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Firefighters work at the site where a building collapsed following the earthquake, in Hualien, Taiwan, in this handout provided by Taiwan's National Fire Agency on April 3, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Taiwan earthquake, Ukrainian drone strikes, Sisi’s third term, Exodus from Haiti’s capital, Africa’s youngest elected leader
7.4: A 7.4-magnitude earthquake, followed by several mighty aftershocks, struck Taiwan on Wednesday. The quake killed nine people, injured at least 821, damaged buildings and infrastructure, and triggered mudslides. It was the largest to hit the country in 25 years and was also felt in parts of China.
800: Ukraine on Tuesday carried out drone attacks over 800 miles into Russian territory in the Tatarstan region, striking Russia’s third-largest oil refinery and a drone factory. With the war against its next-door neighbor in its third year, Ukraine has ramped up drone strikes inside Russia.
89.6: President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt on Tuesday was sworn in for a third six-year term after being reelected in December against several unknown candidates who never really stood a chance. Sisi, who has frequently been criticized by rights groups over his authoritarian tendencies, garnered 89.6% of the vote in an election victory he described as a rebuke of the “inhumane war” in Gaza.
53,000: The situation in Haiti is dire. Gang violence has led over 53,000 people to flee the country’s capital, Port-au-Prince, in less than three weeks. The UN warned that most are heading to rural areas that don’t have the infrastructure or resources to deal with a large influx of people.
19: From prison to the presidency… Bassirou Diomaye Faye was sworn in as Senegal’s new president on Tuesday, just 19 days after his release from prison. The 44 year old, who was arrested for alleged defamation last year, is Africa’s youngest democratically elected leader. Faye won the election in a landslide and is promising “systemic change.”
Jeong Bo-mi, 37, and her baby in Seoul, South Korea, April 7, 2016.
Hard Numbers: South Korea's baby money, Cobalt and reproductive issues in the DRC, Egypt gets bailed out, Calif. braces amid storms, New Japanese words hit dictionary
75,000: In South Korea, where the overall fertility rate is expected to plummet to 0.68 this year, significantly lower than the 2.1 deemed essential by the OECD for maintaining a relatively steady population, a construction firm is providing employees with a $75,000 reward for every child they have. This initiative is just one of numerous attention-grabbing incentives being introduced as policymakers and businesses contend with the nation's demographic challenges.
56: A study from NGO’s Rights & Accountability in Development and Afrewatch found 56% of respondents in 25 villages near five major cobalt mines reported serious concerns over related health issues, including miscarriages and birth defects. Cobalt production is critical for electric vehicles and batteries and has ramped up over the past decade fueled by the green energy transition.
8 billion: The International Monetary Fund confirmed Saturday it will more than double the bailout loan it is issuing to Egypt to $8 billion, as Cairo’s economy nears collapse with dwindling foreign reserves and soaring inflation. Egypt secured a similarly sized aid package from the EU as well, which will be disbursed over three years.20 million: Some 20 million West Coasters were facing flood watches thanks to a big storm that slammed the Golden State over the weekend. While much of the state faced up to three inches of rain, the foothills of Southern California were expecting up to six. The havoc came just a week after Gov. Gavin Newsom expanded a state of emergency to 11 counties that struggled with powerful storms in early February.
23: The Oxford English Dictionary added 23 Japanese words in its latest update. More than half of the borrowed words relate to cooking, while a number also relate to art like Kintsugi, an increasingly popular way of repairing broken pottery with gold lacquer.
Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin shaking hands with US president Jimmy Carter
On the 45th anniversary of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty, it is more critical and at risk than ever
45 years ago today, a handshake between Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin laid the groundwork for nearly half a century of peace and cooperation between neighboring Israel and Egypt.
The Israeli-Egyptian relationship has survived two Palestinian uprisings and a series of wars between Israel and Hamas, despite Cairo’s early advocacy of the Palestinian cause. And now, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing to send Israeli troops into Rafah, on the Egyptian border with Gaza, Egypt’s peace with Israel puts Cairo in a humanitarian quandary.
What is the Israel-Egypt peace treaty? After fighting five wars over three decades, Israel and Egypt made peace in Washington D.C in 1979, marking the first ever peace treaty between an Arab country and Israel.
The negotiations were the first successful effort at establishing lasting peace between Israel and one of its Arab neighbors. Egypt had lost the Sinai Peninsula to Israel in 1967, providing Tel Aviv with a crucial bargaining chip to secure its southern border and neutralize the region’s most powerful Arab country.
Meanwhile, Sadat’s failed attempt to retake Sinai during the 1973 Yom Kippur War led him to doubt his ability to overcome Israel militarily. But he needed Sinai to reopen the economically crucial Suez Canal, and a major ally to replace the Soviets who supported his predecessor Gamal Abdel Nasser. Negotiations with Israel at Camp David allowed Egypt to regain control over the Sinai peninsula, boost its economy, and bring the US on as an ally.
The treaty has enabled the two countries to make billions in cross-border trade and economic partnerships. Cairo also receives over $1 billion a year in military and economic aid from the US, while it coordinates with Israel in the fight against terrorism in Sinai.
Misery for civilians in Gaza. Even before Oct. 7, Egypt has been concerned that Israel could resolve the Gaza issue at its expense. Since Hamas’s attack on Israel, Egypt has held that a temporary or permanent displacement of Gazans to its territory, whether intentional or unintentional, is not up for discussion.
While Egypt is facilitating humanitarian aid into Gaza, hosting a deluge of refugees would strain its economy, which is already on life-support.
More than 1 million displaced Palestinians are squeezed into tent camps between the border of Rafah and Egypt's thinly populated Sinai Peninsula. Cairo fears that if it were to allow a mass exodus of Palestinians — starving, sick, and desperate as they may be — Israel might never let them go back. Cairo is cautious not to seem like it is collaborating with Israel against the Palestinians — but it also doesn’t want to inadvertently let in Hamas and worsen the insecurity issues in Sinai.
Egypt is building a cement-walled security perimeter near the border to hold up to 150,000 people in case the border is breached during an Israeli assault on Rafah.
The Oct. 7 attack already stalled the peace process between Saudi Arabia and Israel. If an invasion of Rafah jeopardizes the Israel-Egypt relationship, a foundational component of rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world, it would be another strategic win for Hamas at the detriment of the entire region's security.
A volcanic eruption takes place, near Grindavik, Iceland, March 16, 2024, in this handout picture obtained by Reuters.
Hard Numbers: Icelandic volcano erupts, India sets election date, EU aids Egyptian economy, South Sudan schools close amid extreme heat
40: Just 40 minutes after authorities received indications of an eruption late Saturday, lava shot from a huge fissure on the Reykjanes Peninsula near Grindavik and the famed Blue Lagoon. The fourth — and probably biggest — eruption to have hit here since December nearly took services by surprise. The town and resort were both evacuated shortly after the eruption.
960 million: The largest-ever democratic exercise is set to begin on April 19 with a whopping 960 million voters participating in India’s parliamentary elections. Indians will head to the polls for seven electoral phases through June 1, with the count set to take place on June 4. Populist Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to secure another five years at the helm of an increasingly religiously divided India — but one that is also tipped to become the third-largest world economy by 2027. For GZERO’s guide to world elections in 2024, click here.
7.4 billion: The EU has agreed to send Cairo a funding package of €7.4 billion ($8.06 billion) between now and 2027 to help stabilize Egypt’s economy and wean it off Russian gas. The Egyptian economy has been hard hit by recent economic crises – most notably, the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, which is impacting tourism and shipping in the Suez Canal.
113: Children in South Sudan are unable to attend school starting today, owing to an extreme heat wave that could raise the mercury as high as 113 degrees Fahrenheit. All schools have been ordered to shut down, and parents are being advised to keep kids indoors with the scorching temps set to last for up to two weeks.A Palestinian woman reacts to an Israeli airstrike amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, on March 3, 2024.
Israel no-shows Gaza ceasefire talks
On Sunday, Israel boycotted talks in Cairo after Hamas rejected its demand for a list of hostages who still remain alive, though other parties carried on. Hope for a Gaza cease-fire is fading despite earlier US optimism that a deal was possible ahead of next week’s Ramadan deadline.
On Saturday, a US official told reporters that Israel had agreed to the framework of a deal and "the onus right now is on Hamas” to respond. But in addition to the rejected demand for a hostage list, the proposal does not meet Hamas’ main demand for a permanent end to the war, and a Palestinian official told Reuters the deal was ”not there yet” after Hamas officials arrived in Cairo.
Meanwhile, at least 15 children have starved to death in northern Gaza, according to health authorities, raising fears of mass famine. The United States air-dropped aid into the enclave on Saturday, but not at any scale that can solve the problem: The operation dropped some 38,000 meals, while over 2 million Gazans need food. US Vice President Kamala Harris called for Israel to allow more aid into Gaza on Sunday, ahead of a visit from Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz — a visit which could add complications.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly dressed down Gantz — his political rival — over the latter’s “unauthorized” upcoming trip to Washington. Gantz claims his meetings with Harris on Monday and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday will strengthen ties between the two countries and gain support for Israel’s ground campaign.
But Netanyahu loyalists see it as a power play — President Joe Biden’s relationship with Netanyahu is reportedly at a low point – and accuse Gantz of acting like a “Trojan horse.” We’ll be watching his reception in Washington and the reaction in Jerusalem.
Displaced Palestinians take shelter in a tent camp in Rafah.
Egypt braces for Israel’s ground invasion of Rafah
“Egypt remains quite opposed” to housing refugees, says senior Eurasia Group analyst Omar Monieb. It worries that opening the door would undermine security and cause domestic political headaches. Israel’s desire to control the Philadelphi corridor, a narrow buffer zone along the Egypt-Gaza border, also makes Cairo nervous.
Meanwhile, Egypt has boosted border security and is reportedly building a walled enclosure in the Sinai that could house over 100,000 people – perhaps part of a contingency plan?
Reports suggest an offensive in Rafah could see Cairo abandon its 1979 treaty with Israel, which has helped maintain stability between the countries for decades. Egypt’s foreign minister denies the treaty is at risk, but that doesn’t mean the relationship with Israel will remain unscathed.
“Egypt wouldn’t abandon the treaty but will take measures to voice displeasure,” says Monieb, like recalling its ambassador and “freezing security cooperation and information sharing.”
US aid for Israel & Ukraine hangs in the balance
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the House pass the Senate-approved aid package for Ukraine and Israel?
Well, certainly not if the Freedom Caucus and the Speaker of the House have anything to say about it. So, I mean, as of today, what the Senate has passed with a lot of Republicans on board looks dead in the House. But of course, the ability to jam the House and force them to accept something or there's no government funding, that is a game of chicken that we've seen before and the Senate may well continue to be ready to play. So it is not dead yet, but aid is looking challenging. And let's be clear, irrespective of what happens for 2024, it's going to be very hard to get any more aid for the Ukrainians going forward. And everybody is deeply aware of that reality.
How likely will Israel proceed with a ground invasion of Rafah in Gaza?
Well, keep in mind, this is right on the border with Egypt. The Egyptians have said that this will blow up their peace agreement with Israel if they decide to go into that space full on with a ground invasion. There's already been some incursions, including one that freed two hostages held by Hamas. So clearly that has huge support from the Israeli population as a whole. The Biden administration has publicly said that they don't want to see a ground invasion, especially because there are no circumstances, at least not set up yet, that the Palestinians who continue to be forced to move and move and move will be safe in this environment. I think that we are very close to a temporary cease fire and more hostages being released. So part of this is pressure from Israel to get that done. If you made me bet right now, I'd say we actually see the deal first. But that is not going to end eventual hostilities from ticking back up between the Israelis and Hamas in Gaza.
What are the wider implications for the Indonesia presidential election?
More state influence over key industries in the economy. Probably a little bit more willingness to blow out the budget from a fiscal perspective. But the likely winner, Prabowo, his vice presidential running mate, is the son of Jokowi, the president of Indonesia. And that implies first geopolitically, very similar orientation to have balanced relations between China economically but the US strategically. I don't see that changing at all. There is still a big question about whether they're going to move the capital. This has been a massive effort with a lot of money that is at play and it's not clear that Prabowo is as convinced that that needs to be the legacy as Jokowi has been. That'll be worth watching very carefully when he becomes president, for those that care. I do, hope you do, too.
- Stalled deal on US border security leaves Ukraine in the lurch ›
- Poll: American support for Ukraine aid is falling ›
- Hard Numbers: March shows solidarity for Israel, US Army overturns convictions of Black soldiers, US inflation cools, EU falls short on artillery shells for Ukraine, House passes funding bill ›
- Zelensky's US trip likely to secure aid for Ukraine ›
- US aid for Israel: How much and since when? ›
Israeli soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in this handout picture released on January 28, 2024.
Israel and Hamas may be close to a cease-fire. Has the war already spun out?
A drone attack launched by Iran-aligned militants in Syria on Sunday killed three US soldiers stationed in Jordan, even as CIA Director William Burns was in Paris for high-level talks with Egyptian, Qatari, and Israeli officials over a possible cease-fire and hostage exchange with Hamas. The contours of any deal are not yet clear, but The New York Times reported a two-month pause in fighting in exchange for around 100 remaining hostages.
US President Joe Biden spoke with the Emir of Qatar on Friday, and we’re watching for signs that US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk might be dispatched to the region, which could signal a deal is at hand.
“Burns is pushing for some form of a deal that the Qataris can pressure Hamas to accept,” said Ayham Kamel, a Eurasia Group expert on Middle East policy. The Biden administration is reportedly considering slowing weapons shipments to Israel to build leverage on that side of the negotiations.
A cease-fire can’t come soon enough for the approximately 2 million Gazans reliant on aid to survive after fighting has rendered the vast majority of homes unsafe. Over 26,000 have been killed since the start of the conflict, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.
We’re also watching for how any cease-fire plays out among Iranian proxies. Kamel said the attack on US troops amplified the pressure on Washington to seal a cease-fire, and the Houthis targeted a US destroyer with a missile on Saturday. If the fighting stops in Gaza but continues in the Red Sea and Fertile Crescent, it may be a sign the war has already spun out of hand.