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Protest in Yerevan following Azerbaijani military operation launch in Nagorno-Karabakh.
UN Security Council debates Nagorno-Karabakh
It was a quieter day at UN headquarters on Thursday. With US President Biden back at the White House – accompanied by Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky – the crowds had thinned somewhat and fewer delegates could be found attending the debate in the UN General Assembly hall.
Much of the focus was on the crisis in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, where this week Azerbaijan launched a fresh assault on ethnic-Armenian separatists there, who then reportedly agreed to surrender and disarm as part of a ceasefire. Azerbaijan now looks set to take control of the enclave that's seen decades of conflict.
(For more on the recent flare up and its historical context, see our write up here.)
This was the focus of an urgent UN Security Council meeting called by the Armenian and French delegation on Thursday afternoon. Though they aren’t currently Council members, both Armenia and Azerbaijan attended the session to voice their grievances.
The focus of the Armenian representative reflected a sentiment that has been heard many times throughout the week, namely, that the UN Security Council is broken.
Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan said that the chamber had failed to respond to previous warnings from Yerevan that the Azeris had been upping their attacks on the enclave. Indeed, this came a day after President Zelensky took aim at the Security Council for falling short of its stated mission by letting Russia torpedo efforts to stop the war. (See GZERO's explainer on Instagram on this ensuing debate.)
Despite Karabakh’s acceptance of a ceasefire, shelling continues, Mirzoyan said. The US, for its part, backed this claim, with UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield telling the Council that the “situation on the ground remains dire.”
What’s on deck tomorrow?
Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu will address the Assembly, along with Dutch PM Mark Rutte, Bangladesh’s PM Sheikh Hasina, and Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is seen on a video monitor in a booth above the United Nations Security Council floor.
Zelensky takes aim at the UN Security Council
It was another big day at the UN General Assembly. Again, much of the attention centered around Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky who attended a prickly meeting at the UN Security Council.
Ukraine, for its part, is not currently a member of the UNSC, but was invited to attend the session where, sitting across from the Russian Ambassador, Zelensky called Russia a “terrorist state.” Zelensky left the chamber before Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sat down, avoiding a potential confrontation.
Still, much of the Ukrainian president’s speech was directed not at the Russian delegation but at the Security Council itself. He joined the chorus of others calling for urgent reform of the powerful body, arguing that Russia's veto power is undermining the Council's mission. “Ukrainian soldiers are doing with their blood what the UN the Security Council should do by its voting,” he said.
While President Joe Biden said this week in his address before the General Assembly that the US supports such reform efforts, it’s hard to imagine that any of the permanent members of the Council that have the veto power– the US, UK, China, Russia, and France – would be willing to dilute their own clout.
Crucially, Zelensky proposed a change to rules that would allow the UN General Assembly – composed of 193 states – to override UNSC resolutions with a two-thirds majority. But as things are currently structured, that vote itself would be subject to … a UN Security Council veto.
Continuing his shuttle-diplomacy efforts, Zelensky met with Chile’s President Gabriel Boric, where he said the two discussed the prospect of coordinating a Ukraine-Latin America summit. Boric’s embrace of Zelensky has been notably different from other Latin American states, including Brazil, Argentina and Mexico, that have in fact abstained from at least one UN resolution condemning Russian aggression.
Finally, Zelensky also met with his German counterpart Chancellor Olaf Scholz in what was broadly seen as an attempt to get Berlin to earmark more military aid for Kyiv.
Another interesting side meeting took place between Biden and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. It was hardly the White House meeting Bibi had been hoping for – particularly after the Biden side released a cool statement saying the two had a “candid and constructive” conversation on issues including “upholding our democratic values.” This was likely a nod to the White House’s disapproval of the Israeli government’s current attempt to gut the power of the independent judiciary that’s led to some of the biggest protests in Israel on record.
Still, in the broader realm of geopolitics it was a pretty good day for Bibi: On Wednesday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave a rare interview to FOX News where he said that Israel and Saudi were inching close to a normalization deal, a huge foreign policy priority for the Netanyahu government.
Clean energy sources amid a futuristic landscape.
The false trade-off between climate action and economic growth
World leaders are flooding New York this week for the 78th United Nations General Assembly and Climate Week NYC, less than two months before the landmark COP28, the UN Climate Change Conference, is set to begin in Dubai. With climate being at the top of the agenda and top of mind, I thought I’d use today’s newsletter to debunk a myth that pervades an annoying amount of climate doomerism.
Most climate change discussions frame the issue in cost-benefit terms. Would we rather save the planet or keep our living standards? Save the planet or increase profits? Save the planet or lift people out of poverty? In other words, how much are we willing to sacrifice to stop climate change?
In rich countries like the US, both sides of the aisle assume this tradeoff between climate action and economic prosperity exists. The difference between them is that most of the political right wants to prioritize growth at the expense of climate action, while the “de-growth” and anti-capitalist parts of the left want to halt growth for the sake of climate action.
Meanwhile, the consensus in developing nations – which today account for two-thirds of global carbon emissions but are only responsible for about one-fifth of historical emissions – is that poorer countries have the right (indeed, the obligation) to put economic development above climate action. This view is also premised on the assumption that economic growth can only be powered by fossil fuels, and therefore, that saving the planet requires economic sacrifice.
But that is a false dilemma. In 2023, there is no longer a systemic trade-off between decarbonization and economic growth.
A technological revolution in the making
The reason for this is that technological advances have made clean energy – especially solar power, wind power, and battery storage – cheaper than fossil fuels.
Until quite recently, high-polluting fossil fuels (especially coal) were by far the cheapest sources of energy available. Renewables didn’t come close. But in the past decade, the unsubsidized price of electricity from solar and wind declined by 89% and 69%, respectively. And the cost of lithium-ion batteries – which are needed to smooth out the intermittent supply of solar and wind energy – has declined by 90%. As a result, new solar power plants have gone from being 710% more expensive than the cheapest fossil-fueled plants in 2010 to being 29% cheaper now, and new onshore wind plants have gone from being 95% more expensive to being 52% cheaper than the cheapest fossil-fueled plants in the same period.
Today, when you compare the lifetime cost of building and operating new power plants, renewable energy sources like solar and wind are already the cheapest options for most of the world. In some places, building new solar and wind plants is even cheaper than keeping existing coal plants running!
This price advantage explains why the world’s largest carbon emitters are quickly moving away from coal and toward wind and solar power, and why renewable power has more than tripled as a share of global power generation in the last decade. In Europe, wind and solar generate more power than coal and gas. And solar, wind, and battery storage account for 82% of planned generating capacity additions in the US this year.
Interests trump politics
A common refrain is that these renewable technologies are being forced on unwilling Americans and Europeans by woke politicians and activists. But ask yourself, why would countries like China and India, states like Texas and Florida, and companies like BP and Total be building so much solar, wind, and battery storage capacity if not out of self-interest?
China and India certainly have little inclination to make national sacrifices for the planet’s benefit. Texas and Florida are Republican bastions — not exactly tree-huggers. And, like all corporations, BP and Total seek to maximize profits for shareholders. If you think Greta Thunberg is pushing developing countries as diverse as Brazil, Chile, Vietnam, India, and Morocco to deploy solar power at scale, I’ve got a coal mine to sell you…
The truth is that the world is adopting clean energy because it’s cheaper than the alternative. Even countries and companies that don’t care about climate change at all are finding it worthwhile to switch to renewables. And thanks to these technologies’ uniquely steep learning curves, the more they get deployed, the cheaper they’ll become, and the cheaper they become, the more they’ll get adopted everywhere.
At the same time that the increased adoption of renewables will reduce carbon emissions and deadly pollution, falling energy prices will lead to a rise in real incomes and standards of living. The advent of cheap, abundant, and widely available energy will free up income for people to spend on other things and allow poor countries to turbocharge their development while leapfrogging fossil fuels. If it sounds like a win-win, it’s because it is.
The invisible hand still needs a policy push
Although technological ingenuity and self-interest are making the energy transition an unstoppable reality, these forces alone aren’t enough to get the world all the way to net zero emissions in time to avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change.
For starters, there are still powerful vested interests and inertia holding back decarbonization, despite its increasingly obvious economic advantages. Many actors with political pull benefit from the carbon-intensive status quo, which generates up to $2 trillion in economic rents every year. These incumbents – ranging from petrostates and Big Oil to retail gas stations and fossil fuel workers – are fighting tooth and nail to slow down the energy transition and latch on to their power. Moreover, fossil fuels still make up 77% of the world’s energy production, and for now the cost of operating existing fossil fuel plants is lower than the cost of building new renewable plants in most (but not all) places. Absent policy action, that will remain the case for some years yet.
Then there’s the fact that electricity – the problem that solar, wind, and batteries solve – only accounts for about 40% of global carbon emissions. Cutting the remaining 60% will require addressing the other sources of emissions: transportation, commercial and residential buildings, and industrial processes. Some of this can be achieved by electrifying more of our energy use – like we are already doing by switching to electric vehicles, heat pumps, and induction stoves – while continuing to decarbonize electricity. But some – such as greening harder-to-abate, heat-intensive processes like cement and steel production – will require investment and incentives to invent, develop, and adopt new technological solutions.
Finally, while switching to renewables pays for itself in the long run, building new infrastructure while retiring fossil-fuel assets early can bring large upfront costs. This problem is especially acute for developing nations, which will generate most of the demand for new electricity in the coming decades but lack the fiscal space and access to long-term finance needed to meet the upfront costs of deploying clean energy systems. It’s in these countries’ economic interest to lock in low-carbon infrastructure now rather than get stuck with fossil-fuel assets that are already being phased out in the developed world and will be stranded in a matter of years. But they will need massive financing from rich countries to do that.
The bottom line is that although there’s a lot governments can do to help speed up the energy transition, even without government action the transition is most definitely happening. And it is happening without a reduction in our living standards. You don’t have to stop driving or ration electricity or eat bugs. Poor countries don’t have to stay poor. The opposite is true: stopping climate change will make most everyone richer.
That’s great news because if the fate of the planet depended on everyone agreeing to voluntarily impoverish themselves, you can bet your sweet bippy humanity would be 100% cooked.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky applauds U.S. President Joe Biden during the 78th Session of the U.N. General Assembly.
UN General Assembly debate kickoff
The UN General Assembly debate, where world leaders are given time at the podium to outline their respective global priorities, launched with a bang on Tuesday.
US President Joe Biden spoke to a jam-packed auditorium where he reinforced the US commitment to Ukraine. He also addressed China directly, saying that Washington does not seek to decouple from Beijing but rather to derisk, and emphasized that managing the ensuing rivalry responsibility was his administration's priority.
Meanwhile, Brazil's leftist President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva kicked off by declaring that “Brazil is back,” which is also notably how Biden couched his victory after defeating Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Further evoking comparisons with the US, Lula noted that “Brazil is reconnecting with itself, with the region and with the world” – a dig at his far-right predecessor Jair Bolonsonaro who isolated many Western allies.
Moving to focus on the international arena, Lula also took aim at “permanent members” of the UN Security Council for “waging unauthorized wars” – a likely nod to both Russia for its aggression in Ukraine and the United States for successive military interventions. Indeed, this sentiment encapsulates Lula’s attempt to position himself as a champion of the Global South and its collective interests. As Ian Bremmer noted in a recent interview with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, Lula has been pushing a message, shared by others, that the war in Ukraine is largely a European problem and the UN should focus on other issues of global concern.
And Brazil is not alone. Other emerging powers – like South Africa and India – have also made clear that they don’t want to choose between the US and Russia, but rather seek constructive relations with both.
It’s precisely this dilemma – that some observers call political pragmatism while others call it bothsidesism – that was the subtext of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s address at the General Assembly.
Wearing his typical olive fatigues, Zelensky seemed more exasperated than at previous global forums – a sign perhaps of his frustration with growing war-weariness, including among allies. The Assembly, it’s worth noting, was also largely empty during his address.
The Ukrainian president will later this week head to Washington amid concerns that Congress might not agree to ratify the White House’s requests to send Kyiv an additional $24 billion in aid. And Kyiv is right to be worried as lawmakers are quite distracted: Republicans are currently wrangling with each other, and with Democrats, on a spending package. If they fail to agree, the subsequent government shutdown would have dire economic consequences.
But Zelensky’s speech took advantage of the global forum. He was mainly pitching to countries in the middle – so-called non-aligned states – that acutely feel the effects of global food disruptions caused by a Russian blockade on Ukrainian ports and Western sanctions on Russian agricultural output. African states, some of which have abstained from previous votes at the UN General Assembly condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, have been particularly hard hit by this supply chain tumult.
On the sidelines of the event, Zelensky met Kenya’s President William Ruto and South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa where, among other things, they discussed the need to resume the now-stalled Black Sea grain deal to ensure global food stability.
Also on the podium on Tuesday was Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi who will be finding an extra $6 billion in the national bank account upon returning home from New York after finalizing a prisoner swap this week with the US that included the release of frozen Iranian oil revenue.
Raisi’s visit, just after the one-year anniversary of the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini that sparked a national women’s and human rights movement – was not without controversy. A large protest attended by some former and current US lawmakers gathered outside the building, calling for the end to the authoritarian Islamic Republic. Though the demonstration was kept away from the UN headquarters by security barriers, the group’s booming chants could be heard well within the grounds.
What’s on deck for tomorrow?
President Zelensky will attend a UN Security Council dedicated to the war waging in his country. More details to follow.
There are two side-conferences to watch as well. The Climate Ambition Summit is meant to revitalize flagging efforts and dampened spirits in the fight against climate change. UN Secretary-General Guterres highlighted it in his recent interview with Ian Bremmer.
The High-Level Dialogue on Financing for Development will also discuss a major factor in climate action, bringing together heads of state and multilateral lenders. The conference aims to untangle some of the financial hurdles toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.
Canada-India relations strained by murder allegation
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What's the future for Canada-India relations amidst the accusation of Sikh leader murder?
Also Canadian citizen, by the way, this is the equivalent of Jamal Khashoggi if he had been assassinated in the United States as opposed to Turkey. It's a big deal. The Canadians have hard intel. They've shared it with all of their top allies. The Americans certainly see it's very credible. This is, frankly, since the Russians invaded Ukraine, US relations with all of their top security partners and allies have only gotten closer and stronger over the last 19 months. This is the single big exception to that. India and Canada, two increasingly strong security partners of the United States with a very major flap. Trudeau called them out directly. There's been, you know, already some diplomats that have been tossed out of each other's countries. Doesn't really matter from an economic perspective. There's very little trade relations between the two countries, but it matters a lot in terms of domestic politics.Indian population in Canada is pretty big, and they have fair political autonomy because they're dominant in a couple of key districts politically. The Indian government views this guy as terrorist that was killed. They also deny it, so they had nothing to do with it. And there's a lot of nationalism. So it's very hard for me to see this getting fixed any time soon. Watch how the Americans respond, because they are between a rock and a hard place in this flap.
Another missing Chinese minister. That's the defense minister. Is this a coincidence or something bigger happening?
Well, we know when we don't hear from ministers for a couple of weeks, we're not going to hear from them going forward. They have been purged. And in this case, it does look like a significant corruption issue, something that the Chinese and the Ukrainians have in common right now, except Ukrainians you still hear from. The Chinese, house arrest or a lot worse. I guess the one positive thing you can say is that with corruption still being a big problem and the Chinese clearing house domestically inside the military, they're not going to be looking to invade Taiwan any time soon. Of course, I didn't think that was going to happen anyway. But there is also the possibility that we could see a breakthrough on US-China defense relations, because this defense minister, one of the reasons the Americans didn't and couldn't see him is because he was sanctioned by the US. That will not likely be true of his successor.
Is Azerbaijan and Armenia on the precipice of full-scale war?
Hard to know whether the Armenians in Armenia will be getting involved, but the autonomous Republic of Karabakh, mountainous Karabakh, 120,000 Armenians inside Azerbaijan. They're in very serious trouble. For years, the Armenians had the upper hand. The Russians were their primary security and defense partner. They had control of their region, also took over Azeri territories, buffer territories, kicked the Azeris out of it. They didn't want to negotiate. Why? They didn't have to. Well, now they do. Now the Russians are in trouble. They're distracted. No one else is going to support them. They're in big trouble. So as a consequence, the Azeris first cut off all the humanitarian aid, cut off the ability to get any food in, any medicine in. And now they've actually invaded. They are in very seriously dire straits. It's a tragedy playing out. And I am hard-pressed to imagine anyone intervening on their behalf. Hate to see it.
Talk to you all real soon.
- What the G20 summit revealed about the Modi Trudeau relationship ›
- Canada accuses India of assassination ›
- Where is China's foreign minister? ›
- China's missing foreign minister is out (of a job) ›
- The Graphic Truth: How do Azerbaijan and Armenia stack up? ›
- Armenia, Azerbaijan & the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis that needs attention ›
- India-Canada standoff heats up while US seeks a compromise - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: Why India-Canada relations are tense over a mysterious murder - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Death and diplomacy: A look at India-Canada tensions with Samir Saran - GZERO Media ›
Youth representative Ayakha Melithafa, speaks during the opening of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Summit 2023, at U.N. headquarters in New York City.
UN General Assembly day one: Not a Vanity Fair event
The first big day of the UN General Assembly proved to be character-building for those who dared to venture outside without gumboots or an umbrella.
The skies above Turtle Bay were tinged in silver-gray as delegates from 193 countries descended on the UN headquarters for the 78th General Assembly.
Monday was something akin to a warm up: Much of the focus in the Assembly hall was on the UN’s lofty Sustainable Development Goals, essentially a global to-do-list, including targets like poverty and hunger eradication. Progress so far, however, has been spotty as only 15% of the goals are even on track.
When asked if he was concerned that the absence this week of some powerful world leaders – like France’s Emmanuel Macron, the UK’s Rishi Sunak and China’s Xi Jinping – would undermine efforts to revive the sagging SDG’s, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres replied sternly: “this is not Vanity Fair … what matters is that [states] are represented.”
While the halls of the UN contain a nervous energy, some heads of state just seemed happy to be there.
Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev appeared unphased by the New York drear, taking time out to get fresh air and take in the view of the East River with his crew, who shared takeaway cafeteria coffees.
Team Germany, on the other hand, was less relaxed. Clad in a navy-blue trench coat in lieu of an umbrella, Chancellor Olaf Sholz, flocked by aides, made a brief dash across the plaza. Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who has a very intense few days ahead of her as debt mitigation efforts are a major theme of the summit – also made her way through the corridors.
But the UN General Assembly isn’t just a Superbowl for foreign policy nerds – many real celebrities also appear in the flesh to champion the organization and its mission.
Fashion mogul Diane von Furstenberg, donned in unpresuming black, visited an exhibition dedicated to showcasing the Sustainable Development Goals. Meanwhile, actor and women’s rights advocate Natalie Portman also braved the rain to discuss the ongoing abuse of women and girls around the world, and “ingrained cultural biases” that subordinate half the world's population. It’s an issue Portman has worked on for many years.
A fellow spectator tried to strike up a conversation as we rubbed shoulders while exiting the panel event: “She [Portman] should have smiled more. She looked angry.” You just can’t make this stuff up ... Welcome to the UN General Assembly in New York City!
The UN will discuss AI rules at this week's General Assembly
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week. I'm in New York. Of course I am, because the United Nations General Assembly high-level meetings are kicking off. They will be all week. And of course, that means incredible amounts of traffic. We can handle that because we've got subway that works and a walkable city.
But what's going to happen this week? Interestingly, I think the most important topic of the week, and it's not because of personal bias, is artificial intelligence. And the reason for that is because, unlike every other topic where people generally know what outcomes they want, they just can't get there. They can't move fast enough. Climate change, for example, ending the Russian war in Ukraine, for example, multilateral finance to support lower developed countries. Moving on the Sustainable Development Goals for human development across the world, which has been slipping with the pandemic and with the Russia war. No, in AI we don't know what people want.
People are trying to understand the space and so bring in world leaders together to have high-level meetings on their beliefs around how to govern AI, what to govern specifically, what the institution should look like, what the priorities should be. Those meetings are the ones I personally think will be most interesting. And the Secretary-General, António Guterres, is very personally focused on it. He has been for several years thinking that post, you know, his efforts on climate change, this is the area that he wants to spend the most time on. The Russia war has made that very challenging in terms of a distraction for everybody at the meeting.
But nonetheless, we're now seeing a significant amount of focus of effort. And I suspect that there'll be a lot of news that comes out of those meetings. Beyond that, we've got President Zelensky in Ukraine, and he, of course, will be here in New York. He'll also be in Washington. He's looking for more support for the counteroffensive, more military aid, which Congress continues to be inclined to provide. Also looking to have better relations with the Global South that has largely sat on the sidelines of this war. And there with the Russians bombing grain and grain infrastructure, a lot of countries that were, you know, basically saying this doesn't apply to me increasingly see that it does. And so, yes, Ukraine's in Europe. Yes, Ukraine's a bunch of white people. Yes, it's true. The developed world doesn't pay as much attention to human rights concerns and invasions and coups that happen in sub-Saharan Africa. But the fact is that this war in Ukraine is causing a lot more hardship for the poorest, the hungriest people in the world.
And that's why what I talked to the Secretary-General a couple of days ago, he said his biggest near-term priority is ending the war. Why? Because until you do that, you're going to have underperformance among the poorest of the world's 8 billion. So that's a little bit of what's going to be discussed this week. I think the G-7 meeting on the sidelines is always interesting, especially because the G-7, the world's wealthy democracies, are more aligned on national security issues than they have been historically.
Not much to be seen from Russia. Foreign Minister Lavrov. His statements are well known. They don't move the needle. And the Chinese foreign minister not here. Why? Because he was in Malta meeting with Jake Sullivan to prepare for the coming Biden-Xi bilateral in November at APEC. Now is traveling to meet with the Russians so that they can prepare for the Xi-Putin meeting coming in a month when Putin travels to China. A lot of focus there, but that means that two of the countries that are most problematic for the United States from a geopolitical perspective, not showing up at a high level here in New York City.
That's it for me. It’s going to be fascinating, it’s going to be busy and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Television media broadcast commentaries as delegates arrive to the United Nations 76th General Assembly amid protests on September 21, 2021 in New York City, USA.
What’s on deck at the UN for Tuesday, September 19?
Our intrepid Senior Writer Gabrielle Debinski is on the ground with our colleagues from GZERO World for the latest updates. Also, if you missed our rundown of the major items on the agenda on Friday, catch up here.
Please note, leaders are listed in the order in which they are expected to speak, but the schedule sometimes runs ragged. You can find a complete schedule here.
Major Speakers on Tuesday
- Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: By tradition, the Brazilian president opens every General Assembly debate. Lula has complained about too much focus on Ukraine at the expense of other global issues, watch for his rhetoric here.
- U.S. President Joe Biden: The only leader from a permanent member of the Security Council who is attending the summit in person, expect lots on Ukraine and appeals for development aid and climate action..
- Colombian President Gustavo Petro: The left-wing leader called for an end to the war on drugs in his first UNGA speech last year — and now cocaine exports are booming.
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Often the belle of the geopolitical ball the past two years, Turkey has played a crucial role in the Black Sea grain deal and is the only NATO member with good ties to Moscow. This one is worth your time.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: With his counteroffensive making slow progress and whispers of “Ukraine fatigue” spreading across Europe and the US, the actor-turned-president is looking to make a command performance to shore up support.
Major Conferences
- Day 2 of the High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development Goals