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President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at Pullman Yards in Atlanta, Georgia, on March 9, 2024.
Biden vs. Trump redux is official
They did it again. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mustered enough delegates in the primaries to secure their respective party nominations heading into this November’s presidential election — not that anyone expected otherwise.
For Biden, it was his win in Georgia last night that clinched it for the Democrats, while for Trump it was the GOP tally in Washington state. The rematch of 2020 comes despite both men’s unpopularity: Recent polling has Biden’s disapproval rating at 56.5%, while Trump’s unfavorable rating is nearly as high at 52.5%.
What’s next: The matchup that has looked inevitable for months is officially underway, but it’s unclear when, or whether, Biden will face off with his predecessor in debates. Trump has said, “I’m ready to go, ANY TIME, ANY PLACE!” Biden has appeared open to the idea, noting that it “depends on his behavior.”
In the meantime, expect plenty of campaign events and advertisements focused on both men’s ages, abortion, the economy, illegal immigration, and entitlements (more on that below).
A voter takes a sticker after casting their ballot during early voting, a day ahead of the Super Tuesday primary election, at the San Francisco City Hall voting center in San Francisco, California, U.S. March 4, 2024.
Why Super Tuesday still matters
Biden and Trump have swept the primaries so far, with Biden running unopposed by any major candidate and Trump beating his sole rival – Nikki Haley – in eight of the nine GOP primaries so far. Trump leads Haley by 201 delegates.
Wait, what’s a delegate? Americans don’t actually vote for presidents. Delegates do.
A ticked box for a candidate on a primary ballot is a vote for a delegate who supports that candidate and will vote for them at the party convention. In the primaries, candidates aim to gain enough delegates to clinch the nomination – 1,215 for the GOP and 1,986 for the Democrats this year.
Why does Super Tuesday matter? This year’s is worth tracking to see what is motivating voters. We’ll be watching to see if the trends in the early primaries continue like Democrats voting against Biden over US policy in Gaza, or if he continues to lose support among young Black and Hispanic voters.
SCOTUS gives Trump the green light. Trump’s legal woes were the greatest threat to his nomination until the Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the 14th Amendment does not give states the ability to bar Trump from the ballot and decided to hear his appeal on presidential immunity – delaying the DC Federal indictment until at least June.
With Trump free of any immediate threat of criminal indictment, he has the potential to be an even bigger threat to Biden, especially among moderates in swing states. Trump is currently seen as more trustworthy than Biden on economy, immigration, and crime, the biggest issues for moderate voters in swing states.
According to Eurasia Group’s US director Jon Lieber, Trump is looking like the new favorite to win the general election.
“It is hard not to look at the public opinion data, Biden‘s low approval ratings, and the fact that his biggest liability – his age – is only going to become more of an issue through the eight months of a difficult campaign, and not see that Trump is the favorite right now.”
Michigan’s primary mattered, here’s why
Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden won their primaries in Michigan yesterday, but the vote revealed vulnerabilities for Joe Biden that could come back to haunt him in November.
Why Michigan mattered: It was Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in Michigan that sealed the 2016 election, and Joe Biden’s triumph over Trump there and in other Upper Midwestern states in 2020 that decided the election. In all probability, it will play a decisive role this November
Michigan is also home to the largest Arab-American population in the United States. After a concerted campaign in protest of the Biden administration’s policy toward Israel and Gaza, 13 percent of Democratic primary voters chose “uncommitted” last night. In Dearborn and Hamtramck, two of the Michigan cities with the highest concentrations of Arab Americans, “uncommitted” won 56 and 61 percent of the Democratic vote respectively. Significant portions of Michigan’s college towns also voted uncommitted in protest, foreshadowing how many young, progressive voters are angry about American support for Israel.
GOP voters once again rejected Nikki Haley in favor of Donald Trump. Haley lost for a fifth time against the former president, winning 27% of the vote against Trump’s 68%. She has vowed to stay in the race through Super Tuesday, where the lion's share of the delegates are up for grabs.
Graphic Truth: Why are American elections so long?
Former President Donald Trump was the first major candidate to launch his campaign for the 2024 presidential election cycle – on Nov. 15, 2022, roughly two years before Election Day. The US puts no limits on the length of campaigns, which leaves the door open for massive amounts of campaign spending and has the potential to leave voters exhausted by the time they head to the polls.
Many other countries have laws restricting how long candidates can campaign. In Japan, campaigns do not officially start until 12 days before the election. The longest election campaign ever in Canada lasted 78 days in 2015. The Great White North now limits campaigns to 50 days at most.
Should the US follow their lead? Do American voters really need more than a year of campaigning to make up their minds about who will be president for the next four years?
President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa attends the second day of the 37th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union at the African Union.
South Africa to hold May elections
The election will be a referendum on the ANC, which has been mired in controversy over record levels of crime, slow economic growth, unemployment, and rolling blackouts. Alongside the election announcement, the ANC bumped up social benefits in an attempt to raise polling numbers.
The ANC’s biggest rival, the Democratic Alliance, is trying to build a coalition of smaller parties to break the ANC's majority. The third biggest party, Economic Freedom Fighters, is not considering joining the opposition coalition and is eating into ANC’s support following its promise to double social benefits if elected.
Right now, opinion polls show ANC approval ratings below 50%. If this translates into votes, it will mean the ANC will have to form the country’s first-ever coalition government to keep Ramaphosa — a political protege of Mandela — as president for a second and final five-year term.India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi attends the inauguration of the BAPS Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, February 14, 2024.
India cracks down on anonymous donations before elections
The Supreme Court in India, the country with the most expensive elections in the world, has outlawed anonymous political donations ahead of national elections this spring.
The ruling, which dropped on Thursday, strikes down the electoral bond scheme concocted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. It allowed individuals and companies to send unlimited donations to political parties without the need to disclose their identity.
The ruling was praised by every political party besides the BJP, which received 85% of all donations and 90% of corporate donations in 2023.
Many criticize the decision as coming too late. The BJP has already amassed an extraordinary stockpile of anonymous donations – and it’s expected to maintain its majority because of its deep pockets and Modi’s strong approval ratings.
But the ruling brings political corruption to the forefront of the conversation in a country where voter bribery is common, and it could make future elections more fair and transparent.
United States President Joe Biden delivers remarks at the Black History Month Reception at the White House in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, February 6, 2024.
Border bill fails in Senate: the jockeying intensifies
President Joe Biden is blaming Donald Trump for killing a Senate bill on Ukraine support and border security on Wednesday.
The bill would have delivered billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine and Israel along with stricter border security – including asylum restrictions, a major stated goal for the GOP.
The bill looked like it might have enough bipartisan support to pass until Trump weighed in to trash it. In the end, only four Republicans voted “yes”.
The bill would have been a win for Biden at a time when the Trump-led GOP are keen to amplify their message that President Biden is neglecting the border to a “constitutionally violating” degree.
Biden is trying to flip the script by blaming Trump for the demise of the border deal, aid to Ukraine, support for Israel, and relief for Gaza – all at once.
Four Democrats also voted against the bill, including majority leader Chuck Schumer, who, after seeing GOP support evaporate, cast a “no” vote as a tactical move allowing him to quickly call for a vote on the foreign aid portion alone. Doing so forces the GOP to decide whether to block Ukraine and Israel's aid twice in one day.
A sign at the flagship event of a nationwide march for voting rights on the 58th anniversary of the March on Washington in August, 2021.
15th Amendment as relevant as ever on 154th birthday
Saturday marks 154 years since the ratification of the 15th Amendment to the US Constitution – Feb. 3, 1870 – which guaranteed Black men the right to vote. Given it’s Black History Month and an election year, this makes it the perfect time to revisit this vital moment in US history.
Though the amendment was part of an effort to set the US on a more equitable path in the post-Civil War era, it didn’t take long after ratification for local governments to institute racist policies – Jim Crow laws – aimed at disenfranchising Black people.
Nearly 100 years after it was ratified, the federal government finally moved to protect the rights enshrined in the 15th Amendment with the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which barred racial discrimination in voting and helped dismantle Jim Crow laws.
But legal experts and rights groups in recent years have raised alarm bells about ongoing threats to the Voting Rights Act and court decisions that have weakened it. And despite a June 2023 Supreme Court decision that upheld a key provision of the law, many contend that more must be done to protect voting rights and prevent discriminatory practices.
People of color made up 30% of eligible voters in the US in 2020 but represented just over 22% of all votes cast, according to a new study from the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California. “There’s outright voter-suppression efforts still happening in the US,” says Mindy Romero, the lead author of the report and director of the center.
Research shows people of color continue to face an array of disparities and challenges when it comes to voting, ranging from longer wait times on Election Day than white voters and mass voter roll purges to being disproportionately impacted by strict voter ID laws.
Indeed, more than a century and a half after the 15th Amendment came to be, it seems the US still has a long way to go in the fight to eliminate racial barriers at the ballot box.