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Members of the Hargeisa Basketball Girls team wrapped in the Somaliland flags walk on Road Number One during the Independence Day Eve celebrations in Hargeisa, Somaliland, on May 17, 2024.
Why does a US senator want to recognize Somaliland?
Last week, US Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) became the latest American conservative to voice support for Somaliland, as he publicly urged the Trump administration to recognize it as a country.
“Somaliland remains committed to forging closer ties with the US and is actively engaged in enhancing military cooperation, counterterrorism efforts, and economy and trade partnerships,” Cruz wrote in a letter to the White House. “To do so to the greatest effect and the greatest benefit to American national security interests, it requires the status of a state.”
So why is Cruz interested in a small, de facto state on the east coast of Africa?
First, a refresher on Somaliland. Even if you didn’t know already, you may have guessed from the name that Somaliland is formally part of Somalia, sitting in the northern part of the country and bordering Djibouti and Ethiopia.
It was originally a British protectorate, while the rest of Somalia was an Italian one, but the areas were lumped together when Somalia gained independence in 1960. Thirty-one years later, Somaliland separatists helped to depose the Somali military leader Siad Barre, and they seized on the opportunity to declare independence.
The country, now with a population of roughly six million people, has been operating as an autonomous region ever since. In 2001, voters approved the constitution, establishing a democratic state. Though the functioning of the democracy isn’t perfect, opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi won last year’s election and there was a smooth transition of power – not everyone can say that, whether in East Africa or other parts of the world.
However, not a single country has formally recognized Somaliland as a state, drastically limiting what it can achieve financially – it is ineligible for loans from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, even though it is more economically and politically stable than Somalia.
So why is Cruz interested? First, Somaliland’s location gives it strategic importance. It lies along the Gulf of Aden, right next to the narrow Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which nearly a third of the world’s shipping passes. It is also across the water from Yemen – if the US had a presence in Somaliland, it could keep a closer eye on the anti-American Houthi rebels who operate there.
“Somaliland has emerged as a critical security and diplomatic partner for the United States, helping America advance our national security interests in the Horn of Africa and beyond,” Cruz wrote in his letter.
But this is also about China, which Cruz references in his note. Somaliland’s location also puts it in close proximity to the growing Chinese military presence in Djibouti. What’s more, Somaliland’s own claims to independence mirror those of Taiwan, who have become an ally to the de jure nation – a top Taiwanese official attended Abdullahi’s inauguration in December. With China positioning itself as a defender of Somalia’s overall sovereignty of the area, Cruz – and many of his fellow Republicans – wants to be at the other end of that.
There’s just one problem. Somalia and its neighbors are littered with security issues, with extremist groups like Islamic State and al-Shabaab – both Houthi allies – sowing chaos in the region, and wars raging nearby in Sudan and Ethiopia. If the US recognizes Somaliland, it could undermine efforts to keep a lid on violence in the region.
There are two reasons for this. First, recognition could undermine the Somali state’s attempts to root out extremism – the government is already a weak one, and al-Shabaab would use such a move to recruit more foot soldiers, something the Biden administration feared.
Next, the US might find itself on the sidelines in terms of tackling extremism in the area. Washington has worked closely with Mogadishu to limit threats from militant groups, especially al-Shabaab. If it legally approves of Somaliland’s status as a country, it will anger Somalia – and potentially one or two other states – and potentially push Mogadishu to focus on issues outside of counterterrorism.
On top of all this, there is a melange of interests in the Horn of Africa from some Middle East & North Africa countries that the US won’t want to anger. In particular, Egypt is a major ally to Somalia, and Trump wouldn’t want to dismantle his relationship with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, with whom he shares a close bond.
All to say: it won’t be such a “Cruz” in the park for the US to recognize Somaliland.
Enaam Abdallah Mohammed, 19, a displaced Sudanese woman and mother of four, who fled with her family, looks on inside a camp shelter amid the ongoing conflict between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army, in Tawila, North Darfur, Sudan July 30, 2025.
In Sudan, the skies have turned deadly
Drones have become the new face of modern warfare, dominating headlines as Russia and Ukraine trade near-daily aerial strikes.
But unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) are wreaking havoc in another of the world’s deadliest, and least covered, conflicts.
In Sudan, a country of 50 million people in the Sahel region of Africa, a brutal civil war is taking place between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Now drones are exacerbating the crisis.
Back up a second: how did this war begin? The Sudanese Civil War pits two army leaders – Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Dagalo – against each other. While the pair were once allied in ousting Sudan’s long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir, a bitter rivalry between them erupted in 2023, plunging the country into an all-out civil war that has claimed as many as 150,000 lives and left an estimated 14 million displaced. Half of the country is in desperate need of food assistance, and there are reports of an ongoing genocide in the western region of Darfur.
“It’s really the full set of a catastrophe,” says Sarra Majdoub, a Sudan analyst for the UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts. “Everyone is really struggling, the humanitarian needs are huge.”
A growing disaster. With drones now entering the fray, the conflict risks escalating into a dangerous new phase, allowing both sides to keep inflicting damage with minimal risks to themselves.
Ever since the SAF recaptured the capital Khartoum in March, the two sides have been locked in a strategic stalemate, with drones enabling both groups to carry out precision strikes hundreds of miles behind enemy lines.
“There’s this race for militarization and getting more and more weaponry,” says Majdoub.
In May, the RSF launched several drone strikes on the Red Sea city of Port Sudan, where thousands had sought refuge from fierce fighting in Khartoum. The following month, five members of a UN aid convoy were killed in an aerial strike while delivering life-saving assistance to the famine-stricken North Darfur.
How did high-tech drones make it to Sudan? “Drones are often delivered in pieces, disguised as civilian goods or humanitarian aid, and reassembled,” says Dr Andreas Krieg, a Middle East and North Africa expert at King’s College London.
But understanding why UAVs ended up in the hands of SAF and RSF fighters requires a broader look at the region – and the external powers fueling the war.
Situated along the Red Sea, Sudan occupies a strategic geographic position with access to valuable natural resources, including fertile agricultural land and precious minerals like gold. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have invested billions in Sudan’s agriculture sector, while Egypt – which shares a 793-mile border with Sudan – sees its own security as closely linked to its southern neighbor.
“The conflict is geopolitically embedded,” Majdoub adds.
Despite a partial UN arms embargo on Sudan, foreign weapons continue to play a significant role in the conflict.
High-impact UAVs are especially attractive because they can be produced at scale, are low cost, and are easily smuggled through clandestine supply networks.
While analysts like Krieg accuse Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and Russia of helping build up the SAF’s aerial capabilities, several reports suggest the RSF is receiving covert support from the UAE – a claim Abu Dhabi denies.
“We’re seeing the emergence of a new kind of warfare – one in which surrogate forces can be armed and equipped to wage high-tech battles, without ever having to be officially recognized or formally allied,” adds Krieg.
Caught in the crossfire. As foreign powers appear to advance their competing agendas, and drones flood the zone, it is Sudan’s civilians who are bearing the costs.
“Drones have made the war feel omnipresent. They strike without warning, often in places that were once considered safe,” says Krieg. “This sense of constant, inescapable threat has become part of daily life in many parts of Sudan.”
Can Egypt take the reins on Gaza’s future?
Egypt held a summit in Cairo on Tuesday, bringing together Arab states to forge a path forward for Gaza. The host proposed a $53 billion, five-year plan to rebuild the Palestinian enclave, which has been largely destroyed during the 15-month war between Israel and Hamas. The idea was to rally Arab League countries to fund and support the plan as a counterweight to US President Donald Trump’s proposal to turn Gaza into a Mediterranean “Riviera” and forcibly displace Palestinians from the region.
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi said the new plan was endorsed by Arab League leaders on Tuesday. Attendees are meant to reconvene for further discussion in Egypt next month.
What’s in Egypt’s plan? It calls for keeping Palestinians in Gaza and for an independent Palestinian body — not Hamas — to oversee Gaza during the reconstruction. In the end, there would be housing for 3 million people, as well as an airport, industrial centers, hotels, and other major developments.
But none of this can happen without a sustained ceasefire and a permanent end to conflict in Gaza. Meanwhile, talks about the second phase of the ceasefire have been halted amid disagreements – Israel now wants more hostages released to initiate the next stage of the three-phase ceasefire and is demanding Hamas’s disarmament (a red line for the militant group). The first stage expired Saturday without a clear path forward. In the meantime, Israel has stopped the flow of aid into Gaza, and while the enclave has supplies for now, the stoppage raises concerns about dwindling stockpiles in the weeks ahead.The White House responded to Egypt’s Gaza proposal late Tuesday, saying it did not address the fact that the enclave is uninhabitable and noting that Trump stands by his proposal.
Children walk through the destruction, as Palestinians try to build tents next to their destroyed homes after returning to Khan Younis, amid the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Gaza ceasefire talks underway as first phase deadline looms
Phase one of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is set to expire Saturday amid uncertainty over whether there’s enough common ground to discuss phase two.
Both sides are sending delegations to Cairo for possible talks, with Qatar and Egypt serving as intermediaries in the US-backed process. This first phase, which went into effect on Jan. 19, included the handover of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Both parties paused hostilities in Gaza, where brutal fighting has destroyed around 70% of the structures and killed at least 48,000, according to Gaza’s health ministry, so people could return to their homes and critical aid could be allowed in.
Negotiations for the second phase, which is meant to include Israeli troop withdrawal from the narrow strip between Gaza and Egypt known as the Philadelphi corridor in exchange for the dozens of remaining hostages, were supposed to start earlier this month but have yet to get underway. Now Israel wants to extend the first phase and secure the release of more hostages without leaving the corridor, which is likely to hamper negotiations for the second phase and beyond.
That raises even bigger questions about Gaza’s future. President Donald Trump has proposed turning Gaza into a “Riviera,” permanently displacing Palestinians, while Egypt wants to rebuild infrastructure, exclude Hamas from government, and keep Palestinians on their land.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands as they make joint statements to the press at the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem on Feb. 16, 2025.
Gaza: The battle of the plans
When it comes to the future of Gaza, the only thing regional players agree on is that they don’t agree. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports US President Donald Trump’s vision of an American-controlled “Riviera of the Middle East,” relocating approximately 2 million Palestinians to neighboring countries – a move widely criticized as ethnic cleansing. Egypt is formulating a reconstruction plan that would rebuild Gaza’s infrastructure, exclude Hamas from governance, and ensure Palestinians remain on their land. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is developing an alternative strategy, advocating for Gaza’s reconstruction, a two-state solution, and no displacement of residents.
Who’s talking to whom? US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Netanyahu on Sunday and declared that Hamas “cannot continue as a military or government force … they must be eliminated.” On Monday, the Israeli cabinet met to review “phase two” of the ceasefire with Hamas, and Defense Minister Israel Katz began the process of creating an agency to facilitate the “voluntary” relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. And where would they go? Katz said the Israeli military should prepare land, sea, and air exit options for Gazans to move to “any country willing to accept them.”
Also on Monday, Rubio met with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. A statement issued afterward by the palace made no reference to Gaza, noting only that the two men “reviewed aspects of the bilateral relations between the two friendly countries and ways to enhance and develop them in various fields.”
What’s next? On Feb. 20, Saudi will host a meeting with Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, to discuss Egypt’s proposal – and a “representative of Palestine” could be invited as well. The meeting is a precursor to a larger regional summit on Feb. 27, which may now be delayed for “logistical reasons.”President Donald Trump meets with Jordan's King Abdullah in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, on Feb. 11, 2025.
Israel-Hamas ceasefire may hold. Trump’s Gaza plan? Not so much
While meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah II at the White House on Tuesday, Trump reiterated his intention to “take” Gaza, displace its two million residents to nearby countries, and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”
Middle Eastern states are set to meet in Saudi Arabia to come up with their own plan, which they will present to Trump, but Abdullah was cautious and noncommittal while in the Oval. Later, in a social media post, the king said that during his meeting with Trump he “reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank” and called this “the unified Arab position.”
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, meanwhile, said this week that he will not visit Washington for talks on the Middle East while Trump’s Gaza displacement plan is on the agenda.
But Trump has threatened to cut off crucial US aid to Egypt and Jordan unless they comply. Cairo and Amman each receive about $1.5 billion annually in military and other aid from Washington.
President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Jordan's King Abdullah attend a meeting in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, on Feb. 11, 2025.
Trump and Jordan talk Gaza, ceasefire hinges on hostage release
As for the rest of the population, the monarch said he would “wait for Egypt,” which has been leading negotiations so far, to weigh in. “I think we have to keep in mind there is a plan from Egypt and the Arab countries,” Abdullah said. “I think the point is, how do we make this work in a way that is good for everybody?”
Trump had threatened to withhold aid from Egypt and Jordan unless they receive Palestinians but suggested on Tuesday that “I do think we’re above that.” Trump’s vision for the territory remains unchanged, however: “[W]ith the United States being in control of that piece of land … you’re going to have stability in the Middle East for the first time.”
Meanwhile, in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet unanimously endorsed Trump’s deadline for the release of the remaining hostages: The US president said Monday that all hostages must be returned by Saturday, or “Let all hell break out; Israel can override it.” Trump’s deadline came in response to Hamas saying it would delay the next hostage release, set for Saturday, and accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire.
Who’s gained ground – and who’s lost? According to Eurasia Middle East analyst Greg Brew, Jordan’s placating of Trump was “a win for Abdullah, who depends on US aid, and who has adamantly rejected the idea of displacement. This doesn't mean Trump has given up, only that we shouldn’t expect mass displacement of Gazans to Jordan any time soon.”
And despite Trump’s stark message about the hostages, Brew believes there is still room to maneuver. “It’s possible Hamas and Israel get through this latest impasse,” he says, “but it points to the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the unpredictable role Trump is playing.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stands at attention while armed military personnel from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps parade during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq War in Tehran, on Sept. 21, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Iran’s elite fighters go off the grid, Cognac takes on China, Egyptian weapons flood Somalia, Argentines empty their mattresses, “Noise shouter” wins Kiwi election
800: Some 800 protesters, many on tractors, hit the streets in the southwestern French town of Cognac this week, in a “spirited” display of anger at the possibility of Chinese tariffs on European brandy. Losing the huge Chinese market could cripple the struggling Cognac industry. Beijing and Brussels are locked in a series of trade disputes over European food products and Chinese electric vehicles. The EU on Monday filed a World Trade Organization challenge against China’s recent investigation of European dairy goods.
2: A second Egyptian shipment of heavy weapons has arrived in Somalia, in a move that could stoke simmering tensions between both countries and neighboring Ethiopia. Egypt and Ethiopia are at odds over a major Ethiopian dam across a Nile tributary, while Somalia is angry at Ethiopia’s support for separatists in the region of Somaliland. Against that backdrop, Egypt and Somalia signed a security agreement earlier this year.
8 billion: Since Argentina’s radical libertarian President Javier Milei took office last December, chainsawing his way through government spending and imposing severe austerity measures, the country’s foreign currency deposits have surged by $8 billion. The data suggest growing confidence in his ability to stabilize an economy that has bounced from crisis to crisis for decades, though the upcoming expiry of an amnesty for hidden currency is also part of the story. See our exclusive interview with Milei here.
50,000: With more than 50,000 votes counted, the results are in: The hoiho, also known as the “yellow-eyed penguin,” has won New Zealand’s bird of the year election, seeing off a dark bird challenge from the karure – an all-black species of “goth” robin. The winner, whose name means “noise shouter” in the Maori language, is thought to be the world’s rarest penguin. It is also one of its most endangered, suffering a population decline of nearly 80% over the past 15 years.