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The next frontier of warfare: Russian space-based nukes
Maybe Russia should’ve been invited to Munich after all … News dropped on Thursday that Moscow is developing new space-based nuclear weapons.
Could these new nukes hit American cities? No, according to the White House. But they could hit satellites, wreaking havoc on terrestrial communications, transportation systems, and even financial transactions. In other words, Russia could take cyberattacks to a higher level, literally.
While China and the US also have the ability to attack satellites, neither has gone nuclear with it. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 explicitly bans the use of nuclear weapons in space. Russia seems not to be paying much heed to that old scrap of paper.
But more dangerous still, the rupture between Moscow and Washington over Ukraine has left the world’s two leading nuclear superpowers with almost no dialogue or treaty limitations on nuclear weapons at all.
That vacuum is now about to extend into space itself.
Comeback kid: Japan’s moon lander resurrected by the sun
Now that Slim is no longer sun-deprived and is back in business, the lander will analyze rocks on the lunar surface in the hopes of learning more about the origin of the Moon. “Science observations were immediately started with the multi-band spectral camera,” the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency said in a tweet.
It’s not clear precisely how long Slim will operate, but it’s not designed to survive a lunar night – and the next one kicks off on Thursday. Either way, the spacecraft has already managed to land itself in the history books.
Slim, which stands for Smart Lander for Investigating Moon, made Japan the fifth nation to land on the Moon when it touched down on Jan. 20. Lessons learned from its mission – particularly the success of its precision landing technology – could prove useful in future exploration of the Moon.
Hard Numbers: Malaysia backs Hamas, Democrats win key races, fighting in Ethiopia's Amhara region, South Africa’s highway terror, Europe invests in space
77 billion: Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim jeopardized his country’s $77 billion trade relationship with the United States this week by coming out hard in support of Hamas, with which Malaysia has long maintained ties. Anwar, who compared the group to Nelson Mandela, could run afoul of the Hamas International Financing Prevention Act and invite US sanctions on his country — but the rise of the Islamist PAS party and the fragility of his multi-ethnic coalition are pushing him to appeal to such sentiment despite his reputation as a liberal reformer.
3: Democrats won three major off-cycle elections in the US last night, taking the Kentucky governorship, keeping the Virginia state senate, and winning a ballot measure in Ohio to protect abortion rights. The wins come despite weak poll numbers for President Joe Biden, and seem to reinforce the view that GOP overreach on abortion helps turn Democrats out on voting day. For more on the long term consequences, read Eurasia Group expert Kylie Milliken's take.
3,000: Fighting between federal troops and local militias in Ethiopia’s Amhara region has displaced 3,000 people in recent months, according to the Ethiopia Human Rights Commission. From 2020-2022, Amharan troops helped the government to put down a rebellion by militants in the Tigray region, but since then they have refused orders to integrate with national security forces. As a result, government forces have begun cracking down on people suspected of supporting the Amharan militias.
280,000: South Africans suffered 280,000 carjackings between April 2022 and March 2023 (the latest period for which statistics are available) amid an epidemic of violent crime on the roadways that recently ensnared the country’s transport minister. More shocking: The figure for 2021/22 was even higher, with carjackings totaling 330,000.
340 million: France, Germany, and Italy agreed to jointly put up €340 million ($365 million) annually for European space exploration company Arianespace to launch its Ariane 6 rocket at least four times per year and another lighter launcher at least three times. The investment is intended to make Europe’s space sector more competitive with American firms like SpaceX.Hard Numbers: Muddy festival, climate credits, Ukrainian amputees, astronauts return, "Barbie" tops charts
70,000: An unexpected storm this weekend trapped 70,000 attendees of the annual counter-culture Burning Man festival in the Black Rock Desert of northern Nevada, as floods turned the sand to mud. One person reportedly died, but officials said the incident was “unrelated to the weather.” Many have now begun their trips home.
450,000,000: At the first-ever African Climate Summit in Kenya, the United Arab Emirates committed to buying 450,000,000 of carbon credits from the Africa Carbon Markets Initiative. The initiative seeks to boost Africa's carbon credit production 19-fold by 2030.
20,000: According to the Superhumans Center for rehabilitation in Ukraine, 20,000 Ukrainians have become amputees since the start of the war with Russia. These include soldiers and civilians, with most injuries being blast-related.
4:Four astronauts returned to Earth in a SpaceX capsule after spending six months in the International Space Station. The crew included two NASA and one Russian astronaut, as well as the first astronaut from the United Arab Emirates to spend an extended time in space.
1: This week, "Barbie" beat the "Super Mario Bros. Movie" for the title of number one film of the year. The dynamic doll pulled in $1.38 billion globally, overtaking the cartoon character’s $1.36 billion. Sparkle!
Fly me to the moon – or maybe not
Russia’s first lunar mission in 47 years made contact of the wrong kind this weekend when its Luna-25 spaceship crash-landed on the surface of the moon. According to the Russian space program Roscosmos, the craft, also called the Luna-Glob-Lander, “switched to an off-design orbit” before it met its demise.
Luna-25’s failure presents a serious setback for the Russian space program. The robotic craft was supposed to journey to the moon’s underexplored south pole and study the atmosphere for one year. It was also supposed to pave the way for future lunar exploration, including a possible joint mission with China, and restore Roscosmos' tattered reputation: It last landed a craft on the moon at the height of the Cold War.
What went wrong this time? Moon landings are notoriously tricky, but apparently, the Russians were also “having a lot of problems with quality control, corruption, with funding,” according to Victoria Samson, Washington director for Secure World Foundation, which advocates for the peaceful exploration of outer space.
To compound Russia’s chagrin, Roscosmos’ credibility will take a further hit if the Indian Space Research Organisation makes a successful landing of its Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft on Wednesday. India launched a moon-bound rocket and rover back in July with the hope of becoming only the fourth country to do so after the US, China, and Russia. If it successfully lands on the south pole, the 1.4-billion-strong country will go a long way toward establishing itself as a major player in today’s space race.
The future of space: congested and contested
Listen: Space might be a big place but the United Nations regards it as ‘congested, contested and competitive’.
This latest episode of Next Giant Leap, a podcast produced by GZERO Media in partnership with the space company MDA, explores the threats and tensions as space becomes busier and of greater strategic importance for an increasing number of countries.
“We have to avoid, by all means, that it becomes a Wild West,” says Tanja Masson-Zwaan, a space law expert at Leiden University in the Netherlands. She adds, “We have regulations, laws and treaties that have been in place for the last fifty years, but we need more to govern this new frontier of space utilization, because the rules that we have are basic principles and do not go into the details.”
Satellites are now being deployed to Low Earth Orbit at a rate of thousands every year. This zone of space is already littered with old defunct satellites and the remains of discarded sections of rockets which have accumulated over more than five decades. The risk of collisions is increasing, raising fears of a runaway cascade of space debris.
Tests of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons have showered still more debris into Low Earth Orbit. Since 2007, China, the United States, India and Russia have conducted ASAT tests. Last year the United States announced its own moratorium on ASAT tests and, through a United Nations resolution, it has called for other nations to follow suit. So far China, Russia and India have not signed up. So is space set to become a new theater for conflict and weapons proliferation?
“Look at how satellites have become embedded in our way of life,” says Kevin Whale, senior director of defense strategy at MDA. “If we wreck space, it’s almost one step down from nuclear catastrophe”.
Within a few years, a new phase of the space race will begin. Both the United States and China will be competing to get people to the moon and exploit its resources, particularly water ice in craters at the lunar south pole.
According to Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, “The Outer Space Treaty says space is the province of all mankind, meaning it's open to usage really by everybody. On the other hand, the principles say we should avoid harmful interference. And so the question is, how do we go about balancing those two imperatives: open to everybody but avoid harmful interference?”
Tanja Masson-Zwaan
Tanja Masson-Zwaan
Deputy Director, International Institute of Air and Space Law, Leiden University
Dr. Tanja Masson-Zwaan is Assistant Professor and Deputy Director of the International Institute of Air and Space Law at Leiden University, and President Emerita of the International Institute of Space Law. She currently also serves as Vice President for Science and Academic Relations of the International Astronautical Federation. Tanja advises the Dutch Government and other institutions on space law issues and was co-founder of the Hague International Space Resources Governance Working Group. She teaches at universities worldwide and is Global Faculty at International Space University.
Scott Pace
Scott Pace
Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, George Washington University
Dr. Scott Pace is Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Director of the Space Policy Institute, Director of the Institute for International Science and Technology Policy and Director of the MA International Science and Technology Policy program at the George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs. His research interests include civil, commercial, and national security space policy, and the management of technical innovation.
Between 2017 and 2020, Dr. Pace served in the White House as Deputy Assistant to the President and Executive Secretary of the National Space Council. He previously served as the Associate Administrator for Program Analysis and Evaluation at NASA from 2005 to 2008 and Deputy Chief of Staff for the NASA Administrator from 2002 to 2003. Prior to his work at NASA, he was the Assistant Director for Space and Aeronautics in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
Kevin Whale Credit: MDA
Kevin Whale
Senior Director of Defense Strategy, MDA
Kevin Whale is the Senior Director of Defense Strategy at MDA. In collaboration with business area leaders and teams, Kevin leads the development, adaptation, and execution of MDA’s pan-corporation global defense marketplace strategy for business advancement.
Brigadier General (retired) Whale served in the Royal Canadian Air Force for 36 years achieving flight qualifications on Kiowa, Twin Huey, Griffon, and Apache helicopters delivering tactical aviation mobility, reconnaissance, and aerial firepower effects to Joint warfighters. In 2017 he transitioned to space capabilities force development, readiness, and operations leading the Canadian Armed Forces Joint Space program and then as an exchange officer with the US Space Force.
Kevin Fong. Credit: Anthony Cullen
Dr. Kevin Fong (host)
Professor, Department of Science, Technology, Education and Public Policy (STEaPP) at University College London
Kevin Fong is a senior emergency care physician and anesthesiologist in the UK’s National Health Service. He is also an expert in space medicine and has worked as a researcher in NASA’s human spaceflight program in Houston. He is also a broadcaster who has hosted many radio and television shows, and podcasts on space flight and exploration. They include the BBC hit podcast ‘13 Minutes to the Moon’.
The satellite revolution in Low Earth Orbit
Listen: In the last twenty-five years, the number of active satellites orbiting the Earth has increased from about 500 to 8,000. “In the first quarter of this year, we deployed nearly 1,000”, says space industry analyst Carissa Bryce Christensen. She adds, “Instead of a smaller number of very large satellites mostly far away, we are seeing many, many small satellites very close in.”
The latest episode of Next Giant Leap, a podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and the Canadian space company MDA, explores the exponential increase in satellites that are being launched into Low Earth orbit (LEO). This is the zone of space between about 100 and 1200 miles above the Earth.
By the end of the decade, MDA’s Chief Executive Officer Mike Greenley predicts there will be tens of thousands of LEO satellites. Many of them will be the component parts of vast satellite constellations, such as the Starlink network, offering broadband internet. Others will be providing the services which the modern world has come to depend upon: GPS navigation, defense and security reconnaissance, weather forecasting, and remote environmental monitoring. For example, Earth Observation satellites are now the most important source of information on the pace and impacts of climate change.
Our satellite eyes in low Earth orbit have become extremely sensitive, according to Professor Martin Sweeting, founder of the UK company Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. Some of them are now able to resolve objects less than one foot in size from hundreds of miles above. Artificial intelligence is now being harnessed to process and interpret the vast amounts of data gathered by the new generation of satellites.
Carissa Bryce Christensen. Credit: BryceTech
Carissa Bryce Christensen
Founder and Chief Executive Officer, BryceTech
Carissa Bryce Christensen is the Chief Executive Officer and founder of BryceTech companies in the US and the UK. She previously co-founded defense company The Tauri Group and quantum computing software company QxBranch. Ms. Christensen is an internationally recognized expert on the satellite and space industry, known for rigorous analysis and innovative, data-driven strategy. She co-chairs the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Space, and chairs the US board of the UN-affiliated Space Generation Advisory Council.
Mike Greenley. Credit: MDA
Mike Greenley
Chief Executive Officer, MDA
Mike Greenley has been the Chief Executive Officer of MDA since 2018. Founded in 1969, MDA is an international space mission partner and a robotics, satellite systems and geointelligence pioneer. Mr. Greenley oversees more than 2,700 employees across Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. Mr. Greenley has over 25 years of experience in the defence and security business. Mr. Greenley is the Vice-Chair of Space Canada and recently served as the Vice-Chair of the Government of Canada’s Economic Strategy Table for Advanced Manufacturing.
Professor Sir Martin Sweeting
Professor Sir Martin Sweeting
Founder and Executive Chairman, Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd
Professor Sir Martin Sweeting pioneered rapid-response, low-cost and highly capable small satellites, utilizing modern consumer electronics devices to change the economics of space. He is widely regarded internationally as the ‘father’ of small satellites which have changed the nature of the space industry. He is distinguished professor of space engineering at the UK’s University of Surrey. In 1985, he founded the university spin-off company, Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd which has designed, built, launched and operated in orbit nano, micro and mini-satellites for communications & Earth observation, as well as navigation payloads for the European Galileo constellation. Sir Martin is Fellow of the UK Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering.
Kevin Fong. Credit: Anthony Cullen
Dr. Kevin Fong (host)
Professor, Department of Science, Technology, Education and Public Policy (STEaPP) at University College London
Kevin Fong is a senior emergency care physician and anesthesiologist in the UK’s National Health Service. He is also an expert in space medicine and has worked as a researcher in NASA’s human spaceflight program in Houston. He is also a broadcaster who has hosted many radio and television shows, and podcasts on space flight and exploration. They include the BBC hit podcast ‘13 Minutes to the Moon’.
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Artemis and the lunar economy
Listen: There is a big difference between NASA’s current Artemis program and its Apollo program of five decades ago. This time, there is a long-term plan for humans on the moon. “We don't want to just touch it and come back and say we're done. We want to go there and stay there,” says NASA astronaut Raja Chari. He adds, “To do that, we need to go where there's resources.”
In the latest episode of Next Giant Leap, a podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and Canadian space company MDA, Raja Chari tells host Kevin Fong that the most valuable known resource on the moon is water ice, which could be used to sustain life in lunar bases. Water ice is most abundant in craters around the moon’s south pole. NASA is enlisting commercial companies such as SpaceX, Astrobotic Technology, and MDA to help get its astronauts to the polar region and in a position to ‘live off the land’ there.
One of MDA’s chief contributions to the Artemis program will be the robotic arm on a space station called the Gateway, which will orbit around the moon. The Gateway will be a transfer point for crew and cargo traveling to and from the lunar surface. MDA’s Holly Johnson is confident that the commercial space sector will be an essential enabler of the vision of a sustained human presence on the moon.
For a deeper dive into the private space industry’s part in the return to the moon, Kevin talks to Chad Anderson of venture capital firm SpaceCapital. Anderson explains why people are now talking about the rise of a ‘lunar economy’. He says, “Who controls the early infrastructure is set to control things and make a lot of money.”
Chad Anderson. Credit: David Noles
Chad Anderson
Founder and managing partner of SpaceCapital
Chad Anderson is the founder and managing partner of Space Capital. Space Capital is a seed-stage venture capital firm which invests in companies developing new space technologies. He is author of The Space Economy: Capitalize on the Greatest Business Opportunity of our Lifetime. Prior to founding Space Capital, Anderson led a successful career at JP Morgan Chase, where he managed a $50-billion real estate portfolio through the Great Recession. He has an MBA with a focus on entrepreneurship and innovation from the University of Oxford.
Raja Chari. Credit: NASA
Raja Chari
NASA Astronaut
Raja Chari was selected as a NASA astronaut in 2017. Prior to joining the space agency, he was a colonel and a fighter pilot in the United States Air Force. In 2021, Raja Chari made his first flight into space. He commanded the mission of a SpaceX Dragon capsule to the International Space Station. Raja Chari then spent almost six months aboard the space station as a mission specialist, which included two space walks. His next mission could well be an Artemis moon landing.
Holly Johnson. Credit: MDA
Holly Johnson
Vice President of Robotics and Space Operations, MDA
Holly Johnson was appointed vice president for robotics and space operations at the Canadian space company MDA in 2022. She is a trained mechanical engineer who has occupied engineering, business development, and corporate operations roles in her 15-year career at the Canadian company.
Kevin Fong. Credit: Anthony Cullen
Dr. Kevin Fong (host)
Professor, Department of Science, Technology, Education and Public Policy (STEaPP) at University College London
Kevin Fong is a senior emergency care physician and anesthesiologist in the UK’s National Health Service. He is also an expert in space medicine and has worked as a researcher in NASA’s human spaceflight program in Houston. He is also a broadcaster who has hosted many radio and television shows, and podcasts on space flight and exploration. They include the BBC hit podcast ‘13 Minutes to the Moon’.
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