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Podcast: Trouble ahead: The top global risks of 2024
Listen: In a special edition of the GZERO podcast, we're diving into our expectations for the topsy-turvy year ahead. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate and possible partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza has amplified region-wide tensions that threaten to spill over into an even wider, even more disastrous, even ghastlier conflict. And in the United States, the presidential election threatens to rip apart the feeble tendrils holding together American democracy.
All those trends and more topped Eurasia Group's annual Top Risks project for 2024, which takes the view from 30,000 feet to summarize the most dangerous and looming unknowns in the coming year. Everything from out-of-control AI to China's slow-rolling economy made this year's list.
GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group Founder and President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan to work through their list of Top Risks for 2024 alongside Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021"; Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. The big throughline this year? Events spiral out of control even against the wishes of major players. Whether it's possible escalation between Israel and Iranian proxies, Chinese retaliation to the result of the Taiwanese election, or central banks finding themselves squeezed into a corner by persistent inflation, the sheer number of moving parts presents a risk in and of itself.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, recorded live on January 8.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
A world of conflict: The top risks of 2024
2024 is shaping up to be a turbulent year. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate that puts the country on the road to partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza risks expanding to a region-wide war. And in the United States, the presidential election is pitting a divided country against itself with unprecedented risks for its democracy. Throw in AI growing faster than governments can keep up, China's rumbly grumbly economy, and El Nino weather, and you're starting to get the picture.
All those trends and more made it onto Eurasia Group's annual Top Risk project for 2024. As a political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group strives to keep clients informed of the global affairs that will impact their interests and bottom lines. The Top Risks project takes the view from 30,000 feet every year, summarizing the biggest and most dangerous unknowns that will affect everyone, political junkie or not.
GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group Founder and President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan to work through their list of Top Risks for 2024 alongside Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021"; Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. The big throughline this year? Events spiral out of control even against the wishes of major players. Whether it's possible escalation between Israel and Iranian proxies, Chinese retaliation to the result of the Taiwanese election, or central banks finding themselves squeezed into a corner by persistent inflation, the sheer number of moving parts presents a risk in and of itself.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 8.
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Watch today's livestream: 2024's Top Risks
WATCH: Ian Bremmer and a panel of leading geopolitics experts discuss Eurasia Group's newly released annual Top Risks report, which forecasts the global political threats for 2024. Evan Solomon, GZERO Media's publisher, moderates the live discussion at gzeromedia.com/toprisks.
The lead authors of the report, Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, and Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group's chairman, will be joined by Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021"; Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, and former European Parliamentarian, in a GZERO Media live event moderated by GZERO's publisher, Evan Solomon.
Watch live today at 12 noon ET at gzeromedia.com/toprisks.
Top Risks 2024
Monday, January 8, 2024 | 12 pm ET
How Trump shook up American democracy — & nearly severed ties with Europe
Ian Bremmer discusses US politics and the upcoming midterm elections with DC power couple Susan Glasser and Peter Baker. Glasser is a Washington columnist for the New Yorker, and Baker is the chief White House correspondent for the New York Times. They recently co-authored a new book about the Trump presidency.
The conversation, which for the first time in the show's history was recorded in front of a live studio audience, looks at the key issues in the midterm election and the Trump factor. Baker and Glasser had planned to become foreign correspondents in 2020, but because of Trump's win decided to stay in DC. Even out of office, they say Trump still looms large over the GOP, and continues to influence US politics like an "active crime scene."
The journalists also discuss Vladimir Putin, who was the subject of one of their previous books, and the Trump-Putin bromance; the two men share more in common than might immediately meet the eye.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: US votes as democracy is under attack
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Susan Glasser: Trump damaged US credibility
The Trump presidency might be over (for now), but The New Yorker staff writer Susan Glasser views it as an "active crime scene" because Trump remains influential in current — and perhaps future — US politics.
What's more, some of his most controversial moves are still having ripple effects today. Like threatening to pull out of NATO.
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, recorded for the first time in front of a live studio audience, Glasser explains how Trump's disdain for the alliance caused great uncertainty among its other members, even as NATO has become more united than ever before to respond to Russia's war in Ukraine.
She wonders whether they trust America's word anymore. The damage Trump did to US credibility "when it comes to making deals is very, very serious."
Watch the GZERO World episode: US votes as democracy is under attack
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Putin and geopolitical catastrophe
What do Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have in common?
"They're very different characters, but a similar rule applies, which is when somebody tells you who they are, you should listen," New York Times journalist Peter Baker tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, for the first time in front of a life studio audience. Baker co-authored a book on Putin with The New Yorker staff writer Susan Glasser, and the pair now have a new book out about the Trump presidency.
One thing that bothers Glasser when people talk about Putin is whether or not he'll accept an off-ramp to deescalate from the West. He won't.
Amid growing concerns that Putin might use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, she believes that Russia's president is all bluster. But what if he's not? You always need to take him seriously.
Watch the GZERO World episode: US votes as democracy is under attack
Behind Trump’s public theater: real attacks on US standing
Right before Donald Trump was elected US president in 2016, Peter Baker and Susan Glasser were about to get overseas correspondent gigs at The New York Times and The New Yorker, respectively. Both turned it down, deciding to stay in America to cover the Trump presidency.
But what ensued was so crazy that "we got to be foreign correspondents in our hometown," Glasser tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, for the first time in front of a live studio audience.
Trump was something no one had ever seen before in US politics. He was "from another planet in terms of Washington," says Baker. And he didn't change his style right to the very end: the Jan 6. Capitol insurrection he spurred.
For Baker, Jan. 6 was "not an outlier" but rather the result of Trump's four-year war on American political institutions.
Watch the GZERO World episode: US votes as democracy is under attack
US votes as democracy is under attack
US midterm elections have traditionally been a referendum on the president. But in 2022 even Joe Biden wants the vote to be all about his predecessor, Donald Trump, who still dominates the GOP.
In this episode of GZERO World - and for the first time in front of a live studio audience — Ian Bremmer speaks to New York Times Chief White House Correspondent Peter Baker and New Yorker staff writer Susan Glasser, who've just co-authored a new book about the Trump presidency.
Baker and Glasser explain how they had planned to become foreign correspondents in 2020 but after Trump's win decided to stay in DC, covering him like being foreign correspondents in their own town. What's more, even out of office, they say Trump still looms large over the GOP, and continues to influence US politics like an "active crime scene.
And, of course, there's always Trump's bromance with Vladimir Putin, who share more in common than might immediately meet the eye.
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