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​Ian Bremmer on Trump's first 100 days

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: It is a hundred days of President Trump's second administration. How's he doing? And the answer is not so well, certainly not if you look at the polls. Worst numbers for first a hundred days of any president since they've been taking those polls. Markets, of course, down, global economy also down, so much of this self-imposed. And it's not the big-picture policy ideas. The things that Trump says he wants to do are not only popular, but they're also sensible policy: end wars, secure the border, and fair trade. Running on those three planks would work for pretty much anyone in the United States, the things that Trump is committed to, the things that previous administrations, including Biden and the promise of Harris, had not been particularly effective at. But the implementation has been abysmal. The lack of interest in policy specifics, lack of ability to effectively execute, and the dysfunction inside the Trump team/teams, economy, national security has been really challenging.

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People bathe in the sun under parasols on a beach near the city of Larnaca, Cyprus, on August 11, 2024.

Christoph Reichwein/dpa via Reuters Connect

HARD NUMBERS: UAE carries Cyprus’ water, China toughens trade stance, Trump admin ignores court order, Americans expect price hikes, Germany’s economy remains stagnant, South Korea’s ex-leader indicted

15,000: The United Arab Emirates is literally helping Cyprus navigate troubled waters by providing portable desalination plants to the Mediterranean island free of charge so it can supply enough water to the deluge of tourists set to visit this summer. The Emirati nation’s plants will reportedly produce 15,000 cubic meters of potable water per day. It’s unclear if the UAE is receiving anything in return – it seems happy to go with the flow.

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Protecting your money in today's unpredictable market

“When things are going fine, nobody really tests the skills and talents of their financial advisor, but this is a moment where really good advice can be extraordinarily powerful,” says Margaret Franklin, CFA Institute's CEO and President.

In conversation with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis, Franklin describes the current financial climate as “maximum uncertainty,” rating it a 10 out of 10 on the risk scale. Recent unpredictable US trade policies have sent market volatility soaring, leaving many people and investors uncertain about their financial and portfolio management decisions. The usual conditions of predictability and reliability have been upended, making it more important than ever to seek guidance from a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), Franklin recommends. She warns that the most “common destructive behavior” for a portfolio is abandoning a sensible program just when you need to stay the course.

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Global economic outlook: Is a recession already here?

“We’re heading toward a substantial U.S. recession,” said Robert Kahn, Eurasia Group’s Managing Director, Global Macro. “We may even be in one now.”

That notion challenges the official economic outlook released this week by the International Monetary Fund, which was more cautious in its assessment. However, it more closely mirrors what experts are saying in the halls at the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings currently underway in Washington, D.C.

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Paige Fusco & Ari Winkleman / GZERO Media

The Graphic Truth: The foreigners who hold US debt

The US is the world’s biggest debtor, with more than $35 trillion of securities outstanding.

About a quarter of that is held by foreign investors, a detail which has drawn considerable attention since Donald Trump began walloping the world with tariffs to rebalance US trade ties and military alliances. That’s because if countries upset – or merely uneasy – about Trump’s policies sell those securities in response, the debt servicing costs for the US rise. This is no small matter on $35 trillion worth of paper.

In fact, one widely held explanation for Trump’s abrupt suspension of the “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 9 was that wary bond investors had begun to sell US Treasuries: In the week of April 11, yields on 10-year US treasuries saw their biggest leap in a quarter of a century, a sign that creditors were dropping US sovereign debt fast.

Could countries weaponize US debt more directly? China, Trump’s biggest trade war target, is the second largest foreign US creditor, officially holding more than $750 billion.

A selloff could be devastating. But analysts say it would be hard to find enough buyers for a sale that is both swift and large enough to catch the US off guard.

And even if it were possible, a seller would risk their own financial security as well global economic health by kneecapping the US. In other words: It would be, in financial terms, the nuclear option.

The graphic above looks at which countries hold the most US sovereign debt. Note that the last official data precede “Liberation Day” and that they depend on official reporting. Some countries may hold more than what is listed here via third parties.

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet (not pictured) at the Peace Palace in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, April 17, 2025.

Agence Kampuchea Press/Handout via REUTERS

China warns world against harmful US trade deals

China warned Monday that it would “take countermeasures” against countries that try to curry favor with the US by hurting Beijing. More than 70 countries have reached out to Washington in hopes of brokering deals to avoid eye-watering tariffs, and US President Donald Trump said last week that Latin American countries should “maybe” choose between trade with China and America.
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What Canada’s main parties are running on in upcoming election

Canada’s 45th general election is less than two weeks away, and the nation faces a fraught political climate fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats towards the country. The election's outcome could have far-reaching impacts on Canada’s future and position in a fragmenting world. In an exclusive interview, GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sits down with Eurasia Group‘s senior advisor John Baird and Vice Chairman Gerald Butts to unpack what’s at stake in Canada’s election, including key political players and the strategies behind their campaigns.

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Special interview: Canadians head to the polls — and into the Trump vortex

With just over a week until the Canadian election, GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sat down with two senior advisors at Eurasia Group to get their take: Vice Chairman Gerald Butts, who is a former advisor to Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and John Baird, former Cabinet minister under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Here’s what they had to say:

Why is Canada in an election campaign? “The prime minister needed a mandate from the people, not just his party,” said Butts, referring to newly minted PM Mark Carney, who took over from Trudeau in March.

Baird was more blunt: “Carney wanted to separate himself from the NDP–Trudeau era.” Which he seems to be doing: Under his watch the Liberals have soared nearly 20 points in the polls and are currentlypredicted to form a government.

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