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The Arizona for Abortion Access news conference at the law offices of Coppersmith Brockelman in Phoenix.
Arizona courts order near-total abortion ban
The court rejected arguments that it should uphold the 15-week ban the state has followed since the fall of Roe v. Wade in 2022, instead deciding to uphold a more restrictive law passed before Arizona was even a state. When it goes into effect in 15 days, abortion will be a felony punishable by two to five years in prison for anyone who performs or helps a woman obtain one. It makes no exceptions for instances of rape or incest.
It comes a week after a pro-choice group obtained enough signatures last week to put an amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution on the ballot in November. This all but ensures that abortion – a major motivating issue for Democratic voters – will play a big role in how the swing state votes in 2024.
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump gives a statement on abortion policy, in this screengrab obtained from a video released on April 8, 2024.
Trump embraces status-quo on abortion
Trump’s status-quo position is unlikely to appease the pro-lifers in his party who want national restrictions. But the former president is betting that his appointment of the three justices who overturned the constitutional right to an abortion is enough to keep them on his side.
Reactions from pro-life groups have been mixed. The president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, Marjorie Dannenfelser, said the organization was “deeply disappointed.” Students for Life of Action, meanwhile, made it clear they’re sticking by Trump but hoping he pursues a more restrictive approach to abortion in the future.
Trump’s move is unlikely to quell the Democratic Party’s advantage from high turnout in states where abortion is on the ballot. The left’s strategy is to amplify stories of women who have been harmed by Republican abortion policies, with the Biden campaign releasing an emotional video testimony hours after Trump’s announcement dropped.
President Joe Biden, meanwhile, accused Trump of sowing “cruelty” and “chaos” around the abortion debate because of his role in the Dobbs decision.
Abortion referendums will be on the ballot in at least a few swing states – Florida is confirmed, and Arizona and Nevada are likely – creating a massive weakness for Republicans that Trump’s call for abortion to be left to the states will do nothing to mitigate.
What Florida's abortion rulings mean for the 2024 US election
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we are watching in US Politics this week: Abortion.
Abortion is the big story in US politics this week with the Florida state Supreme Court ruling that a ballot initiative that would protect access to abortion up until fetal viability will be on the ballot in abortion in Florida this year. Democrats are excited about this ruling because it was starting to look like Florida was increasingly out of reach for them.
Republicans now out register Democratic voters in the state by over 800,000 registered voters, which is a flip from a decade ago when Democrats outnumbered Republicans by about 500,000 registered voters. Florida is looking like more and more of a red state with a massive 20 point victory for Republican Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2022 midterm elections. That's what was making Democrats feel like it wouldn't be a very competitive state in this presidential cycle.
However, with abortion on the ballot, they now see an opportunity for outside groups to come in and spend a bunch of money who otherwise wouldn't have sent money there, forcing Republicans to respond by potentially wasting money there. The state is probably a little bit too red for it to truly be competitive for President Biden in this election cycle.
But this abortion referendum story is going to play out across the country. Democratic activists have the opportunity to get abortion on the ballot in two critical swing states of Nevada and Arizona. But it's unlikely they would show up in the other swing states of Wisconsin or Michigan, because Wisconsin had a recent state Supreme Court decision about it. And Michigan had an abortion referendum in 2022. That doesn't mean they can't find other ways to make this election about access to abortion, which has been a very positive issue for Democrats.
There have been seven state referendums since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. And in each of those, the electorate shifted significantly to the left from what they did in the 2020 results, even in deep red states like Kansas and Kentucky. So this is going to be an important issue to keep watching throughout the election. And could be one of the wild cards that helps Joe Biden overcome the bad polls that he's been experiencing in recent weeks.
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a campaign rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, U.S., April 2, 2024.
Where will Trump stand on abortion?
Donald Trump has teased that he’s making a statement on abortion next week. The move follows Florida’s Supreme Court decisions implementing a six-week ban and putting the divisive issue on the state’s ballot in November.
The conservative court’s decision benefits Joe Biden. Abortion has been a major motivator of Democratic voters since the reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022. Trump only won Florida by three points back in 2020, and the court’s move is likely to boost Democratic turnout in the state while fueling nationwide fears about abortion rights being under attack, which could get more pro-choice Dems to the polls.
Balancing act. Trump knows that Democrats have the upper hand on abortion. So his announcement will likely aim to undercut the Biden campaign’s accusations that he would pass a strict national abortion ban if elected. But the Bible salesman needs to tread carefully to avoid alienating his pro-life, evangelical supporters.
Where does Trump stand? Trump, who appointed the three justices that overturned Roe v. Wade, has moderated his position on abortion, even calling Florida’s move a “terrible mistake.” He has suggested that there is a national consensus around restricting abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Trump supports exceptions for cases of incest and rape or to protect the life of the mother.
USA TODAY NETWORK via Reuters Connect
Abortion in Florida: banned and on the ballot
The decisions are likely to benefit Democrats in November. Surveys have shown that most of Florida’s voters oppose bans on abortion during the very early stages of pregnancy, and Democrats have consistently won in swing states when abortion is on the ballot. Donald Trump, who is trying to claw back some credibility on the issue after appointing the justices that overturned Roe v Wade, called the ban “terrible.”
It also all but eliminates abortion access in the Southern USand will strain abortion services across the country. Last year, more than 84,000 people got abortions in Florida, more than in almost any other state, and a yearly increase of 2,000 thanks to people from other states with bans traveling to the Sunshine State to receive abortion care.
Graphic Truth: Abortion meds in SCOTUS case are crucial
The US Supreme Court heard arguments on Tuesday on whether access to mifepristone, an oral drug used to terminate a pregnancy, should be restricted. The drug works by blocking progesterone, a hormone that’s necessary for a pregnancy to continue. The case centers on whether changes the FDA made in 2016 and 2021, which broadened access to the drug, should be rolled back.
Pro-choice activists attend a demonstration at the Supreme Court as it hears oral arguments in a case that could end access to the medication abortion, Washington, DC, March 26, 2024.
SCOTUS vs. abortion pill
The US Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Tuesday in a case over whether to limit access to mifepristone, one of two drugs used in medication abortion.
It’s the first abortion case before the high court since its conservative majority overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. And it has major potential ramifications: 63% of all US abortions last year used mifepristone.
Justices are considering whether to roll back FDA rule changes that expanded the ways the drug could be prescribed and dispensed, including via telehealth and by mail. The plaintiffs, a group of anti-abortion doctors, contend that mifepristone is dangerous — though multiple studies found the drug both effective and safe.
What’s at stake? The court’s decision is expected in June. If it rules in favor of restricting access to the drug, it could impact availability nationwide, even in states where abortion remains legal.
And any such decision would likely make abortion even more of a key issue in the 2024 presidential race. Democrats have performed well in elections where abortion has been on the ballot, so siding with the plaintiffs could present a challenge to former President Donald Trump. He is anti-abortion and appointed three of the six conservatives on the court. That said, even they appeared skeptical of the arguments presented by the plaintiffs, and concerned over the implications of challenging the FDA’s authority to approve medications.
Alabama Governor Kay Ivey.
The election-year political scramble over IVF
Last week, Axios reported that a half dozen swing-district House Republicans were signing onto a resolution in support of continuing access to fertility treatment as other prominent national Republicans struggled to settle on a GOP message on the subject. In response, first lady Jill Biden invited an Alabama woman seeking IVF services as a guest at last night’s State of the Union address. To double down on the point, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) invited 42-year-old Elizabeth Carr, the world’s first “test-tube baby” to attend the speech.
Alabama Republicans quickly decided to get in front of the controversy. On Wednesday, the Alabama State Legislature passed a bill that grants civil and criminal immunity for in vitro fertilization service providers and receivers, and Republican Gov. Kay Ivey signed the bill into law less than an hour later. The move allows both patients and clinics to restart IVF treatments in the state without fear they could be prosecuted if embryos are damaged or destroyed during the procedure. It also highlights the election-year political stakes surrounding all aspects of reproductive rights, one of America’s most controversial political issues.