At first glance, it might seem odd that Tony Blair is leading the Western proposal for the future of Gaza.
It’s been 18 years since Blair exited 10 Downing Street, ending a historic decade in power that featured three election victories – including two landslide wins – that marked the peak of the Labour Party’s powers in the United Kingdom. Yet he played a major role in brokering the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and is now part of the “Board of Peace” that, under the ceasefire deal, will aim to ensure a permanent cessation of fighting in the region.
To better understand the former UK prime minister and his interests in Gaza’s future, it’s worthwhile to go back and examine his record.
From a domestic perspective, many praised Blair’s time in power, which ran from 1997 to 2007. He introduced a national minimum wage while bringing the unemployment rate to its lowest level in decades. He created a program called “Sure Start” to boost education for young children in low-income areas, the benefits of which the UK is still realizing. Annual growth rates averaged about 3% during his time in power, the likes of which his successors could only dream.
“But Iraq.” These two words have become modern-day parlance in the United Kingdom for a fatal flaw. For all his domestic success, Blair’s decision to join US President George W. Bush in invading the Middle East country in 2003 prompted a major backlash. Between one and two million took to the streets of London that year to protest the decision in what was the largest demonstration in the city’s history. Though Blair retained power after the 2005 election, his legacy would be tarnished forever. In case you missed it, the decision to invade Iraq backfired, leaving Iraq in ruins and exacerbating the issue of terrorism.
Blair’s foreign policy wasn’t a complete bust. He is considered a hero in Kosovo after he helped gather an international coalition to end the Serbian crackdown on the enclave in 1999. Many young boys there are now named after the former Labour leader.
But he still wants to have a say in the Middle East. In truth, Blair never stopped caring about the region. The same day he resigned from UK office, he was appointed as special envoy of the Middle East Quartet, a group comprising the United Nations, the United States, the European Union, and Russia that tries to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Bush administration had pushed for his appointment, but he didn’t achieve much, and resigned from the post in 2015 after eight years. The next year, he set up his think tank, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. With help from the world’s one-time richest man – which has drawn some scrutiny – the group has become arguably the most influential UK think tank, and was even involved in drawing up plans for the future of Gaza.
What’s his plan? The former UK leader released a 21-point proposal last month. This included establishing the Gaza International Transitional Authority to manage Gaza on an interim basis, a long-term goal of placing all Palestinian territories under the Palestinian Authority, and creating a security force – known as the International Stabilization Force – to maintain peace between Gazan residents and to nullify Hamas. Unlike some other plans, Blair’s one excludes any encouragement of the “voluntary migration” of Gazans out of the Strip.
The plan has been 14 years in the making, per the Vision of Humanity: Blair helped fashion a report in 2011 about building infrastructure and creating governance in Gaza.
Blair then helped US special envoy Steve Witkoff and former White House adviser Jared Kushner to create a US plan for Gaza this month, one that borrowed from the UK leader’s prior proposals. This plan – backed by many Arab states – would create a “Board of Peace” that will temporarily govern the enclave, with US President Donald Trump acting as its chairman and Blair as one of the board members. It doesn’t explicitly name any other leaders who would be part of this body. Drawing on Blair’s roadmap, Washington’s plan also calls to establish the International Stabilization Force.
Is Blair really going to govern Gaza? The plan isn’t set in stone, but it looks that way – especially after the Palestinian Authority endorsed the idea of giving him a role. Hamas has rejected giving a role to the former UK leader, but the plan also says the militant group can’t have a role in the future governance of Gaza, so their vote might not count for much. If Blair does nab a role, can he achieve some measure of redemption, and finally restore something that he cherishes now more than ever: his legacy?
