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China brokers deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hello and good Monday morning to everybody. It's Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take to kick off your week. Want to talk about China and specifically this big announcement, a breakthrough diplomatic deal negotiated by Xi Jinping, between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Two countries with all sorts of problems between the two proxy wars and major security challenges. When they had the big demonstrations inside Iran against the government, they were blaming the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia for undermining and trying to overthrow the regime. And now instead, you have the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers meeting together with the Chinese Foreign Minister and signing a trilateral agreement saying that they're going to open formal diplomatic relations within two months.
That's a big deal for a China that historically would have played no leadership role in any major negotiations outside of things that are of critical national security importance in Asia, in their backyard. And here we have Xi Jinping announcing a deal that the Americans, the Europeans, literally played no role in and couldn't play a role. The United States doesn't have diplomatic relations open with Iran. Should be welcomed by the world. It's better for everyone if these two major countries in the region are able to engage diplomatically with each other. But of course, it also shows a more significant footprint for Xi Jinping's China on the global stage. A country that right now has bad relations with the United States, no trust and increasingly heading in a confrontational direction.
Now, this doesn't mean the end of US influence in other areas. If we talk about Asia, for example, it's true the Americans withdrew, were not able to get the Trans-Pacific Partnership done, which would've been a big deal. But the US is utterly critical from the security perspective for all of its allies on the ground. Its building more architecture, particularly in terms of the Quad. And indeed, today you've got Biden meeting with the Australian Prime Minister, with the UK Prime Minister in San Diego, in part because of the August submarine and security agreement. Again, important for Asia in Europe, the US is more important from a security perspective, given the Russian invasion in Ukraine.
But on the Middle East, where the Biden administration doesn't really have a strategic policy, things are very different indeed. The US is on the wrong side of most Middle Eastern countries. From an energy perspective, the United States under Biden talking about a transition away from fossil fuels, but not talking a lot about the fossil fuels that are required to get there. And given that this is the most important economic interest for Gulf producers, you could understand, they don't see themselves as very aligned with the United States there. Where with China, which is increasingly the last country standing in terms of global fossil fuel demand, and the Saudis in particular in terms of inexpensive global fossil fuel supply, that alignment should surprise nobody.
Diplomacy, with the Biden administration saying that the world is increasingly a battle between democracies and autocracies. Well, I mean, if that's the case, I guess the United States doesn't have much to do in the Middle East where there's barely any democracies around, I mean, Israel, and they're hanging on at this point, though Netanyahu is doing what he can to undermine it. And you get beyond that, and where should the Americans be in the Middle East if they're fighting against autocracies? And of course, the Chinese see that as a vacuum created, that is an opportunity for them.
On security, the United States still plays a very important intelligence, military weapon export and strategic alignment, certainly in terms of Qatar, but also the UAE, Saudis and others. But keeping in mind that the Americans withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal that was supposed to be providing some level of stability and security in the region, the Americans haven't been effective in bringing peace on Yemen, something the Chinese have expressed more interest in recently. And in response to say, Iranian drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, on the UAE, the United States was not acting like much of a strategic ally. For all of those regions, that the level of commitment that the Gulf Arabs see from the United States is open to question. And that meant that they were very happy to see a China that's investing a lot in the region even, yes, with their adversaries, the Iranians saying, "We'll play a role in fostering and brokering peace." The Saudis very interested, the Iranians very interested. Now, you're going to see Beijing host a broader summit for the Gulf Cooperation Council in Beijing. And the Iranians are going to be likely invited to that as long as the GCC can get its head around it. So I think that China's role is structurally becoming far greater. This feels like a very different Middle East than we had in past years, nevermind decades.
And also, we should talk about Russia-Ukraine, where not only have the Chinese put out this 12-point peace plan, which the Russians have said they're interested in, the Ukrainians have not refused, but certainly have problems with. Well, now it looks like Xi Jinping is finally going to have a direct phone call after being pushed, particularly by the Germans, the French, and others to make that happen. Looks like they are going to talk in the coming week and indeed, that Xi Jinping is planning a trip to Moscow to meet with President Putin soon. Big difference between meeting with, as opposed to a call, and of course, big difference between China's strategic partnership with Russia, and Putin and ostensible, performative, nominal recognition of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is aligned with the way China feels about Taiwan being a part of mainland China. But doesn't mean the Chinese are going to either condemn the Russians for an illegal invasion, illegal annexations, or try to broker a deal where they leave all of the territory that they have taken illegally since February 24th, nevermind since 2014.
I'm deeply skeptical that the Chinese have a constructive role to play in bringing peace to Russia-Ukraine. But I clearly see that China is in a much better position to align much of the world with a ceasefire and peace in Russia-Ukraine, when they are claiming that the Americans are pushing for escalation by providing all of the military support for Ukraine and by pushing sanctions. Those are completely understandable, and positions I personally support in response to Russia's illegal invasion, but from the perspective of the entire developing world. And I mean everyone, I mean Latin America, Brazil, Mexico, I mean the Middle East, I mean Africa, I mean Southeast Asia, I mean even India, a country that's in principle much more aligned with the US than China on most national security issues. All of these countries generally believe that the Americans are pushing escalation in the war in Russia-Ukraine, and that the Chinese are taking a more constructive position, a position that they are more aligned with. And so this Xi Jinping trip to Moscow is I think going to be much friendlier than one would've expected in the last few months. Really, at any time since the war started on February 24th. May well be more aligned with the joint statement you saw at the Beijing Olympics back in February 4th. And that, of course, is a very deep problem for the United States, especially on the back of Xi Jinping's statements about the US directly that he made just a week ago. Probably the most hawkish direct statements made by a Chinese leader about the US that we've seen in decades.
So, deeply concerning geopolitically, probably the worst week geopolitically the United States has had in years. That's where we are. China's a very big part of it, Russia's a part too, and we'll talk about this. I'm sure very much going forward. Be good. I'll talk to you soon.
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- How Iran beats Russia at sanctions game ›
- Can Saudi Arabia and Iran really be friends? ›
- What We're Watching: Israel's mega-protest, Iran-Saudi détente, BBC own goal ›
- Ukraine dam sabotage: not enough evidence to speculate - GZERO Media ›
- Saudi-led peace talks on Ukraine ›
Saudi Arabia proved it's still the key player in the Gulf
Joe Biden's pledges to prevent Iran from getting the bomb and to defend Saudi Arabia from an attack were "music to Saudi Arabia's ears," Bernard Haykel, a professor at Princeton University and confidante of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. Biden's controversial trip was largely viewed as a big win for the Saudis, while the US didn't get much out of the discussions because Biden's team didn't do their homework, says Haykel.
The Saudis "were able to show that they have tremendous convening power" by bringing in all the Gulf leaders, thus demonstrating that Riyadh is the most important player there — and the partner you need for political and energy stability.
Haykel discusses how MBS consolidated power, the kingdom's strategic value to the US in the Middle East, MBS's strategy to modernize his country, and the prospects for future warmer ties with Israel. After the international furor over murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Haykel says, "I don't think that they will ever do anything like that again."
Biden-MBS meeting was "total win" for Saudis, says expert
US President Joe Biden didn't get much out of his recent — and very controversial — trip to Saudi Arabia. Why?
His team didn't do their homework by getting the Saudis to agree on stuff in advance, says Bernard Haykel, a professor at Princeton University and confidante of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.
"This was a total win for the Saudis," Haykel tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Indeed, Biden's pledges to never allow Iran to get the bomb or defend Saudi Arabia from an attack are all "music to Saudi Arabia's ears."
What's more, Haykel adds, the Saudis "were able to show that they have tremendous convening power" by bringing in all the Gulf leaders, thus demonstrating that Riyadh is the most important player there — and the partner you need for political and energy stability.
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Biden's Saudi Arabia visit is more about strategic partnership than oil
I accept that as a reason, but I would be much more direct than that. The fact is that when you have a country that is a strategic partner of yours and has been for a long time, that also matters. And when that country behaves in ways that are more aligned with you strategically, you should recognize that and your behavior should change accordingly. Now, there's no question in my mind that we have had significant differences with the Saudis in the past, and we still do. But Saudi Arabia's also the largest arms purchaser from the United States in the world, and the US is the largest arms exporter in the world. Russia is number two. Won't be for long given their manufacturing and supply chain challenges. So that matters, and that's one of the reasons why the Trump administration had such a good relationship there, as did, frankly, the Obama administration and previous administrations.
And it's not just that. It's also intelligence coordination. It's the Saudis working increasingly closely behind the scenes and at a high level with the Israelis, who are the closest American ally of the United States in the region. Now, on a number of issues over the past couple of years, the Saudis are increasingly, under Mohammed bin Salman, engaging in structural reform. For example, there was a big break in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the one side, and Qatar on the other. The Americans work closely with the Qataris. The Qataris have the most important American military base in the region. Well, that relationship has now improved dramatically. The boycott is over. The Gulf Cooperation Council has been more integrated. That's a positive, not just for the region, but also for the United States and its allies in Europe. That, of course, should be appreciated by the United States. That's positive progress.
So too, the fact that the war in Yemen, which was always a far worse, vastly worse human rights crisis than the slaying of a single journalist, is now in a ceasefire. And that's a positive, and hopefully that ceasefire can stick and we can have less of a humanitarian crisis in what has been an extraordinary proxy war between the Saudis and the Iranians on the ground against the Iran-supported Houthis in Yemen. That's a positive. Also, the social and economic reforms that we're seeing in Saudi Arabia that are getting Saudi citizens to work on diversifying their economy away from fossil fuels and away from petrochemicals, that are getting women into the workplace, that are opening the Saudis culturally from an entertainment perspective, from a sports perspective. These are all things that make it easier to work with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that would not be happening unless Mohammed bin Salman and an increasingly competent and coherent cabinet around him, less arbitrarily selected, were in place.
So I'm not suggesting that the Americans and the Saudis are suddenly going to have a kumbaya moment and that we think that the Saudis have become the Scandinavians in terms of human rights, though I also recognize that the US needs to focus more on the strategic partnership piece and a little bit less on the holding true to American values piece, since the US is not doing such a great job in holding true to American values in the United States, given red versus blue on pretty much every issue these days, including the legitimacy of American elections, fundamental and critical to a sustainable Republican democracy. So number one, I completely support this trip, and Biden was the one who was personally dragging his feet. His foreign policy advisors, in cabinet and in the White House, all wanted him to go. He was the one that was reluctant.
He's now finally going. I think it's a good thing. And I hope that progressives in the Democratic Party don't beat up on him too much as a consequence of the trip because it is clearly in America's interest long term to have a more stable and sustainable relationship with all of the countries of the GCC and with Israel in the Middle East. I also though think that it's not appropriate for a president to make his first trip as president to Saudi Arabia, as Trump did when he was president. And look, he was close to the Saudis and they treated him like a king when he went there and he liked that and he's close to the Israelis, and Netanyahu when he was prime minister. They have a personal relationship and had for a long time. I get it, but the Middle East is not the top priority for the United States.
Asia, Europe, and of course the Western hemisphere, all more important for the Americans, especially with the United States as the world's largest energy producer, and especially given the increasing transformation to a post-carbon, renewable energy environment. So yeah, I believe that your first trip to the Middle East isn't in the first couple of months. You first go to Canada and Mexico. You first go to Europe and to Asia and you visit the core allies. But then in relatively short order, three, four, six months out, you make a trip to the Middle East, and of course you go to Israel and you go to Saudi Arabia. That makes a lot of sense to me. It's been kicked down the road and it's been pushed in part by the Russian invasion in Ukraine, and now everyone's talking about it as if there's some big breakthrough coming in oil. I think that the oil piece of this is less important than the broader strategic partnership, not least because oil prices have been coming down over the last few weeks. They're likely to continue to.
There is a lot of oil on the market right now. Concern about oil prices was spiking in part because of worries that there'd be a broad European boycott against all shipping and insurance, which would reduce the supply by millions and millions of barrels a day. That is not coming imminently, and will probably be watered down at least a degree by the potential of having some kind of coordination on waivers from the Europeans in the near term. But also, because the world is probably heading towards a global recession, a mild one, but nonetheless a real one, on the back of the pandemic, the supply chain challenges, the Russia-Ukraine challenges, the inflation challenges. And what that means, with China slowing down dramatically with big problems still, even in Shanghai and other cities on zero-COVID, and with the Europeans probably about to experience a contraction in their economy, and the United States maybe there in 2023, that means less demand for energy.
So will the Saudis put some more oil on the market? I think they will. I think they will together with other OPEC countries and I think there'll be some form of headline announcement when Biden is there. But that's not the big news from this trip, and frankly, it shouldn't be the big news from this trip. So again, all in favor of him going, we'll see how it goes. I suspect it's going to end up being less controversial than people think. It's going to be pretty friendly and we can get back to more normalized relations with a bunch of countries. The Americans have been doing business as if there wasn't a big problem anyway.
For more of Ian Bremmer's weekly analyses, subscribe to his GZERO World newsletter at ianbremmer.bulletin.com- Is Yemen on the road to peace? - GZERO Media ›
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