy Monday. And a Quick Take for you to get your week started off. Wanted to talk a little bit about a topic I haven't discussed very much and that is the implications of the January 6th commission and where we are heading for US elections.

It's pretty clear to me that Trump is still the most popular in the Republican Party. And if you want to make a bet, you would certainly still say that he gets the nomination. I think it's virtually a hundred percent that he's going to announce his candidacy. Closest people around him certainly believe that in relatively short order. But he is more vulnerable than he was just a few months ago. And some of this is obvious. I mean, he's not president anymore and so he doesn't have the platform that he had when he was president. Of course, he's going to lose a significant amount of attention, impact as a consequence of that. He's been banned from Twitter. He's banned from Facebook. And his new Truth Social is not doing very much to speak of, at least to date. Doesn't seem to have any real management. And a couple times I've taken a look at it, doesn't seem to have a lot going on in terms of the space. He's not attracting the same crowds he used to when he gives speeches.

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Annie Gugliotta

Two-party reckoning looms in America

US politics faces a unique moment. Both of the major political parties have leaders, but in each case, more than six in 10 Americans don’t want either to run for president in 2024. In the coming months, Democrats and Republicans will each face a reckoning, and the world will be watching closely.

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Are US politicians too old?

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his analysis on US politics:

Are America's political leaders too old?

A new poll this week suggests the Democratic voters would be very open to alternatives to President Joe Biden in the 2024 election cycle. Many Democrats, including Biden himself, argue that he offers their best chance to defeat our Republican challengers in two years, particularly if that challenger is former President Donald Trump. But it's very clear through polling leaks and voter interviews, that there is a high degree of concern about one major issue, President Biden's age. Among the 64% of Democratic primary voters in the New York Times poll who said they would prefer a candidate other than Joe Biden, 33%, a plurality, said it was because of his age. Biden is already the oldest president in history, and if he wins another term, he would be 82 on Inauguration Day, and 86 when he finishes his second term.

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Japan To Become More Assertive On Global Stage After PM Abe's Death | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Japan's assertive foreign and economic policy reflect Abe's legacy

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

With Japanese people mourning former PM Shinzo Abe, how will his death further influence Japan's politics?

Well, we've already seen a fairly easy majority win by Abe's own Liberal Democratic Party. He had been stumping for them when he was assassinated. His two legacies are things that the Japanese are moving on. One, Abenomics, the three arrows of fiscal policy and monetary policy and growth really underpin the new style of capitalism that Prime Minister Kishida's been talking about. I think that they will more assertively align towards those, even though the BOJ at this point, The Bank of Japan doesn't have a lot of flexibility given the indebtedness levels. But also the Quad, the CPTPP, the desire of the Japanese, the prime minister to go to NATO for the summit a couple weeks ago. I mean, all of these were really kicked off by Abe wanting a more assertive foreign policy, normalizing their defense capabilities. You might even see a move now towards reforming the constitution on the defense side, something Abe wanted to do but didn't have the votes for. Now the LDP does. I expect to see Japan increasingly assertive on the global stage like you've seen Germany under Olaf Scholz.

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Paige Fusco

Dysfunction and direction in American politics

America’s political season is now in full swing. Thirteen states have already held primary elections, and every new controversy is weighed for its possible impact on November’s midterms. Media coverage has focused mainly on sagging confidence in President Joe Biden, the impact of Donald Trump’s endorsement on statewide races, and the battle for control of Congress over the next two years.

But there’s a bigger picture here. We’ve entered a historic moment of transition in American politics in which both parties are headed for crucial turning points. The Democrats are now led by a 79-year-old incumbent president who has a composite approval rating south of 41% and no heir apparent. Vice President Kamala Harris’s approval number is even lower than Biden’s.

The Republican Party is led by the twice-impeached, 75-year-old former President Trump, who left office in defeat with an approval rating of 34%. But there’s not yet a viable understudy here either. There are many plausible candidates for the Republican 2024 presidential nomination, but none is polling anywhere close to Trump in head-to-head matchups. And even if Trump’s brand of politics outlives the man himself, we can’t yet predict how combative political rhetoric might translate into policy.

In short, we enter this election year with no clear idea of where either party is headed.

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