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The Disinformation Election: Will the wildfire of conspiracy theories impact the vote?
Trust in institutions is at an all-time low, and only 44% of Americans have confidence in the honesty of elections. Distrust and election-related disinformation are leaving society vulnerable to conspiracy theories.
Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, notes that American democracy is in crisis largely because “one thing not in short supply this election season: conspiracy theories.”
As part of GZERO Media’s election coverage, we are tracking the impact of disinformation and conspiracy theories on democracy. To get a sense of how this election may be pulled down a dark and dangerous rabbit hole, click here for our interactive guide to conspiracy theories.
US Capitol under attack on January 6th.
Ian Bremmer: American democracy at risk thanks to conspiracy theories
American democracy is in crisis, says Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer, largely because “one thing not in short supply this election season: conspiracy theories.”
Trust in institutions – from the Supreme Court to public schools – is at an all-time low, and only 44% of Americans have confidence in the honesty of elections. Distrust and election-related disinformation are leaving society vulnerable to conspiracy theories.
Historically, conspiracy theories have been most likely to crop up during times of social, political, or economic upheaval — times when people need to make sense of a chaotic situation. And US society is ripe for that today, with 70% of Americans saying they believe the nation is in crisis and at risk of failing.
We’re already seeing “the explosion of belief in things that aren’t so,” says Bremmer.
Case in point: A jury of his peers recently found former President Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the so-called hush money criminal case. Rather than settling the debate over Trump’s guilt or innocence, however, it has breathed life into old and new conspiracy theories.
Republicans said the verdict was evidence that the deep state had rigged the justice system – and the election – against Trump. In a new twist, a whopping 80% of them agreed the charges were filed against the former president at the direction of the White House.
Conspiracy theory mania, says Bremmer, is taking off thanks to “Trump actively campaigning on Joe Biden rigging the criminal justice system and the 2020 election, conspiracy-heavy Robert F Kennedy Jr. as the most popular third-party candidate in decades, huge numbers of bots promoting disinformation on social media, and algorithmic promotion of far left and right political extremes driving citizen-as-consumer attention.”
So conspiracy theories aren’t as fringe as they once were. They are taking root in the hearts and minds of our family members, colleagues, and friends. Critically, they are influencing political outcomes around the world.
That’s why GZERO is offering a deep dive into conspiracy theories, with an interactive experience entitled: The Disinformation Election: Will the wildfire of conspiracy theories impact the vote?
You can’t debunk these theories unless you understand what’s fueling them. Join us as we take you down the rabbit hole of some of the most influential conspiracy theories, from the Great Replacement Theory and the 2020 stolen election to the anti-vaccine movement and QAnon, to find the kernels of truth that help them spread like wildfire.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he makes a statement to the media outside the court room at a Manhattan courthouse, during the trial of himself, his adult sons, the Trump Organization and others in a civil fraud case brought by state Attorney General Letitia James, in New York City, U.S., October 2, 2023.
Will Trump’s “sham” talk go unchecked?
While former President Donald Trump appeared fairly calm in a Lower Manhattan courtroom on Monday during the first day of his civil fraud trial, outside the chambers he was anything but.
He started off the morning telling reporters at the courthouse the trial is “a scam and a sham” and a "continuation of the single greatest witch hunt of all time” that amounts to “election interference.” He also called New York Attorney General Letitia James a “racist.”
By lunch, he was calling Judge Arthur Engoron a “disgrace,” “an operative” for the Democrats, and a “rogue judge” who should be disbarred. He also elaborated that Attorney General James was a “corrupt” and “terrible person.”
Given that this is a bench trial, through which Judge Engoron alone will decide just how heavy a hammer might fall on Trump’s finances, the former president’s PR strategy appears … questionable. Trump stands to lose the ability to conduct business in New York state and could face a $250 million penalty. That’s a big hit, even for a (putative) billionaire, and Trump has plenty more legal expenses to look forward to in 2024, on top of running a presidential campaign.
But are any of Trump’s verbal attacks going to cost him in the courtroom?
Not likely, according to Harvard Law School Professor Emeritus Laurence Tribe. In fact, they could help with his money problem.
“His unhinged statements attacking Justice Engoron, [Attorney General] Letitia James, and the trial itself will undoubtedly help him raise money and solidify his following among the hard core of the MAGA contingent but will have no effect on this civil trial,” he says. Even if Engoron and James find the attacks unpleasant, Tribe says, they will not increase Trump’s chances of incurring the heaviest possible penalties.
And despite Trump’s vitriolic language, Tribe says nothing constitutes actionable libel as his aspersions are “statements of opinion, not demonstrable false allegations of fact.”
The trial is set to run for three months but may end earlier. Trump said he may attend more days of the trial, but that could get old, fast – after all, he has a few other court dates to look forward to in the year ahead:
Jan. 15, 2024: The trial for author E. Jean Carroll’s defamation case against Trump opens. Trump is alleged to have defamed Carroll by destroying her reputation after she revealed he had sexually assaulted her in 1996, for which a jury found him responsible for sexual abuse in May. He’s already been found liable, and this trial will determine damages.
*March 4, 2024: The date Trump’s trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 election opens. This is the Jan. 6 case brought by special prosecutor Jack Smith.
March 25, 2024: Trump goes on trial for allegedly directing his underling Michael Cohen to make hush money payments to Stephanie Clifford, a pornographic actress who performs under the name Stormy Daniels after Trump had an affair with her in 2006. Cohen pleaded guilty to campaign finance violations related to this case in 2018 and was sentenced to three years in prison.
May 20, 2024: The trial over Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified documents is due to start. This is the one where he allegedly crammed thousands of documents into what appeared to be a gold-plated bathroom, among other allegations of stealing and hiding classified government papers.
TBD: Trump’s trial in Georgia over allegations he attempted to pressure state officials into submitting false election results during the 2020 election. There’s been some scheduling issues as two of the codefendants split their cases from Trump’s in order to secure a more speedy trial. Remember that phone call where Trump tells state officials he needed them to find 11,780 votes? That’s this one.*Correction: An earlier version of this article stated prosecutors were seeking a Jan. 2 start date for Trump's trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 election. In fact, Judge Tanya Chutkan has since set a March 4 start date.
Former President of the United States Donald J. Trump.
Georgia poses new dangers for Trump
Late Monday night, Donald Trump and 18 other people were indicted by a grand jury in Atlanta for conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election in the state of Georgia.
Trump will face 13 felony charges. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, and other alleged co-conspirators are charged with taking part in a “criminal enterprise” to flip the presidential election in a crucial state.
You can read the full indictment here.
Let’s cut to the chase: Trump has already been indicted three times – in New York City, Washington, DC, and Florida – and he faces dozens of other felony charges in those cases. And though it’s too soon to know the likelihood of a Trump conviction in any of them, there’s no evidence yet that they’ve dented his popularity. Here are the latest GOP primary numbers and matchups with President Joe Biden.
Is this case different? Might this one put Trump in real legal and political jeopardy?
In fact, Georgia may offer Trump a much tougher set of both legal and political problems. Here are three reasons why.
RICO
Georgia law features something called the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, widely known as RICO. Legal experts have warned that the broad powers this law gives a prosecutor – in this case, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis – can be used to charge Trump with all sorts of crimes related to the core charge of election fraud.
Under Georgia’s RICO law, prosecutors can bring such a case simply by showing the existence of an “enterprise” involved in at least two “qualifying” crimes that form part of a “pattern of racketeering activity.” He could, for example, be charged with solicitation to commit election fraud, perjury, forgery and/or improperly influencing government officials. These crimes need not have taken place in Georgia if their purpose was to overturn Georgia’s election results.
Crucially, the law doesn’t require the state to prove that Trump personally ordered, or even knew about, the commission of every crime in the indictment. It need only prove he led the enterprise that committed them.
Cameras rolling
In the interest of transparency, Georgia law requires there be cameras in the courtroom, unless a judge has a compelling reason not to allow them. This entire case may well play out on live television.
Yes, Trump is still riding high in Republican primary polls and running neck and neck with Biden. But undecided general election voters, particularly the independents Trump needs to win over in Nov. 2024, can now have a much closer look at the evidence against him. They won’t simply hear about it from Trump himself or from Trump-friendly media.
He also faces the risk that after months of televised daily legal grind, public fatigue with his long list of criminal charges will start to set in.
Unpardonable crimes
Despite all this, Trump may well be elected president next November, and the president of the United States can legally pardon convicted criminals. In theory, a president could pardon himself, though that idea has never been tested by US courts. But the charges facing Trump in Georgia are for state, not federal, crimes. No president can pardon someone convicted in state court.
Complicating matters further, under Georgia law, the governor couldn’t pardon a convicted president either. (There are already plenty of hard feelings between Trump and Governor Brian Kemp, who refused to help Trump reverse the state’s presidential election results in 2020.) If Trump were convicted in Georgia, only a five-member pardon board could absolve him. That’s a far more complicated problem.
The bottom line: Donald Trump has defied political and legal gravity for years. A poorly prepared prosecution, a friendly juror or two, and continued support from committed followers might well keep him aloft through 2024.
Or, Georgia might prove the band Radiohead right: “Gravity always wins.”
The Graphic Truth: Trump's indictment fundraising boom
Former President Donald Trump on Thursday pleaded not guilty to four counts linked to allegations that he tried to undermine the 2020 election result and remain in power despite losing the vote.
A judge set the first hearing for Aug. 28, just days after the first Republican presidential debate is set to take place – though the GOP frontrunner has suggested he may not participate in the debate.
Thursday’s appearance marked the third time in just four months that Trump has stood in a court and pleaded not guilty to criminal charges.
Still, not only do these legal woes not appear to be hurting Trump in the polls – the former president remains the frontrunner by a huge margin – but his joint fundraising committees have actually seen a boost from his previous indictments. The charges appear to be firing up his loyal base. (To be sure, that doesn’t translate to cash on hand as his legal quandaries appear to be draining the committee’s finances.)
We take a look at what Trump’s monthly joint fundraising committee has raised since he announced his reelection bid in Nov. 2022.
A protester holds a banner that says "Trump indicted."
What makes this Trump case different?
Former President Donald Trump will appear in federal court on Thursday after being indicted by federal prosecutors for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election result.
(For more on what’s in the indictment, see here.)
Amid a seemingly never-ending loop of Trump legal quandaries, what makes this case different from the former president’s other legal woes?
Many legal scholars have said the other two cases in which Trump has been indicted in recent months – relating to hush money payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign and the mishandling of classified documents – are more minor compared to the severity of the federal counts he’s now facing. Indeed, the federal indictment accuses him of “defrauding the federal government,” and, well, attempting to steal the presidency itself.
What’s more, the documents case (the trial is scheduled for May 2024) will be presided over by a Trump-appointed judge in deep-red Florida who has made legal decisions in the past beneficial to the man who gave her the job.
Conversely, this case will be heard by an Obama-tapped judge who has issued harsh sentences against Jan. 6 rioters and compelled the Trump team to grant Congress access to crucial materials during the course of its probe of the Capitol riots that became the cornerstone of the investigative committee’s findings.
Lawyers in the hush money payment case in New York, meanwhile, will need to prove that Trump falsified business records in order to cover a crime – which many legal scholars say will be hard to do. But in the election case, some of the Jan 6. rioters have already been tried – and found guilty – under the same statutes.
Finally, this is uncharted waters for the US. No president has ever been charged with trying to steal an election, and no prosecutor has ever had to navigate such unknown legal and political territory.
Both sides will try hard to determine what evidence can be used at trial, which, given Trump’s other court cases – and the sensitivity of this case – could still be many months away. Still, all four of the felonies Trump is facing carry potential prison terms of between 5-20 years. So, could he pardon himself if he were to win the 2024 election? There’s no clear-cut answer, experts say, given that no president has ever been hit with criminal charges.
An explosion caused by a police munition while supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump storm the U.S. Capitol Building.
Trump charged with trying to overturn 2020 election
“Despite having lost, the Defendant was determined to remain in power.” So reads Tuesday’s federal indictment of former President Donald Trump.
The first set of charges linked to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s probe of Trump’s dealings in the weeks and months leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots dropped late Tuesday, and the former president faces four felony counts for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election. These include: conspiracy to violate civil rights, conspiracy to defraud the American government, corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy to carry out such obstruction.
Along with these new charges, Trump is now facing three separate criminal cases – the other two concern hush money payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign and mishandling classified documents.
Thus far, he has denied wrongdoing related to the 2020 election. We expect more of the same when he appears in court on Thursday in Washington, DC, to answer the latest charges.
Will even more legal trouble hurt him at the polls? Unlikely. Trump is running neck and neck with President Joe Biden, according to a new Times/Siena poll, and he’s outpacing his nearest Republican rival for the nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis, by 37 points.
As Jon Lieber, managing director of Eurasia Group's US Practice, pointed out when Trump was indicted recently over his alleged mishandling of classified documents, these scandals don’t seem to hurt the former president. “[He] has survived multiple rounds of scandal, legal challenges, and ethical lapses that would've sunk any other politician.” Case in point: If Trump were to run against DeSantis today, he would, according to the Times/Siena poll, get 22% of his votes from those who believe he has committed federal crimes.
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis listens during the jury selection process at the Jury Assembly Room at Fulton County Courthouse in Atlanta.
Is the case against Trump in Georgia “ready to go?”
Speculation is rife that an indictment against former President Donald Trump in an ongoing Georgia investigation could be imminent after security barriers were recently erected outside Atlanta’s Fulton County Courthouse. Yesterday, a judge in Fulton County refused Trump’s demand that the courts throw out evidence and disqualify Fani T. Willis, the district attorney pursuing the investigation.
This development comes just days after a recent interview in which Willis said that “the work is accomplished ... we’re ready to go.”
Of all of Trump’s legal woes, the Georgia case – which is linked to allegations that the former president tried to pressure electoral officials to overturn the state’s 2020 election results – has been the most highly anticipated, largely due to the clarity of damning evidence.
The case was prompted after a leaked tape in Jan. 2021 revealed Trump calling on Georgia's top electoral official to “find” the votes – some 11,780 ballots – needed to get him over the finish line, though President Joe Biden ultimately won the state. Trump has since called it a “perfect phone call” but many legal scholars tend to disagree.
Indeed, the investigation also focuses on other high-profile GOP functionaries, including Trump’s former lawyer Rudy Giuliani, and 16 rank-and-file Republicans who falsified documents claiming Trump won the state. At least half of the 16 have since reached immunity deals with the DA’s teams (though precise details remain unknown) and could serve as witnesses.
Looking ahead: It’s unclear what the timing would be for a potential trial, but Trump’s schedule is certainly filling up. The former president is slated to go to trial in New York in March on charges linked to hush money payments made in the lead-up to the 2016 election. Then, in May, he faces federal charges related to his handling of classified documents. Meanwhile, the Justice Department is also looking into Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection, a case that reportedly has some overlap with the one in Georgia.
Though much is still up in the air, a few things remain clear. First, authorities in Georgia are clearly worried about protests and potential violence should an indictment be handed down against Trump in a purple state that will help determine the outcome of the 2024 vote.
Second, whatever happens, this case is unlikely to have much (or any) impact on Trump’s swelling popularity as he continues to cultivate a massive lead over other GOP hopefuls. Consider that a new NYT-Siena College poll released Monday shows Teflon Don with a whopping 37-point lead over Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis.
What’s more, Trump would still reap 22% of the vote from those who believe he has committed federal crimes, which is five points more than DeSantis would receive from the entire Republican electorate.