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Migrants trek through the Darien Gap towards the border with Panama.
Sexual assault spikes in the Darién Gap
Crossing the remote, dense jungle is dangerous enough, but now the migrants face a worrying uptick in sexual assaults against women and children. Médecins Sans Frontières has documented nearly 400 sexual assaults there this year, as armed gangs exploit the record number of migrants crossing the jungle. Due to the stigma around sexual assault, fear of perpetrators, and concern that reporting will delay the journey north, the real number is likely far higher. Most of the violence is occurring on the jungle’s Panama side, which lacks the drug cartel that acts as a police force on Colombia’s side of the border.
In August, communication between Panama and Colombia fell apart after they failed to reach a deal to regulate their border. Talks have not resumed, with both countries pointing the finger at the other to take the lead. Yesterday, the US Department of Homeland Security announced it would send a team to Panama, but solely for training purposes. With no sign of a drop in migration, the fear is that the perils facing migrants are becoming normalized as governments fail to address the crisis.A parade participant in a Winnie the Pooh costume waves a Chinese flag before the Lunar New Year parade in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York, U.S., February 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: HK cancels Winnie the Pooh, French torch Bordeaux town hall, Indigenous voice for Oz, Darién Gap crossings soar, CAR hearts China/Russia
0: That's how many Hong Kongers can watch the in-theaters-only slasher film “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey,” after the movie’s distributors pulled it from cinemas. The honey-loving bear has been in the crosshairs of Chinese censors since this photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama went viral almost a decade ago.
1 million: More than 1 million people took to the streets in France Thursday as part of ongoing protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s recently passed pension reform. Images of protesters setting the Bordeaux town hall on fire likely contributed to King Charles III's decision to postpone a visit to the French capital, long known as the City of Love.
46: PM Anthony Albanese unveiled plans for a referendum to ask Australians if they want to include an Indigenous "Voice" — a formal body to offer advice on laws — for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution. If it passes, the change would be Australia's first constitutional amendment in 46 years.
50,000: About 50,000 US-bound migrants crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in January and February, five times more than during the same period in 2022. The surge comes just as the Biden administration is trying to discourage asylum-seekers from making the dangerous journey, for instance, by mandating online applications.
200: About 200 people marched through the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, to show their undying love for ... China and Russia. The timing was curious: days earlier, nine Chinese workers were killed in an attack on a mining site, which a local militant group blamed, without evidence, on mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group.
For background on Putin’s push in the CAR, see here.
The Graphic Truth: How does El Salvador's prison rate stack up?
El Salvador made headlines in recent days after President Nayib Bukele released photos of gang members being corralled into the country’s new mega-prison – a sprawling complex that will eventually hold 40,000 inmates. It’s the latest development in Bukele’s massive – and very popular – crackdown on gangs, in which Salvadoran authorities have locked up almost 2% of the adult population. (Never mind that US officials have recently accused Bukele of colluding with the very gangs he says he’s trying to stamp out!) El Salvador now has the highest prison rate per 100,000 people in the world – but how does that compare globally? Here we take a look at the countries with the highest official prison rates.
A demonstrator holds up a mock mouse head during a protest against inflation in Panama City.
What We're Watching: Panama protests, US-Taiwan drama, Russia-Ukraine grain deal
Protests paralyze Panama
In yet another example of how inflation caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine is stoking social upheaval around the globe, the Central American country has been paralyzed for weeks by protests over the high cost of food and gasoline. The demonstrations began in late June, fueled by footage of lawmakers partying with $340 bottles of whisky, and they have continued despite the government’s move to lower gasoline prices over the weekend. Now, with highways partly shut by protesters, food, and fuel shortages are worsening, and the government is rationing electricity to parts of the country because fuel trucks can’t get through. For decades, Panama has been relatively stable, owing to revenue from the Panama Canal and the fact that its currency is pegged to the US dollar. But as the Panamanian salsero Rubén Blades once noted, life is full of surprises: the pandemic crushed GDP by nearly 20% in 2020, and the recovery has been slow, with the jobless rate remaining above 12%. Meanwhile, inequality ranks among the highest in the region, and activists say corruption is rampant, even though the country returned to democracy in 1990 after Uncle Sam’s heavy metal ouster of dictator Manuel Noriega.
So, is Pelosi going to Taiwan or not?
Two days after the Financial Times reported that Nancy Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan next month – the first US House speaker to do so in 25 years – President Joe Biden said the Pentagon thinks it’s a bad idea. The still-unconfirmed trip has ruffled feathers in China, which regards the self-governing island as part of its territory — right as Biden and Xi Jinping are scheduling their next Zoom call, their first since March. We don’t know for sure, but perhaps Biden was kept in the loop and is coming out against the planned trip to throw Xi a bone ahead of the meeting. Either way, this all comes on the heels of growing love for Taiwan from US lawmakers on both sides of the aisle and follows Biden's own gaffes, ahem, strong-worded statements about the US defending Taiwan from a future Chinese invasion. Beijing, for its part, is likely as confused as we are by the mixed signals about an issue that, importantly, triggers China like no other.
Russia & Ukraine break bread
Lots of good food news lately. Turkey has announced that Ukraine and Russia will ink a UN-brokered deal on Friday to resume grain exports by sea from Ukraine's Black Sea ports (they agreed in principle last week, but this time it's for real). Until Russia invaded Ukraine, the two sunflower superpowers were among the world's top exporters of grain and cooking oils, and Russia was a major fertilizer supplier. Still, it'll take a while for the huge backlog of shipments — presuming this all goes smoothly — to reach destinations in Africa and elsewhere. The two sides could also nix the agreement at any moment if things get dicey on the battlefield. That said, the deal is definitely a step in the right direction, and more cheap fertilizer alone could help ease food inflation worldwide, not to mention 2023 harvests. For complete coverage of the global food crisis, check out our Hunger Pains project.Trump speaks during a campaign rally when he was US president in Jacksonville, Florida.
What We’re Watching: GOP mulls Trump 2.0, UK leadership race heats up, energy crisis could get worse
Republican voters divided on Trump 2024
US Democrats seem to have soured on President Joe Biden, but are Republicans ready to turn their backs on former President Donald Trump? The short answer is: it’s complicated. A fresh New York Timespoll shows about half of GOP voters don't want Trump to run a third time in 2024, but the other half do. The main takeaway is that Trump's once-formidable hold over the Republican Party has waned somewhat since (tumultuously) leaving office in January 2021, yet he still wields considerable influence with the base. Since hardcore Trump fans are more likely to turn out for primaries, he has been busy endorsing candidates for November’s midterm elections, so far with mixed results. The big test for Trump's stature within the GOP will be whether his picks can win in the general — especially the battle for control of the Senate, which Republicans are eager to flip (and only need one seat to do so). Meanwhile, there's growing chatter that Trump may announce his reelection bid before the midterms, which he hopes will freeze a potentially crowded GOP field in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is now gaining on him.
Tory succession race narrows
The race is on to select the UK’s next prime minister following Boris Johnson’s tumultuous tenure. His resignation on Friday launched the search for a new leader of the Conservative Party. Eight candidates are vying to replace him: Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat, Nadhim Zahawi, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, and Jeremy Hunt. Each has passed the first hurdle of getting at least 20 Tory MPs to endorse them — Johnson notably declined to back a possible successor so as not to hurt anyone’s chances. While the list confirms the ambitions of frontrunners like Sunak and Truss, it surprisingly did not include prominent figures Priti Patel and Sajid Javid. The most challenging steps are still to come, starting with the first round of voting on Wednesday in which all 358 Tory MPs will cast their first ballot, with subsequent votes held this week and next until the list is whittled down to two. Hustings will be held nationwide in August, before roughly 160,000 Conservative Party members vote by mail to choose the winner who will be named on Sept. 5. So much for a quiet British summer.
The worst-ever global energy crisis
Russia’s war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions have made a difficult energy situation worse, and there is no end in sight. “The world has never witnessed such a major energy crisis in terms of its depth and its complexity,” the head of the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. “We might not have seen the worst of it yet.” We’re already seeing fallout in the form of energy shortages and higher costs for both consumers and businesses, with economic and political consequences in every region of the world. The impact on Sri Lanka’s economy explains what all those protesters were doing in their president’s swimming pool last weekend. It explains eight days of protests in Panama, where demonstrators forced their government to lower fuel prices by 24%. It’s why European leaders are now racing to fill their inventories of natural gas to at least 80% capacity by November to prevent Russia from making the tough coming winter much tougher. And it’s the primary reason US President Joe Biden is in Riyadh this week to shake hands with a crown prince whose kingdom he once called a “pariah.”What We’re Watching: Draghi’s gamble, new hotspot for US-bound migrants, Russia-Ukraine water wars
"Super Mario" takes his chances: Less than five months after becoming Italy's consensus prime minister, Mario Draghi's coalition government is on shaky ground over Draghi's proposed judicial reforms. "Super Mario" — as he's known for saving the Eurozone as European Central Bank chief during the financial crisis — wants to dramatically speed up Italy's famously slow courts. But his push to reduce judicial backlogs is opposed both by the populist 5-Star Movement, the coalition government's biggest party, and by prosecutors because many cases could be scrapped before reaching a verdict. Draghi, upset that this resistance is stalling his other initiatives to cut Italian red tape, has decided to roll the dice anyway: he'll put his plan to overhaul the courts to a no-confidence vote in parliament. If Draghi wins, he gets the reforms passed without debate; if he loses, the PM technically has to resign, but he'll keep his job because he has enough votes even if the 5-Star Movement bows out of the coalition.
Colombia suddenly a US migration hotspot: US immigration from Latin America significantly slowed in 2020 due to the pandemic. But that's all changed as land borders have reopened. In recent weeks, a record number of migrants have attempted to cross the Darien Gap — dangerous rainforest terrain that straddles Panama and Colombia, and a major crossing point for South Americans trying to reach the US. (Many people die while making the precarious journey; often they are attacked either by wild animals or targeted by gangs.) Panama says 42,000 US-bound migrants have crossed into the country this year alone, up from 8,594 in all of 2020. Meanwhile, the Colombian border town of Necoclí is stretched to its limits, with 1,000 migrants arriving daily, overwhelming its scarce resources and fragile infrastructure. What's more, US authorities are reporting a surge in migration from conflict-plagued Haiti and Cuba. It's a massive concern given that many Latin American countries are experiencing explosive COVID outbreaks.
A liquid flashpoint in Crimea: As a peninsula surrounded by waves, Crimea doesn't leap to mind as a place that lacks for water, but the saltiness of the Black Sea is nothing compared to the latest local acrimony (paywall) between Russia and Ukraine — this time over precisely that: water. After Russia illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, the Ukrainian government cut off a Soviet-era canal that supplied 85 percent of the region's fresh water. Moscow, a little breathlessly, says that this amounts to an attempted "genocide", and is struggling to figure out how to provide drinking water to the more than 2 million residents of the peninsula, most of whom are very happy to be part of Russia again, even if it leaves them a little dry. Kyiv meanwhile is worried that Russia's thirst for Ukrainian territory isn't slaked just yet, and that in addition to backing a separatist enclave in the country's east, the Kremlin might make a move on some nearby rivers that could supply Crimea.