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Former President of the United States Donald J. Trump.
Georgia poses new dangers for Trump
Late Monday night, Donald Trump and 18 other people were indicted by a grand jury in Atlanta for conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election in the state of Georgia.
Trump will face 13 felony charges. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, and other alleged co-conspirators are charged with taking part in a “criminal enterprise” to flip the presidential election in a crucial state.
You can read the full indictment here.
Let’s cut to the chase: Trump has already been indicted three times – in New York City, Washington, DC, and Florida – and he faces dozens of other felony charges in those cases. And though it’s too soon to know the likelihood of a Trump conviction in any of them, there’s no evidence yet that they’ve dented his popularity. Here are the latest GOP primary numbers and matchups with President Joe Biden.
Is this case different? Might this one put Trump in real legal and political jeopardy?
In fact, Georgia may offer Trump a much tougher set of both legal and political problems. Here are three reasons why.
RICO
Georgia law features something called the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, widely known as RICO. Legal experts have warned that the broad powers this law gives a prosecutor – in this case, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis – can be used to charge Trump with all sorts of crimes related to the core charge of election fraud.
Under Georgia’s RICO law, prosecutors can bring such a case simply by showing the existence of an “enterprise” involved in at least two “qualifying” crimes that form part of a “pattern of racketeering activity.” He could, for example, be charged with solicitation to commit election fraud, perjury, forgery and/or improperly influencing government officials. These crimes need not have taken place in Georgia if their purpose was to overturn Georgia’s election results.
Crucially, the law doesn’t require the state to prove that Trump personally ordered, or even knew about, the commission of every crime in the indictment. It need only prove he led the enterprise that committed them.
Cameras rolling
In the interest of transparency, Georgia law requires there be cameras in the courtroom, unless a judge has a compelling reason not to allow them. This entire case may well play out on live television.
Yes, Trump is still riding high in Republican primary polls and running neck and neck with Biden. But undecided general election voters, particularly the independents Trump needs to win over in Nov. 2024, can now have a much closer look at the evidence against him. They won’t simply hear about it from Trump himself or from Trump-friendly media.
He also faces the risk that after months of televised daily legal grind, public fatigue with his long list of criminal charges will start to set in.
Unpardonable crimes
Despite all this, Trump may well be elected president next November, and the president of the United States can legally pardon convicted criminals. In theory, a president could pardon himself, though that idea has never been tested by US courts. But the charges facing Trump in Georgia are for state, not federal, crimes. No president can pardon someone convicted in state court.
Complicating matters further, under Georgia law, the governor couldn’t pardon a convicted president either. (There are already plenty of hard feelings between Trump and Governor Brian Kemp, who refused to help Trump reverse the state’s presidential election results in 2020.) If Trump were convicted in Georgia, only a five-member pardon board could absolve him. That’s a far more complicated problem.
The bottom line: Donald Trump has defied political and legal gravity for years. A poorly prepared prosecution, a friendly juror or two, and continued support from committed followers might well keep him aloft through 2024.
Or, Georgia might prove the band Radiohead right: “Gravity always wins.”
The Graphic Truth: Trump's indictment fundraising boom
Former President Donald Trump on Thursday pleaded not guilty to four counts linked to allegations that he tried to undermine the 2020 election result and remain in power despite losing the vote.
A judge set the first hearing for Aug. 28, just days after the first Republican presidential debate is set to take place – though the GOP frontrunner has suggested he may not participate in the debate.
Thursday’s appearance marked the third time in just four months that Trump has stood in a court and pleaded not guilty to criminal charges.
Still, not only do these legal woes not appear to be hurting Trump in the polls – the former president remains the frontrunner by a huge margin – but his joint fundraising committees have actually seen a boost from his previous indictments. The charges appear to be firing up his loyal base. (To be sure, that doesn’t translate to cash on hand as his legal quandaries appear to be draining the committee’s finances.)
We take a look at what Trump’s monthly joint fundraising committee has raised since he announced his reelection bid in Nov. 2022.
E. Jean Carroll departs from the Manhattan Federal Court following the verdict in the civil rape accusation case against former President Donald Trump, in New York City.
Trump liable for sexual abuse
Quick recap: The charges were brought by E. Jean Carroll, a former magazine advice columnist, who said in 2019 that Trump had raped her in a department store dressing room in the mid-1990s. Trump, for his part, denied the allegation and did not testify or show up in court.
The jury – made up of six men and three women – found that the former president sexual abused Carroll, now 79, but stopped short of finding him guilty of rape. Crucially, as this verdict is a civil case, Trump has not been convicted of a crime and does not face further penalties.
But this is hardly the end of the former president’s many legal woes. Importantly, Georgia prosecutors could reveal in the next few weeks whether they plan to charge Trump and allies in connection with their efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.
Now that a jury has found Trump liable for sexual abuse, will the Republican Party distance themselves from their leading 2024 presidential candidate – or double down on his candidacy? If history is anything to go by, expect the latter.
Warnock's Georgia victory: Dems control every Senate Committee
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
What does the Democratic win in the Georgia Senate race mean?
There are two major implications from Senator Raphael Warnock's victory last night in the Georgia Senate runoff. The first is that it ends the longest running tied Senate in American history and gives Democrats 51 seats and outright control of Senate committees that can be used to conduct oversight. This probably means more uncomfortable hearings for titans of industry next year and while the House will focus their oversight activities on the Biden administration, the Senate is going to be calling in bank CEOs and representatives of concentrated industries to talk about corporate profits and inflation.
The second is that this is yet another bad election outcome for former President Trump, who handpicked the Republican nominee, Herschel Walker, who is a first-time political candidate and not a very good one. Walker massively underperformed his fellow Republican, Governor Brian Kemp in both the general election and the runoff, and had a less controversial or more seasoned politician been the nominee, Republicans could have potentially kept or won back this seat.
This is the second runoff election in Georgia in a row that Republicans blame former President Trump for losing and it feeds into the narrative that Georgia, which President Biden won in 2020, is now a swing state, meaning that it will be one of the most hotly contested battlegrounds along with Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin in 2024.
Republicans control the other statewide offices in Georgia however and this race, despite Walker's flaws was close. So a key question is if Georgia is the next North Carolina, a state that tempts Democrats after President Obama won it in 2008, but one that they can't consistently win because of its structurally conservative lean.
One interesting fact about the 2022 midterms is that they were the first midterm election since 1934 where no incumbent Senator lost reelection, showing the power of incumbency even in narrowly divided and hard-fought elections.
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Donald Trump announces that he will once again run for US president in 2024 during an event at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida.
The world watches Trump
Americans were watching as Donald Trump announced his presidential candidacy on Tuesday night, but Trump’s entry into the race also grabbed the attention of political leaders around the globe.
It’s not hard to understand why. During his presidency (2017-2021), Trump was the first US leader since the 1930s to question the assumption that a global leadership role for Washington was good for Americans. In the process, he tried to fundamentally redefine relationships with friends and foes on a scale that caught world leaders off guard.
Some Americans, both Democrats and Republicans, see Trump as damaged political goods and don’t believe he can win. But most world leaders know it’s dangerous to underestimate Donald Trump or the personal connection millions of Americans feel with him. They know they must prepare for the possibility of Trump 2.0.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky surely wants to see Trump defeated. He knows there are many Republicans who reject Trump’s argument that US military and financial support for Ukraine’s war effort is too expensive for American taxpayers, but he also knows that a Trump victory might change minds and policy.
In Russia, President Vladimir Putin would love to see Trump’s return, not just because it might weaken or end US support for Ukraine, but because Trump’s antagonism toward many European governments, his broader skepticism about the value of NATO, and his affinity for Putin would offer a welcome alternative to any other potential candidate.
In most European capitals, a Trump win would be very bad news. The EU is already managing a serious economic slowdown, paying more for defense against Russia, and completely redrawing its energy map. Another Trump assault on transatlantic relations could only make matters worse. But a Trump victory would advance the argument of French President Macron and others that Europe needs its own foreign and defense policy, one that doesn’t depend on Washington. And European populists would welcome the return of Trump, who many see as a friend and source of encouragement.
In China, leaders will have mixed feelings. President Xi Jinping wants a US president he can negotiate with, and he knows a Trump administration might offer fewer lectures about how China should manage its economy, its foreign policy, and its approach to human rights at home. Xi would also welcome more friction between the US and Europe. But he also knows China remains one of Trump’s favorite political targets and that the tariffs Washington continues to enforce against China have Trump’s name on them.
In Japan and South Korea, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Yoon Suk-yeol are hoping to avoid more demands from Trump that they pay the US much more for their defense, and both are wary of Trump’s history of outreach to North Korea’s Kim Jong-un.
In Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants no part of a Trump administration that would treat his country as the pariah of the Middle East, though Saudi Arabia’s future king, Mohammed bin Salman would like that very much. The Biden administration has tried unsuccessfully to engage Iran and scorn the Saudis. Leaders in Tehran and Riyadh know Trump would do the opposite.
In Canada and Mexico, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador know that a Trump presidency would mean more aggressive renegotiations of trade relations. Both leaders have enough challenges at home without that.
For all these leaders, the future of their relationships with Washington isn’t simply a matter of whether Trump wins the 2024 election or even just the Republican nomination. They also know his candidacy could influence the positions of other candidates on issues they care about.
That’s why all of them will be watching closely as the next race for the White House begins to take shape.
This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Will Trump’s 2024 candidacy sink Republicans?
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:
Is the Republican Party still Trump's party to lead after the midterm elections?
The biggest news this week, other than Taylor Swift tickets going on presale, is the announcement by former President Donald Trump that he is going to run for president a third time. Trump's role with Republicans is a huge source of discord within the party right now. He remains one of, if not the most popular Republicans, but he is not delivering the electoral results the way he once did. Trump-aligned candidates had some of the worst nights in the midterm elections, in some cases trailing other Republicans from the same state by 20 points or more.
This is a huge dilemma for Republicans who can't win with him, but they also probably can't win without him, as there is a hard core of Trump-supporting voters within the GOP base who helped Trump candidates win their primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. If Trump does win the primary, there are a lot of people in both parties who think he is so toxic, it will give the election to the Democrats in 2024. Of course, depending on the state of the economy. But if he does not win the primary, there are serious questions as to how conciliatory he's willing to be, and if he would help the eventual Republican candidate or just take his base and go home.
And of course, there was a huge question as to who can beat Trump. The former entertainer destroyed the GOP field in 2016, mowing down former two-term governors in what was considered the best Republican slate of candidates in decades. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is getting a lot of buzz as a potential challenger. He's faced three years of intense media scrutiny after charting his own path on the COVID-19 pandemic. And he checks all of the boxes of cultural grievance against big business, the big government and the media that animate conservatives today. Given this, it seems likely he would be able to raise a lot of money very quickly and potentially consolidate the field. And this can make it very hard for other potential challengers like Mike Pompeo or Mike Pence to break through.
But this race is far from even starting to be run, and the first votes won't even be cast for over a year. In January 2007, a front-runner in the Democratic Party announced early, only to be defeated in a very contentious Democratic primary by a fresh face as primary voters looked to move on from the party's past. So the question is, will Donald Trump repeat the fate of Hillary Clinton from that 2008 race she lost against Barack Obama? Or will he defy history and become the first candidate to be nominated by the same party three times since FDR? We don't know, but the race is going to dominate US political news coverage for the next two years, so get ready.
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Donald Trump declares his candidacy for the 2024 presidential race.
He’s running. Trump eyes 2024.
Welp, he’s running. Despite a growing chorus of Republicans wishing he wouldn’t, he’s running. Despite reducing the anticipated “Red Wave” to a mere trickle in the midterms last week, he’s running. Despite an upcoming Georgia Senate runoff that hangs in the balance, he’s running.
Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that, yes, he’s running for president in 2024.
"America’s comeback starts right now," Trump told supporters at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., officially declaring his candidacy after filing his paperwork earlier in the day.
"Under my leadership, we were a great and glorious nation ... But now we are a nation in decline."
Why is he doing this? Because it will make the entire process of choosing a GOP candidate for 2024 about the thing Trump cherishes most: himself.
Whether he makes it through to the general or not, he’ll still control a huge chunk of loyal voters. Come 2024, Trump will be one of two things for the GOP: the King or the Kingmaker.
What the polls say. Trump held a commanding lead over most potential GOP primary rivals until the midterms, but several polls conducted since then show him on a downswing. Some studies even show him trailing rising GOP star Ron DeSantis, the newly reelected governor of Florida, by double digits in a hypothetical matchup.
What about that Georgia senate runoff? Both Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and his Trump-backed rival Herschel Walker want to boost turnout ahead of their December 6th runoff. Last week, Warnock finished ahead by a mere 36,000 votes. On balance, given how other Trump-backed candidates fared on election day, the specter of Trump’s return could hurt Walker, driving extra Democrats to the polls, giving the party a 51st seat in the Senate.
Who’s gonna challenge Trump? There’s been a lot of attention on DeSantis lately – including from Trump, who’s blasted Gov. “Desanctimonious” in recent days. But there are others out there: the Mike Pences (whose book release has been typically stepped on by the Trump news) the Nikki Haleys, the Glenn Youngkins, the Tim Scotts, the Chris Sununus, and so on.
The big question for all of them now, says Jon Lieber, US politics director at Eurasia Group, isn’t only how much money they can raise against the Trump juggernaut, but also how much abuse they and their families can take over the next two years.
“What’s my nickname gonna be? How many times do I want to get stuffed in the locker while walking around campus?” These are the calculations Lieber says are going through the heads of the other GOP hopefuls. “It’s scary to punch the bully in the face.”
And there’s no bully quite like Trump.
Can Trump win this thing? You’d have to be crazy to count him out. Despite his recent troubles, his announcement is hardly “General Custer, hold my Diet Coke.” During the primaries, Trump will look to grind down and divide the anti-Trump Republican bloc just like he did in 2016. And if he makes it through to a general, he remains an extraordinarily effective communicator with a huge base of support and uncanny political instincts.
Still, the GOP has a problem now. Trouble is brewing within the GOP itself, says Lieber. Trump might be too toxic to win a general election himself now, but without his voters, no Republican stands a chance in 2024.
“His presence threatens a rupture in the party whereby a bunch of Republican voters who are needed to win in a general election take their ball and go home if Trump isn't the guy. So the problem the Republicans face is basically: can't win with Trump and they can't win without him.”
Buckle up, America. We’re gonna do it all again.
This article was featured in SIGNAL, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe to SIGNAL here.
Will the DOJ charge Trump after Mar-a-Lago raid?
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his analysis on US politics.
How bad does the Mar-a-Lago document situation have to get before it becomes a problem for President Trump?
The answer is very bad and probably much worse than what we know of today. In the three weeks since the raid at Mar-a-Lago, we've learned very little about the contents of the documents that former President Trump is alleged to have improperly been storing in his Florida compound.
But we have learned, at a minimum, he kept classified documents outside of a secure facility. And the government is now alleging that Trump's legal team lied about the number and nature of the documents being stored there, which made it much more difficult for them to get the documents back and set up the premises for this sensational raid at Mar-a-Lago.
Even though he continues to maintain that he declassified at least some of the documents stored at his residence, the facts laid out by law enforcement so far don't look good for former President Trump. And even elected Republican officials, who rallied to his support and attacked the FBI in the wake of the raid, are much quieter than they were initially. But polling continues to show that President Trump is strong. A recent Ipsos poll found that Trump is more popular in the Republican Party than President Biden is in the Democratic Party, with 59% of Republicans saying Trump should be the Presidential nominee in 2024, versus only 44% of Democrats who want Biden to be their nominee.
Can Trump be charged? Well, that's a question for the DOJ, who will have to measure the political and institutional implications of charging a former and potentially future president, the risks of federal law enforcement being delegitimized and seen as political actors by huge parts of the country, the way they were after investigations into Hillary Clinton's emails and the Trump campaigns alleged ties with Russia. And they'll have to weigh the chances of proving beyond a reasonable doubt that not only were these papers improperly stored, but that President Trump himself, and not one of his staff or associates, was criminally responsible for the improper handling.
This still seems like a very tall order that would play out in a trial that would take place in the middle of a presidential campaign that is likely to start as soon as this November. Almost anyone else surely would be charged with a crime based on what we know today. But for years now, Trump has avoided the kinds of political and legal liabilities and consequences that would've brought other people down. And so far, this doesn't look much different. Thanks for watching. This has been US Politics In a Little Over 60 Seconds.