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Ian Explains: Welcome to the Global Economy in 2023 | GZERO World

Welcome to the global economy in 2023

How could the most robust global economy in human history get stuck in a sticky inflation trap?

The good news: From a historical perspective, the best time to be alive is ... right now.

Over 1 billion people have escaped poverty within the last two generations. They have experienced an unprecedented period of fast-expanding and broad-based prosperity.

And in the near future, there's a lot to look forward to: most of the world is moving on from the pandemic, Russia has no way to win in Ukraine, the European Union and NATO are stronger than ever, and the climate economy is benefiting from dirt-cheap clean energy prices, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.

But the bad news is that there are real problems ahead. The main one is inflation, which is not going away anytime soon and will drive a lot of the economic doom and gloom for 2023.

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Ian Explains: The State of the Global Economy Is … Not Good | GZERO World

The state of the global economy is … not good

This year, the annual fall meetings of the World Bank and the IMF were all about global economic doom and gloom.

The IMF has cut its global growth prediction for this year by half compared to 2021. And next year will be the worst since COVID and the 2008 financial crisis.

Meanwhile, inflation is still very high — and efforts by rich countries to tame rising prices are going to hurt poor nations.

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Global Inflation Shock | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Global inflation shock

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Going to talk about inflation. Why inflation? Well, because I posted something on Twitter that sort of exploded over the course of the last couple of days, which means people are clearly interested. And I'll tell you what the tweet was, I'll show you a little post here. It said, "US: left government, high inflation. UK: right government, high inflation. Germany: centrist government, high inflation. Italy: everyone in government, high inflation. Wild guess, it's not the government." Now of course, it is government in part, but it's not the government, which is the point. In other words, no matter who you decide to elect, if it was Trump, or Biden, or Merkel, or Scholz, or Johnson, or Starmer, or Bolsonaro, or Lula, you are getting high inflation, you're getting high inflation globally. I'll talk about why that is.

Now, a lot of people went nuts and said, "How can you call the US government left?" And certainly, from a global perspective, the entire US political spectrum is kind of on the right. And from the European perspective, you wouldn't call Biden a leftist, you'd call him a centrist. You might even call him center-right? Of course, Fox News on Primetime calls Biden and the Democrats a bunch of socialists. And if I said that the US was a left government, I mean a right government, then everybody in the US explodes, so it just shows how divided and screwed up everybody generally is anyway. But leaving that all aside, the point is the point. And it's an important point, which is that we are so divided in the United States and globally that when something that really upsets us happens that we haven't seen in over a generation, which is persistent levels of very high inflation, we get really angry, and we want to blame the government and blame the government hard.

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Episode 3: Will there be a recession?

Transcript

Listen: As record inflation meets rising interest rates, we’re examining the role of the US FederalReserve in protecting the economy from recession in the coming months.

15 years ago the world faced the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, brought on by a perfect storm of risky lending, mortgage defaults, and failures of financial institutions. In January 2008, the Fed made significant cuts to interest rates to stimulate the economy. Those rates have stayed historically low since then, but that’s rapidly changing.

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Join us for our Global Stage event live from Washington DC

WATCH : Today at 3:30 pm ET, GZERO Media streamed from the World Bank headquarters in Washington, DC, to discuss "Financing the Future" as part of our Global Stage series.

Moderator Jeanna Smialek, Federal Reserve reporter at The New York Times, led the conversation with Eurasia Group and GZERO Media president Ian Bremmer, World Bank president David Malpass, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Minister of Finance, Republic of Indonesia, and Rania Al-Mashat, Minister of International Cooperation, Egypt. We also heard from Vickie Robinson, General Manager, Microsoft Airband Initiative, and Gintarė Skaistė, Minister of Finance, Lithuania.

GZERO Media's Webby Award-nominatedGlobal Stage series is produced in partnership with Microsoft.

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Omicron: What the latest Covid strain means for public health, economic recovery, and Joe Biden

Omicron: What the latest Covid strain means for public health, economic recovery, and Joe Biden

We’re being told the ominous-sounding Omicron strain could have devastating consequences and take us back to the throes of March 2020. Or it could not. Maybe it’ll make things better rather than worse! But then again, maybe it won’t

Really, there’s still an awful lot that we don’t know about this highly-mutated strain now running loose through every continent (except Antarctica, those lucky bastards).

You can watch my initial quick take on Omicron’s impact here (though things have changed a bit since I recorded that on Monday):

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Podcast: Inflation nation: How Larry Summers predicted skyrocketing prices in the US

Listen: As the holiday shopping season gets underway, consumers are facing empty shelves and sky-high prices. What explains the supply chain crunch and how is it related to the highest levels of inflation in the US in 30 years? On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer is joined by economist Larry Summers, who served as the Treasury Secretary under President Clinton and as the Director of the National Economic Council under Barack Obama.

Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

Will Biden be the Grinch this year?

The minutiae of supply chains makes for boring dinner table talk, but it's increasingly becoming a hot topic of conversation now that packages are taking much longer to arrive in the consumer-oriented US, while prices of goods soar.

With the issue unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, right-wing media have dubbed President Biden the Grinch Who Stole Christmas, conjuring images of sad Christmas trees surrounded by distraught children whose holiday gifts are stuck somewhere in the Pacific Ocean.

It hasn't been a good run for Uncle Joe in recent months. What issues are tripping him up?

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