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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves 10 Downing Street in London, United Kingdom, on November 12, 2025.
What We’re Watching: UK’s Starmer on the ropes, Mexico’s Sheinbaum beefs up security in wild West, Hamas fighters trapped in their own tunnels
Is the UK’s prime minister heading for the exit?
Just 18 months after Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a 174-seat majority in Parliament, he’s now clinging to power, with reports that he could be removed when he announces the budget in two weeks’ time. His allies say he will fight any attempts from within the party to oust him. Why is Starmer struggling? The economy is stagnant, he can’t unite his party, and he hasn’t crafted a clear vision for the country amid pressure from both the left and the right. To initiate the removal process, though, 20% of Labour MPs must nominate a challenger. Will any of Starmer’s allies turn on him and run against the PM?
Mexico’s president vs. the narcos of Michoacán
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is facing a major test of her security policy in the cartel-riddled western state of Michoacán, where the recent assassination of a popular mayor has sparked protests. Sheinbaum has sent in an additional 1,000 federal troops, bringing the total deployment to 10,000, and pledged $3 billion to boost security while also tackling poverty and other root causes of cartel power. Since taking office a year ago, Sheinbaum has pursued a harder line against cartels than her political patron and predecessor, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, in part because of heightened pressure from the Trump administration.
Trapped Hamas fighters put Phase 2 of ceasefire in jeopardy
As Phase 1 of Gaza's ceasefire nears its end, 200 Hamas fighters who are not being allowed to leave tunnels in Israeli-controlled Rafah have emerged as a critical obstacle. Hamas wants them to be granted safe passage to Hamas-controlled areas – an idea that US special envoy Steve Witkoff was amenable to in exchange for the terrorist group disarming. However, Israel is reluctant to allow them to go free. Phase 2 negotiations began yesterday, which will require Hamas disarmament, IDF withdrawal, a transitional government, and international peacekeepers. But resolving the tunnel standoff comes first. Even then, documents obtained by Politico reveal Trump administration officials harbor deep doubts about whether both sides will follow through on Phase 2.
Hard Numbers: Typhoon rips through the Philippines, Europe wants more rail, Israel returns bodies to Gaza, Canada’s Carney unveils first budget
85: A typhoon ripped through the Philippines on Tuesday, killing at least 85 people and forcing roughly 400,000 people to flee their homes – many of which are now flooded. The typhoon is set to continue through other parts of Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand.
€345 billion: Europe may be tightening its internal borders, but it’s still pushing its trains: The European Union on Wednesday laid out a €345-billion ($396-billion) plan to slash train times between major European cities over the next 10-15 years. Under the plan, there will be trains that run at 200 kilometers per hour (roughly 125 mph) between each major EU city.
15: Israel returned the bodies of 15 Palestinians to Gaza on Wednesday, as part of ongoing exchanges required by last month’s ceasefire deal. Israeli authorities have now returned 285 bodies since the deal was signed, though it is not clear how many more they are holding. Hamas still holds the remains of seven Israeli hostages.
CA$78 billion: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled his first budget on Tuesday, which includes new infrastructure spending, funds for the military, and major immigration cuts. However, the budget shows a deficit of $78 billion, the second-largest in the country’s history.
A Palestinian Hamas militant keeps guard as Red Cross personnel head towards an area within the so-called “yellow line” to which Israeli troops withdrew under the ceasefire, as Hamas says it continues to search for the bodies of deceased hostages seized during the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, in Gaza City, on November 2, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Hamas returns three more hostage bodies, Tanzanian prez win reelection after quashing opposition, Another earthquake strikes Afghanistan, & More
3: On Sunday, Hamas handed the Israeli military the remains of three more hostages held in Gaza. The militant group said it had found them that same day in some of its tunnels beneath southern Gaza. Israel confirmed that the bodies belong to three deceased hostages, meaning there are now eight unreturned bodies left in Gaza. Returning all the bodies is a key condition for the fragile Hamas-Israel ceasefire.
98%: Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner on Saturday of the East African country’s election with 98% of the vote. Several opposition leaders were barred from running and detained, and the government shut down the internet in the run up to the election in a bid to quash unrest.
6.3: A 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck northern Afghanistan early Monday morning, killing at least 20 people and leaving hundreds injured. The quake also caused a power outage across the country, including in the capital Kabul, as electricity lines running from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were damaged. It’s the second major earthquake to hit Afghanistan in the last few months.
$9.6 billion: Humans’ attention spans are getting short. How short? Chinese media studios are rushing to create “mini-drama” series where each episode lasts two minutes or less. The industry is flourishing, and is forecast to reach $9.6 billion (CN¥68.6 billion) in size this year. This would exceed China’s traditional box office.
Israeli warplanes launched heavy airstrikes targeting an entire residential block near the Al-Sousi Mosque in Al-Shati refugee camp, west of Gaza City. The strikes destroyed a large number of homes, levelling some to the ground. Civil defense and ambulance teams rushed to the scene and are working to rescue victims and recover bodies from under the rubble amidst widespread destruction and significant difficulties in rescue operations due to the ongoing bombardment and a shortage of equipment.
What We’re Watching: Gaza ceasefire wobbles, Far-right eyes win in Dutch election, Trump to meet with Xi
The Gaza ceasefire wobbles, and Hamas “finds” a hostage body
Israeli strikes in Gaza killed 100 people last night, according to local officials, in the deadliest day since the signing of the ceasefire three weeks ago. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation was a response to the killing of an Israeli soldier in the West Bank and Hamas’ failure to return the remains of the last 13 hostages in Gaza – a key condition of the ceasefire deal. Hamas has said it is trying to locate these remains, but Israel released drone footage on Tuesday that appears to show members of the militant group staging the discovery of a deceased captive. Israel said Wednesday the ceasefire was, however, back in place.
Dutch voters head to the polls, as far-right eyes power (again)
Dutch far-right firebrand Geert Wilders, famous for his severe anti-immigrant views and striking blond coif, leads the polls ahead of today’s election in the Netherlands. But even if he wins, can he garner enough seats to form his own government? He couldn’t after the 2023 election, despite his Freedom Party (FVV) coming in first. Two years of unstable conservative government followed. With 16 different parties expected to gain seats, building a coalition after today’s vote won’t be any easier. Still, the election is seen as a bellwether for the political fortunes of the rising right across Europe.
Tomorrow’s the big day: Trump-Xi meeting
US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Forum to discuss tariffs, details of the TikTok sale, and key issues including China’s access to US-made microchips and US access to Chinese rare earths. And a big question: if deals are struck to lower tariffs and restore bilateral technology access, would things look all that different from where they started when Trump first took office back in January, or would we simply be back to that status quo?Children walk through the destruction, as Palestinians try to build tents next to their destroyed homes after returning to Khan Younis, amid the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Gaza ceasefire talks underway as first phase deadline looms
Phase one of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is set to expire Saturday amid uncertainty over whether there’s enough common ground to discuss phase two.
Both sides are sending delegations to Cairo for possible talks, with Qatar and Egypt serving as intermediaries in the US-backed process. This first phase, which went into effect on Jan. 19, included the handover of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Both parties paused hostilities in Gaza, where brutal fighting has destroyed around 70% of the structures and killed at least 48,000, according to Gaza’s health ministry, so people could return to their homes and critical aid could be allowed in.
Negotiations for the second phase, which is meant to include Israeli troop withdrawal from the narrow strip between Gaza and Egypt known as the Philadelphi corridor in exchange for the dozens of remaining hostages, were supposed to start earlier this month but have yet to get underway. Now Israel wants to extend the first phase and secure the release of more hostages without leaving the corridor, which is likely to hamper negotiations for the second phase and beyond.
That raises even bigger questions about Gaza’s future. President Donald Trump has proposed turning Gaza into a “Riviera,” permanently displacing Palestinians, while Egypt wants to rebuild infrastructure, exclude Hamas from government, and keep Palestinians on their land.
Released Doron Steinbrecher embraces loved ones at Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan, Israel, after being held in Gaza since the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, on Jan. 19, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire goes into effect, and three hostages are set free
Following last-minute disagreements over Israeli troop withdrawals and the identities of the hostages to be released, the Gaza ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel went into effect on Sunday.
So far, three Israeli hostages — Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, and Doron Steinbrecher — have been reunited with their families, ending 471 days in captivity following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas. They were the first of the 33 hostages set to be released under the deal — and Israel has agreed to release 1,900 Palestinians from Israeli jails. As of early Monday local time, 90 Palestinian prisoners had already been freed.
Domestic political costs: On Sunday, Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet to protest the ceasefire. He was joined by two other ministers from the far-right Jewish Power party. This leaves Netanyahu with only a slim governing majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Further defection could lead to the government's collapse.
Will the deal hold up? For the first phase, lasting 42 days, the incentives seem well enough aligned to keep either side from breaching the peace. Hamas needs time to reorganize and rearm, which it can achieve by releasing the 33 hostages it has promised throughout the first phase. Netanyahu, for his part, wants to deliver those hostages for voters — but after that phase is over, prospects dim.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem December 27, 2015.
Israeli cabinet meets to vote on Gaza ceasefire
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed on Friday that a Gaza ceasefire deal has been finalized following a “last-minute crisis," and the security cabinet is meeting now to ratify the agreement. Israeli warplanes, meanwhile, carried out dozens of missions in the Gaza Strip on Thursday that left at least 86 dead and dampened the jubilation many Palestinians felt when the ceasefire agreement was first announced.
What was the holdup? Two disagreements with Hamas supposedly caused the delay: One over the precise locations from which Israeli troops would withdraw and another over the identities of hostages due to be exchanged.
Hardliners in the cabinet, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, are expected to vote against the ceasefire but look unlikely to be able to stop it. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday he still expects the fighting to stop as scheduled on Sunday. On Friday, the names of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase were published, with the prime ministers office saying that they could begin being freed as early as Sunday, once the deal is ratified.
Will the deal hold up? For the first phase, lasting 42 days, the incentives seem well enough aligned to keep either side from breaching the peace. Hamas needs time to reorganize and rearm, which it can achieve by releasing the 33 hostages it has promised throughout the first phase. Netanyahu, for his part, wants to deliver those hostages for voters — but after that phase is over, prospects dim.
The putative second and third phases of the ceasefire deal will need to be hashed out while the first is in progress, and the Israeli far right is eager to return to fighting. Ben-Gvir has threatened to resign if the deal goes through, and Smotrich has said he will withdraw if the ceasefire continues beyond the first phase. If they both leave, this could risk the collapse of Netanyahu's government.
“At the end of the first phase of the ceasefire, Netanyahu could face a dilemma in which he is forced to choose between holding his coalition together or maintaining the ceasefire to get more hostages released,” says Farzan Sabet, a Middle East consultant at Eurasia Group. Meanwhile, the Israeli leader would be “under pressure from much of the rest of the Israeli opposition and the public as well as incoming US President Donald Trump.”
How is the wider world reacting? Russia and China’s foreign ministries expressed hope that the ceasefire deal would lead to long-term peace, while British PM Keir Starmer described the deal as “very welcome.” Japan and South Korea both urged a swift implementation of the deal as well, while France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz specifically urged Hamas to release hostages.
Gaza ceasefire likely as Biden and Trump both push
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon?
We've heard this news before. At least five times over the last year that we've heard we were almost at a Gaza ceasefire. This time around though it looks much more likely. Why is that? Because Trump is about to be president, because Trump's envoys and Biden's envoys have been working together on these issues, and also because that means pressing the Israeli government in a way that feels much more serious if you are the prime minister. And also because Trump has been pressing Hamas. And so, I think the unilateralism is there. The fact the deal was already very close, and now this means Biden gets to say he got the deal and Trump gets to say he's ended a war, at least for the time being, and a lot more hostages get freed. So yeah, this time around it looks pretty likely.
What do I make of a potential sale of TikTok to Elon Musk?
Well, it's just been announced that the Chinese are considering it. I always thought that it was more likely than not that if the Supreme Court were to uphold a ban that the Chinese would probably allow a sale to go through. Though they were going to say they were never going to until the last moment because why give up leverage when you don't necessarily have to? So their historic unwillingness doesn't mean to me that they're actually unwilling. To the extent that there is a deal and it goes to Elon, he becomes more powerful, and he also is seen by the Chinese as owing them one. So would he facilitate an improved, a more stable relationship between the US and China? It's an early indication that he could play a role. He hasn't said anything on the China front yet, but certainly you would expect that he would meet with the high-level envoy that's going to the inauguration that Xi Jinping was invited to on the 20th. That's what we should watch in the next week. Okay, that's it for that one.
What does Lebanon's new president mean for Hezbollah?
Weaker Hezbollah, but so much is going to be determined on what Israel decides to do on the ground in the south of Lebanon. Are they staying there for a longer period of time? We've heard news of late that they intend to maintain that occupation in a longer than just couple of weeks, couple of months environment, which makes it harder to keep Hezbollah from starting fighting again. On balance, I think this ceasefire is looking a little shakier right now, even with the new Lebanese president than it had a few weeks ago. We'll see. But if it does break down, the level of fighting won't be what it was a few months ago because Hezbollah doesn't have that capacity and the Iranians can't restock their weapons because Assad has fallen in Syria.