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The House Republican circus rolls on
It took five rounds of voting on Tuesday to make Tom Emmer of Minnesota the Republican nominee for speaker of the US House of Representatives … and about four more hours to persuade him his candidacy was doomed. Though he won a clear majority of House Republicans (117 of 221) in the final round of voting, he knew it wouldn’t be easy to earn the backing of 217 of 221 Republicans needed to win a majority of the full House.
That’s mainly because Emmer has a powerful Republican enemy: Donald Trump. Emmer voted to certify President Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential election victory, and Trump has sought revenge by waging an aggressive campaign to discredit Emmer within the GOP caucus. By late afternoon on Tuesday, Trump had tweeted his opposition, and the game was up. Emmer had bowed out.
Late Tuesday night, House Republicans then voted to make Mike Johnson of Louisiana their fourth nominee for speaker. Can he get the 217 votes needed to win the job?
If he too falls short, House Republicans may finally decide they’ve had enough of closed-door meetings and secret ballots, and decide instead to empower the current temporary speaker, Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, to serve for a specified period up to several weeks. That would allow the House to negotiate with Democrats on the budgetary questions needed to keep the government from shutting down next month and to consider bills granting aid to Israel and Ukraine.
Or, they could go back to square one and start voting all over again, and your GZERO Newsletter team can just keep writing this same story every few days.
How Trump shook up American democracy — & nearly severed ties with Europe
Ian Bremmer discusses US politics and the upcoming midterm elections with DC power couple Susan Glasser and Peter Baker. Glasser is a Washington columnist for the New Yorker, and Baker is the chief White House correspondent for the New York Times. They recently co-authored a new book about the Trump presidency.
The conversation, which for the first time in the show's history was recorded in front of a live studio audience, looks at the key issues in the midterm election and the Trump factor. Baker and Glasser had planned to become foreign correspondents in 2020, but because of Trump's win decided to stay in DC. Even out of office, they say Trump still looms large over the GOP, and continues to influence US politics like an "active crime scene."
The journalists also discuss Vladimir Putin, who was the subject of one of their previous books, and the Trump-Putin bromance; the two men share more in common than might immediately meet the eye.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: US votes as democracy is under attack
- How Trump dominates the GOP & "impressed" these DC journalists ... ›
- Susan Glasser: Trump damaged US credibility - GZERO Media ›
- Can the US get its act together? Susan Glasser & Peter Baker on ... ›
- Behind Trump's public theater: real attacks on US standing - GZERO ... ›
- Jon Lieber: What's different about the 2022 midterms is 2024 Trump ... ›
Behind Trump’s public theater: real attacks on US standing
Right before Donald Trump was elected US president in 2016, Peter Baker and Susan Glasser were about to get overseas correspondent gigs at The New York Times and The New Yorker, respectively. Both turned it down, deciding to stay in America to cover the Trump presidency.
But what ensued was so crazy that "we got to be foreign correspondents in our hometown," Glasser tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, for the first time in front of a live studio audience.
Trump was something no one had ever seen before in US politics. He was "from another planet in terms of Washington," says Baker. And he didn't change his style right to the very end: the Jan 6. Capitol insurrection he spurred.
For Baker, Jan. 6 was "not an outlier" but rather the result of Trump's four-year war on American political institutions.
Watch the GZERO World episode: US votes as democracy is under attack
US votes as democracy is under attack
US midterm elections have traditionally been a referendum on the president. But in 2022 even Joe Biden wants the vote to be all about his predecessor, Donald Trump, who still dominates the GOP.
In this episode of GZERO World - and for the first time in front of a live studio audience — Ian Bremmer speaks to New York Times Chief White House Correspondent Peter Baker and New Yorker staff writer Susan Glasser, who've just co-authored a new book about the Trump presidency.
Baker and Glasser explain how they had planned to become foreign correspondents in 2020 but after Trump's win decided to stay in DC, covering him like being foreign correspondents in their own town. What's more, even out of office, they say Trump still looms large over the GOP, and continues to influence US politics like an "active crime scene.
And, of course, there's always Trump's bromance with Vladimir Putin, who share more in common than might immediately meet the eye.
- The Graphic Truth — Biden's first midterms: How does he stack up ... ›
- Democrats hope to use Jan 6 Trump focus to gain edge in midterms ... ›
- How Trump dominates the GOP & "impressed" these DC journalists ... ›
- Can the US get its act together? Susan Glasser & Peter Baker on ... ›
- Democracy is resilient - but so is authoritarianism around the world - GZERO Media ›
Join us for our Global Stage event live from Washington DC
WATCH : Today at 3:30 pm ET, GZERO Media streamed from the World Bank headquarters in Washington, DC, to discuss "Financing the Future" as part of our Global Stage series.
Moderator Jeanna Smialek, Federal Reserve reporter at The New York Times, led the conversation with Eurasia Group and GZERO Media president Ian Bremmer, World Bank president David Malpass, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Minister of Finance, Republic of Indonesia, and Rania Al-Mashat, Minister of International Cooperation, Egypt. We also heard from Vickie Robinson, General Manager, Microsoft Airband Initiative, and Gintarė Skaistė, Minister of Finance, Lithuania.
GZERO Media's Webby Award-nominated Global Stage series is produced in partnership with Microsoft.
Live from Washington, DC: Financing the Future
Thursday, April 21
3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT
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George Floyd Police Reform Bill unlikely to pass Senate
Jon Lieber, Managing Director of the United States for the Eurasia Group, shares his insights on US politics:
With the conviction of Derek Chauvin, will there be a George Floyd Policing Reform Bill?
Unlikely right now. It's possible, but there's a big divide between Republicans and Democrats over the issue of eliminating qualified immunity. Democrats want to get rid of it. Republicans want to keep it in order to make sure that cops aren't exposed to too much liability while they're on the job. And to get anything done in the Senate, you need 60 votes, which would, of course, require 10 Republicans. So, conversations are likely to be ongoing, but this issue went nowhere during the Trump administration because both sides decided they wanted something, to make something political out of it, and I don't think that much is going to change now.
Why did President Biden flip-flop on the refugee cap?
President Biden promised during the campaign that he would lift President Trump's refugee cap from 15,000 to its old level of 65,000. But with a surging migrant crisis on the southern border, Biden decided this wasn't a priority and changed his mind a little bit on undoing the refugee cap. The administration announced this last Friday and there was a lot of pushback from migrant and refugee advocates against them for doing so. They later that evening flip-flopped again and said that sometime in May they were going to announce a new policy that would satisfy most of their allies on the left. But the issue of the border is still a big one for President Biden, one that's been dormant for quite some time. But with a surging number of children in particular rising on the southern border, it's not going to go away.
Will Washington, DC become the 51st state?
I'm standing here on a street corner in DC and I think the answer is probably also unlikely. And the reason is similar to the George Floyd Bill, that you cannot get 60 votes in the Senate to pass this. You'd have to eliminate the filibuster and even if you did that, it's unclear today if there are 50 Democrats in the Senate who would favor doing so. The House has now passed the bill multiple times to make DC a state, but the outlook in the Senate is just not that good. Stay tuned, because this is going to be a really important political issue throughout the year, especially as the Democrats look at the likelihood they might lose the House of Representatives next year.
Bipartisan action against Russia? Pros & cons of DC statehood
Jon Lieber, managing director for the United States at Eurasia Group, provides his perspective on US politics:
How likely is bipartisan action against Russia in light of Taliban bounty reports?
I think it's probably unlikely. One of the challenges here is that there's some conflict of the intelligence and anything that touches on the issue of President Trump and Russia is extremely toxic for him. Republicans have so far been tolerant of that and willing to stop any new sanctions coming. I think unless the political situation or the allegations get much worse or more obvious, that stalemate probably remains.
What are the strongest and least political arguments for and against D.C. Statehood?
Well, on the one hand, you've got 700,000 people living in D.C. who lack any true, complete representation in Congress, and on the other hand, the founders specifically envisioned there would be a federal district that was sort of a neutral ground for the other States to get together and work out their issues. Possible compromise might be receding the District back to Maryland where residents could then get representation, but then you wouldn't get the two new senators that Democrats are likely to get should D.C. Become a state. So we'll see what happens on that next year.
What are the June job numbers mean for the odds of a phase four stimulus?
The June job numbers were very good, 4.8 million new jobs, 11.1% unemployment, not good by any historical standards, but given where we've been the last few months, pretty great. Probably this means there's a little less urgency in Congress to get a phase four bill done quickly, but members still want to get something done. State and local governments still need money, and the unemployment insurance that's expiring is likely to be extended. So look for a bill to get done by the first week of August.
Ian Goes to DC with Cory Booker
Who is Putin's bride, and why is New Jersey Senator Cory Booker quoting South Park? Find out on this episode of GZERO World.