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Where does the US-China trade war go from here?

Did the Philippine midterm election strengthen Duterte?

It certainly did. He won almost all the Senate seats that were up. He has the ability now to move ahead with constitutional reform. Something that has been challenging for him. Any economic and pro-investment pieces he wants to do, also aligning more with China because he wants more inbound investment. Even though it's not all that popular domestically. His drug war on the other hand is quite popular domestically. It's not internationally and certainly not with the drug lords.

How likely is a conflict in the Persian Gulf?

It's getting a little bit more likely. The Iranian economy is falling apart. The Americans are pressing and the Europeans can't help very much. And that means the Iranians are starting to pull themselves out of the nuclear deal something they really wanted to avoid doing. They were hoping they could last Trump out of one term administration. That means that the potential for an accident leading to escalation is growing still not likely but it's absolute something to worry about.

Where does the US-China trade war go from here?

Well it goes to Tokyo, where Trump and Xi Jinping are going to be meeting at the G20 summit. We've got to be worried about that, but I'm still kind of optimistic because the next round of tariffs, if they were to hit, are the ones that go directly on all the goods Americans buy - the iPhone for example - lots of things from China you see those prices go up. It's going to be much worse than what we've seen so far. I suspect that on balance it's close. It's not easy. It's publicly difficult. But I still think on balance we're going to end up with a deal between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.

How the US-China trade war hurts Americans

How much will the China trade war hurt American citizens?

It's already hurting them a lot, particularly farmers. It's going to hurt more now that China is retaliating again. And if we go to 25% tariffs on everything China exports to the United States, that's much higher consumer prices, bad for consumers, bad for markets, going to hurt.

Does all the impeachment talk help Donald Trump's re-election effort?

I don't think so at this point. I certainly don't think it drives swing voters to him. I think if it drags on forever and Democrats don't make a decision, then it could be beneficial to Trump, but right now I don't see it helping him motivate his hardcore base - but they're already motivated.

Is breaking up Facebook becoming a litmus test for Democrats?

I don't know about quite breaking it up, but certainly talking about the possibility and more broadly about the power of Facebook and other big tech giants is definitely important for all Democratic candidates.

Will Don Jr. testify before the Senate?

He certainly doesn't want to, his father doesn't want him to. Plenty of Republican senators say don't do it. I don't know how he ultimately avoids it but he's going to try to delay it. His lawyers will try to delay it so it could take some time.

Trump Forces China's Hand: US Politics in 60 Seconds

Can trump stop Robert Mueller from testifying on Capitol Hill?

No, he can't stop it. He could try to slow it down with legal challenges, maybe even invoke executive privilege, but he cannot stop it.

What's up with all of Trump's tweets about China over the weekend?

I'm told by an administration official that Trump is trying to force China's hand to get a deal done by Friday, it could backfire. The Chinese do not like these kind of tactics.

Can Jared Kushner get his immigration plan through Capitol Hill?

No, there's people lining up on left and right already opposing it. Immigration had proved incredibly challenging over the last decade to get anything done. And Jared Kushner is not going to be the one who solves that.

Is Mayor Pete Buttigieg a moderate Democrat?

Well it's tough to slot him into any particular category but he's definitely more moderate than Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. He's also for 'Medicare for All' and fixing the environment. But he does care about debt and deficits and the long term impact on his generation.


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