Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Can Egypt take the reins on Gaza’s future?
Egypt held a summit in Cairo on Tuesday, bringing together Arab states to forge a path forward for Gaza. The host proposed a $53 billion, five-year plan to rebuild the Palestinian enclave, which has been largely destroyed during the 15-month war between Israel and Hamas. The idea was to rally Arab League countries to fund and support the plan as a counterweight to US President Donald Trump’s proposal to turn Gaza into a Mediterranean “Riviera” and forcibly displace Palestinians from the region.
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi said the new plan was endorsed by Arab League leaders on Tuesday. Attendees are meant to reconvene for further discussion in Egypt next month.
What’s in Egypt’s plan? It calls for keeping Palestinians in Gaza and for an independent Palestinian body — not Hamas — to oversee Gaza during the reconstruction. In the end, there would be housing for 3 million people, as well as an airport, industrial centers, hotels, and other major developments.
But none of this can happen without a sustained ceasefire and a permanent end to conflict in Gaza. Meanwhile, talks about the second phase of the ceasefire have been halted amid disagreements – Israel now wants more hostages released to initiate the next stage of the three-phase ceasefire and is demanding Hamas’s disarmament (a red line for the militant group). The first stage expired Saturday without a clear path forward. In the meantime, Israel has stopped the flow of aid into Gaza, and while the enclave has supplies for now, the stoppage raises concerns about dwindling stockpiles in the weeks ahead.The White House responded to Egypt’s Gaza proposal late Tuesday, saying it did not address the fact that the enclave is uninhabitable and noting that Trump stands by his proposal.
Children walk through the destruction, as Palestinians try to build tents next to their destroyed homes after returning to Khan Younis, amid the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Gaza ceasefire talks underway as first phase deadline looms
Phase one of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is set to expire Saturday amid uncertainty over whether there’s enough common ground to discuss phase two.
Both sides are sending delegations to Cairo for possible talks, with Qatar and Egypt serving as intermediaries in the US-backed process. This first phase, which went into effect on Jan. 19, included the handover of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Both parties paused hostilities in Gaza, where brutal fighting has destroyed around 70% of the structures and killed at least 48,000, according to Gaza’s health ministry, so people could return to their homes and critical aid could be allowed in.
Negotiations for the second phase, which is meant to include Israeli troop withdrawal from the narrow strip between Gaza and Egypt known as the Philadelphi corridor in exchange for the dozens of remaining hostages, were supposed to start earlier this month but have yet to get underway. Now Israel wants to extend the first phase and secure the release of more hostages without leaving the corridor, which is likely to hamper negotiations for the second phase and beyond.
That raises even bigger questions about Gaza’s future. President Donald Trump has proposed turning Gaza into a “Riviera,” permanently displacing Palestinians, while Egypt wants to rebuild infrastructure, exclude Hamas from government, and keep Palestinians on their land.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands as they make joint statements to the press at the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem on Feb. 16, 2025.
Gaza: The battle of the plans
When it comes to the future of Gaza, the only thing regional players agree on is that they don’t agree. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports US President Donald Trump’s vision of an American-controlled “Riviera of the Middle East,” relocating approximately 2 million Palestinians to neighboring countries – a move widely criticized as ethnic cleansing. Egypt is formulating a reconstruction plan that would rebuild Gaza’s infrastructure, exclude Hamas from governance, and ensure Palestinians remain on their land. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is developing an alternative strategy, advocating for Gaza’s reconstruction, a two-state solution, and no displacement of residents.
Who’s talking to whom? US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Netanyahu on Sunday and declared that Hamas “cannot continue as a military or government force … they must be eliminated.” On Monday, the Israeli cabinet met to review “phase two” of the ceasefire with Hamas, and Defense Minister Israel Katz began the process of creating an agency to facilitate the “voluntary” relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. And where would they go? Katz said the Israeli military should prepare land, sea, and air exit options for Gazans to move to “any country willing to accept them.”
Also on Monday, Rubio met with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. A statement issued afterward by the palace made no reference to Gaza, noting only that the two men “reviewed aspects of the bilateral relations between the two friendly countries and ways to enhance and develop them in various fields.”
What’s next? On Feb. 20, Saudi will host a meeting with Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, to discuss Egypt’s proposal – and a “representative of Palestine” could be invited as well. The meeting is a precursor to a larger regional summit on Feb. 27, which may now be delayed for “logistical reasons.”President Donald Trump meets with Jordan's King Abdullah in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, on Feb. 11, 2025.
Israel-Hamas ceasefire may hold. Trump’s Gaza plan? Not so much
While meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah II at the White House on Tuesday, Trump reiterated his intention to “take” Gaza, displace its two million residents to nearby countries, and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”
Middle Eastern states are set to meet in Saudi Arabia to come up with their own plan, which they will present to Trump, but Abdullah was cautious and noncommittal while in the Oval. Later, in a social media post, the king said that during his meeting with Trump he “reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank” and called this “the unified Arab position.”
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, meanwhile, said this week that he will not visit Washington for talks on the Middle East while Trump’s Gaza displacement plan is on the agenda.
But Trump has threatened to cut off crucial US aid to Egypt and Jordan unless they comply. Cairo and Amman each receive about $1.5 billion annually in military and other aid from Washington.
President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Jordan's King Abdullah attend a meeting in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, on Feb. 11, 2025.
Trump and Jordan talk Gaza, ceasefire hinges on hostage release
As for the rest of the population, the monarch said he would “wait for Egypt,” which has been leading negotiations so far, to weigh in. “I think we have to keep in mind there is a plan from Egypt and the Arab countries,” Abdullah said. “I think the point is, how do we make this work in a way that is good for everybody?”
Trump had threatened to withhold aid from Egypt and Jordan unless they receive Palestinians but suggested on Tuesday that “I do think we’re above that.” Trump’s vision for the territory remains unchanged, however: “[W]ith the United States being in control of that piece of land … you’re going to have stability in the Middle East for the first time.”
Meanwhile, in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet unanimously endorsed Trump’s deadline for the release of the remaining hostages: The US president said Monday that all hostages must be returned by Saturday, or “Let all hell break out; Israel can override it.” Trump’s deadline came in response to Hamas saying it would delay the next hostage release, set for Saturday, and accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire.
Who’s gained ground – and who’s lost? According to Eurasia Middle East analyst Greg Brew, Jordan’s placating of Trump was “a win for Abdullah, who depends on US aid, and who has adamantly rejected the idea of displacement. This doesn't mean Trump has given up, only that we shouldn’t expect mass displacement of Gazans to Jordan any time soon.”
And despite Trump’s stark message about the hostages, Brew believes there is still room to maneuver. “It’s possible Hamas and Israel get through this latest impasse,” he says, “but it points to the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the unpredictable role Trump is playing.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stands at attention while armed military personnel from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps parade during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq War in Tehran, on Sept. 21, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Iran’s elite fighters go off the grid, Cognac takes on China, Egyptian weapons flood Somalia, Argentines empty their mattresses, “Noise shouter” wins Kiwi election
800: Some 800 protesters, many on tractors, hit the streets in the southwestern French town of Cognac this week, in a “spirited” display of anger at the possibility of Chinese tariffs on European brandy. Losing the huge Chinese market could cripple the struggling Cognac industry. Beijing and Brussels are locked in a series of trade disputes over European food products and Chinese electric vehicles. The EU on Monday filed a World Trade Organization challenge against China’s recent investigation of European dairy goods.
2: A second Egyptian shipment of heavy weapons has arrived in Somalia, in a move that could stoke simmering tensions between both countries and neighboring Ethiopia. Egypt and Ethiopia are at odds over a major Ethiopian dam across a Nile tributary, while Somalia is angry at Ethiopia’s support for separatists in the region of Somaliland. Against that backdrop, Egypt and Somalia signed a security agreement earlier this year.
8 billion: Since Argentina’s radical libertarian President Javier Milei took office last December, chainsawing his way through government spending and imposing severe austerity measures, the country’s foreign currency deposits have surged by $8 billion. The data suggest growing confidence in his ability to stabilize an economy that has bounced from crisis to crisis for decades, though the upcoming expiry of an amnesty for hidden currency is also part of the story. See our exclusive interview with Milei here.
50,000: With more than 50,000 votes counted, the results are in: The hoiho, also known as the “yellow-eyed penguin,” has won New Zealand’s bird of the year election, seeing off a dark bird challenge from the karure – an all-black species of “goth” robin. The winner, whose name means “noise shouter” in the Maori language, is thought to be the world’s rarest penguin. It is also one of its most endangered, suffering a population decline of nearly 80% over the past 15 years.
Chinese pilots deplane from a JH-7 fighter-bomber in preparation for the 9th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, known as Airshow China 2012, in Zhuhai city, south Chinas Guangdong province, 10 November 2012.
Hard Numbers: China rattles the saber, Egypt’s inflation falls, Japan props up yen, Spain wins Euros
30: Taiwan’s defense ministry recorded 30 Chinese combat jets and seven warships in the skies and waters around the island on Saturday and said it was monitoring “waves” of missile tests in Inner Mongolia province. These are the third large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan this week.
27.5: Inflation rates in Egypt have dropped for the fourth straight month to 27.5%, down from an agonizing 38% peak in September. However, economists warn that fuel, medicine, fertilizer, and natural gas markets remain volatile, and Egypt’s most needy families are smarting from a 300% increase in the price of subsidized bread.
22 billion: A Bloomberg analysis of the Bank of Japan’s accounts found it had likely spent approximately $22 billion propping up the anemic yen, which has lost 11% of its value this year, on Thursday. This would mark the third time the central bank has directly intervened in the currency market — an expensive practice, but Tokyo has few other options while the difference between US and Japanese interest rates remains so vast.
2-1: Spain beat England 2-1 in a thrilling final of the Euro 2024 championship on Sunday, marking their fourth time bringing home the cup. England, the country that invented modern football, has never won. In Miami, Argentina won the Copa America 1-0 against Colombia, but the event was marred by botched security that saw scenes of panic as unticketed fans rushed and overwhelmed barriers.Displaced Palestinians, who fled Rafah after the Israeli military began evacuating civilians from the eastern parts of the southern Gazan city, ahead of a threatened assault, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, travel on a vehicle, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip May 6, 2024.
Hamas accepts cease-fire proposal, but Israel still strikes Rafah
On Tuesday, the Israeli military reported its tanks had rolled into Rafah and established control over the Gaza side of the border crossing with Egypt. The incursion was more restrained than the long-threatened ground invasion was expected to be, likely because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing pressure to agree to a cease-fire with Hamas, which is backed by the United States and Arab nations.
On Monday, Hamas unexpectedly accepted a Qatari-Egyptian cease-fire proposal for Gaza, which Israel says it is examining. The deal would secure the release of hostages still being held in Gaza. But rather than stalling the invasion, the Israeli war cabinet “unanimously decided” to continue with plans for the invasion and launched strikes in eastern Rafah late Monday.
The diplomatic breakthrough – which followed mass weekend protests demanding the Israeli government bring home the remaining hostages held in Gaza – was meant to put pressure on Netanyahu. The United States and other key allies had also been pressuring Israel to refrain from attacking Rafah.
“Netanyahu is trying to have it both ways — continue talks in Egypt by sending a team while proceeding with attacks into Rafah,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. ”The door hasn't closed on a deal yet.”
Israel’s war cabinet said it would continue to work on a deal, sending delegates to Cairo on Tuesday to negotiate aspects it still finds objectionable (the deal’s full details are not publicly known).
We’re watching for Hamas’ reaction to the Rafah attacks and how it affects any longer-term cease-fire prospects.