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Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes US envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on April 25, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Another glitch in Russia-Ukraine talks, UK Labour Party to raise taxes to record levels, Tensions spike in Syria’s third-largest city
Witkoff leak is only the latest glitch in Russia-Ukraine negotiations
A leaked recording of an October call between US special envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Kremlin official is the latest drama to spill into the Ukraine peace talks. In the call, scooped by Bloomberg, Witkoff – already mistrusted by the Ukrainians – gives tips on how Russian President Vladimir Putin can soften up US President Donald Trump in negotiations. This follows the mini-drama in which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was forced to affirm this week that the White House had “authored” an initial 28-point plan, after he reportedly told US senators that it hadn’t. Meanwhile Russia is still warning that it won’t accept a deal that strays from its red lines, while accusing Europe of “meddling” in the talks. With so much drama and division, we are keenly tuned in to see what plan, if any, emerges in the coming days.
Will the UK’s new budget right the ship?
The UK government will impose record tax hikes in order to balance the state’s finances while supporting more social spending, according to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ new budget. The tax burden will reach 38% of GDP by 2030, the highest in UK history, with the help of a de-facto income tax rise and a new tax on homes worth above £2 million. Labour supporters will cheer the increased social spending but the higher overall tax burden, even on less affluent families, could sting at the polls. Markets swung forward and back in response to the announcement, suggesting they weren’t fully convinced by Labour’s efforts to balance its books. We’re watching to see how this bold fiscal move will affect Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his flailing government.
Syria’s sectarian tensions flare again after brutal double killing
The gruesome murder of a Sunni bedouin couple in the Syrian city of Homs has stoked sectarian tensions in one of the country’s largest cities. The husband and wife were found dead in their home, with sectarian epithets scrawled at the scene. The killings set off a brief wave of reprisals against local Alawites, the sect to which the now-ousted Assad dynasty belonged. Since overthrowing the Assad regime a year ago, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who has remade himself as a statesman, has struggled to contain sectarian violence, some of it stoked by his own men. The situation in Homs, a strategically located city that is home to Sunnis, Shia, Christians, and Alawites, is an important test case.
Argentine President Javier Milei speaks during the America Business Forum at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, USA, on November 6, 2025.
Hard Numbers: US banks’ Argentina bailout plan falls through, Trump threatens Dem lawmakers, India is latest heist site, Saudi investment fund is stretched, & More
$20 billion: Argentine President Javier Milei had a fantastic midterm election last month, but the celebration might be coming to an abrupt end: A group of US banks shelved its $20-billion bailout plan for the South American nation, favoring instead a short-term loan package.
6: A group of six US Democratic lawmakers published a video telling military and intelligence officials that they must disobey illegal orders. The move irked President Donald Trump, who suggested that the move constituted, “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!”
70 million: The Louvre wasn’t the only site of a successful heist in broad daylight this fall, as a group of men posing as Indian central bank officials robbed a vehicle that held 70 million rupees ($800,000) in the southern state of Karnataka on Wednesday afternoon, per police. Law enforcement is still searching for the culprits.
41: Relentless rains and flooding in central Vietnam have killed at least 41 people, left nine missing, submerged over 52,000 homes, and cut power to half a million households. Hard-hit cities like Hoi An and Nha Trang face evacuations, landslides, and infrastructure collapse as typhoons grow increasingly frequent.
10.5: The former leader of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party was sentenced to ten-and-a-half years in prison this morning for accepting pro-Russian bribes. Nathan Gill was paid thousands of pounds to deliver TV interviews in favor of an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reform UK has taken a more dovish position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than other parties in the United Kingdom.
$1 trillion: During his White House visit this week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to increase his investment in US firms to nearly $1 trillion. There’s just one problem: Riyadh’s Public Investment Fund is running low on cash, according to a New York Times report.
Trouble ahead for UK’s prime minister?
Although the Labour Party won a majority just a couple of years ago, Bildt says the government has since become “one of the least popular” in recent British history. He points to Labour's lack of clear policies and a perception of Starmer as “indecisive and technocratic” as key reasons for the Party's rapid slump in support.
Looking ahead, Bildt warns that local elections in May 2026 could be decisive. If the Labour Party performs poorly, “the future of the prime minister is, to put it mildly, very uncertain.”
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves 10 Downing Street in London, United Kingdom, on November 12, 2025.
What We’re Watching: UK’s Starmer on the ropes, Mexico’s Sheinbaum beefs up security in wild West, Hamas fighters trapped in their own tunnels
Is the UK’s prime minister heading for the exit?
Just 18 months after Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a 174-seat majority in Parliament, he’s now clinging to power, with reports that he could be removed when he announces the budget in two weeks’ time. His allies say he will fight any attempts from within the party to oust him. Why is Starmer struggling? The economy is stagnant, he can’t unite his party, and he hasn’t crafted a clear vision for the country amid pressure from both the left and the right. To initiate the removal process, though, 20% of Labour MPs must nominate a challenger. Will any of Starmer’s allies turn on him and run against the PM?
Mexico’s president vs. the narcos of Michoacán
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is facing a major test of her security policy in the cartel-riddled western state of Michoacán, where the recent assassination of a popular mayor has sparked protests. Sheinbaum has sent in an additional 1,000 federal troops, bringing the total deployment to 10,000, and pledged $3 billion to boost security while also tackling poverty and other root causes of cartel power. Since taking office a year ago, Sheinbaum has pursued a harder line against cartels than her political patron and predecessor, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, in part because of heightened pressure from the Trump administration.
Trapped Hamas fighters put Phase 2 of ceasefire in jeopardy
As Phase 1 of Gaza's ceasefire nears its end, 200 Hamas fighters who are not being allowed to leave tunnels in Israeli-controlled Rafah have emerged as a critical obstacle. Hamas wants them to be granted safe passage to Hamas-controlled areas – an idea that US special envoy Steve Witkoff was amenable to in exchange for the terrorist group disarming. However, Israel is reluctant to allow them to go free. Phase 2 negotiations began yesterday, which will require Hamas disarmament, IDF withdrawal, a transitional government, and international peacekeepers. But resolving the tunnel standoff comes first. Even then, documents obtained by Politico reveal Trump administration officials harbor deep doubts about whether both sides will follow through on Phase 2.
Prince Andrew – now Andrew Mountbatten Windsor – leaves Buckingham Palace on the day of King Charles' coronation ceremony, in London, United Kingdom, on May 6, 2023.
What We’re Watching: King’s brother loses royal title, Japan-China tensions surround leaders’ summit, Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue
Epstein scandal takes down the king’s brother
Prince Andrew is now just Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, after Buckingham Palace stripped King Charles III’s younger brother of his royal titles on Thursday night. The move was caused by Andrew’s relationship with child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and the ex-prince’s alleged relations with the late Virginia Giuffre when she was a teenager. He will also have to leave his royal home in Windsor. Andrew’s public demise began in 2019, when he had a disastrous interview with the BBC – the interview even became a subject of a film. Despite losing his title, Andrew remains eighth in line to the throne. The Epstein scandal has forced major exits in the UK, but not in the US – could that change?
Cordial Xi-Takaichi meeting masks simmering Japan-China tensions
Is Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi the Viktor Orban of the Pacific? While Takaichi said she “spoke frankly” to Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday about Beijing’s rare-earth export curbs, aggression in the East China Sea, and human-rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, the two leaders also agreed to pursue “constructive and stable ties.” Like her ultra-conservative Hungarian counterpart, Takaichi appears to be building a close relationship with US President Donald Trump while engaging with Beijing – no small feat as tensions heat up in the Indo-Pacific.
Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue in Brazil
Many of the bodies are still being identified, but the staggering death toll of this week’s raid by police on drug traffickers in a Rio de Janeiro favela has already become hotly politicized. The move against the powerful Comanda Vermelha gang was the deadliest in Brazil’s history: 160 people are dead, including four police officers. Politicians on the right praised the operation, while those on the left – including President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – have denounced traffickers but questioned the effectiveness of violent crackdowns. The issue will surely shape next year’s presidential election, with crime a top concern for voters. Lula recently announced that he will seek a fourth and final term.
Members of the military police special unit detain suspected drug dealers during a police operation against drug trafficking at the favela do Penha, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 28, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Massive drug raid in Brazil, Five Republicans vote to scrap Brazil tariffs, Wildlife charity eyes duke’s estate, & More
64: A massive police raid targeting a drug-trafficking organization in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, yesterday has left at least 64 people dead, including four police officers. The state governor said it was the “biggest operation” in Rio’s history. More than 40 bodies were seen strewn on the streets of the Penha favela on Wednesday.
5: Five Republican senators crossed party lines to vote to end the Trump administration’s 50% tariff on Brazil. The resolution is unlikely to pass the House, but the vote signaled growing resistance in the Republican ranks to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff and trade agenda.
750,000: Cuba evacuated 750,000 people before Hurricane Melissa made landfall on the Caribbean island on Wednesday. The storm only adds to a torrent of challenges for the communist-ruled country, which has faced economic collapse, frequent blackouts, and a mass exodus of its citizens. The category 5 storm has weakened to category 2 since wreaking havoc in Jamaica, which is still assessing the cost.
99.9%: Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates today? Futures markets this morning gave a 99.9% chance of a 25 basis-point cut (that’s 0.25 percentage points). This would be the second consecutive month of rate cuts. Trump has pushed the Fed for deeper and faster rate cuts than that.
£30 million: After seven centuries of family control, the son of a British duke is looking to sell his family’s estate in north-east England, and one of the interested buyers is… a wildlife charity. The Wildlife Trusts already bought the western part of the estate last year, but the plot thickens: it’s now looking to buy the remaining 3,839 hectares for £30 million ($40 million). The charity would try to conserve and rewild the area, which is rich with wildlife. Editor’s note: People outside the UK may wonder why we included this fascinating number – but GZERO’s Zac Weisz assures us it’s a real banger for his fellow Brits.King Charles III says goodbye to Pope Leo XIV in the San Damaso Courtyard, in St Peter's Square, after attending the ecumenical service in the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City, during the state visit to the Holy See, on October 23, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Pope and king pray together, Gazans bury unidentified dead, Cast of crabs begin Christmas Island migration, & More
491: In a moment of religious and historical significance, King Charles III prayed alongside Pope Leo XIV today, becoming the first head of the Church of England to do so since this church split from the Vatican 491 years ago. The two leaders also exchanged gifts: Charles gave Leo a silver photograph of St. Edward the Confessor, and in return, the pontiff handed the king a scale version of the “Christ Pantocrator” mosaic.
54: Gazans buried the unidentified remains of 54 Palestinians on Wednesday that Israeli authorities had returned to the strip. The mass burial has prompted questions in Gaza about who the dead were, and what had happened to them. Israeli authorities said they had been combatants in Gaza.
36,734: The number of people crossing the Channel from France to the United Kingdom has already hit 36,734 so far this year, but that amount may be set to increase further – and the French political crisis is partly to blame. Paris appears to be backing away from recent commitments to clamp down on this form of migration, in part due to the recent exit of Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who had instigated an aggressive approach.
50 million: A cast of roughly 50 million crabs have begun their annual migration across Christmas Island off the coast of Australia, as they will move from their homes to the beaches to lay their eggs. Authorities on the island have built special bridges to help the crabs navigate obstacles like roads.
677: Nearly 700 foreigners fled Myanmar into Thailand after the military seized KK Park, a notorious Chinese-backed cybercrime compound known for cyber scams run by criminal gangs.. Thai authorities detained 677 people, mostly from China and India, and say all actions follow legal and humanitarian principles.
Former UK prime minister Tony Blair and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13, 2025.
Can a former UK prime minister manage Gaza?
At first glance, it might seem odd that Tony Blair is leading the Western proposal for the future of Gaza.
It’s been 18 years since Blair exited 10 Downing Street, ending a historic decade in power that featured three election victories – including two landslide wins – that marked the peak of the Labour Party’s powers in the United Kingdom. Yet he played a major role in brokering the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and is now part of the “Board of Peace” that, under the ceasefire deal, will aim to ensure a permanent cessation of fighting in the region.
To better understand the former UK prime minister and his interests in Gaza’s future, it’s worthwhile to go back and examine his record.
From a domestic perspective, many praised Blair’s time in power, which ran from 1997 to 2007. He introduced a national minimum wage while bringing the unemployment rate to its lowest level in decades. He created a program called “Sure Start” to boost education for young children in low-income areas, the benefits of which the UK is still realizing. Annual growth rates averaged about 3% during his time in power, the likes of which his successors could only dream.
“But Iraq.” These two words have become modern-day parlance in the United Kingdom for a fatal flaw. For all his domestic success, Blair’s decision to join US President George W. Bush in invading the Middle East country in 2003 prompted a major backlash. Between one and two million took to the streets of London that year to protest the decision in what was the largest demonstration in the city’s history. Though Blair retained power after the 2005 election, his legacy would be tarnished forever. In case you missed it, the decision to invade Iraq backfired, leaving Iraq in ruins and exacerbating the issue of terrorism.
Blair’s foreign policy wasn’t a complete bust. He is considered a hero in Kosovo after he helped gather an international coalition to end the Serbian crackdown on the enclave in 1999. Many young boys there are now named after the former Labour leader.
But he still wants to have a say in the Middle East. In truth, Blair never stopped caring about the region. The same day he resigned from UK office, he was appointed as special envoy of the Middle East Quartet, a group comprising the United Nations, the United States, the European Union, and Russia that tries to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Bush administration had pushed for his appointment, but he didn’t achieve much, and resigned from the post in 2015 after eight years. The next year, he set up his think tank, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. With help from the world’s one-time richest man – which has drawn some scrutiny – the group has become arguably the most influential UK think tank, and was even involved in drawing up plans for the future of Gaza.
What’s his plan? The former UK leader released a 21-point proposal last month. This included establishing the Gaza International Transitional Authority to manage Gaza on an interim basis, a long-term goal of placing all Palestinian territories under the Palestinian Authority, and creating a security force – known as the International Stabilization Force – to maintain peace between Gazan residents and to nullify Hamas. Unlike some other plans, Blair’s one excludes any encouragement of the “voluntary migration” of Gazans out of the Strip.
The plan has been 14 years in the making, per the Vision of Humanity: Blair helped fashion a report in 2011 about building infrastructure and creating governance in Gaza.
Blair then helped US special envoy Steve Witkoff and former White House adviser Jared Kushner to create a US plan for Gaza this month, one that borrowed from the UK leader’s prior proposals. This plan – backed by many Arab states – would create a “Board of Peace” that will temporarily govern the enclave, with US President Donald Trump acting as its chairman and Blair as one of the board members. It doesn’t explicitly name any other leaders who would be part of this body. Drawing on Blair’s roadmap, Washington’s plan also calls to establish the International Stabilization Force.
Is Blair really going to govern Gaza? The plan isn’t set in stone, but it looks that way – especially after the Palestinian Authority endorsed the idea of giving him a role. Hamas has rejected giving a role to the former UK leader, but the plan also says the militant group can’t have a role in the future governance of Gaza, so their vote might not count for much. If Blair does nab a role, can he achieve some measure of redemption, and finally restore something that he cherishes now more than ever: his legacy?