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A view of the city of Tehran, Iran, amid pollution.
Hard Numbers: Tehran’s pollution closes schools, Social media swing vote, Militia controls Myanmar-Bangladesh border, Signs of Assad-era torture, Big boost for Ukraine
10 million: Officials in Tehran, a city of more than 10 million people, closed elementary schools and kindergartens on Saturday and Sunday because of dangerous levels of air pollution. On Tuesday, they announced the closure of all governmental offices, universities, and schools on Wednesday and Thursday. Schools will move classes online. In Iran, schools are generally open from Saturday to Wednesday.
45: A new survey found that 45% of “Swing voters” in the US presidential election reported getting most of their news from social media. Just 39% cited local news as their primary source of information, and 38% cited broadcast news.
168: A militia fighting on behalf of the Buddhist Rakhine minority group has driven Myanmar’s army out of its last outpost along the country’s 168-mile border with Bangladesh. This rebel group now claims control of the northern part of Rakhine state, where locals have pushed for independence.
40: The HTS rebels who now control Syria’s government say their search of a hospital morgue has discovered 40 bodies that show signs of torture by former dictator Bashar Assad’s security forces. Human rights groups say more than 100,000 people have disappeared since Assad ordered the 2011 crackdown on protests that ignited the country’s civil war.
20 billion: The US confirmed that it has sent $20 billion to Ukraine from seized Russian assets as part of a $50 billion G7 package to make Russia “bear the costs of its illegal war, instead of taxpayers," in the words of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The US Treasury transferred the $20 billion to a World Bank fund; money handled by the World Bank cannot be used for military purposes. Instead, it is intended to be used for hospitals and emergency services. The move comes weeks before the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has said he would cut aid to Ukraine.
Graphic Truth: America's podcast boom
Is 2024 the Podcast Election? For the first time, US presidential candidates are sitting for lengthy interviews on popular podcasts, while doing fewer traditional spots with mainstream media.
Donald Trump, for example, has appeared on pods hosted by, among others, controversial gaming streamer Adin Ross, YouTube influencer Logan Paul, pro-wrestler The Undertaker, comedian and actor Theo Von, computer scientist Lex Fridman and, of course, Joe Rogan, who boasts the largest podcast audience in America.
Those all cater chiefly to young men – no accident given Trump’s focus on that demographic in an election increasingly shaped by notions of gender.
Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has appeared on Alex Cooper’s “Call Her Daddy,” the top women-focused podcast, as well as “Club Shay Shay,” hosted by pro Football hall of famer Shannon Sharpe; “All the Smoke,” hosted by two former NBA champs; and “The Howard Stern Show.”
Whether the vice president too will appear on Rogan is unclear. As of Tuesday, Rogan said she hadn’t met his terms, a striking illustration of the podcaster’s power: Most traditional media would leap to accommodate a sitting VP.
Why the pod? One answer is: In a polarized environment where the credibility of traditional media has cratered, podcasters reach large subcultures of American voters who see them as authentic and trustworthy. And the conversational podcast setup is generally friendlier to candidates than traditional media interviews.
Another answer is: Because lots of people listen to podcasts now. Here’s a graphic showing the staggering growth in podcast listenership since the medium first arose in the mid-2000s, and a breakdown of listenership in 2024 alone.
How will the podcast shape the election? That remains to be heard, as it were – but we, like nearly half of America these days, are listening more closely than ever.Bloc by Bloc: America’s Changing Voting Patterns
This GZERO 2024 election series looks at America’s changing voting patterns, bloc by bloc.
- Harris and Trump scramble to reach Latinos
- The Arab-American vote in the shadow of Oct. 7
- The gaping gender divide in the 2024 election
- Can Dems win back the working class?
- How the youth and senior votes will influence the US election (pre-Biden withdrawal)
- Biden and Trump fight over a changing “Latino Vote” (pre-Biden withdrawal)
- Trump gambles to woo Black voters
Iran's next move: Interview with VP Javad Zarif
As the anniversary of the Oct 7th Hamas attacks approaches, tensions in the Middle East are reaching a boiling point. Israel has ramped up its military operations against Iran-backed forces, launching devastating airstrikes across Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s ground offensive into Lebanon has further escalated the conflict, as has Iran sending a wave of missiles towards Israel.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Iran's new Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif just days before the Nasrallah assassination and Iran’s response. In their conversation, Zarif delves into the far-reaching ramifications of the ongoing conflict. He says, “So the myth of Israeli invincibility is gone. And I think that's a major loss for Israel.” Zarif also speaks about what he calls Iran’s unwavering stance on its right to self-defense and its determination to not fall into Israel’s “trap.”
And with an upcoming election, Zarif weighs in on the prospects of a Harris or Trump administration and addresses accusations of Iranian meddling. Zarif notes, “I don't have any preference. But some may prefer him in Iran. Some may believe that he is more in the national interest of Iran.”
Although Iran’s new president has promised to find common ground with the West, recent events have made it clear that the geopolitical tightrope remains perilously thin. As tensions continue to flare, the world waits and asks: What is Iran's next move?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Are US threats making Iran rethink retaliation against Israel? ›
- Will Israel strike Iran – and if so, how hard? ›
- Israel invades southern Lebanon, threatens Iran ›
- Iran launches ballistic missiles at Israel in revenge attack ›
- Israel hits Iran directly – what next? ›
- How October 7th changed Israel and the Middle East - GZERO Media ›
- Israel's next move - GZERO Media ›
Campus protests spill over into US political sphere
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we are watching in US Politics this week: It's still the campus protests for the second week in a row.
This has been a pretty dominant story in US Politics, despite everything going on in the world. Antony Blinken trying to get peace in the Middle East. Donald Trump on trial. These campus protests have dominated headlines and are starting to spill over into the political sphere.
You've seen a number of Republican governors like in Georgia over the weekend, gleefully moving the police in, in order to crack down on a protest at Emory University. The University of North Carolina system has come out strongly against campus protests, and conservatives are rallying to support a bunch of frat boys that decided to defend the American flag against some protesters who wanted to put up a different flag.
Ben Sasse, former senator from Nebraska, is now the president of the University of Florida system, getting kudos online for his strong response. And you're getting protests that are turning increasingly violent at UCLA, at Columbia where a bunch of students occupied administrative building, leading Mayor Eric Adams to send in the police. President Biden this week gave an address to the nation on the student protests, asking for everybody to please calm down, clearly trying to align themselves with who are basically the normies of American politics who don't like this kind of campus protests and violence.
And Donald Trump getting in the game, trying to take advantage of the protests by claiming these are all left wing agitators who are aligned with the Democratic Party. This theme is going to continue throughout the campaign if the protests are sustained, which is, of course, a big question marks with campuses going home for their summer vacation in the next few weeks. So likely the story dies down but will come back to life later in the summer with any protests planned around the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
And of course, any protests that are launched on campuses when they come back in the fall, much closer to the election date. One thing this could be a preview of is organized activism against Donald Trump. Should he win the White House and immediately take actions to crack down on immigration in the United States, or any other hot bit social issue. You now have an organized protest movement that could carry itself into 2025, in the event of a Trump win.
- Campus chaos puts pressure on Biden ›
- Live and kicking? Campus activism in North America ›
- Chaos erupts overnight on US campuses. What’s next for student protesters? ›
- From the inside out: Is Columbia’s campus crisis calming down? ›
- Why Israel's Netanyahu continues to antagonize Biden on Gaza - GZERO Media ›
- Why Israel's Netanyahu continues to antagonize Biden on Gaza - GZERO Media ›
- Why Israel's Netanyahu continues to antagonize Biden on Gaza - GZERO Media ›
- Why Israel's Netanyahu continues to antagonize Biden on Gaza - GZERO Media ›
Ian Explains: Who does China and Russia want to win the US election, Biden or Trump?
What do America’s biggest adversaries have to gain–and lose–from the US presidential election in November? The 2024 Donald Trump vs Joe Biden rematch will be the first time in US history that candidates from both major parties have sat in the Oval Office. So Russia and China have a pretty good idea of what a second term from either candidate might look like, as well as a vested interest in manipulating the outcome in their favor, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
From Russia’s perspective, the Kremlin has a long and documented history of influencing US elections for Trump. Intelligence agencies have confirmed Russia’s attempts to manipulate the 2016 and 2020 elections in his favor using social media bots, misinformation, bogus news sites, and hacking the Democratic National Committee’s emails. But now, intelligence experts and government officials warn China is copying Russia’s playbook, spreading conspiracy theories and misinformation online to amplify support for President Trump and sow distrust among American voters.
Yet Trump regularly attacks China on the campaign trail. He’s accused Beijing of unfair trade practices and currency manipulation. During the pandemic he publicly called Covid-19 the “China flu” and his administration imposed billions of dollars in tariffs on Chinese imports.
Why would Beijing support a candidate so openly hostile to its interests? Watch Ian Explains to find out why both China and Russia are eager for a Trump win in 2024.
Watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer online and at US public television (check local listings). Subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn notifications on to get alerts when new episodes are published.
- NATO has a Trump problem ›
- For China, Russia, and Israel, patience is a virtue in 2024 ›
- US-Ukraine policy under Trump would be similar to Biden's ›
- Trump: I would encourage Russia to attack 'delinquent' NATO allies ›
- Can Trump, aka Teflon Don, still get elected with a guilty verdict? - GZERO Media ›
- At the 2024 Paris Olympics, security fears and logistical challenges abound - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine's capture of POWs undermines Russia's narrative - GZERO Media ›
- How Trump's tariffs could help (or hurt) the US economy - GZERO Media ›
How campus protests could influence the US presidential election
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we are watching in US Politics this week: Campus protests.
They're happening everywhere. Elite schools, state schools, the Northeast, the Midwest, Southern California, campus protests are a major story this week over the Israeli operation in Gaza and the Biden administration's support for it. These are leading to accusations of anti-Semitism on college campuses, and things like canceling college graduation ceremonies at several schools.
Will this be an issue of the November elections?
Really difficult to say. Everyone remembers in 1968, massive protest at the Democratic National Convention, contributing to President Nixon's message that he was the “law and order” candidate, and the Democrats didn't have control. That could easily be repeated this year if the protests continue and are sustained into August at the Democratic Convention in Chicago, where it also was in 1968. And then, if the protests continue on campus once again, when schools come back in in the fall, right before the November elections.
One thing we're watching is how Donald Trump tries to spin these things. A key campaign message that he's been pushing so far, this cycle, is that everything they're saying about him are the things they're actually doing. They thought he would get the US into a war with Iran, and now President Biden came right up to the verge of that last week. They say, “He's the chaos candidate,” and now you've got wars all over the globe, you've got campus protests, you've got a spike in crime, and you've got a massive immigration problem under President Biden.
So, that message is going to be one that Donald Trump continues to push and will definitely resonate with Republican voters and could potentially resonate with independent voters if the large-scale protests and clashes with police continue into the fall.
- From the inside out: Is Columbia’s campus crisis calming down? ›
- Chaos on Campus: Speaker Johnson's visit fans the flames at Columbia as protests go global ›
- Columbia & Yale protests: What campus protesters want ›
- Crisis at Columbia: Protests and arrests bring chaos to campus ›
- Why Israel's Netanyahu continues to antagonize Biden on Gaza - GZERO Media ›
- Why Israel's Netanyahu continues to antagonize Biden on Gaza - GZERO Media ›
- Why Israel's Netanyahu continues to antagonize Biden on Gaza - GZERO Media ›
Bloodbaths vs. Patriots
In the traffic jam of elections that is 2024 – there are over 50 this year worldwide – the US is still the BelAZ 75710 mega hauler of elections, the biggest rig that carries more payload than any other on the political road. So when it tips over, it’s impossible to ignore. Everything matters about the US 2024 election, and we have to stay within the nonpartisan lines to avoid veering off-road.
So after Donald Trump gave a fiery speech in Ohio last weekend about an impending “bloodbath” if he’s not elected, it’s worth sorting through the carnage of coverage to see what he meant. “Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole…” he said. “That’s going to be the least of it, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the country. That’ll be the least of it.”
Did he mean another civil war, as some thought? Or, more plausibly and as his campaign has claimed, did he say it in the context of the auto industry and his concerns about high tariffs from China and Mexico?
That matters. Still, even the most charitable interpretation of Trump’s remarks – and I do think he was referring to the auto industry – doesn’t mean he wasn’t also playing footsie with apocalyptic, blood-soaked rhetoric, as he has long done. Warning people about illegal immigrants “poisoning the bloodstream" of the nation and openly talking about being a “dictator” are now standard parts of his campaign playbook.
The bigger problem is that the fallout obscured a much less difficult-to-interpret and more important moment in Trump's speech in which he openly rebranded the insurrectionists of Jan. 6, 2021, as “patriots” and those who went to prison after fair trials as “hostages.” It’s as if Jan. 6 is some 1979 redux of the Iranian hostage crisis and not a deadly attempt to overturn a free and fair US election. “You see the spirit from the hostages, and that's what they are, is hostages,” he said, adding: “And we’re going to be working on that as soon as the first day we get into office. We’re going to save our country, and we’re going to work with the people to treat those unbelievable patriots.”
The point is that this election is already overturning political norms in ways we have never seen in the US. There are other dynamics worth examining as well. Are Joe Biden and the Democrats radically shifting their support not only away from just the Netanyahu government’s wartime policy, but from Israel in general? What could that mean over the long term in the Middle East? What about getting more support for Ukraine? Or, as Ian Bremmer wrote for GZERO yesterday, how will America's new role as a fossil fuel superpower under a Democratic president play out politically and from a climate change perspective?
These are the core election questions this year. Is the US on the precipice of making fundamental changes to its role in the world and to its core democratic values? In her peerless book, “These Truths,” historian Jill Lepore surveys US history and asks whether the country has always lived up to its foundational values. It is the most important modern history book about the US, and its core thesis is playing out in real-time in the 2024 election.
This is a historic moment of testing that merits deeper coverage. That’s why we at GZERO are boosting our coverage of the US election and its impact on global politics.
First, check out our Election Watch section on the website, where we will aggregate our US and global elections coverage so you can get a clearer picture of what’s happening and what it means.
From April, we will also be changing our weekly video series with Eurasia Group’s Managing Director and lead Washington analyst Jon Lieber to “US Politics: Election 2024” and combining that with the weekly series “3 Big Things to Watch in the Election.”
We will also be continuing to track disinformation and the impact it has on the election as we did last month with the death of Alexei Navalny.
This weekend, on our weekly PBS TV program “GZERO World,” Ian Bremmer dives into the impact US foreign policy may have on the 2024 presidential election. The big question: Would a Trump second term bring considerable change to the way the US does business abroad? Ian’s guest this week, Harvard Kennedy School professor and acclaimed political scientist Stephen Walt, says it probably won’t. Ian disagrees. Tune in for a great debate.
It’s the first of several episodes Ian will devote to covering the US election and America’s impact on the world over the coming critical months.
So, get ready for more coverage and what we do best: more insight into what it means, why it matters, and where we are all headed. Let us know what else you want to see us cover.