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Calling all haters – voters dislike all of the above
A new poll by Abacus Data shows that a majority of Canadians want Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down before the next election. The poll, released last week, shows only 27% want Trudeau to run again. He’s due to face voters by the fall of 2025.
In late July, Abacus found that Trudeau’s popularity rating (positive impression) had dropped to 29% while 51% had a negative impression of him. But voters aren’t inclined to like his potential replacement – Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre – much better. Only 31% of voters had a favorable impression of Poilievre, while 37% had a negative one. The Conservatives lead the Liberals in most polls – in some cases by as many as 12 points.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating echoes Trudeau’s favorability rating. According to FiveThirtyEight, 53% of Americans disapproved of the president’s performance as of Aug. 29, while 41% approved. But Biden still has a slight edge on his potential election re-match rival Donald Trump, who is currently facing 91 charges in four criminal cases. As of Aug. 28, FiveThirtyEight has Trump’s unfavorables at 56.2%, compared to 39.9% favorable.
Polls pitting Biden against Trump in a 2024 rematch in the last two weeks show a potentially close race, but supporters on both sides are less than enthusiastic about a repeat of the 2020 showdown. A new AP-NORC poll finds that voters feel Biden is too old and Trump too corrupt. And while a majority of Democrats approve of Biden as their nominee, just 24% of Americans overall support him running again compared to 30% who support a Trump do-over.
Preet Bharara on the legal troubles of former President Trump
The rule of law is a cornerstone of democracy. Ensuring that everyone is treated equally in the eyes of the law, including public officials, is a critical component of a healthy, thriving democratic government. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with former US Attorney for the Southern District of NY and podcast host Preet Bharara to delve into the legal struggles of former President Trump. There is a strong possibility Trump will face a criminal trial as he runs for president in 2024, so the stakes have never been higher.
Bharara shares his analysis of the potential implications for executive privilege and its impact on democracy. In his wide-ranging conversation with Bremmer, they also explore the legal aspects of other news topics, including the ethical controversy surrounding Clarence Thomas and the ongoing Department of Justice investigation into the Ukraine leak.
Note: this interview appeared in an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on April 17, 2023, "Parsing Donald Trump's indictment
- Could Trump win the presidency even if convicted of a crime? ›
- Parsing Donald Trump's indictment ›
- Podcast: Trumped up charges? The law & politics of investigating a president's crimes ›
- Bharara: Clarence Thomas' donor trips may not be illegal, but not a good look ›
- Trump sexual abuse verdict won't hurt him with GOP - GZERO Media ›
Could Trump win the presidency even if convicted of a crime?
What if a US presidential candidate were found guilty of a crime, yet still actively campaigned for the highest office in the land? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer and Preet Bharara, former US attorney for the Southern District of New York, explored that scenario for former President Donald Trump, who just got indicted in New York but is running again in 2024.
Bharara revealed that Trump could still run for and potentially even win the presidency, despite being "pending trial, charged, or convicted," and even end up in prison." However, he warned, with no legal precedent, there are implications for how we think about the rule of law and the standard of justice for everyone, as well as the US electoral system.
The former federal prosecutor, who was fired by Trump, says the former president is unlikely to face jail due to his age, lack of criminal record, and severity of the charges. There's also the issue of his Secret Service protection.
Bharara speculated that Trump might try to manipulate the threat of prosecution to garner sympathy and portray himself as a victim of political persecution, a tactic that may help him in the short-term, but could have far-reaching implications for the future of American democracy.
Watch this episode of GZERO World: Parsing Donald Trump's indictment
Fox-Dominion settlement won't change US politics
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the Fox-Dominion settlement play into GOP politics ahead of 2024?
Honestly, not at all. It's a really big settlement, almost a billion dollars. And Fox basically is admitting that they posted a lot of disinformation, but it's not changing Fox's position as having the most watched of the cable news programs. It's not changing them from, after a couple of years of having a soft ban of Donald Trump, they're now regularly interviewing him and they will continue to, especially assuming he gets the Republican nomination. So I think that the continued erosion of US political institutions, particularly in the media space and the polarization, is going to continue apace. That is where we are. Kind of like January 6th, not a big enough crisis to have much of an impact.
What's Russia up to with its North Sea sabotage plans?
Oh, a pretty big deal in the sense that there's been investigations by the Danes, the Germans, and others, showing that there are these ghost ships, Russian ships operating in the North Sea that have plans in place as the conflict, if the conflict continues to escalate to sabotage wind farms and undersea communications cables. Not a surprise. That's what a rogue Russia's all about. Remember, the Ukraine War we could easily see freezing as the troops get exhausted and they don't have military capabilities to tack a lot of the land. But Russia is still seen as a rogue state by the G7, by the NATO countries, by the EU, and that's going to make them angrier and angrier. And so the likelihood you see this kind of confrontation, it'll have big impacts, especially on frontline NATO states and on the EU, is very likely going forward.
Is Sudan on the brink of civil war?
Does kind of look that way. There was, in principle, an agreement to a ceasefire, end of hostilities. It led to absolutely no change in both sides fighting each other. And at least you need to get humanitarian supplies in and you need to evacuate a lot of the Western citizens that are trapped there right now. As of now, very low likelihood that's going to happen. Already a couple of hundred dead and not a lot of journalists on the ground really able to report that news, but a very severe humanitarian crisis that is playing out in front of us in Sudan.
- What We’re Watching: Fox settles, UN’s Afghan exit, US debt ceiling battle ›
- Dominion Voting v. Fox News: The stakes are higher than you think ›
- Russia’s economy (finally) feels the burn of sanctions ›
- What We’re Watching: Sudan on the brink, unwanted Ukrainian grain ›
- Why Sudan’s crisis is a regional affair ›
- Tucker Carlson out at Fox News - GZERO Media ›
- Why Trump chose CNN for his Town Hall - GZERO Media ›
Parsing Donald Trump's indictment
Preet Bharara, former US attorney for the Southern District of New York, stopped by GZERO World to discuss three big legal stories in the news: the charges facing former US President Donald Trump, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas's gifts from a billionaire Republican donor, and the recent classified documents leak.
According to Bharara, the charges leveled against the Trump Organization and its CFO, Allen Weisselberg, could establish a precedent for justice and the rule of law, with significant consequences for American democracy in the future. Bharara ranked the severity of the three other potential charges that could be brought against former President Trump, with the conduct relating to the January 6th riot "being the most severe."
Though this is not the first US president to be charged with a crime, Trump's plans to run for president in 2024 while fighting criminal charges could have wide-ranging implications for the future of democracy.
"There are people who are not allies of Trump, who I think are responsibly raising the question, "What is the level of seriousness of a crime on the part of a former president that justifies bringing it?" Bharara tells Ian Bremmer, "And they're really great arguments and I struggle with this."
- Trump's indictment is problematic ›
- Trump indicted ›
- Podcast: Trumped up charges? The law & politics of investigating a president's crimes ›
- Bharara: Clarence Thomas' donor trips may not be illegal, but not a good look ›
- US intel leak shows rising risk of NATO-Russia conflict ›
- Why you should care about the legal case against the Trump Organization - GZERO Media ›
- Trump's uncertain future amid new indictments - GZERO Media ›
- Trump indicted (again) - GZERO Media ›
Trump's indictment is problematic
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and at least a few comments from me on the Trump indictment. You didn't hear anything from me about this a couple weeks ago. Of course, former President Trump had announced that he was going to get arrested a week ago Tuesday and when I heard that, I thought that that one thing that guaranteed was that he was not going to be arrested a week ago Tuesday, so he didn't really need to talk about it. But then after that passed and nothing happened, he said, "I'm not going to get arrested. They don't have a case. They've thrown away. These guys are idiots." And then I started to get worried. I'm thinking, well, if he's saying it's not going to happen, that means may well. And of course that is where we now are, that for the first time in American history though, this happens all over the world in many other countries, but the US had been exceptional in this regard.
No US president, sitting or former, had been indicted. Can't say that anymore. Now, former President Trump has indeed been indicted and he will surrender and he will show up in New York and he will be fingerprinted and get his mugshot and all of those things that will both excite and infuriate to various degrees, people across the United States.
I will say, first of all, that you should look at the polls to start. What do people in the United States think about this and that should be a cause for concern. Recent, I think it's Quinnipiac Poll showing that well over 90% of Republicans believe that this decision to indict is political, is not on the basis of fair application of rule of law. 70% of Independents believe that. 30% of Democrats believe that. So, it's interesting. This is not just a matter of political divide. It's also that for those that focus on all of the various cases that are being brought, that have been brought against Trump. The matter of Stormy Daniels, this effort to break campaign finance rules and to cover up an affair in the run up to the election, and certainly, I mean, lots and lots of people believe that the case must be solid. In other words, the evidence against him, to be able to proceed with an indictment. But that doesn't mean that they take it seriously. In other words, if this were another political figure, would you bring up this case? Would you indict? Would you consider it a felony? And there, the witch hunt that Trump is talking about, is something that is broadly aligned with by Americans, whether or not they like Trump.
And of course, one of the most important points there is the unifying factor that this has for Trump among Republicans themselves. Republicans, many of whom had been trying to differentiate, distinguish themselves, even criticize the former president, all coming right back and saying, "This is a travesty. It's a breach of justice. How dare they go after Trump in this way?" People, like Mike Pence, for example, who certainly seems to be running for president. People like Governor Ron DeSantis. People like Mike Pompeo. I mean, almost everybody out there was talking to Chris Christie the other day who is very, very critical of former President Trump, but also believes that this is a politicized case and that's a challenge. I think that's a challenge in terms of really dampening any potential for momentum for other erstwhile candidates against Trump on the GOP side.
Trump can still lose the nomination. But if you ask me today, is he more likely to get the nomination than he was yesterday? And he's already well ahead in name recognition and polls across the board of every other candidate, the answer is yeah. You'd probably bet that Trump is going to.
Now, a lot of people out there that can't stand Trump say, "Well, that's great because he's going to be the weaker candidate among Republicans against Biden, and we just want Biden to win."
My response, no matter who you support for the upcoming election, is that the potential for Trump to become president if he gets nomination is real, and he's going to be running against an 82-year-old Biden. And I think that for the safety and stability of the country, as well as the way that the United States is perceived by others across the world, Trump getting the nomination is a assertively a problematic and damaging thing. Any other Republican would be a better and more stabilizing outcome. So, I absolutely think that this is unbalanced problematic.
Now, beyond all of that, the fact that Trump has been indicted means that everyone is going to be talking about him pretty much nonstop over, when we talk about domestic politics, going forward. It really is kind of the beginning of another period of massive divisiveness and abnormality after many were trying to focus more on policy and governance for the last year, year and a half.
I think that also means that other countries around the world will now take much more seriously the possibility that this wasn't just an aberration 2016 to 2020 the United States, but that indeed there's something much deeper and more systematic afoot, which means more hedging behavior for other countries around the world, allies around the world, and that's going to make Biden's job more difficult in terms of foreign policy.
Now, we're talking about this in isolation. We don't even know exactly what these charges are yet, though I don't think that's going to make much of a difference in terms of the voting public in the United States when it comes up. I do think what will make more of a difference is what happens with other cases that are much more significant in their seriousness and their impact in terms of Trump on US democracy.
In particular, the case in Georgia where you have on tape the fact that he wanted Republicans on the ground to find him votes to be able to overturn the outcome. Also, more broadly, the effort by the special investigator in the Department of Justice, around the events of January 6th, as well as to a lesser degree, in terms of impact and importance handling of classified materials.
So, this is by far the weakest, the least serious piece of the cases that are being brought against him. It makes it much easier for him to talk about a witch hunt. It aligns the GOP with him. But of course, it doesn't mean he's out of legal trouble on the other cases. But to the extent that Trump's entire political ascent has been about grievance politics, has been about us versus them, and tribalization of the US political space, not to mention capturing maximum audience attention for everything he does. I actually think perversely, very perversely, that this indictment on the Stormy Daniels case plays to his benefit and not to his disadvantage.
That's where we are politically in the United States right now and that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Trump indictment would make GOP nomination more likely ›
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- Jane Harman: Trump trial a distraction away from urgent global crises - GZERO Media ›
- Parsing Donald Trump's indictment - GZERO Media ›
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- Why you should care about the legal case against the Trump Organization - GZERO Media ›
Podcast: What US midterms tell us about the state of US democracy
Listen: Remember when the US midterms were boring? As the dust settles on the most surprising US midterm elections in decades, ‘what’ happened is becoming clearer, but ‘why’ it happened is a harder question to answer.
On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer tries to make sense of the outcome with NPR's White House correspondent, Tamara Keith. They break down the reasons for the election results that no one predicted and analyze the issues that led more voters to support Democrats. They discuss the power struggles in the GOP and look at the road ahead to 2024 for both parties.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.Former U.S. President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
Bracing for 2024: Trump vs. DeSantis
As dust from US midterm elections begins to settle, the focus is shifting to tension brewing within the GOP. Former President Donald Trump looks poised to announce his 2024 presidential bid, and many expect Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to throw his hat in the ring. Trump is publicly discouraging DeSantis from running – threatening him even. With the race for 2024 set to begin, we asked Eurasia Group’s lead US political analyst Jon Lieber for his insights on the DeSantis-Trump feud and the likely 2024 presidential tickets.
Do you believe both Trump and DeSantis will run for 2024? When will they throw their hats in the ring?
Yes. Trump has hinted he's going to go for it next week at a big rally, but I think the Georgia runoff complicates that. He has the opportunity to take credit for a win, but he also faces the downside risk of taking the blame for a loss. I think that it's a pretty risky move for him to continue to go ahead with this plan. He could end up delaying, but I'd be shocked if we got to Christmas Eve and he hadn't figured out some way to get all the attention on him by announcing.
If Trump launches but DeSantis waits until after the next legislative session, would that give Trump the upper hand?
No, it’s a formality. Everybody knows he's doing this. The thing is that Trump and DeSantis, while they may have to play in the same pool of voters to win the nomination, they're not going to play in the same pool of donors. Trump's full money-making operation is the small donors he gets from online and then a couple of large benefactors. DeSantis is going to draw a huge chunk of change the day he announces from deep-pocketed, anti-Trump Republican donors desperate to consolidate the field and have a party led by somebody other than Trump.
How would the GOP change under DeSantis?
The Republican Party wants to be a multiethnic, populist conservative coalition, so pro-border security, anti-trade, anti-big business, anti-woke agenda, pro-life. So all the similar themes you're seeing right now, without all the chaos that Trump brings.
How would you characterize the matchup between DeSantis and Trump?
Trump has proven quite good at destroying his opponents. DeSantis hasn't gone through that gauntlet yet. In 2016, Trump came out of nowhere to just humiliate Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz, and all the other people running, by saying some nasty, sometimes untrue, sometimes true things. DeSantis is going to have to face that. That's the biggest risk for him.
Are Republicans blaming Trump, and what did you make of the New York Post likening Trump to Humpty Dumpty?
Trump is 100% getting blamed for this. His candidates did horribly in statewide elections in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and TBD Arizona. As for Murdoch, his empire has turned against Trump and made a kind of conscious decision to turn against him over the last six months. I think that reflects sort of a broadly held view among the Republican elite that hitching your wagon to the Trump train in 2024 is a mistake.
Do you think DeSantis has the charisma needed for a presidential bid?
Ron DeSantis is an extremely talented political actor. I don't expect he's going to attract a lot of crossover Democratic voters, but I think that when you win Florida by 20 percentage points, you don't do that just with Republicans. So I think he's clearly doing something right. I think he'll be a formidable presidential candidate should he run -- and the biggest threat to him being president in 2024 is probably the threat of Trump running as an independent and cleaving off 30% of the Republican voting base in the general election.
The risk in '24 for the Republicans is that Trump loses the primary and then takes his ball and goes home because he needs to keep his kind of political money-making operation going. He needs to be in the limelight, and that means running as a political candidate so you can do the kind of small-dollar fundraising he's good at. So the risk to DeSantis running, the biggest risk to the Republican Party in 2024, is that Trump loses in the primary, runs as an independent, and splits the Republican vote in the general, giving the election to the Democrats no matter what the state of the economy is.
Biden is saying he plans to run. How are Dems looking at 2024?
Independents broke for Democrats this election cycle. They broke strongly for Democrats in the key swing states where MAGA Republicans were up top of the ticket. Abortion referendums won basically everywhere. Pro-access referendums won basically everywhere they were on the ticket. Michigan Democrats had a very strong night, and they had a pro-choice, pro-access, female governor at the top of the ticket and a pro-access ballot referendum, and they had a very good night.
Democrats had a really good night across the Midwest, which I think shows a path forward for Democrats in 2024. Some of these Midwestern governors could be viable candidates should Joe Biden decide not to run. Biden's got to make a choice about his age. The good thing for him is that kind of having a good night here helps him within the party because it minimizes the narrative of this blowback against him, but it also gives him an opportunity to gracefully step down.
Which Dems do you believe could become viable candidates in 2024?
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and California Governor Gavin Newsom for sure. Whitmer and DeSantis had the two best nights on Tuesday. I think North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper will probably compete. Someone like Colorado Governor Jared Polis could be a candidate. So I think the Dems actually have a pretty good bench.
And the GOP ticket?
I think it's going to be DeSantis. DeSantis has the advantage of there being a lot of anti-Trump Republicans who are looking to consolidate the field quickly, and I think it's going to be hard for people like Mike Pompeo or Mike Pence to raise enough money to be competitive if DeSantis decides to get in the race.
- Will Trump’s 2024 candidacy sink Republicans? - GZERO Media ›
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- Podcast: What US midterms tell us about the state of US democracy - GZERO Media ›
- Republican identity crisis: Chris Christie vs. Donald Trump - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: Trump's Republican competition - GZERO Media ›