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A parade participant in a Winnie the Pooh costume waves a Chinese flag before the Lunar New Year parade in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York, U.S., February 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: HK cancels Winnie the Pooh, French torch Bordeaux town hall, Indigenous voice for Oz, Darién Gap crossings soar, CAR hearts China/Russia
0: That's how many Hong Kongers can watch the in-theaters-only slasher film “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey,” after the movie’s distributors pulled it from cinemas. The honey-loving bear has been in the crosshairs of Chinese censors since this photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama went viral almost a decade ago.
1 million: More than 1 million people took to the streets in France Thursday as part of ongoing protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s recently passed pension reform. Images of protesters setting the Bordeaux town hall on fire likely contributed to King Charles III's decision to postpone a visit to the French capital, long known as the City of Love.
46: PM Anthony Albanese unveiled plans for a referendum to ask Australians if they want to include an Indigenous "Voice" — a formal body to offer advice on laws — for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution. If it passes, the change would be Australia's first constitutional amendment in 46 years.
50,000: About 50,000 US-bound migrants crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in January and February, five times more than during the same period in 2022. The surge comes just as the Biden administration is trying to discourage asylum-seekers from making the dangerous journey, for instance, by mandating online applications.
200: About 200 people marched through the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, to show their undying love for ... China and Russia. The timing was curious: days earlier, nine Chinese workers were killed in an attack on a mining site, which a local militant group blamed, without evidence, on mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group.
For background on Putin’s push in the CAR, see here.
Ukrainian service members fire a mortar towards Russian troops outside the frontline town of Bakhmut, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 6, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Battle for Bakhmut, Xi’s diplomatic muscle, AUKUS sub deal
The Bakhmut killing field
Bakhmut, home to about 75,000 people before the war, has become an urban killing field. Western intelligence agencies say up to 30,000 Russians have died or been seriously injured in the fight to take this town. Ukrainian casualties, harder to estimate, are also running high.
Russians appear to be fighting mainly to achieve some victory following months of setbacks followed by stalemate. They also hope the eventual capture of this town can boost their chances of advancing on larger cities in other parts of Donetsk province, though some analysts say they won’t have the manpower or firepower to advance beyond Bakhmut anytime soon. Adding to Russia’s complications, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War argues that the country’s defense ministry has likely pushed large numbers of Wagner Group mercenaries to the deadliest sites of fighting in Bakhmut to reduce the Kremlin influence of Wagner chief and frequent critic of the Russian military Yevgeny Prigozhin by thinning out his force.
Though badly outnumbered, Ukrainian forces have been slow to surrender Bakhmut because they want to inflict as much damage as possible on Russian forces ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in the coming weeks. For now, the killing continues.
Xi’s upcoming Moscow trip
Just weeks after releasing a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, China’s President Xi Jinping is reportedly set to meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow as soon as next week. This would be Xi’s second trip outside mainland China since lifting the draconian zero-COVID policy in December.
Xi, a close mate of Putin’s who has benefited from buying up cheap Russian oil and gas since the war broke out, has sought to position himself as a key arbiter between Russia and Ukraine. He is not known to have spoken directly to President Volodymyr Zelensky since Russia’s onslaught began one year ago, but there are reports that Xi and Zelensky could finally connect virtually next week.
Despite maintaining warm relations with Russia and voting against UN measures condemning Moscow’s aggression, Xi isn’t necessarily a fan of the ongoing war, which continues to put pressure on the global economy and fuel inflation, making it harder for poor debtors to repay their loans to Beijing. What’s more, just days after brokering a diplomatic breakthrough between foes Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing is likely feeling chuffed at the growing perception of its increasing diplomatic clout … at the US’ expense.
AUKUS phase two
Remember the 2021 AUKUS deal between the US, UK, and Australia? That’s the pact that caused France to temporarily withdraw its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra after the three allies signed a security alliance focused on the Indo-Pacific and ditched plans for Australia to buy French-made submarines.
On Monday, President Joe Biden, UK PM Rishi Sunak, and Australia’s Anthony Albanese met in San Diego and took the agreement to the next level by expanding the arms and tech deal. Australia is now set to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the US, and will co-build a new submarine with the UK as it retires its current fleet over the next decade. This is a huge deal, marking the first time the US will share its nuclear technology for these vessels since it did so with Britain in 1958 as part of a defense pact.
The arming of Australia is yet another signal that Washington is expanding its military presence in the Indo-Pacific and that London is positioning itself on a greater collision course with Beijing going forward. Crucially, because Australia will rely on Washington for tech support in operating the US-made submarines, some have expressed concern that Canberra’s military sovereignty could be at risk.
Indeed, it’s a good time to be in the weapons business: Sunak has announced that the UK will ramp up its defense spending by £5 billion over the next two years to deal with a range of national security threats – code for China and Russia.
An unhappy Beijing hit back Tuesday, accusing the three states of "walking further and further down the path of error and danger."
Israelis demonstrate during "Day of Resistance" as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist coalition government presses on with its contentious judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel.
What We’re Watching: Chaos in Israel, Franco-British thaw, Trump's deepening legal woes, Biden’s budget battle
Israel’s unraveling
The situation in Israel continued to unravel on Thursday when protesters against the government’s planned judicial overhaul took to the streets in a national “day of resistance.” In a bid to create a balagan (state of chaos), Israelis blocked the Ayalon Highway, a main artery leading to Tel Aviv’s international airport, to try to disrupt PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s planned trip to Rome (he got out)! Indeed, footage shows police using heavy-handed tactics to break up the crowds, but that didn’t appear tough enough for far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who proceeded to fire the Tel Aviv district commander, decrying police for “not fulfilling my orders.” Israel's attorney general has since ordered the freezing of the police chief's ouster, citing legal concerns. Meanwhile, in a very rare emotional speech, President Isaac Herzog – who holds a mostly ceremonial position and remains above the fray of day-to-day politics – urged the government to ditch the judicial reforms. Crucially, things took a turn for the worse Thursday night when a Palestinian gunman opened fire on gatherers in central Tel Aviv, wounding at least three people. With deepening twin crises at home – a constitutional catastrophe and deteriorating security situation – Bibi is going to have a harder time than ever keeping his discordant far-right coalition intact.
Are French-UK relations back on track?
After years of tension, UK-France relations appear to be on the mend! British PM Rishi Sunak travelled to France on Friday to meet with President Emmanuel Macron for the first summit between the countries in … five years. “It’s the beginning of a beautiful, renewed friendship,” a French diplomat said, which was presumably a dig at former PM Boris Johnson, who butted heads with Macron. What's on the agenda? Maintaining a united front against Russia, post-Brexit fishing rights in the English Channel (see this explainer on the great roe row here) and climate change mitigation. Crucially, they are also focusing on how to tackle an influx of migrants arriving by boat through the English Channel. After Sunak this week unveiled fresh legislation that would ban migrants who enter illegally from applying for asylum, a move broadly condemned as a violation of international law, London confirmed Friday that it will offer Paris a lot of cash to help patrol French beaches, which is where most small boats headed for the UK come from. While this meeting is mostly about showing the world that relations are warm and fuzzy, the timing is still a bit awkward: On Monday, Sunak will appear in San Diego along with President Joe Biden and Australian PM Anthony Albanese to unveil the next stage of the AUKUS agreement, the trilateral security pact that incensed the French who were pushed to the side.
Trump may soon face criminal charges
Is an indictment looming? Manhattan prosecutors offered former President Donald Trump the opportunity to testify before a grand jury that’s looking into his business dealings, including alleged payment of hush money to adult film star Stormy Daniels. The offer to testify – most potential defendants decline – usually signals that an indictment is about to drop. Trump is expected to steer clear of the grand jury, but his lawyers will be fighting in his corner and meeting with the District Attorney’s office in a bid to dodge criminal charges. If they fail, Trump may become the first former US president to face indictment – and the NY-based case could be just the start. District Attorney prosecutors in Georgia are also investigating and expected to bring charges against Trump for alleged interference in the 2020 election, while federal prosecutors are investigating his bid to undermine the election outcome. Whatever happens, No. 45 says he will stay in the 2024 presidential race, and experts say there’s nothing legally barring him from running, even if he’s convicted.
Biden’s budget blast
The US president on Thursday unveiled a $6.8 trillion budget proposal that would beef up the military, protect and expand social programs, and slash the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade. How? By raising a slew of taxes on wealthier Americans (those who make more than $400 grand a year) and slapping a 25% tax on the wealth of billionaires. The budget as it currently stands has no chance of passing the GOP-controlled House — Speaker Kevin McCarthy immediately slammed the budget as “unserious” — but Biden knows that. The proposal is an opening salvo in what will be a bruising battle with Republicans, who say they want a balanced budget in order to raise the debt ceiling but have yet to produce a viable plan of their own. As Biden eyes 2024, that fiscal fight — in which he’ll highlight his progressive spending priorities — will be one of the cornerstones of his campaign.What We’re Watching: Australia’s climate bill, Ukraine’s progress, Sweden’s election
Australia passes climate bill after a decade
The Australian parliament has passed its first piece of climate legislation in over a decade just months after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of the center-left Labor Party came to power vowing to prioritize climate change mitigation efforts. The bill – supported by the Green Party and independents but not by former PM Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party – passed the Senate (and is all but assured to be passed by the lower house). It includes a commitment to slash greenhouse emissions by 43% from 2005 levels by the end of the decade. For context, the US emission reduction goal for 2030 is 50%, Canada’s is 40%, and the UK’s is 78% by 2035. Although the new target is an improvement from the former conservative government’s 26%, critics say the bill doesn’t go far enough to offset Australia’s large carbon footprint. Australia is the world’s second-largest exporter of coal and relies on coal for 75% of its electricity consumption. The Albanese government has notably not banned new coal and gas projects – lucrative Australian exports – which some say could make this 43% target hard to meet. Still, after years of government foot-dragging, many Aussies are hailing this progress four months after a general election that was seen in large part as a referendum on climate (in)action.
US sends more weapons to Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelensky has worked hard to persuade Ukraine’s allies, particularly in Washington, that his country’s fighting forces are a good bet and a sound investment. For now, he has succeeded. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Thursday that the US will send Ukraine an additional $675 million in military supplies to help its forces repel Russia’s invasion. Included in the new package will be more “HIMARS,” the “High Mobility Artillery Rocket System” that Ukraine has already used to great effect against Russian targets. In addition, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday during a surprise stop in Kyiv that the US will send another $2 billion in long-term military support to Ukraine and 18 other countries threatened by Russia’s military. Total US help for Ukraine has now topped $13.5 billion. Austin noted that the US would put its money where its mouth is for the “long haul,” and Blinken argued that a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the country’s south was “proving effective.” Washington is also delivering a message to Russia: Don’t expect US military backing for Ukraine to end anytime soon.
Sweden votes with far-right jitters
Swedes head to the polls on Sunday for what is expected to be a close election. The ruling center-left Social Democrats and the opposition right-of-center Moderates are running neck and neck in the polls, with the far-right Sweden Democrats a close third. Social Dem chief Magdalena Andersson — who last November became Sweden's first female PM after her predecessor abruptly resigned — heads a shaky four-party coalition and is relatively popular but faces a strong challenger in Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson, a centrist who claims he can unite the right. But that won't be easy if the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats come out on top. The campaign has focused on a recent uptick in gang violence linked to immigration in a country where 20% of the population was born abroad. Now, the Swedish far-right wants to change the laws to bar almost all asylum-seekers — especially from Muslim countries. Whatever happens, the vote will not affect Sweden's bid to join NATO, since the ruling party was the only one that initially opposed membership but ultimately caved to popular demand amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Australia's new government: shake up at home, steadiness abroad
Anthony Albanese, Australia’s newly elected prime minister, hasn’t wasted any time since being sworn in on Monday. After taking the oath of office, he immediately boarded a flight to Tokyo to meet with Australia’s Quad partners – India, Japan and the US – to talk China.
Indeed, the unusually hasty political transition was not lost on President Joe Biden, who quipped that “if you fall asleep that's okay” – a nod to Albanese’s campaign trail hangover and/or jet lag. But Albanese fought the urge to nap because he has a jam-packed agenda, which includes bilateral meetings with Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Fumio Kishida as well as Biden.
Albanese, the son of a single mum who grew up in public housing in Sydney, takes the reins as the country’s economy is still reeling from the enduring pandemic. What does the election of his center-left Labor Party mean at home and abroad?
The view from home: A massive shakeup
Albo didn’t win; ScoMo lost: The 2022 federal election will go down in history as a watershed. The Labor Party’s victory ended a decade of conservative rule under the Liberal-National coalition headed by Scott Morrison. It’s only the fourth time since World War II that Labor has won an election while serving in opposition.
Still, the results were hardly a ringing endorsement of Albanese’s blah vibe and light-on-detail policy agenda: just one-third of the Australian electorate cast a ballot for the Labor Party, less than it scored in 2019 and a record low for an incoming government.
The teal wave. To be sure, Labor picked up seats and managed to make gains in some traditionally safe Liberal electorates. But the biggest political shift is reflected in the rejection of the dominant mainstream political parties in favor of half a dozen independent candidates – mostly professional women backed by a pro-climate group – in urban areas where the Liberal Party hemorrhaged support.
This phenomenon – dubbed the teal wave because they appeal to fiscal conservatives (blue) who care about climate change (green) – saw moderate women, some of whom have traditionally been aligned with the Liberals, campaign on a more ambitious climate agenda. They also criticized the incumbent party’s macho-brand of politics, whereby it has long failed to nominate women to safe seats or implement gender quotas.
This was a broad rebuke of the Australian political system. For years, both major parties had been accused of sexism and belittling women within their ranks, but the issue was certainly worse within the Liberal Party, a boy’s club that failed to elevate female leaders. A slew of terribly managed sexual assault allegations also contributed to perceptions that the government was woefully out of step with evolving societal expectations about promoting gender equality.
What’s more, the Senate will now be 57% female, while 37% of the House of Representatives will be represented by women, up from 48% and 29% respectively.
Climate. The number one issue for Aussie voters in this election was climate change (30%), followed by the cost-of-living crisis (13%), and the state of the economy (13%). Morrison, who made only tepid commitments to reduce carbon emissions despite the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calling out Canberra for its “lack of consistent policy direction” on the issue, didn’t heed warnings that Aussies wanted him to show greater commitment to the climate and less love for coal.
While Labor’s vague climate agenda is only slightly more ambitious – they aim to mitigate carbon emissions by 43% by the end of the decade compared to the Liberals’ pledge of 26%, while also refusing to ditch coal exports – the party hasn’t adopted the Liberal Party’s notoriously combative stance to the climate conscious community.
“Australian men and women have sent a very clear message to our parliament that we are absolutely committed to addressing the perilous state of climate change,” says Carol Schwartz, founding chair of the Women’s Leadership Institute of Australia.
“We have also sent a clear message that we demand that women’s voices be heard alongside those of men and that we share power, decision-making, and leadership equally,” she says.
The view from abroad: (Mostly) the same.
Australian politics are mostly immune from the sort of globalist v. isolationist tug-of-war seen in the US and Europe. As such, we’re unlikely to see much daylight between Albanese and his predecessor on major foreign policies. For instance, Australia signed on this week to the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a new push by the Biden administration to expand the US’ economic clout in the region.
Despite recent warnings from Chinese state media that he better play nice, Albanese has made clear that he will continue his predecessor’s tough-on-China stance, and work with Washington and other allies to counter Beijing’s bellicose activities in the region. Still, he has shown a willingness to chat with his Chinese counterpart in hopes of improving the relationship in exchange for Beijing ditching trade bans on Aussie goods. (Xi Jinping, however, doesn’t take kindly to ultimatums.)
The ongoing row with China is certainly top of the agenda at the Quad summit, particularly as China’s foreign minister also plans this week to visit the Solomon Islands. This comes just a month after Beijing signed a security pact with the Pacific state, which raised fears that China could be seeking to build a military base on Australia’s doorstep.
Indeed, Canberra and Washington are extremely concerned about China’s ongoing courting of other Pacific islands, like Kiribati. Though it has a meager population of just 120,000 – and a name few people have ever heard of – Kiribati’s strategic positioning midway between the Americas and Asia (and vast fishing resources) make it fertile ground for a great power showdown.
Jump! High high? Whatever the Biden administration wants from Australia – which has long followed Uncle Sam into battles far and wide – you can be sure that PM Albanese will acquiesce.
Ukraine war dominates Davos discussions
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60 from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Is the Russia-Ukraine war dominating the conversation in Davos?
Yes, it is. There is only one side of the conversation here. Not true globally, but in Davos, there are no Russian delegates. And I mean, frankly, pretty much every single person attending is saying as much as they can in favor of Ukraine. You see a lot of people kind of dressing the part and certainly you're in Europe. And so as a consequence, the fact that this is a war in Europe that ends the peace dividend, it's been topic number one, topic number two, topic number three. Kept me pretty busy, frankly.
Are tensions between China and the United States escalating with Biden's recent pledge to defend Taiwan militarily?
It's kind of the third time he's already said this and it's the third time that the White House has walked it back. I think it's more important this time around because he did it in Asia and he also did it in response to a pointed question saying in the context of Ukraine, what about Taiwan? And he talked for a bit about it. He is like, "yeah, if it came to that, then we'd definitely defend them." That of course, is not official US policy. In the past, Biden's advisors have been privately kind of happy that he's making it seem like the United States has a more aggressive posture, especially because inside domestic US politics, that is generally speaking a popular position. Don't want to see Biden is soft on China. The reality is the United States doesn't need this position right now, especially because on the back of the United States leading a much stronger coalition in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Russian military not doing well, the fact is that Ukraine, there are lessons for the Chinese and Taiwan that are actually going relatively well for the United States. So why would you cause this trouble? I suspect the Chinese will be much cooler diplomatically over the course of the coming weeks.
How will Australia's new prime minister reshape its politics?
Frankly, on foreign policy, not so much. Strong member of the Quad, strongly supported the United States on Russia, for example. But when I think about the future, I would say climate change is the one big 180 that we're going to see in Australia's role globally. This is a country that had been focusing more on coal, had been one of the biggest, not climate deniers, but certainly slow moving in terms of renewability. Now you have a prime minister that wants to make Australia into a climate change superpower. That is an enormous issue that has been exercising, the Australian people dealing with massive droughts, for example, for a long time now. And it's a place that you'll see a little bit of positive movement in what's otherwise going to be a very challenging COP summit coming up in Sharm el-Sheikh later this year.
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Albanese addresses supporters in Sydney after winning Australia's election.
What We’re Watching: Australia elects new PM, Poland hearts Ukraine, Saudis stand by Russia
Albo takes over in Oz
After his Labor Party won Saturday's parliamentary election, Anthony Albanese, known popularly as Albo, is set to become Australia’s new prime minister. But it remains unclear whether Labor has a parliamentary majority: if his party falls just short in the end, it'll be a minority government, so Albanese will need some support from the Greens and climate-focused independents to get laws passed. In a gesture toward both, Albanese announced Sunday that he wants to make Australia a renewable energy superpower — a sharp departure from Scott Morrison, aka ScoMo, his coal-loving conservative predecessor. While mail-in ballots are still being counted, Albanese was sworn in Monday as acting PM in order to attend the Quad Summit in Tokyo on Tuesday. Albanese will need to hit the ground running because Australia is also in the AUKUS security partnership, which China doesn’t like one bit. Just weeks after Beijing inked a deal with the neighboring Solomon Islands that'll allow the Chinese to gain a military foothold in the Pacific, expect the China question to continue dominating Australian foreign policy under the new government.
Poland has Ukraine's back
On Sunday, Polish President Andrezj Duda became the first foreign leader to address the Ukrainian parliament since Russia's invasion began. The political moment was hardly surprising, given that Poland is hosting the bulk of Ukrainian refugees and, more importantly for Kyiv, is lobbying aggressively for the EU to fast-track Ukraine's application to join the bloc ASAP. Duda said he hopes the European Council will formally accept Ukraine as a candidate on Wednesday because those who "shed their blood" for Europe must be respected, "even if the situation is complicated, even if there are doubts." Still, Polish efforts have run into stiff opposition from France, whose EU affairs minister estimates it'll take Ukraine a couple of decades to gain EU membership. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that while he wants to end the war through diplomacy with Russia, he won't agree to give up any territory in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces are intensifying their assault in Luhansk, one of the two territories that make up the contested Donbas region.
Russia gets leverage from OPEC
For years, Saudi Arabia — the world’s top oil exporter, OPEC heavyweight, and traditional US ally — has dealt with Russia’s production through OPEC+, the larger group of oil-producing economies. But despite Western sanctions against Moscow, Riyadh has indicated that it will still continue to stand by Moscow as a member of the powerful alliance. With Russia increasingly isolated, its oil production falling, and an EU ban on Russian oil in the pipeline, Brent crude, the global benchmark, was being priced at about $112 a barrel last week, a 10-year high. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has been shunned by the Biden administration, has refused to lower oil prices, and along with regional ally UAE, has been pushing for a more balanced position on Russia. Expected to expire in about three months is a set of production quotas for OPEC+, which would leave open space for Russia to continue to produce, and sell, more oil.
This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
Joe Biden speaks during a joint news conference with South Korean President Yoon Suk-youl in Seoul.
In Asia to fix imbalance, Biden talks both guns and butter
In his first presidential trip to Asia, where he is visiting South Korea and Japan as well as huddling with Quad partners, Joe Biden isn’t expected to sign any major trade deals or defense agreements. But America’s commander-in-chief is going to be in China’s neighborhood, shoring up new and old alliances in the region, reminding Beijing that checking the PRC is very much on Washington’s agenda, despite the administration’s attention being taken up by domestic politics and the war in Ukraine.
Shadows loom. Just before Biden arrived in South Korea, China announced war games in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. The military exercises will continue through most of his visit. Meanwhile, amid reports of North Korea’s plans to conduct a missile or even a nuclear test (the country’s first since 2017) during the trip, South Korea announced there could be a schedule change if Pyongyang engages in “provocation” (the possibility of a nuclear test has been assessed as “low” by Seoul, but that of an ICBM test launch is “imminent”). Reiterating that he’s ready for contingencies, and reflecting the frustrating position that his administration finds itself in for restarting talks with Pyongyang, Biden had a succinct message for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un: “Hello. Period.”
Fixing an imbalance. With its military bases and assets deployed across the region, the US continues to exert significant strategic influence. But the US approach to Asia has been critiqued as lopsided and for being too military-centric and not focused enough on trade, especially since the US has lost commercial traction there since opting out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal during the Trump years.
Hoping to change that, Biden’s economic agenda is underscored by his itinerary: His first stop on the five-day trip was a Samsung semiconductor factory in Pyeongtaek, South Korea. Tackling supply chain disruption with the help of the South Koreans is an essential agenda item, but so is getting their business. Biden met with the boss of auto giant Hyundai, another South Korean company that has gotten presidential praise for investing in the US, especially in electric vehicle jobs.
To regain economic traction, Biden will launch the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework as a possible alternative to the TPP — now called CPTPP — but without the unfettered trade and tariff breaks. A framework is not a trade agreement — it’s an agreement about an agreement — and with midterm elections looming and political pressures at home from the liberal, pro-worker wing of his party, it’s unclear how much market access the IPEF will offer to TPP-dominated Asia. Some of America’s traditional partners and allies will surely sign the IPEF, but reports suggest the framework won’t amount to much, at least not at this stage. Biden’s IPEF invitation list doesn’t yet feature Taiwan because including the self-ruled island claimed by China wouldn’t go down well in Beijing.
Reassuring allies is the diplomatic theme of the trip, for many US partners were spurned by the Trump administration’s “America First” approach. But choosing to visit South Korea before America’s more senior partner in the region, Japan, is Biden’s tip of the hat to newly elected President Yoon Suk-Yeol, a conservative who is considered a hawk on ties with China.
Yoon’s government has backed the US in sanctioning Russia, and while his predecessor refused to take sides in the confrontation between the US and China — Washington is Seoul’s only military ally, but Beijing is its largest trade partner — the new president has clearly said that he supports a rules-based “free and open” order in the Indo-Pacific. Yoon has even suggested that the Quad, the security partnership between the US, Japan, India, and Australia, be expanded to include South Korea, and is pushing for increased military exercises.
However, Biden’s also hoping to do some bridge-building — ties between Tokyo and Seoul have worsened, and Biden has stressed that improving the trilateral relationship between the US, Japan, and South Korea is “critically important.” He’ll also break the ice with Australia’s new PM Anthony Albanese, whose weekend victory with promises to restore liberal values Down Under is being compared to Biden’s own election.
There’s also clear signaling to an increasingly assertive China. Biden will re-connect with the Quad — the dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the US dubbed derisively by China as a possible “Indo-Pacific NATO” — on the last day of his trip. This is expected to be a show of unity against Beijing’s recent muscular moves: The PRC’s plans for a military base in the Solomon Islands have triggered the US and Australia to declare that they're open to military options to deal with a potential Chinese military threat, even as Chinese troops continue to harden their positions in the heights of the Himalayan territory disputed by India. They’ll also discuss illegal maritime practices by China, convergences on the Ukraine crisis, the global food shortage, and the question of how to deal with a strategically autonomous India, which has yet to condemn Vladimir Putin’s actions or cut trade ties with Moscow. Delhi also recently banned wheat exports, further spiking global food prices.
“The Ukraine crisis is clearly an albatross around the neck of the Quad, in the sense that India knows that the issue will continue to be discussed within the Quad,” says Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center.
But the Quad is unlikely to push PM Narendra Modi’s government for a tougher stance against Moscow. Instead, Kugelman says, the Quad’s focus is likely to be on humanitarian concerns, where all members are in alignment, and other shared interests, such as pushing a vaccine production plan, exploring emerging technologies and clean energy, are on the menu.
Staring down China, winning over friends old and new, but not in a position to trade much, Biden’s Asian business trip is part blitz, part bluster.
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