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Israel's global image wanes further after killing of aid workers
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Netanyahu losing the PR battle amid public outrage over the IDF strike killing seven aid workers?
I think Israel is losing the information war around the world, not just with the Global South, which was certainly true a few months ago, but increasingly even with Israel's closest allies. I'm hearing from the Germans, from the French, you know, from the Canadians, from the United States, that there is really a lot of upset with the unwillingness to take far greater care about civilian casualties while the Israelis are engaging in massive airstrikes still across Gaza. And of course, especially if we see strikes into Rafah, where well over a million Palestinians are trying to shelter. It's a big problem for the Israelis. It's a big problem for Netanyahu, but no end in sight, right now. And the potential for the war to escalate continues to be very, very real.
What's needed to garner bipartisan support for Speaker Mike Johnson's bill for increased Ukraine aid?
We have bipartisan support. There is overwhelming majority support among Democrats and Republicans to pass aid for Ukraine, likely 60 billion. Could be structured as a loan. Doesn't really matter. It’s not like anyone believes the Ukrainians will be in a position to pay it off any time soon. Makes it more palatable for Trump supporters who have heard the former president say, “not one more dime in direct foreign aid,” has to all be structured as loans in case we don't like them in the future, then they have to pay it back. What if they can't? Who knows? But anyway, that's the structure. The point is that the Ukrainians who have continued to be able to mostly hold their defensive lines, they've lost some territory recently, in part because they don't have enough troops on the ground. They are pushing through more mobilization, but also because they don't have enough artillery and ammunition, enough military equipment. And that is coming some from the Europeans, more soon from the Americans this month, I suspect the next couple of weeks that happens.
What's the significance of Turkey's recent local elections setback for President Erdogan's government?
It is the first time in a couple of decades since Erdogan took power that his party did not win. They didn't get a majority, and instead it was the opposition. And that's a big deal. Even those municipal elections. Look, it doesn't mean the end of Erdogan. He doesn't have to stand for presidential elections, no parliamentary elections until 2028. So it's quite a while. But it does show that elections matter in a country like Turkey as much as Erdogan would like them not to. And it is mostly about lack of comfort with his government's performance on the economy, a lot more pressure to perform adequately. And the mayor of Istanbul is an erstwhile serious challenger to the Turkish president. So, I mean, his ability to change the constitution and consolidate more power, his ability to ensure that his party is going to be in control after 2028 has just gone down quite a bit. And that means he has to be more careful, more cautious and more focused on performing on the economy for his own people.
Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, mayoral candidate of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), celebrate following the early results in front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) in Istanbul, Turkey March 31, 2024.
Turkey’s AI elections
Voters across Turkey went to the polls on Sunday for local elections nationwide. While Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wasn’t on the ballot, observers expected the Turkish president to change the constitution to extend his own term limits should his AK Party win with enough of a mandate. Instead, the opposition Republican People’s Party won in a shock victory.
The consequential nature of these elections heightened concerns about disinformation spread with AI-generated media. Earlier this year, an AI-generated voiceover was used to alter a video of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu to show him praising Erdoğan. Imamoğlu is a chief rival of the Turkish president and has served as mayor since 2019.
There have also been allegations of blackmail using AI. One politician, the former professional soccer player Gokhan Zan, withdrew his mayoral candidacy in the province of Hatay after receiving threats to release a video showing him taking bribes, a video he claims was generated with AI.
Erdoğan now faces the prospect of four years in power with an emboldened opposition led by the charismatic Imamoğlu. We’re watching for how each side harnesses AI to scrap for power in one of the world’s most important — and most flawed — democratic systems.
Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, mayoral candidate of the main opposition party, celebrate in front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 31, 2024.
Turkish voters punish Erdogan in local elections
Turks delivered a blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday in local elections amid crippling inflation. The opposition beat Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, in Turkey's five biggest cities, with the biggest result rocking Istanbul's mayoral race
Erdoğan wanted his party’s candidate, former Environment Minister Murat Kurum, to unseat popular opposition Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu in Turkey's largest city. But Imamoğlu was ahead by 10 percentage points early Monday, with most of the ballots counted.
Imamoğlu’s victory in the 2019 elections was a serious rebuke to Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, which had controlled the metropolis since 2004. Erdoğan launched his career in national politics from the mayorship, which he won in 1994 — and he wanted to prevent Imamoğlu from following in his footsteps.
Erdoğan heavily backed Kurum, going so far as to hold two preelection rallies in the city and attend prayers at the deeply symbolic Hagia Sophia mosque just ahead of the vote. The president based much of his appeal to Turkish voters on cultural issues and Islamist policy, in stark contrast to the secularism of the opposition CHP.
It's the economy, stupid. The win bolsters Imamoğlu's position as Erdoğan's main political rival. In the end, it likely came down to lira, as Erdoğan's economic policy has been disastrous. The country is struggling with a 70% inflation rate year-on-year, and interest rates are around 50%, putting tremendous pressure on businesses and families.
"At a time when Erdogan is looking to consolidate his power to rebalance the economy and maintain his foreign policy balancing act, these factors would pose fresh political challenges at home to Turkey's long-serving leader," says Emre Peker, a director for Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. While a general election won't happen anytime soon, Sunday's results will hurt Erdoğan’s hopes of a constitutional reform, leaving him in a weaker negotiating position.
FILE PHOTO: The President of the Republic of Turkey, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speak at a press conference in Berlin on November 17th, 2023.
Still no Swedish meatballs at the NATO cantina
Just days after the Swedish foreign minister said he was confident his country would join NATO “within weeks,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has thrown up another roadblock.
If you’re counting, the process has now dragged on for more than 18 months, as Turkey and Hungary are the two NATO member holdouts blocking Sweden’s formal accession to the alliance.
Erdoğan says that while he’s “done his duty” by asking lawmakers to greenlight Sweden’s entry, he now expects Washington to reward him by approving his long-coveted purchase of US-made F-16 fighter jets. The Turkish president’s idea is that both processes should occur “simultaneously.”
But the US Congress doesn’t share that idea. Lawmakers in Washington won’t sign off on the F-16 sale “until Sweden is let into NATO,” according to Eurasia Group US Director Clayton Allen. And Erdoğan’s recent statements in support of Hamas and sanctions-busting trade with Russia will “make that even thornier,” he says.
Still, Erdoğan’s game isn’t to block Sweden indefinitely, but rather to engage in “diplomatic grandstanding and bazaar bargaining”, says Emre Peker, Europe analyst at Eurasia Group.
The inflection point, says Peker, will be Turkish local elections scheduled for next March. If Erdoğan detects political advantage in chastising the US and wagging his finger at NATO allies still, he can have his lawmakers withhold approval for Sweden until after that vote, if he likes.
Either way, that timeline would – in theory – make it possible to see Swedish meatballs on the menu at the NATO summit in Washington in July, commemorating the 75th anniversary of the alliance.
Will Israel's ban on UN staff impact peace efforts?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Israel's UN ban a blow to peace efforts?
If it was permanent, I'd say yes as it is. I think we won't be talking about it in a few days. Look, obviously, on the back of these horrific terrorist attacks, everyone in Israel is on edge and more willing to lash out when they hear anything that sounds not 100% aligned with the message they want to hear. I'm empathetic to that, and I expect they're going to back away, especially because the Secretary-General has been consistent in talking about how he has condemned Hamas terrorist attacks. You know, anyone can pick a sentence and cherry-pick it for their purposes. That's what's happened here. I think it's unfortunate. The Global South will certainly align more with the Secretary-General, as they always do. But Antonio then doubled down and clarified his statement on Hamas all the way through. I think this will not be a big deal.
Will Qatar's diplomacy efforts secure the release of Gaza hostages?
Meaning more Gaza hostages. We've got four out so far. I certainly think a lot more can be released if there is further delay for Israel on the ground assault. And, you know, frankly, I think that there's very good reason for the Israelis to continue to hold off. I mean, the fact of the matter is, you will get more citizens, not military people that have been captured, and there are a bunch of those, too. But I think, you know, women, children, infirm, the aged, the willingness of Hamas to let them go, buy themselves time, get more international support as they do it, less condemnation and work with the Qataris is probably pretty high. So I do think that that's going to happen. But I'd be very surprised if the Israelis are willing to wait for like a month before the invasion. It does feel to me increasingly soon.
How will Erdoğan's stance on Hamas impact Turkey's standing with the Western world?
Well, I mean, it's not new that Erdoğan has had warm relations with Hamas, supported Hamas, and certainly has not considered them a terrorist organization as the United States does. He also has recently, after the terrorist attacks, refused to condemn them. That is a harder-line policy than we see even from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia right now. And keep in mind, Turkey is a NATO ally. On the other hand, they're now letting the Sweden vote go through the parliament. So, I mean, the fact is that Turkey has always been a NATO's ally with challenges and they're never 100% aligned with the United States and most of Europe on most things. And this continues to be the case. But let's be clear that unlike the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where the entire West was aligned, on the Israeli response to the Hamas terrorist attacks, the West is not fully aligned. And certainly most of the world opposes Israel's military bombings. The extent of the bombings as well as the likely ground invasion. So in that regard, I think there's less to be seen here with Turkey's position.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Police officers secure an area near the Interior Ministry following a bomb attack in Ankara, Turkey, on Oct. 1, 2023.
Turkey retaliates for terrorist attack
Turkish warplanes on Sunday destroyed 20 suspected targets of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, in northern Iraq following a suicide bombing of the Turkish Ministry of Interior Affairs in Ankara for which the PKK claimed responsibility. Two police officers were injured and one of the bombers was killed in the assault.
The attack happened hours before Turkey’s Parliament was set to return from its summer recess. The legislature opened as planned, and a defiant Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the bombing “the last stand of terrorism” and vowed that “the scoundrels who targeted the peace and security of the citizens could not achieve their goals and they never will.”
The PKK, which is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union, has conducted a number of attacks in Turkey together with the Islamic State group.
Erdogan also reiterated Turkey’s plans to create a 20-mile safe zone along its border with Syria to secure the area from attacks.
This Turkish parliamentary session is notably supposed to ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO, but Erdogan has not yet indicated when that is likely to take place.
Television media broadcast commentaries as delegates arrive to the United Nations 76th General Assembly amid protests on September 21, 2021 in New York City, USA.
What’s on deck at the UN for Tuesday, September 19?
Our intrepid Senior Writer Gabrielle Debinski is on the ground with our colleagues from GZERO World for the latest updates. Also, if you missed our rundown of the major items on the agenda on Friday, catch up here.
Please note, leaders are listed in the order in which they are expected to speak, but the schedule sometimes runs ragged. You can find a complete schedule here.
Major Speakers on Tuesday
- Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: By tradition, the Brazilian president opens every General Assembly debate. Lula has complained about too much focus on Ukraine at the expense of other global issues, watch for his rhetoric here.
- U.S. President Joe Biden: The only leader from a permanent member of the Security Council who is attending the summit in person, expect lots on Ukraine and appeals for development aid and climate action..
- Colombian President Gustavo Petro: The left-wing leader called for an end to the war on drugs in his first UNGA speech last year — and now cocaine exports are booming.
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Often the belle of the geopolitical ball the past two years, Turkey has played a crucial role in the Black Sea grain deal and is the only NATO member with good ties to Moscow. This one is worth your time.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: With his counteroffensive making slow progress and whispers of “Ukraine fatigue” spreading across Europe and the US, the actor-turned-president is looking to make a command performance to shore up support.
Major Conferences
- Day 2 of the High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development Goals
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi, Russia, on Sept. 4, 2023.
No pain, no grain
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s weekend meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has failed to revive the Black Sea grain deal. The UN-brokered agreement, which guaranteed safe passage for Ukrainian grain shipments to markets in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, had been on hold since July. Russia refused to extend the deal, citing a failure to honor a parallel agreement to remove obstacles to its food and fertilizer exports.
On Monday, Putin reiterated this demand. "We will be ready to consider the possibility of reviving the grain deal … we will do this as soon as all the agreements on lifting restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products are fully implemented.” Moscow is also demanding that the Russian Agricultural Bank be reconnected to the SWIFT international payments system, from which it was cut off as part of EU sanctions for its invasion. The UN had offered to reinstate this relationship in July to keep the grain deal alive.
Erdogan offered his own prescription for reviving the deal: “Ukraine needs to especially soften its approaches in order for it to be possible for joint steps to be taken with Russia" and export more grain to Africa rather than Europe. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba “took note” of Erdogan’s position, but added, "We should not continue to be hostages to Russian blackmail, where Russia creates problems and then invites everyone to solve them.”
To deflect criticism that Russia is starving developing nations of much-needed food, Russia is set to supply up to one million tons of grain to Turkey at reduced prices for processing at Turkish plants and shipping to countries “most in need.” Putin is also brokering a deal to send free grain to six African countries: Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea, and Central African Republic.
But Russia’s moves aren’t all bread and roses: They will also conveniently purchase political capital for Russia’s war in Ukraine and expand its influence over the African continent, an arena where Russia has been increasingly active in recent years.