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Argentine President Javier Milei speaks during the America Business Forum at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, USA, on November 6, 2025.
Hard Numbers: US banks’ Argentina bailout plan falls through, Trump threatens Dem lawmakers, India is latest heist site, Saudi investment fund is stretched, & More
$20 billion: Argentine President Javier Milei had a fantastic midterm election last month, but the celebration might be coming to an abrupt end: A group of US banks shelved its $20-billion bailout plan for the South American nation, favoring instead a short-term loan package.
6: A group of six US Democratic lawmakers published a video telling military and intelligence officials that they must disobey illegal orders. The move irked President Donald Trump, who suggested that the move constituted, “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!”
70 million: The Louvre wasn’t the only site of a successful heist in broad daylight this fall, as a group of men posing as Indian central bank officials robbed a vehicle that held 70 million rupees ($800,000) in the southern state of Karnataka on Wednesday afternoon, per police. Law enforcement is still searching for the culprits.
41: Relentless rains and flooding in central Vietnam have killed at least 41 people, left nine missing, submerged over 52,000 homes, and cut power to half a million households. Hard-hit cities like Hoi An and Nha Trang face evacuations, landslides, and infrastructure collapse as typhoons grow increasingly frequent.
10.5: The former leader of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party was sentenced to ten-and-a-half years in prison this morning for accepting pro-Russian bribes. Nathan Gill was paid thousands of pounds to deliver TV interviews in favor of an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reform UK has taken a more dovish position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than other parties in the United Kingdom.
$1 trillion: During his White House visit this week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to increase his investment in US firms to nearly $1 trillion. There’s just one problem: Riyadh’s Public Investment Fund is running low on cash, according to a New York Times report.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman reacts next to US President Donald Trump during the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.
The Saudi crown prince returns to Washington
For the first time in seven years, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is returning to Washington, DC, this week. While crude oil has traditionally pulled the two countries close together, it is now the great power-chess game between the US and China that is making them join forces.
MBS, as the de-facto Saudi leader is known, and US President Donald Trump have much to discuss when it comes to peace in the Middle East. The chances of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel by joining the Abraham Accords are slim. Nonetheless, defense agreements will be on the table, as Saudi Arabia seeks to bolster its protections in what has been a tumultuous year in the region.
The US-Saudi relationship has come full circle since the crown prince’s last visit in 2018. Since then, there was the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi – reportedly sanctioned by the crown prince – at a Saudi consulate in Turkey, which created major tensions. Those were exacerbated after Riyadh got upset with Washington when it refused to respond to the 2019 Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities. Then, during the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden suggested Saudi Arabia should be a “pariah.” Biden then sought to ease tensions in 2022, as he wanted Riyadh to pump more oil to alleviate high inflation rates. And now the AI race between the US and China has pushed Riyadh and Washington closer together.
“[Khashoggi’s death] hung like a pall over MBS reputation in the United States,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO. “Time has worn away the sting a little bit.”
The Middle East has also changed dramatically over the past seven years. Israel was locked in a brutal war with Hamas for the past two years, with a fragile ceasefire keeping the peace for now. More Arab nations are concerned about the conflict spilling over, too, especially after Israel bombed Qatar in a failed bid to kill Hamas leaders. Meanwhile, the influence of Saudi’s top enemy, Iran, has diminished, as its proxies in the region – the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza – have all been hobbled or even removed.
“Iran is no longer the strategic threat that it was seven years ago,” Ibish said. “[But] there is still this need on the part of Saudi Arabia for American security guarantees.”
So what will Trump and bin Salman discuss? First and foremost for the crown prince will be defense. There are two aspects to this: firstly, Saudi wants a defense agreement akin to what the US signed with Qatar, ensuring that the US will defend the Gulf state in case of attack. Secondly, the Saudis want to buy F-35 planes from the US – Israel is the only Middle East country that has successfully negotiated and executed a purchase agreement of F-35s.
“The US public and US government and Trump have been a little bit more critical of Israel,” Alia Awadallah, who was a Pentagon official during Biden’s term in office, told GZERO, suggesting that the US may be willing to sell to a country other than Israel. “[Saudi Arabia] will be trying to assess whether it’s actually realistic to get that type of sale through both the White House, but also through Congress, which would have to approve it.”
The US is sure to bring up something that has layed tantalizingly out of reach: the Abraham Accords. Trump is reportedly still pressing MBS to recognize Israel and join the Accords, arguing that the peace he successfully brokered in Gaza should be enough to prompt Riyadh to do so. But the crown prince has repeatedly said that he wouldn’t do this until Israel recognizes a Palestinian state, so the chances of him signing the accords on this trip are close to null.
“At a minimum, this requires phase two of the Gaza ceasefire being implemented, and Israeli assurances regarding the Palestinian right of self determination,” said Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “And we’re not there yet.”
If there’s no agreement on the Accords, there’s likely to be more on artificial intelligence. It is this area – rather than oil – that is pushing the two countries closer together, per Maksad. Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May was all about AI, with Saudi firms pledging billions of dollars in investments. In return, Riyadh wants access to items like Nvidia’s AI chips for its data centers. Meanwhile the US wants to see those incoming investments, while ensuring that Saudi secures rights to critical minerals in Africa, grants US access to them, and blocks China from getting them. This trip will be a chance to firm up these AI ties.
“Although the headlines continue to be animated by the prospect of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia… that is the wrong lens to be looking at things,” said Maksad. “This [US-Saudi] relationship is increasingly shaped by great power competitions, particularly US-China dynamics, rather than anything specific to the region and the Arab-Israeli conflict.”
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman receives US President Joe Biden at the Royal Palace in Jeddah.
Are Saudi and Israel getting close to a normalization deal?
The US and Saudi Arabia have reportedly agreed on the outline of a normalization deal between Israel and the Gulf Kingdom that could take place within 9-12 months.
Though it’s unclear what the two parties have decided, it’s relevant that US officials leaked this update in an attempt to raise expectations that progress is being made.
What’s the background here? Israel has long made it clear that normalization with Saudi Arabia, including official diplomatic relations, is a key priority that would help pave the way for the Jewish State to gain legitimacy throughout the Muslim world.
As the custodian of two of Islam’s holiest sites, the epicenter of Sunni Islam, and an influential petrostate, Saudi Arabia is one of the most powerful states in the Muslim world.
While Israel and the Saudis have for decades cooperated behind closed doors – even more so in recent years due to their shared enmity of Iran – the latter has been reluctant to officialize the relationship. Riyadh has cited the Palestinian issue as the main obstacle, but the bottom line is that accepting Israel is still taboo in the Arab world.
To be sure, that all started to shift three years ago when three Arab states – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco – normalized relations with Israel under the Trump-backed Abraham Accords.
So what does everyone want? In addition to the hoped-for trickle-down effect, for Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu, the Saudis abandoning their long-standing insistence that the Palestinian issue be resolved beforehand would be a symbolic and ideological victory.
Meanwhile, for the Biden administration, the deal would be a foreign policy win ahead of the 2024 election. But as foreign policy isn’t a huge electoral issue for American voters, Washington is likely more motivated by the need to create a new web of alliances in the Middle East as Russia and China seek to enlarge their respective footprints in the region. Indeed, Washington reportedly asked Riyadh to cool relations with Beijing to move things along.
What’s the Saudi angle? While normalization presents an economic opportunity, Riyadh is likely more concerned about securing from the US several concessions that have long been on its wishlist, including a bilateral NATO-like security guarantee, the go-ahead for a civilian nuclear power program and the removal of some arm sales embargos.
Here’s the catch: Bibi, a right-winger, is very popular in the Republican Party, and so Biden will likely have an easier time pitching the deal to the GOP. However, it could be harder to sell it to members of his own party, many of whom don’t think the US should give an inch to the Saudis due to their human rights record. And they aren’t very fond of Bibi Netanyahu either.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Is the US trying to patch things up with Saudi?
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled on Tuesday to Saudi Arabia for a three-day trip, marking the second high-level US visit to the kingdom over the past month.
While few have expectations of a large breakthrough in a relationship that's been underpinned by awkward exchanges and tense standoffs for some time, Blinken is likely hoping to bolster waning trust.
Why now? The US’ top diplomat likely hopes that confidence-boosting measures can help give Washington some renewed influence over global oil policy, which the Saudis largely steer. And the timing of this trip couldn’t be more apt, particularly after Riyadh announced Sunday that it will unilaterally slash oil production by 1 million barrels per day starting next month. (You may recall that the kingdom’s decision to cut oil output – in turn raising gas prices – ahead of the 2022 midterm elections deepened the US-Saudi rift.)
Blinken also reportedly aims to push the Saudis to normalize ties with Israel, which has long been on the cards but hasn’t materialized due to a range of sticking points.
To be sure, the US-Saudi relationship is important to both sides. However, deteriorating relations amid a changing geopolitical landscape reinforce that the longstanding model of Saudi oil in exchange for US arms and security guarantees no longer flies.
Saudi Arabia proved it's still the key player in the Gulf
Joe Biden's pledges to prevent Iran from getting the bomb and to defend Saudi Arabia from an attack were "music to Saudi Arabia's ears," Bernard Haykel, a professor at Princeton University and confidante of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. Biden's controversial trip was largely viewed as a big win for the Saudis, while the US didn't get much out of the discussions because Biden's team didn't do their homework, says Haykel.
The Saudis "were able to show that they have tremendous convening power" by bringing in all the Gulf leaders, thus demonstrating that Riyadh is the most important player there — and the partner you need for political and energy stability.
Haykel discusses how MBS consolidated power, the kingdom's strategic value to the US in the Middle East, MBS's strategy to modernize his country, and the prospects for future warmer ties with Israel. After the international furor over murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Haykel says, "I don't think that they will ever do anything like that again."
Oil, entitlement, & how MBS is changing Saudi Arabia
What is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman really doing to modernize Saudi Arabia? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asks Princeton University's Bernard Hayel.
MBS, as he's known in the West, is "basically banking on the bulk of the population that's under 30, [who think] he's a rock star because of the things he's doing."
Meanwhile, "anyone over 40 hates him because he's taking away entitlements" and changing the modus operandi of the country.
Haykel explains that the crown prince knows it's unsustainable for Saudi Arabia to continue relying exclusively on oil to grow.
They're still raking it in because prices are high, but MBS needs to get ahead of the curve by reforming subsidies and taxation.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Saudi Arabia’s repressive power politics
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Blowback on MBS from Khashoggi murder saved many other journalists, says expert
US-Saudi relations were strained after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which the CIA says was ordered by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS. And he knows it was a risky move.
"I don't think that they will ever do anything like that again," says Bernard Haykel, a professor at Princeton University and MBS insider.
Still, he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, the regime will continue to be very repressive and authoritarian, doing things like mass executions of convicted terrorists from al-Qaeda and the Islamic State but also dissident Shiites.
Haykel says no one in the US will shed a tear for the former, but the latter "certainly did not deserve execution."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Saudi Arabia’s repressive power politics
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How MBS consolidated power in Saudi Arabia
What sets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, better known as MBS, apart from other autocrats who've risen to power in recent years?
He's consolidated power by "emasculating" his own family, including America's pick to succeed his dad, says Bernard Haykel, a professor at Princeton University and MBS confidante.
The effort "was extremely brutal and messy at times," he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
On the heels of the US president's recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Haykel thinks that even if there's no love lost between Joe Biden and MBS, America needs a "status quo power" like the kingdom in the region to defend US core strategic interests.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Saudi Arabia’s repressive power politics
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