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U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Cuban American leaders in the State Dining Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., July 30, 2021.
Cuba libre? Biden takes island off terror list
Biden also pledged to lift financial restrictions and suspended claims on confiscated Cuban property, policies imposed during the first presidency of Donald Trump. The general economic embargo of Cuba, however, still stands.
What was the response? Biden’s move drew mixed reactions. In Havana, families of prisoners expressed cautious hope of seeing their loved ones, while Cuban officials hailed the decision as ending “coercive measures” that damaged the country’s economy. But incoming US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz dismissed the action, warning, “Anything they are doing now we can undo.”
Why now? Biden made his announcement on the eve of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio confirmation hearing as Trump’s nominee for secretary of state. Rubio, son of Cuban immigrants, is a fierce critic of Havana who helped craft Trump’s Cuba sanctions in 2017. Biden’s office said the timing was a “coincidence.”
Will Cuba stay off the list? Likely not. US President Barack Obama had also removed Cuba from the SST list, but Trump reinstated Cuba in the last week of his presidency in 2021, citing “support for acts of international terrorism,” including harboring US fugitives and Colombian rebels. We’ll be watching whether Trump’s first flurry of executive orders reverses Biden’s decision, or whether the president-elect takes any action further down the road.
Gaza ceasefire likely as Biden and Trump both push
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon?
We've heard this news before. At least five times over the last year that we've heard we were almost at a Gaza ceasefire. This time around though it looks much more likely. Why is that? Because Trump is about to be president, because Trump's envoys and Biden's envoys have been working together on these issues, and also because that means pressing the Israeli government in a way that feels much more serious if you are the prime minister. And also because Trump has been pressing Hamas. And so, I think the unilateralism is there. The fact the deal was already very close, and now this means Biden gets to say he got the deal and Trump gets to say he's ended a war, at least for the time being, and a lot more hostages get freed. So yeah, this time around it looks pretty likely.
What do I make of a potential sale of TikTok to Elon Musk?
Well, it's just been announced that the Chinese are considering it. I always thought that it was more likely than not that if the Supreme Court were to uphold a ban that the Chinese would probably allow a sale to go through. Though they were going to say they were never going to until the last moment because why give up leverage when you don't necessarily have to? So their historic unwillingness doesn't mean to me that they're actually unwilling. To the extent that there is a deal and it goes to Elon, he becomes more powerful, and he also is seen by the Chinese as owing them one. So would he facilitate an improved, a more stable relationship between the US and China? It's an early indication that he could play a role. He hasn't said anything on the China front yet, but certainly you would expect that he would meet with the high-level envoy that's going to the inauguration that Xi Jinping was invited to on the 20th. That's what we should watch in the next week. Okay, that's it for that one.
What does Lebanon's new president mean for Hezbollah?
Weaker Hezbollah, but so much is going to be determined on what Israel decides to do on the ground in the south of Lebanon. Are they staying there for a longer period of time? We've heard news of late that they intend to maintain that occupation in a longer than just couple of weeks, couple of months environment, which makes it harder to keep Hezbollah from starting fighting again. On balance, I think this ceasefire is looking a little shakier right now, even with the new Lebanese president than it had a few weeks ago. We'll see. But if it does break down, the level of fighting won't be what it was a few months ago because Hezbollah doesn't have that capacity and the Iranians can't restock their weapons because Assad has fallen in Syria.
After Israel's response to Iran, what's next?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. No, not US elections, that'll be next week. This week. Want to talk about the Middle East and the fact that the Israelis almost a month after Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, though most of them didn't get through and no Israeli deaths on the ground, nonetheless, the Israelis expected to respond. And respond they finally have.
Military targets that they focused on. They did some damage, caused more damage to Iran than the Iranians did to Israel during their attack. That's clearly a message that the Israelis intended to send in terms of their ability to have dominance over both escalation and deterrence between the two. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, on the back of that, said not to exaggerate or downplay the strikes, that the Iranians will respond, but also the Iranians said that they fully intercepted the Israeli attack. In other words, nothing big to see here. Crude oil down about 6% today. In other words, this is the end of this escalation cycle between Iran and Israel.
Now, I have been critical of the Biden administration's inability to have much of any impact on Israeli decision-making over the course of this war. This time is a little different, they did have some impact here. And in the early days after the Israelis were hit by Iran, and keep in mind the Iranians got that information that the strike was coming to the United States, the US, of course, immediately shared it with Israel and did everything they could to coordinate with allies in the region to defend Israel effectively, which helped to ensure that the Israelis didn't take casualties, significant casualties.
But also the Biden administration saying they really didn't want Israel to engage in strikes against nuclear targets in Iran, against oil targets in Iran. And they did a couple of things for Israel. First, they sent an additional THAAD missile defense system, which they got to Israel and set up within two weeks on the ground, which is incredible fast-tracking to help further defend Israel.
Secondly, they actually took sanctions, put sanctions on additional tankers that were shutting down their transponders and shipping oil illegally for Iranian export. Not everything. The Iranians have over a million barrels a day that they get out, but probably took about 200,000 barrels a day off the market. In other words, that's money that the Iranians no longer have access to that they were able to use for whatever they wanted, including paying for Iranian proxies that target Israel.
In response for that and American diplomacy, the Israelis ended up, I would argue, with a slightly more restrained strike against Iran. They did engage in hits against Iranian missile production facilities, as well as defense against their ... that helps to defend their nuclear, their research program and weapons program, such as it is, which means that Israel has made it very clear to Iran that if they want to do this again, that Iran is not going to be able to defend itself effectively. So the message has been very, very clearly sent.
Of course, it was also helpful for Israel that they were able to kill Sinwar, the Palestinian Hamas leader, in Rafah, in Gaza, over the past couple of weeks. I mean, the Israeli war cabinet is flying high from a military perspective right now. They didn't need to show great capacity against Iran, nor have they, given their recent successes against Hezbollah.
I think it's interesting how Iran is responding to all of this, that we're seeing Iranian leaders, not just on the president and foreign affairs side, who are more reformist in orientation, but also recently Ali Velayati, who's an advisor to the Supreme Leader, saying that the Iranians are very interested in engaging more with the West, specifically with Europe. In other words, with the Iranians seeing that they are clearly on the back foot vis-a-vis Israel, is there any way that they can more effectively engage with the West, normalized relations, maybe end up with more money for their economy that way?
Certainly, I expect that they are also thinking heavily about what else they can do in their nuclear program, either illicitly or maybe with Russian support. But for now, it looks like Israel's policies vis-a-vis Iran have played out successfully, in part because they are the strongest military game without question in town.
That's where we are right now. Those are the latest headlines, and for the next week we're going to be talking a lot about US elections. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Maduro's dubious Venezuela win leaves Biden with few options
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Plenty of things we could be talking about, but I want to bring up Venezuela, where we just had elections in the last 24 hours, and they were very clearly stolen by Nicolás Maduro, puts the Biden administration in a difficult spot with a clearly failed policy.
It makes US look weak and certainly makes Maduro look strong, but not the outcome anyone wanted, even though it was pretty clearly expected. So there were exit polls, credible exit polls that showed that the unified opposition candidate, Edmundo González, won with at least 60% of the vote across the country, turnout very high, despite it being very difficult to get to a lot of voting spots and clearly with those including from the military and other regime forces that were trying to intimidate people on site, you still had well over 60% of registered voters actually turning out. But it was pretty clear, Maduro saying all the way through it was going to be lots of bloodshed if he didn't win, he was able to fix the outcome that he wanted and announced a win of 51% of the vote. There are very limited details that can back up the claims that they put forward. The Venezuelan government blocked key international observers, including lots of leaders from across Latin America that were unable to either land or deplane in Caracas.
The government impeded the transmission of voting results from a number of polling stations. Over the coming weeks, we’ll clearly see all sorts of additional evidence of irregularities from the opposition testimony of polling station witnesses, paper counts from polling stations that make it clear that this was stolen. And yet, very little is going to happen for a few reasons.
First of all, because the military continues to completely support Nicolás Maduro. And that means the willingness and ability to use force to suppress and repress opposition is very high. Secondly, there have been lots of efforts to engage in anti-government protests over the last decade. And the response has been violence and incarceration. And there isn't a lot of willingness of Venezuelans to continue with that average Venezuelans.
What we've seen instead are millions of Venezuelans that have left the country, fled the country. And that's what we're going to see again. We're going to see a huge amount of emigration. Colombia, of course, is the country that gets stuck with most of it. But there are many of them trying to get to Mexico, trying to get to the United States.
More pressure on a migration policy from the United States, from Biden, from Kamala Harris, that is seen as a failure and is clearly the biggest policy vulnerability that Harris has in her election bid. Also, having said all of this, the United States has been trying to do a carrot and stick approach, saying we're going to remove and reduce sanctions, allow oil licenses if you're willing to go ahead with a free and fair election. And Maduro wants the money, wants to be able to produce more oil and said, “sure, I'll go along,” when he was completely not credible, it was obvious to everyone he was not credible. And now the Biden administration is stuck with a failed policy and yet really doesn't want to put those oil licenses into sanctions, doesn't want to take them away because he doesn't want oil prices to go higher, especially not in an election environment with high inflation.
So what is he going to do? He's going to complain. He's going to say this was a sham, that the Americans support the Venezuelan people, and he'll find some additional sanctions that don't matter as much to put on board while Venezuela and Maduro, the dictator, looks like a winner. This is, unfortunately a bad day for representative democracy, a bad day for US policy, a good day for a dictator in Venezuela.
Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war?
Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war?
Possibly. They will make it harder, a lot harder for the Russians to take or advance on Kharkiv further, which is the second largest city in Ukraine, millions of people near the front lines. And if the Russians were to take it or destroy it, level it, you'd have millions of refugees that would be streaming out and into neighboring countries. Not something anyone in NATO wants to see. That is what is less likely to happen, because the Ukrainians can now hit Russian targeting outside of Ukraine.
How might India's trajectory evolve if Modi secures a third term in office?
Looks certainly very likely he's going to get a third term. That's what we've been thinking all the way through. And another five years means strong economic policymaking. Consistency from a Modi who has wanted to make India more investable, a Modi that has wanted to make India more attractive to partners, multinational corporations, financial institutions all over the world. Having said all of that, he has been much more pro-business than pro-competition. And that, of course, makes ultimately India less attractive as a market participant and certainly for a lot of companies, as India grows than it might otherwise be. Still, you're talking about the fifth largest economy in the world on track to becoming the third, growing at 7-8% a year, from a very low base for the next decade. Modi's leadership in India certainly makes you want to bet more on India, not less.
What is the likelihood that Israel and Hamas will agree to Biden's proposed cease-fire deal?
On balance, I still think it's pretty low, in part because the Israelis are not prepared to accept a shift to a permanent cease-fire until Hamas is destroyed. It's not just about Hamas not being able to engage in an October 7th attack again, as Biden has suggested. And that is an arrangement that Hamas is much less willing to sign on to. So, right now, at least, it seems the overlap between the interests of the two combatants, is not yet at a place where we can see a deal.
US-Ukraine policy under Trump would be similar to Biden's
Harvard Kennedy School’s Stephen Walt suggests that there’s not as much daylight between Biden and Trump as people might think when it comes to US policy towards Ukraine.
As with Trump, Walt argues, “Biden would also be trying to end this war sooner rather than later.” But where Biden would be looking to support Ukraine in securing the best possible deal in a peace arrangement, Trump might abandon Ukraine, forcing them to rely more on European support for security.
"Trump is fundamentally a nationalist and unilateralist” Walt tells Bremmer in a wide-ranging interview, “…whereas Biden is very much a globalist or internationalist."
Watch full episode here: How the US election will change the world
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Biden and Trump's Middle East policies are "almost identical" - Harvard's Stephen Walt
In a candid discussion with Ian Bremmer, Harvard Kennedy School professor Stephen Walt highlights the striking similarities between the Biden and Trump administrations' Middle East policies. "It's hard to see a big change between the Trump administration's approach to the Middle East and what the Biden administration was doing up until October 7." Walt notes that Biden's actions have mirrored Trump's, from failing to fulfill promises like reopening the US Consulate in Jerusalem to continuing Trump's approach with the Abraham Accords.
Despite occasional frustrations and ongoing conflicts in the region, both administrations have maintained strong support for Israel, with little indication of significant policy shifts. Walt also emphasizes the cautious approach of both presidents regarding Iran, suggesting that neither side desires a full-scale conflict, given the complexities and potential repercussions in the volatile Middle East. “For the United States to get involved in yet another large Middle East war seems to me is contrary to our interests, but it's also contrary to most of Donald Trump's instincts.”
Watch full episode here: How the US election will change the world
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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How the US election will change the world
What role will foreign policy play in the upcoming US presidential election? “More than it usually does,” says Harvard Kennedy School’s Stephen Walt in an interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer. “Partly because the economy doesn't seem to be helping Biden as much as it should be, partly because it's hard to look at Biden's foreign policy and tout a lot of big success stories."
In a wide-ranging interview comparing US foreign policy under a second Biden or Trump term, Walt suggests that they may not be as different as people expect. “On a bunch of big issues, the daylight between him and Biden just isn't that great.” It may come as little surprise that Bremmer disagrees.
But Walt says this is especially true in areas like China policy, where Biden's approach has been refined and continued. "The Biden people refined the Trump approach in a number of ways—focused it very much on high-tech—but have if anything, doubled down on the policies that Trump adopted starting in 2017."
And while Walt certainly acknowledges an array of crucial differences between Trump and Biden, he argues that both second administrations may have similar outcomes in areas like the Middle East and Ukraine. That said, he makes clear that while Trump's second term may not drastically change US foreign policy, it could lead to a less supportive stance towards Europe and NATO. "Trump is fundamentally a nationalist, fundamentally a unilateralist, whereas Biden is very much a globalist or internationalist, and that's a key difference.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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