Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Palestinians walk in the rain at a makeshift camp in Gaza City, on Nov. 25, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump admin makes temp Gaza property plan, Taiwan to boost defenses, Tragic fire in Hong Kong, Brazil’s Lula leads in poll, Saudi opens door to liquor cabinet
20,000-25,000: As part of his vision for Gaza, US President Donald Trump is drawing on his background as a real estate guy, with plans to build a number of temporary residential compounds for Palestinians in eastern Gaza, each of which would house as many as 20,000-25,000 people. The aim is to entice Gazans sheltering elsewhere in the strip to move back to the area, which they were driven out of by the Israeli military. Officials say the first compound won’t be ready for months.
$40 billion: Taiwan will boost defense spending by $40 billion in order to face down the persistent threat from China, which considers the self-governing island part of its own territory. The US, which backs Taiwan, has called on Taiwan to fund more of its own military. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly discussed Taiwan this week. Meanwhile, for more on the rising tension between China and Japan over Taiwan, see our recent report here.
13: At least 13 people have died after a fire tore through a group of apartment buildings in Hong Kong on Wednesday. Hundreds of firefighters are at the scene seeking to quench the blaze. The cause remains unclear, but the buildings were enveloped in bamboo scaffolding, which the government had started to phase out in March over safety concerns.
46%: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would win in any plausible matchup in the 2027 presidential election, according to a new poll. In a face-to-face with São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, Lula would win 46%, while the man widely considered the right-wing heir to former President Jair Bolsonaro would win 39%. The jailed Bolsonaro remains the kingmaker of the Brazilian right.
2: Cheers to this, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will open two more liquor stores for foreigners, one each in Jeddah and Dhahran. Last year they opened one in the capital, Riyadh as part of a wider modernization drive that is meant to bring more foreign tourists and workers into the country. Name us a cocktail! The Jeddah Julip? The Dhahran Daiquiri? Let us know your proposal, we’ll publish the best ones next week.
Senior Nazi figures – Hermann Goering (1893-1946), Rudolf Hess (1894-1987), Joachim von Ribentrop (1893-1946), and Wilhelm Keitel (1882-1946) – stand trial in Nuremberg, Germany, 1945-46.
Hard Numbers: 80 years since the Nuremberg trials, Gazan ceasefire holds despite strikes, US and India inch closer to detente, Epstein files out before Christmas
80: Exactly 80 years ago today, the Nuremberg trials began. One scholar who knows a thing or two about the subject says it’s a reminder that international law – despite the punchline that it sometimes seems to be – can also make a real difference.
25: The Israeli military struck parts of Gaza yesterday, killing at least 25 people, per Hamas-linked local health officials. Israel said the attacks were in response to Hamas militants opening fire on its forces. There were another set of Israeli airstrikes on Wednesday that reportedly killed five. Both sides said they were still committed to keeping the ceasefire, though each side is struggling to move forward with the second phase of the ceasefire deal.
$93 million: In another sign that trade tensions between the world’s richest country and the world’s most populous country are easing, the US approved a $93-million deal to sell arms to India. The purchase also marks Delhi’s latest move away from buying Russian arms and toward purchasing US ones.
30: After US President Donald Trump signed the bill last night, the Justice Department has 30 days to release all of the Epstein files. It remains to be seen whether the release will be comprehensive – the department can withhold documents related to ongoing investigations – but Attorney General Pam Bondi has said that she would “encourage maximum transparency.”
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi holds talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Gyeongju, South Korea, on Oct. 31, 2025.
Hard Numbers: China-Japan spat could hurt tourism, Pro-Russian pair accused of attacking Polish railway, Neo-Nazi pleads guilty to poison plot in NYC, South Africa blocks arrivals of Palestinians
650,000: Roughly 650,000 Chinese tourists visited Japan in September, but those levels are under threat amid a diplomatic rift between the two countries. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that her country would intervene if China attacks Taiwan, prompting Beijing to cancel tour groups to Japan and ban employees of state-owned enterprises from traveling there.
2: Two Ukrainian men, who are believed to have been working with Russia, have been identified as the culprits behind the rail sabotage attacks in Poland over the weekend. The men are believed to have been recruited by Russian intelligence.
18: A Georgian man who hatched a plan to feed poisoned candy to Jewish children in New York City pleaded guilty on Monday to soliciting hate crimes. Prosecutors will seek an 18-year jail sentence. The man led a Russian & Ukrainian neo-Nazi group that has sought to sow violence worldwide.
2,000: The South African government announced that it will block the arrival of any further flights of Palestinians after hundreds arrived by air in recent weeks. Passengers said they paid $2,000 per ticket to an aid agency offering them a route out of the country, but South African Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola denounced the flights as part of “a broader agenda to remove Palestinians from Palestine.”
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves 10 Downing Street in London, United Kingdom, on November 12, 2025.
What We’re Watching: UK’s Starmer on the ropes, Mexico’s Sheinbaum beefs up security in wild West, Hamas fighters trapped in their own tunnels
Is the UK’s prime minister heading for the exit?
Just 18 months after Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a 174-seat majority in Parliament, he’s now clinging to power, with reports that he could be removed when he announces the budget in two weeks’ time. His allies say he will fight any attempts from within the party to oust him. Why is Starmer struggling? The economy is stagnant, he can’t unite his party, and he hasn’t crafted a clear vision for the country amid pressure from both the left and the right. To initiate the removal process, though, 20% of Labour MPs must nominate a challenger. Will any of Starmer’s allies turn on him and run against the PM?
Mexico’s president vs. the narcos of Michoacán
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is facing a major test of her security policy in the cartel-riddled western state of Michoacán, where the recent assassination of a popular mayor has sparked protests. Sheinbaum has sent in an additional 1,000 federal troops, bringing the total deployment to 10,000, and pledged $3 billion to boost security while also tackling poverty and other root causes of cartel power. Since taking office a year ago, Sheinbaum has pursued a harder line against cartels than her political patron and predecessor, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, in part because of heightened pressure from the Trump administration.
Trapped Hamas fighters put Phase 2 of ceasefire in jeopardy
As Phase 1 of Gaza's ceasefire nears its end, 200 Hamas fighters who are not being allowed to leave tunnels in Israeli-controlled Rafah have emerged as a critical obstacle. Hamas wants them to be granted safe passage to Hamas-controlled areas – an idea that US special envoy Steve Witkoff was amenable to in exchange for the terrorist group disarming. However, Israel is reluctant to allow them to go free. Phase 2 negotiations began yesterday, which will require Hamas disarmament, IDF withdrawal, a transitional government, and international peacekeepers. But resolving the tunnel standoff comes first. Even then, documents obtained by Politico reveal Trump administration officials harbor deep doubts about whether both sides will follow through on Phase 2.
Troisi Theater in Fuorigrotta during the presentation of the Five Star Movement's candidate lists for the Campania region, with the presence of Presidential Candidate Roberto Fico and former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
Hard Numbers: Italian pacifists stall EU ammo, Israel and Hamas at odds over hostage remains, Former Malian PM gets jail sentence, & More
13: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire again hangs by a thread as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the remains of an Israeli hostage returned overnight belonged to another body recovered by Israeli forces two years ago. The remains of 13 hostages remain in Gaza, Hamas says it is struggling to find their bodies amid the rubble.
2: A Malian court sentenced former Prime Minister Moussa Mara to two years in prison after he criticized the military government for harming the country’s democracy, Mara’s lawyer said on Monday. President Assimi Goïta has reportedly cracked down on dissent ever since seizing power in a 2021 coup.
18: An instant classic, last night’s game three of the World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays ran to an astounding 18 innings, lasting more than six hours before the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman hit a walk-off home run to win it. No word yet on how this affects frozen US-Canada trade talks.
14,000: Amazon will cut about 14,000 corporate jobs as it leans further into AI to streamline operations. The company plans more layoffs next year, citing over-hiring during the pandemic and broader plans to reshape Amazon’s workforce.
King Charles III says goodbye to Pope Leo XIV in the San Damaso Courtyard, in St Peter's Square, after attending the ecumenical service in the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City, during the state visit to the Holy See, on October 23, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Pope and king pray together, Gazans bury unidentified dead, Cast of crabs begin Christmas Island migration, & More
491: In a moment of religious and historical significance, King Charles III prayed alongside Pope Leo XIV today, becoming the first head of the Church of England to do so since this church split from the Vatican 491 years ago. The two leaders also exchanged gifts: Charles gave Leo a silver photograph of St. Edward the Confessor, and in return, the pontiff handed the king a scale version of the “Christ Pantocrator” mosaic.
54: Gazans buried the unidentified remains of 54 Palestinians on Wednesday that Israeli authorities had returned to the strip. The mass burial has prompted questions in Gaza about who the dead were, and what had happened to them. Israeli authorities said they had been combatants in Gaza.
36,734: The number of people crossing the Channel from France to the United Kingdom has already hit 36,734 so far this year, but that amount may be set to increase further – and the French political crisis is partly to blame. Paris appears to be backing away from recent commitments to clamp down on this form of migration, in part due to the recent exit of Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who had instigated an aggressive approach.
50 million: A cast of roughly 50 million crabs have begun their annual migration across Christmas Island off the coast of Australia, as they will move from their homes to the beaches to lay their eggs. Authorities on the island have built special bridges to help the crabs navigate obstacles like roads.
677: Nearly 700 foreigners fled Myanmar into Thailand after the military seized KK Park, a notorious Chinese-backed cybercrime compound known for cyber scams run by criminal gangs.. Thai authorities detained 677 people, mostly from China and India, and say all actions follow legal and humanitarian principles.
Displaced Palestinians live in tents near destroyed buildings as they cannot return to their houses, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, on October 19, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Tense Gaza ceasefire holding again, Trump pressed Zelensky on Donbas during Friday meeting, Japan to have first female PM
Ceasefire returns to Gaza after weekend exchange of fire
The US and the Israeli military said Sunday that the ceasefire is holding again in Gaza, after the two sides exchanged fire over the weekend in what was the biggest test so far of the peace plan signed last week. The flare up appeared to begin when Hamas militants – reportedly acting independent of the group’s leadership – hit Israeli soldiers with gunfire and anti-tank missiles, killing two soldiers. Israeli forces responded with a wave of airstrikes, killing 26 people, per local authorities. Israel said it bombed Hamas targets in the enclave, but one of the strikes hit a former school that was sheltering some displaced persons. The ceasefire remains a tenuous one, as Israel seeks the return of the remains of the last 16 hostages, while Hamas demands more aid. The next 30 days, per one US official, will be “critical.”
Trump presses Zelensky to cede Donbas in heated meeting
US President Donald Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to give up the Donbas region and accept a ceasefire deal on Friday, during a meeting that reportedly devolved into a “shouting match” where Trump echoed the talking points that Russian President Vladimir Putin made on their call the day before. Zelensky hoped the meeting would result in the US supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, a request Trump denied. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will speak in the coming days to prepare a new Trump-Putin summit in the next few weeks – something Zelensky signaled he would be open to attending if invited.
Japan set to have first female PM
Sanae Takichi, elected leader of the center-right Liberal Democratic Party last week, is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister, after her party penned a coalition deal with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party on Monday. The agreement means Takichi will have just enough support when Parliament votes on her ascension tomorrow. The Japan Innovation Party replaces Komeito as the LDP’s coalition partner following outgoing PM Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to resign, meaning the government will take a more pro-business approach. Takichi won’t be the first female leader of Japan, though: Eight empresses have previously ruled over the island.
Hamas militant stands guard, as heavy machinery operates at the site where searches are underway for the bodies of hostages killed after being seized by Hamas during the October 7, 2023 attack, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, October 17, 2025.
Who will govern Gaza now?
Earlier this week, Hamas freed the remaining 20 living hostages who were held in Gaza, while Israel released nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners — the first step in their ceasefire deal. As Israeli troops pull back to the agreed-upon line inside Gaza, the next and perhaps most difficult phase begins: Hamas is expected to disarm, relinquish control, and make way for a two key elements of the transition: on the civilian side, a “temporary technocratic government”; and on the military side, an international security force to take Hamas’s place.
Sustaining the peace will require a confluence of factors: real Hamas disarmament; an effective interactional security force, most likely drawn from the Arab world; a civilian, technocratic Palestinian government; and the emergence of a clearer long-term governance plan for Gaza. There are many questions that will need to be addressed between here and there.
First, how strong is Hamas? The war decimated Hamas’s leadership and infrastructure. Many of its top commanders are dead or in hiding, and its political wing has been forced to the shadows. Inside Gaza, many civilians blame Hamas for provoking a war that left the territory in ruins. Meanwhile, clan militias and rival factions are trying to fill the power vacuum.
But Hamas is reasserting control, “deploying thousands of security personnel, especially in key areas like Gaza City, in an effort to uphold security and consolidate its authority,” according to Dr. Reham Owda, an expert on Palestinian politics.
Hamas has also begun executing rivals to exert its military authority over the strip. Among those killed have been members of the powerful Doghmosh clan, long at odds with Hamas. Since Monday, at least 10 members of Hamas’s security forces and some 20 fighters from rival Palestinian groups have died in the internecine clashes, according to the New York Times.
Will Hamas disarm? Despite US and Israeli pressure, the group has shown a reluctance to disarm, fearing it amounts to political suicide. What Hamas may aim for instead is partial disarmament: giving up heavy rockets and tunnels while evolving its internal security wing into a police force. For Israel, given Hamas’s continued calls for the destruction of their state, keeping them in military power is a nonstarter.
What would an international security force look like? A central pillar of Trump’s ceasefire plan is the creation of an international security force to stabilize Gaza during the transition. Owda says that without this force, the conflict will persist on two fronts, “a war between Hamas and the Israeli army, and an internal war between Hamas and family militias.” But she cautions that international troops will only be accepted by Gazans if they are from Arab and Islamic countries. “Palestinian factions will not accept forces from Western countries and may clash with them.”
So far, no country has made a firm commitment to provide troops to the force, but Indonesia, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan are currently in negotiations. The US has said no American troops will be inside Gaza.
Meanwhile, Israel is wary of an international stabilization force in Gaza, which would restrict its freedom of military action — a central tenet of its security doctrine — and might set a precedent for similar arrangements in the West Bank.
Can a technocratic government be established? The recent ceasefire deal called for a “technocratic” Palestinian administration to run Gaza until elections can be held. The plan, championed by Washington and Egypt, would install a committee of non-partisan experts — business leaders, doctors, engineers — to manage day-to-day affairs under the oversight of an international board, with Tony Blair seemingly in the lead — see our recent coverage of his role.
Speaking of a possible technocratic Palestinian administration, Owda says, “These individuals represent the business and civil society sectors, are independent, and mostly hail from prominent Gazan families.” She adds, “However, without international forces, these members will face significant security challenges and lack the capacity to govern the Gaza Strip, as no national government can function effectively without security stability.”
In theory, this model offers a clean slate. It avoids empowering Hamas while ensuring basic services are being provided. But in practice, pulling it off will require a well-armed international security force being installed to keep Hamas at bay.
Longer term, can the Palestinian Authority (PA) return? “Yes, eventually,” says Atlantic Council’s Middle East expert Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley. “The current violence among the remnants of Hamas and other gangs in Gaza is a stark reminder that there must be a clear and strong Palestinian hand in charge in the strip.”
But the PA is also very weak and unpopular. It has been unable to protect Palestinians in the West Bank from the incursions of Israeli settlers, and it has been 20 years since President Mahmoud Abbas last called for elections. Polling conducted in May 2025 by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found President Abbas's approval rating at just 19%, though satisfaction was slightly higher in Gaza at 29%.
As imperfect as the PA is, it does have credibility as a governing body and is best placed to attract wide support among Gazans,” says Abercrombie-Winstanley, noting that elections are key to building trust and sustaining the Palestinian Authority’s credibility.
The ceasefire is only the beginning. Gaza’s future will be defined by whether Hamas relinquishes power, whether technocratic governance can be effective, and whether international forces can maintain security without inflaming local tensions. Every element of the plan faces resistance in some quarter, and any backsliding could reignite violence. For Gazans, the stakes are high: a stable, functioning government could finally bring reconstruction and relief, while failure risks another cycle of destruction.At the World Bank-IMF annual meetings this week, GZERO’s Tony Maciulis spoke to Rania Al-Mashat, Egypt’s Minister of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, about the enormous task of reconstruction in Gaza and the impact of the war on the region. Watch that conversation here
.