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FILE PHOTO: Rebel Bamar People's Liberation Army soldiers in full armor marching. April 15, 2023.
Myanmar’s democratic rebels set terms for talks. Will the Junta engage?
An alliance of fighters loyal to the former democratic government and ethnic minority militias has opened the door to talks with the junta in Myanmar over building a civilian-led federal government. The plan comes just ahead of the three-year anniversary of the coup against Aung San Suu Kyi and her brief democratic experiment, and follows three months of successful rebel offensives to take key border crossings to India, China, and Thailand.
What’s the plan? The so-called National Unity Government and its partners outlined six principles they hold to be nonnegotiable. In brief, the military must leave politics and subordinate itself to civilian control, a new constitution representing all stakeholders must be written, and a process of transitional justice must be set up to reconcile the grieving nation.
If the junta agrees, the NUG says it will negotiate “with the responsible leadership of the Myanmar military to terminate military rule and for peaceful transition of power.” If not, it will keep pressing the junta politically and militarily.
Will it work? The military didn’t immediately jump at the opportunity for talks, instead extending an official state of emergency by six months and delaying promised elections again. It’s not unexpected: Even if they struggle to control the border regions now, the feared Tatmadaw forces outgun and outnumber the NUG and any individual ethnic militia.
What’s more, militias from the Three Brotherhood Alliance that did the lion’s share of the fighting to seize those border regions didn’t sign on to NUG’s statement. If the best rebel fighters aren’t aligned on the peace plan, the junta may feel little compulsion to consider it seriously.
That said, officials in foreign capitals have worried that a collapse of the military regime could lead to the collapse of the state and exacerbate violence. Laying out a peace plan publicly – in English as well as Burmese – could be aimed as much at enticing political support overseas as domestically.
Ukrainian service members fire a mortar towards Russian troops outside the frontline town of Bakhmut, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 6, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Battle for Bakhmut, Xi’s diplomatic muscle, AUKUS sub deal
The Bakhmut killing field
Bakhmut, home to about 75,000 people before the war, has become an urban killing field. Western intelligence agencies say up to 30,000 Russians have died or been seriously injured in the fight to take this town. Ukrainian casualties, harder to estimate, are also running high.
Russians appear to be fighting mainly to achieve some victory following months of setbacks followed by stalemate. They also hope the eventual capture of this town can boost their chances of advancing on larger cities in other parts of Donetsk province, though some analysts say they won’t have the manpower or firepower to advance beyond Bakhmut anytime soon. Adding to Russia’s complications, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War argues that the country’s defense ministry has likely pushed large numbers of Wagner Group mercenaries to the deadliest sites of fighting in Bakhmut to reduce the Kremlin influence of Wagner chief and frequent critic of the Russian military Yevgeny Prigozhin by thinning out his force.
Though badly outnumbered, Ukrainian forces have been slow to surrender Bakhmut because they want to inflict as much damage as possible on Russian forces ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in the coming weeks. For now, the killing continues.
Xi’s upcoming Moscow trip
Just weeks after releasing a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, China’s President Xi Jinping is reportedly set to meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow as soon as next week. This would be Xi’s second trip outside mainland China since lifting the draconian zero-COVID policy in December.
Xi, a close mate of Putin’s who has benefited from buying up cheap Russian oil and gas since the war broke out, has sought to position himself as a key arbiter between Russia and Ukraine. He is not known to have spoken directly to President Volodymyr Zelensky since Russia’s onslaught began one year ago, but there are reports that Xi and Zelensky could finally connect virtually next week.
Despite maintaining warm relations with Russia and voting against UN measures condemning Moscow’s aggression, Xi isn’t necessarily a fan of the ongoing war, which continues to put pressure on the global economy and fuel inflation, making it harder for poor debtors to repay their loans to Beijing. What’s more, just days after brokering a diplomatic breakthrough between foes Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing is likely feeling chuffed at the growing perception of its increasing diplomatic clout … at the US’ expense.
AUKUS phase two
Remember the 2021 AUKUS deal between the US, UK, and Australia? That’s the pact that caused France to temporarily withdraw its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra after the three allies signed a security alliance focused on the Indo-Pacific and ditched plans for Australia to buy French-made submarines.
On Monday, President Joe Biden, UK PM Rishi Sunak, and Australia’s Anthony Albanese met in San Diego and took the agreement to the next level by expanding the arms and tech deal. Australia is now set to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the US, and will co-build a new submarine with the UK as it retires its current fleet over the next decade. This is a huge deal, marking the first time the US will share its nuclear technology for these vessels since it did so with Britain in 1958 as part of a defense pact.
The arming of Australia is yet another signal that Washington is expanding its military presence in the Indo-Pacific and that London is positioning itself on a greater collision course with Beijing going forward. Crucially, because Australia will rely on Washington for tech support in operating the US-made submarines, some have expressed concern that Canberra’s military sovereignty could be at risk.
Indeed, it’s a good time to be in the weapons business: Sunak has announced that the UK will ramp up its defense spending by £5 billion over the next two years to deal with a range of national security threats – code for China and Russia.
An unhappy Beijing hit back Tuesday, accusing the three states of "walking further and further down the path of error and danger."
Kushner on Israeli annexation plans: not now
To understand Jared Kushner's comments in a broader context, here are a few things to consider:
What are the settlements? In the 1967 Six Day War, Israel captured the West Bank from neighboring Jordan, and soon after began setting up communities of Jewish settlers on this land. The West Bank is now home to over 400,000 Jewish Israelis, living in settlements among some 1.9 million Palestinians who, in turn, are not considered citizens of Israel and who must regularly pass through Israeli military checkpoints.
Palestinians see the Israeli settlements as an illegal development of land under military occupation, and much of the international community agrees. Defenders of the settlements say they are important for Israel's security, and that they are on land that is historically Jewish.
What would annexation mean? Right now, the settlements are not technically part of the state of Israel. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he wants to change that by annexing them outright. About half of Jewish Israelis support that idea.
Trump's Mideast proposal paves the way for Israel to annex Israeli settlements in the West Bank and to link them with special corridors, leaving the remaining territory for a future Palestinian state. Because some of the outlying settlements would be enclaves of Israel within Palestinian territory, a territorially contiguous Palestinian state would be virtually impossible.
But in his interview with Ian Bremmer, Jared Kushner says that while the Trump administration clearly supports annexation, it also wants Israel to wait until after the upcoming (Israeli) election to move ahead with any annexation plans.
GZERO WORLD with Ian Bremmer airs nationwide on public television Fridays beginning at 11 a.m. ET. Check local listings. The interview will also be published in full on gzeromedia.com on Monday, February 3, at 6 a.m. ET.
Watch more:Kushner to Palestinians: 'Put up or shut up' on peace plan
Read more:Trump's Middle East peace plan isn't meant to be fair
Kushner to Palestinians: 'Put up or shut up' on peace plan
White House Senior Advisor Jared Kushner, author of the Trump administration's newly announced Middle East peace plan, had tough words today for Palestinian leaders who immediately rejected the proposal. In a lengthy interview with GZERO Media's Ian Bremmer, he said that Palestinians have long played "the victimhood card," and that for the first time a "practical, rational plan" is on the table for them. Throughout the interview, Kushner hammered home his belief that the political power of the Palestinian leaders, including President Mahmoud Abbas, has been greatly diminished.
In the conversation, Bremmer presses Kushner on the details on the deal, including the Israeli endorsed map outlining a future Palestine, the challenges of delivering on a promise of $50 billion in funding for the region, and Kushner's own close ties to embattled Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
GZERO WORLD with Ian Bremmer airs nationwide on public television Fridays beginning at 11 a.m. ET. Check local listings. The interview will also be published in full on gzeromedia.com on Monday, February 3, at 6 a.m. ET.
Watch more:Kushner on Israeli annexation plans: not now
Read more:Trump's Middle East peace plan isn't meant to be fair