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Former President of the United States Donald J. Trump.
Georgia poses new dangers for Trump
Late Monday night, Donald Trump and 18 other people were indicted by a grand jury in Atlanta for conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election in the state of Georgia.
Trump will face 13 felony charges. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, and other alleged co-conspirators are charged with taking part in a “criminal enterprise” to flip the presidential election in a crucial state.
You can read the full indictment here.
Let’s cut to the chase: Trump has already been indicted three times – in New York City, Washington, DC, and Florida – and he faces dozens of other felony charges in those cases. And though it’s too soon to know the likelihood of a Trump conviction in any of them, there’s no evidence yet that they’ve dented his popularity. Here are the latest GOP primary numbers and matchups with President Joe Biden.
Is this case different? Might this one put Trump in real legal and political jeopardy?
In fact, Georgia may offer Trump a much tougher set of both legal and political problems. Here are three reasons why.
RICO
Georgia law features something called the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, widely known as RICO. Legal experts have warned that the broad powers this law gives a prosecutor – in this case, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis – can be used to charge Trump with all sorts of crimes related to the core charge of election fraud.
Under Georgia’s RICO law, prosecutors can bring such a case simply by showing the existence of an “enterprise” involved in at least two “qualifying” crimes that form part of a “pattern of racketeering activity.” He could, for example, be charged with solicitation to commit election fraud, perjury, forgery and/or improperly influencing government officials. These crimes need not have taken place in Georgia if their purpose was to overturn Georgia’s election results.
Crucially, the law doesn’t require the state to prove that Trump personally ordered, or even knew about, the commission of every crime in the indictment. It need only prove he led the enterprise that committed them.
Cameras rolling
In the interest of transparency, Georgia law requires there be cameras in the courtroom, unless a judge has a compelling reason not to allow them. This entire case may well play out on live television.
Yes, Trump is still riding high in Republican primary polls and running neck and neck with Biden. But undecided general election voters, particularly the independents Trump needs to win over in Nov. 2024, can now have a much closer look at the evidence against him. They won’t simply hear about it from Trump himself or from Trump-friendly media.
He also faces the risk that after months of televised daily legal grind, public fatigue with his long list of criminal charges will start to set in.
Unpardonable crimes
Despite all this, Trump may well be elected president next November, and the president of the United States can legally pardon convicted criminals. In theory, a president could pardon himself, though that idea has never been tested by US courts. But the charges facing Trump in Georgia are for state, not federal, crimes. No president can pardon someone convicted in state court.
Complicating matters further, under Georgia law, the governor couldn’t pardon a convicted president either. (There are already plenty of hard feelings between Trump and Governor Brian Kemp, who refused to help Trump reverse the state’s presidential election results in 2020.) If Trump were convicted in Georgia, only a five-member pardon board could absolve him. That’s a far more complicated problem.
The bottom line: Donald Trump has defied political and legal gravity for years. A poorly prepared prosecution, a friendly juror or two, and continued support from committed followers might well keep him aloft through 2024.
Or, Georgia might prove the band Radiohead right: “Gravity always wins.”
The Graphic Truth: Trump's indictment fundraising boom
Former President Donald Trump on Thursday pleaded not guilty to four counts linked to allegations that he tried to undermine the 2020 election result and remain in power despite losing the vote.
A judge set the first hearing for Aug. 28, just days after the first Republican presidential debate is set to take place – though the GOP frontrunner has suggested he may not participate in the debate.
Thursday’s appearance marked the third time in just four months that Trump has stood in a court and pleaded not guilty to criminal charges.
Still, not only do these legal woes not appear to be hurting Trump in the polls – the former president remains the frontrunner by a huge margin – but his joint fundraising committees have actually seen a boost from his previous indictments. The charges appear to be firing up his loyal base. (To be sure, that doesn’t translate to cash on hand as his legal quandaries appear to be draining the committee’s finances.)
We take a look at what Trump’s monthly joint fundraising committee has raised since he announced his reelection bid in Nov. 2022.
A protester holds a banner that says "Trump indicted."
What makes this Trump case different?
Former President Donald Trump will appear in federal court on Thursday after being indicted by federal prosecutors for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election result.
(For more on what’s in the indictment, see here.)
Amid a seemingly never-ending loop of Trump legal quandaries, what makes this case different from the former president’s other legal woes?
Many legal scholars have said the other two cases in which Trump has been indicted in recent months – relating to hush money payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign and the mishandling of classified documents – are more minor compared to the severity of the federal counts he’s now facing. Indeed, the federal indictment accuses him of “defrauding the federal government,” and, well, attempting to steal the presidency itself.
What’s more, the documents case (the trial is scheduled for May 2024) will be presided over by a Trump-appointed judge in deep-red Florida who has made legal decisions in the past beneficial to the man who gave her the job.
Conversely, this case will be heard by an Obama-tapped judge who has issued harsh sentences against Jan. 6 rioters and compelled the Trump team to grant Congress access to crucial materials during the course of its probe of the Capitol riots that became the cornerstone of the investigative committee’s findings.
Lawyers in the hush money payment case in New York, meanwhile, will need to prove that Trump falsified business records in order to cover a crime – which many legal scholars say will be hard to do. But in the election case, some of the Jan 6. rioters have already been tried – and found guilty – under the same statutes.
Finally, this is uncharted waters for the US. No president has ever been charged with trying to steal an election, and no prosecutor has ever had to navigate such unknown legal and political territory.
Both sides will try hard to determine what evidence can be used at trial, which, given Trump’s other court cases – and the sensitivity of this case – could still be many months away. Still, all four of the felonies Trump is facing carry potential prison terms of between 5-20 years. So, could he pardon himself if he were to win the 2024 election? There’s no clear-cut answer, experts say, given that no president has ever been hit with criminal charges.
An explosion caused by a police munition while supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump storm the U.S. Capitol Building.
Trump charged with trying to overturn 2020 election
“Despite having lost, the Defendant was determined to remain in power.” So reads Tuesday’s federal indictment of former President Donald Trump.
The first set of charges linked to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s probe of Trump’s dealings in the weeks and months leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots dropped late Tuesday, and the former president faces four felony counts for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election. These include: conspiracy to violate civil rights, conspiracy to defraud the American government, corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy to carry out such obstruction.
Along with these new charges, Trump is now facing three separate criminal cases – the other two concern hush money payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign and mishandling classified documents.
Thus far, he has denied wrongdoing related to the 2020 election. We expect more of the same when he appears in court on Thursday in Washington, DC, to answer the latest charges.
Will even more legal trouble hurt him at the polls? Unlikely. Trump is running neck and neck with President Joe Biden, according to a new Times/Siena poll, and he’s outpacing his nearest Republican rival for the nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis, by 37 points.
As Jon Lieber, managing director of Eurasia Group's US Practice, pointed out when Trump was indicted recently over his alleged mishandling of classified documents, these scandals don’t seem to hurt the former president. “[He] has survived multiple rounds of scandal, legal challenges, and ethical lapses that would've sunk any other politician.” Case in point: If Trump were to run against DeSantis today, he would, according to the Times/Siena poll, get 22% of his votes from those who believehe has committed federal crimes.
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis listens during the jury selection process at the Jury Assembly Room at Fulton County Courthouse in Atlanta.
Is the case against Trump in Georgia “ready to go?”
Speculation is rife that an indictment against former President Donald Trump in an ongoing Georgia investigation could be imminent after security barriers were recently erected outside Atlanta’s Fulton County Courthouse. Yesterday, a judge in Fulton County refused Trump’s demand that the courts throw out evidence and disqualify Fani T. Willis, the district attorney pursuing the investigation.
This development comes just days after a recent interview in which Willis said that “the work is accomplished ... we’re ready to go.”
Of all of Trump’s legal woes, the Georgia case – which is linked to allegations that the former president tried to pressure electoral officials to overturn the state’s 2020 election results – has been the most highly anticipated, largely due to the clarity of damning evidence.
The case was prompted after a leaked tape in Jan. 2021 revealed Trump calling on Georgia's top electoral official to “find” the votes – some 11,780 ballots – needed to get him over the finish line, though President Joe Biden ultimately won the state. Trump has since called it a “perfect phone call” but many legal scholars tend to disagree.
Indeed, the investigation also focuses on other high-profile GOP functionaries, including Trump’s former lawyer Rudy Giuliani, and 16 rank-and-file Republicans who falsified documents claiming Trump won the state. At least half of the 16 have since reached immunity deals with the DA’s teams (though precise details remain unknown) and could serve as witnesses.
Looking ahead: It’s unclear what the timing would be for a potential trial, but Trump’s schedule is certainly filling up. The former president is slated to go to trial in New York in March on charges linked to hush money payments made in the lead-up to the 2016 election. Then, in May, he faces federal charges related to his handling of classified documents. Meanwhile, the Justice Department is also looking into Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection, a case that reportedly has some overlap with the one in Georgia.
Though much is still up in the air, a few things remain clear. First, authorities in Georgia are clearly worried about protests and potential violence should an indictment be handed down against Trump in a purple state that will help determine the outcome of the 2024 vote.
Second, whatever happens, this case is unlikely to have much (or any) impact on Trump’s swelling popularity as he continues to cultivate a massive lead over other GOP hopefuls. Consider that a new NYT-Siena College poll released Monday shows Teflon Don with a whopping 37-point lead over Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis.
What’s more, Trump would still reap 22% of the vote from those who believe he has committed federal crimes, which is five points more than DeSantis would receive from the entire Republican electorate.Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Ron DeSantis to announce 2024 bid on Twitter
After weeks of speculation, it’s officially official: Gov. Ron DeSantis will announce on Wednesday that he’s running for the Republican nomination for president in 2024.
While we all knew this was coming, we didn’t know how it would happen. We now have our answer. The governor of Florida, who has sought to make a name for himself nationally by taking on Disney and the so-called “woke” literati, will announce his candidacy on Twitter Spaces alongside Elon Musk.
The conversation will be moderated by David Sacks, a DeSantis backer and Musk confidant, which raises the question of what Musk’s role will be. Some have speculated that he may formally endorse DeSantis’ bid for the White House.
It’s an interesting approach for DeSantis, who remains extremely popular in the Sunshine State but carries less weight on the national stage. Perhaps he’s hoping that having access to the tech titan’s 140 million Twitter followers will help him tap into a crowd that approves of Musk’s conservative, contrarian bent but is turned off by Trump’s combative political style. It could also help him curry favor with the masses that may migrate to Twitter after Tucker Carlson, recently axed by Fox News, announced that he would be taking his show to Musk’s platform.
Still, even if this strategy pays off somewhat, DeSantis will be the underdog as Trump remains the leading Republican candidate in poll after poll. For more on what DeSantis is up against, read our analysis here.
Former Republican President Donald Trump.
Trump hasn’t changed
In a town hall event hosted by CNN on Wednesday night, Donald Trump made it abundantly clear that he hasn’t changed one bit. The former president played many of his classic hits.
He called CNN anchor Kaitlan Collins “a nasty woman,” doubled down on erroneous claims that the 2020 election was stolen, and said that the Jan. 6 riot was carried out by so-called American patriots.
He dismissed a string of ongoing legal woes – including this week’s finding by a Manhattan jury that he was liable for sexual abuse and defamation of E. Jean Carroll, a former magazine columnist.
He also doubled down on Republicans playing hardball with the debt ceiling, saying that if the Biden administration doesn't make spending cuts then a government default is inevitable.
Crucially, after repeated probing, Trump wouldn’t say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war. Former NJ Governor Chris Christie, another likely GOP hopeful in 2024 who this week told GZERO Media that he will continue to support Ukraine, panned Trump for his response, calling him “Putin’s puppet.”
But did we really learn anything new? Trump is Trump, and few people expected him to have changed his stripes. The reception he received from the New Hampshire-based audience, including when he said that he’d pardon Jan. 6 rioters, however, shows that the GOP base is still firmly on his side.
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Trump vs. Biden: Round two
It’s on. President Joe Biden released a kick-off reelection ad on Tuesday, which means both he and his predecessor Donald Trump have now officially thrown their hats in the ring for the 2024 presidential race, kicking off one hell of a showdown.
Most Americans don't want either candidate to run again, but if polls – and vibes – are anything to go by, that’s what they’ll get. But what’s the same and what’s shifted since 2020, and how might these factors shape the 2024 campaign?
The more things change …
What pandemic? The last time Biden and Trump were both vying for the Oval Office, the number one issue for many voters was pandemic containment and recovery.
That’s no longer the case. For most Americans, who are now concerned with inflation and bread-and-butter issues, the pandemic feels like a distant memory.
Back in 2020, the pandemic was good fodder for Biden, who used Trump’s chaotic COVID response to cast himself as a level-headed policy man who follows expert advice. Indeed, without COVID casting a shadow over … everything, Biden won’t be able to campaign from his Delaware basement this time around, but will have to shuttle around the country to attend town halls and rallies – something his likely opponent is very good at.
Role reversal. Incumbency is usually an advantage for US presidential candidates. Consider that Trump was just the third president in 60 years to lose reelection.
While Biden was focused largely on panning Trump’s record in 2020, this time he will seek to make the election about his legislative wins – including a big infrastructure package that had bipartisan support – to get independent voters onside.
Donald Trump’s legal woes. Trump has always coveted controversy, but his current legal predicament is a whole new ball game. Earlier this month, the former president was charged by a Manhattan grand jury on 34 counts of business fraud. And the cases – and potential cases – are piling up.
Biden will certainly use this as a cudgel, but it’s unlikely to be a winning strategy for Democrats. So far, there’s no indication that these cases will hurt Trump politically, with his polling numbers remaining steady despite being the first US president in history to be charged with a crime.
The more they stay the same …
Biden isn’t getting any younger. In 2020, voters were already expressing concern about Biden’s age and mental faculties. His propensity for gaffes and lifelong stutter certainly didn’t help.
Ageist attacks will only intensify on the 2024 campaign trail. A bullish Trump will surely seek to make a big deal of the fact that Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term. (For context, Ronald Reagan was 77 at the end of his presidency.) But Trump, at age 76 himself, may also be subjected to age-related critiques on the campaign trail.
Trump: GOP King. Despite the stack of op-eds published in recent months suggesting that Trump’s hold over the Republican Party is waning, poll after poll suggests that he would still thump any wannabe president in a GOP primary. A whopping two-thirds of GOP voters back him despite his legal woes, according to a new NBC poll. Indeed, watching Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – who is expected to announce his candidacy soon – awkwardly navigate Trump’s special status within the Republican Party reflects the former president’s influence over the GOP base.
Still, while Trump’s no-holds-barred approach might resonate in a feisty Republican primary, results from the 2021 midterm elections suggest that the Trump playbook doesn’t necessarily resonate with independent voters in a general election.
Enthusiasm gap. Trump has consolidated a group of die-hard supporters over the past seven years, and they remain as loyal as ever. Biden, on the other hand, had an enthusiasm problem in 2020 (though the clearing of the Democratic field helped get him over the finish line) – and this continues to be the case.
With this in mind, Democrats will be looking to boost turnout among independents by undermining the former president’s electability pitch, so expect Donald Trump to take up a lot of oxygen in the months ahead.