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REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany.

Have the US and Canada managed a soft landing?

Speaking of things looking up. An economic outlook report from Deloitte Canada suggests the country will avoid a recession and begin to recover in the second half of 2024 – assuming the US economy keeps humming along, the Bank of Canada starts cutting interest rates soon, and newcomers keep arriving.
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Specialists tend to the body of a victim outside a damaged shopping center hit by a missile strike in Belgorod, Russia, on Feb. 15, 2024.


Hard Numbers: Missiles hit Russian border city, ex-FBI informant in Biden bribe case faces charges, Gaza needs new ‘Marshall Plan,’ UK slips into recession, Bangkok’s air becomes unbreathable

7: At least seven people, including a one-year-old girl, were reportedly killed on Thursday by an apparent Ukrainian missile strike in Belgorod, the closest major Russian city to Ukraine. This is not the first time Belgorod has been targeted amid the Russia-Ukraine war – dozens were killed in a strike there last December, as Ukraine seeks to show that it can still strike Russia, even as Moscow’s forces slowly push forward the front lines in the Donbas. Meanwhile, the US warned that the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, which has seen some of the worst fighting recently, is at risk of falling into Russian control.

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Security forces keeping watch after mosque explosion


Hard Numbers: ISIS-K strikes, ripple effects of Canadian wildfires, eurozone recession, Aussies rescue humpback in distress

11: At least 11 people, including two Taliban officials, were killed and dozens more injured in an explosion in a mosque in northeastern Afghanistan. The Islamic State offshoot has since taken responsibility for the blast. For more on ISIS-K and its ongoing beef with the Taliban, see our explainer here.

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Episode 3: Inflation Nations: What to know about inflation and interest rates


Listen: "During the course of this year, the Fed will not be concerned only with inflation as the months go by; increasingly the pendulum will shift, and they'll be concerned about the employment part of their mandate as well," says Charlie Reinhard, Head of Investment Strategy for North America at Citi Global Wealth Investments.

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Podcast: China's economic head start & a world accelerating into recession


Listen: What's in store for the global economy in 2023? Well, it's not going to be pretty. A raging war in Europe, sky-high inflation, and an unstable China will create strong economic headwinds in the year to come. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Globalization has brought prosperity to billions worldwide. And in the United States, the economy has made it out of the pandemic remarkably well.

On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks to renowned global economist, Dambisa Moyo, who says global inflation is not going anywhere, as the likelihood of a worldwide recession looms large. The US and China are moving into creating separate economic worlds, but are still closely linked. Although most of the world understands that they need to transition to cleaner energy, in the short term they still rely on “a hundred million barrels of oil every day.” Europe is creating what Moyo calls an “industrial Band-Aid solution,” rather than long term solutions to rely on energy from other countries. They discuss how these combined threats will affect the world economy this year.

Emerging markets most vulnerable to recession and political discontent
Emerging Markets Most at Risk From Global Recession in 2023, Says Eurasia Group Expert | GZERO Media

Emerging markets most vulnerable to recession and political discontent

Inflation shockwaves is Eurasia Group's top geopolitical risk No. 4 for 2023. But who is most vulnerable to the effects of rising interest rates and a looming global recession?

Emerging markets.

Why? For Rob Kahn, managing director for geo-economics at Eurasia Group, these countries are in deep trouble because they have higher debt and more subject to sudden stops of capital flows that'll make it harder for them to pay for stuff. Not to mention that the pandemic has killed any fiscal monetary policy space they had before COVID, Kahn noted in a GZERO Live conversation about Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2023 report.

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US House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) attends a press conference in Washington, DC.

REUTERS/Mary F. Calvert

What We’re Watching: McCarthy in trouble, Lula 2.0, global recession fears

Dramatic US House speaker election

Who will replace Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) as the next speaker of the US House of Representatives? Good question. As members of the 118th Congress are scheduled to be sworn in on Tuesday, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is still short of the votes necessary to lead the chamber. Even after making a major concession to his GOP critics by allowing them to fire him at any time, a handful of far-right Republicans remain publicly opposed to his speakership. If McCarthy doesn't get at least 218 votes on the first ballot, the lawmakers will continue voting until someone gets a majority. Keep in mind that the speaker sets the legislative agenda and decides which bills make it to the floor, so whoever gets the gig will hold a lot of sway at a time when Republicans aim to use their slim House majority to investigate the Biden administration and stymie the White House on anything from funding the government to continuing US aid for Ukraine.

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Odds of a global recession? 50/50, says David Malpass
Odds Of A Global Recession? 50/50, Says David Malpass | GZERO World

Odds of a global recession? 50/50, says David Malpass

Global inflation is forecast to finish 2022 at 8.8%, settling in at around 6.5% in 2023. So is a global recession imminent? David Malpass, President of the World Bank, discusses the global economy with Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World.

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