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FILE PHOTO: A member of Sudanese armed forces looks on as he holds his weapon in the street in Omdurman, Sudan, March 9, 2024.
Famine looms in Sudan
As much of the world focuses on conflicts raging in Ukraine and Gaza, the ongoing war in Sudan has generated what a senior UN official said last week was “one the worst humanitarian disasters in recent memory.”
The numbers speak for themselves. Nearly a year of war between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has killed tens of thousands, forced eight million from their homes, and left more than 18 million people facing acute food insecurity. Some 730,000 Sudanese children are now suffering from severe malnutrition. Famine looms as a real possibility in the coming weeks.
Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo in Juba, South Sudan on October 21, 2019.
RSF calls for a cease-fire in Sudan: peace effort or publicity stunt?
The Rapid Support Forces, the dominant paramilitary group fighting in Sudan, has announced it is open to an immediate, unconditional cease-fire. Sudan’s civil war has displaced nearly 6 million people and killed more than 10,000 since it began in April 2023.
The sides: On one side we've got Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country's army chief and de facto leader since leading the 2021 coup. On the other is his former ally and junta deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti, head of the RSF, a militia that grew out of the Janjaweed death squads that committed genocide in Darfur.
The declaration could be a turning point, but there is also reason to fear it is just a continuation of Hemedti’s publicity tour. When war broke out, he went into hiding for months, spurring speculations he was wounded or dead until he reappeared in a photo-op with Uganda’s president last week. Hemedti then went on to meet leaders of Ethiopia, Ghana, and Djibouti, showcasing his regional backing while trying to position himself as the next leader of Sudan.
In recent months, the RSF has made key territorial gains – including Darfur and the country’s breadbasket, Gezira. Now in control of most of the East and West of the country, it's no wonder that Hemedti thinks that the time is right to come to the negotiating table. The RSF just signed a peace agreement with the pro-civilian group the Taqadum Civilian Coalition and has invited the Sudanese Army to join.
It is unclear, however, whether the Sudanese Army will accept the invitation. Artillery fire between the RSF and the Sudanese Army has been intensifying in recent days, and past cease-fire agreements and negotiations have failed to stop the fighting or protect civilians. If the latest effort is similarly unsuccessful, famine is looming and will likely add to the mounting civilian casualties.
Saudi navy officials help civilians onboard their ship to be evacuated from Sudan.
No truce in Sudan
Fierce fighting between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces resumed on Sunday in Sudan, with the two warring parties accusing each other of violating a fragile ceasefire. The truce was again extended for another 72 hours, but don't keep your hopes up.
As the security situation worsens, foreign countries keep scrambling to get their citizens out. The US, which last week was reluctant to carry out a mass evacuation of Americans, over the weekend changed its mind and dispatched a convoy to Saudi Arabia via Port Sudan. Other foreign nationals were less lucky: A Turkish aircraft came under fire, highlighting how dangerous airlifts have become.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis has gone from bad to worse. Some two-thirds of hospitals in battleground areas of Khartoum are out of service, with medical supplies, health workers, water, and electricity all in short supply. More than 500 civilians have been killed in three weeks of clashes and over 20,000 Sudanese have fled to neighboring Chad.
Former PM Abdalla Hamdok warned that the ongoing conflict could become worse than Libya or Syria. Based on the available firepower and the sheer number of outside players that might get involved, it's certainly no exaggeration.Fleeing Sudanese seek refuge in Chad.
Sudan at risk of biological hazard
As if things weren’t bad enough in Sudan, there’s now growing fear of a biological catastrophe after one of two warring military factions took control of Khartoum’s National Public Laboratory.
The World Health Organization warned Wednesday of a “high risk of biological hazard” at the lab, which stores pathogens like measles and cholera and other hazardous materials.
After militants forced lab technicians to leave, WHO said the situation was “extremely dangerous,” though it wouldn’t say which group – the Sudanese army or the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces – had seized the compound.
The two sides agreed this week to a 72-hour ceasefire that will expire on Thursday night. While fighting has ceased throughout much of the capital, allowing people to leave their homes and access food aid, clashes persist in some pockets of the city.
But things were already dire at NPL and throughout Khartoum’s health system since clashes erupted in the capital almost two weeks ago. At the lab, lifesaving treatments – including blood bags for transfusions – couldn’t be stored properly due to electricity outages. Meanwhile, officials say that 61% of the city’s health facilities aren’t operational due to shelling.
This development comes amid a greater sense of lawlessness in Khartoum after a number of former officials associated with longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir escaped from prison.
The WHO says it is still conducting a thorough risk assessment, but the situation is deteriorating quickly as a tenuous truce frays.
Satellite image shows smoke and an overview of Khartoum International Airport in Sudan.
What We’re Watching: Sudan on the brink, unwanted Ukrainian grain
Army-militia turf war turns bloody in Sudan
Over the weekend, Sudan's slow and bloody transition to democracy was turned on its head by fierce fighting in Khartoum, the capital, and elsewhere between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group. By Monday, almost 100 civilians had been killed along with unknown numbers from the two warring sides in three days of intense battles.
The backstory. The oil-rich North African nation has been mired in instability since the 2019 coup that ousted dictator Omar al-Bashir after 30 years. A transitional civilian-military government was booted in another coup in 2021, followed by mass street protests brutally repressed by the army. The latest deadline for the army to hand over power to civilians lapsed last week — perhaps a clear sign of what was coming.
The players. On one side we've got Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country's army chief and de facto leader since leading the 2021 coup. On the other is his former ally and junta deputy Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti, head of the RSF, a militia that grew out of the Janjaweed death squads that committed genocide in Darfur. Both men had close ties to al-Bashir yet worked together to depose him.
Al-Burhan and Hemedti accuse each other of starting the latest fighting. At the heart of the crisis is their personal rivalry over who will ultimately control the armed forces: Al-Burhan wanted to integrate the RSF within the military in two years, but Hemedti says he needs a decade.
So, what happens now? If the warring parties don't back down, the risk of the conflict turning into a full-blown civil war is real. This comes 12 years after the last one ended with the independence of South Sudan. But even just continued violence will surely worsen an economic crisis spurred by sky-high inflation.
There are a lot of outside interested parties. Russia has long been trying to finalize a deal for a Red Sea naval base in Sudan, while the US doesn't want Khartoum to return to supporting international terrorism. Neighboring Egypt also has close ties to Sudan (both countries oppose Ethiopia's controversial Nile dam), while Saudi Arabia and the UAE also want Khartoum under their sphere of influence.
Sudan is in a semi-permanent state of turmoil and, despite its oil wealth, the economy is a shambles. But its geopolitical and strategic value remains as high as low are the odds of the country returning to democracy in the near future.
Polish/Hungarian friendship with Ukraine has limits
The EU on Sunday rejected bans on imports of Ukrainian grain announced by Poland and Hungary on Saturday. Brussels said that individual member states can't conduct trade policy, although it didn't specify how it would respond if the two countries ignore the call.
Meanwhile, Warsaw and Budapest insist they have to protect their farmers from cheap Ukrainian grain. Most of Ukraine's grain is now exported via the Black Sea, thanks to a deal with Russia brokered by the UN and Turkey. But in the early months of the war, large amounts of cheap Ukrainian grain entered Europe by land and got stuck there because of a lack of trucks to move it to ports.
Kyiv, for its part, is not happy but wants to talk things out with the Poles on Monday. Still, Ukraine is hardly in a position to play hardball with Poland, perhaps its strongest European ally since the Russian invasion. (Hungary, of course, is a different story.)