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Biden's vigorous SOTU speech aims to prove doubters wrong
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
What's going on with the Biden State of the Union?
So big week in US presidential politics. Super Tuesday basically effectively ended both primaries for the Republicans and the Democrats. We now have two all but official candidates. Joe Biden gave his fourth State of the Union address this week. Big question around Joe Biden, is he up to the task? 75% of Americans say that he is too old to run for a second term, but he is a attempting to prove them wrong like he did last night in Washington with a vigorous speech where he spoke for an hour, which officially kicked off his campaign.
Biden spoke about themes of income inequality, he spoke in favor of aid to Ukraine, and he rolled out a couple of tax increases that Republicans don't like. There's a lot of risk in every public appearance that Biden gives these days because of the fact that Democrats are very concerned that he's going to make a verbal flub or that he's going to look physically frail. That did not happen last night, and I think that's a good sign for Biden for now.
But every time he goes on stage for the rest of the year, there's going to be concern about how old he looks. So the campaign can now begin in earnest. Biden didn't mention Donald Trump by name in the speech, but he did indirectly attack him, talking about how Republicans are the party of the rich and how the threats to democracy represented by this election. At least that's how Joe Biden wants to frame it.
Why Mitch McConnell is stepping down
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
What are the implications of the retirement of Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell from his leadership post?
This week Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell announced his intention to step down as leader of the Republicans after serving longer in that post than anybody else in American history. There are really two implications that I can see.
The first is that McConnell was basically acknowledging the inevitable. It was very unlikely that he would be able to stay on as leader after this Congress anyway. If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, then he almost certainly is going to push McConnell out of the job. And if he didn't win the election, there's a whole generation of Republicans in the Senate who are looking for an opportunity to step up. McConnell, at 82 years old, did not represent that new generation. So the time had come to pass on the torch, and McConnell chose this February to announce it.
The second takeaway is that McConnell is really giving the speech the Democrats are hoping Joe Biden would give. McConnell's only eight months older than President Joe Biden, who's running for a second term right now. And lots of questions have come up recently about Biden's fitness for office because of his advanced age. This is going to be an increasing problem for Biden as more and more Democrats start talking about it. But in the absence of any challenger, it looks like Biden's going to be the nominee and his age will just be a liability they all have to learn to live with.
Mitch McConnell takes his cue
Why now? McConnell was frank: The winds have turned against him. The Reaganite ideals in vogue when McConnell first came to office in 1985 have been supplanted by Trumpist populism.
“I have many faults,” McConnell said. “Misunderstanding politics is not one of them.”
Even ardent opponents would have to agree. McConnell’s tactical reputation is legendary – to give arguably the most impactful example, he ensured a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court by blocking confirmation hearings for then-nominee Merrick Garland during President Barack Obama’s last term. The ramifications of that legacy will outlive us all.
Who’s next? The iPhone wasn’t on the market the last time Senate Republicans confronted leadership questions, but expect a little more MAGA. Sen. John Cornyn of Texas would seem to fit the bill, but keep your eye on Minority Whip John Thune, who might be more palatable to moderates.Mayorkas impeachment: Reps. Lofgren & Spartz on House vote on DHS secretary
The US House of Representatives is voting on a Republican-led resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over his handling of the immigration crisis on the southern border. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) and Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), who both sit on the House Immigration subcommittee, moments before the vote took place for their thoughts on the first impeachment of a cabinet secretary in modern history.
“[The impeachment] has nothing to do with meeting the constitutional standards,” Lofgren, former chair of the Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement, tells Bremmer, “It’s a complete waste of time.”
House Democrats say the vote is unconstitutional and politically motivated, but the GOP, which has a razor-thin three-vote majority in the House, accuse Mayorkas of a “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law” and beaching public trust.
“I always believe that ultimate responsibility lays [with] the top executive,” GOP Rep. and Ukrainian American Spartz argues, “We need to send the message that can’t allow executives not to do their duty to the public.”
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television beginning this Saturday, February 10. Check local listings.
Is the GOP primary race locked?
With Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis out of the race, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley – following her disappointing third-place finish in Iowa – faces Donald Trump alone in the New Hampshire primary today.
Haley is polling at 38% in the Granite State, and even if she wildly exceeds that in votes, she would still lose, giving Trump a decisive advantage ahead of the third primary in South Carolina.
For Trump, it’s all about timing. The 91 felony counts he’s facing are his biggest liability, and Trump’s legal strategy has been to delay the trials while trying to clinch the nomination as quickly as possible.
Between court appearances, he has been running a campaign to win endorsements and change state-level rules to his advantage. After meeting with Trump, the head of Nevada’s GOP barred DeSantis’ super PAC from campaigning in the state, and in California, Trump successfully pushed the state to change its formula for allocating delegates to a winner-take-all system.
Now, as Trump’s momentum gains steam, many in the GOP (Exhibit A: Ron DeSantis) are scrambling to show him their support – a telltale sign that they believe the primary contest is over.
Some critical unknowns
How will the Supreme Court rule? The justices are facing a laundry list of cases making their way through district courts that could influence the outcome of the 2024 election. So far, the court has agreed to hear arguments in Trump v. Anderson on Feb. 8.
The case will determine whether Colorado and Maine can use the 14th Amendment to bar Trump from their primary ballots. At the heart of this case is whether the courts view Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021, as insurrectionist. Their answer could have implications for the federal indictment regarding Jan. 6 being pursued by Jack Smith, which will be argued on March 4.
Who will be Trump’s vice presidential pick? Congresswoman Elise Stefanik of New York is rumored to be a front-runner. Trump’s allies are urging him to select a female running mate to make him more palatable to female voters fleeing the GOP. Other contenders include Sen. Tim Scott, who dropped out of the primary and endorsed Trump early, and Sen. J.D. Vance.
Trump is happy to leave people guessing, telling Fox News, “There's no rush to that — it won't have any impact at all.”
Trump to skip debate and star in town hall
Move over, DC, the political hub of the US is in the midwest this week.
Wednesday night is the final GOP debate before primary voting kicks off in Iowa on Friday. The pressure is on for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who are hoping to put a dent in Trump’s resounding lead. The two were the only candidates to qualify under the host network CNN’s higher requirements, which knocked out former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
Trump is skipping Wednesday’s debate, as he has the past four, and will instead host a town hall in Iowa, televised on Fox News.
Trump, whose legal troubles have him eager to clinch the nomination as quickly as possible, is looking to earn a decisive win in Iowa. He has ratcheted up attacks on opponents over the last week, particularly against Haley. The question is whether she and DeSantis, who have resisted turning on the former president, will now fire back against Trump on the debate stage.Will Democrats and Republicans head for the border?
But there is now more talk in Washington of a legislative compromise that Dems would accept and Republicans would cheer in the form of policies that make it tougher for asylum-seekers to enter the US.
Why might the Dems give way? They want more money from Republicans to help Ukraine repel Russia, and concessions on border policy might help. Dems also worry that another border crisis will undermine their 2024 election chances by boosting Republican turnout and diverting attention from other issues – like abortion rights – where Democrats hold a stronger political hand.
What’s the Republican calculation? Winning Dem concessions to tighten the border is a political victory, but an election-year border crisis on Biden’s watch might be more valuable.
We’ll be watching to see how heavyweights in each party play their respective political hands.
What this week’s vote and GOP debate mean for 2024
In a world obsessed with reading polls like prophecies, many are looking at Tuesday’s election results for evidence of where Americans really stand.
Despite Joe Biden’s lagging popularity, Democrats scored key victories on Election Day. They maintained control of the governorship in predominantly red Kentucky, made an impressive showing in Mississippi, and enshrined a constitutional right to abortion in Ohio. The abortion issue also helped Dems flip the House of Delegates and maintain control of the State Senate in Virginia.
So was Tuesday a harbinger of 2024?
Not if the five Republicans who took to the debate stage in Florida last night – former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott – have any say. With Donald Trump, who is 48 points ahead of second place DeSantis, refusing to take part, the debates are more of a pep rally for the Republican base than a competition at this point. But they reveal what the GOP thinks are winning and losing issues for the party.
Support for Israel was the biggest topic of debate, with candidates competing to display more support for American Jews domestically and Israel’s military abroad. National security followed close behind, and there was plenty of squabbling over who would be toughest on China. Meanwhile, the abortion issue got buried – it didn’t get mentioned until an hour and a half in.
But beyond the issues, Tuesday’s election results highlighted emerging threats to the GOP …
The power of the moderate Democrat: With the Republican Party reeling from the PR nightmare of taking three weeks to appoint a House speaker and the hard-right’s growing influence, many moderate Republicans and traditional conservatives are showing more of a willingness to shop around on the ballot.
Incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear’s win in Kentucky’s gubernatorial race and Democrat Brandon Presley’s narrow loss in his bid for the governor’s mansion in Mississippi are testaments to the power of the moderate Dem in suburbs, swing states, and even predominantly red ones like the Magnolia State, where Presley earned 47% of the vote.
Both candidates are being lauded as emerging political leaders because they can build coalitions, a strategy Democratic candidates running in inhospitable districts – and national elections – should heed. Beshear is one of the most popular governors in the country, despite running a state that voted for Trump by 26 points. His campaign leaned into the abortion issue and Medicaid access, rejected partisanship, and focused on jobs and the economy, gaining him cross-party appeal.
Abortion could help Biden’s popularity problem: We have seen what happened in Ohio before, and we're not talking about last August when Issue 1 – which concerned adding the right to abortion to the constitution – doubled turnout. Back in 2004, former President George W. Bush looked weak in the polls, so the GOP proposed constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage in 11 key states, increasing socially conservative turnout in tight races among voters who might have otherwise stayed home.
Now, Democrats are taking a leaf from Bush’s playbook. At least 11 states are on track to have abortion-related measures on their ballots in 2024, including swing states like Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The election will almost certainly be close, and getting abortion on the ballot could overcome Biden’s lukewarm popularity and get Democratic and moderate voters to the polls in the states where he needs them the most.
In Ohio, 18 counties that voted for Trump in 2020 voted in favor of Issue 1. The same goes for 67 other Trump-won counties in the six states where abortion has been on the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
In previous debates, only former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley recognized that abortion restriction was a liability for the GOP. But following Tuesday’s election, DeSantis softened his stance, while Haley continued calling for compromise, and Vivek Ramaswamy said “male responsibility” and paternity tests were the answer.
The moral of the story: Even with Biden’s approval rating in the tank, this week's election showed how making a few key counties a little less red can be decisive – a strategy Democrats will no doubt be hoping to repeat in November 2024. Meanwhile, Republican candidates will prepare for the next debate on Dec. 6 in the hopes of wooing voters ahead of the first primary in Iowa on Jan. 15.