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Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet (not pictured) at the Peace Palace in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, April 17, 2025.
China warns world against harmful US trade deals
Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a tour of Southeast Asia this month, visiting key trade partners and calling for an “open and cooperative international environment” that rejects “tariff abuse.” But given the reliance of countries like Vietnam and Cambodia on US markets, Beijing may need more than words.
What comes next: Major players are kicking off talks with the US, with Japan starting last week and South Korea meant to commence within days, and Vice President JD Vancemeeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Monday.
Keep your eye on smaller players: Kenyan President William Ruto arrives in Beijing Tuesday, as his burgeoning economy faces strain from US aid clawbacks. For economies in the developing world like his, taking Beijing’s side might be the best hedge available.
What Canada’s main parties are running on in upcoming election
Canada’s 45th general election is less than two weeks away, and the nation faces a fraught political climate fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats towards the country. The election's outcome could have far-reaching impacts on Canada’s future and position in a fragmenting world. In an exclusive interview, GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sits down with Eurasia Group‘s senior advisor John Baird and Vice Chairman Gerald Butts to unpack what’s at stake in Canada’s election, including key political players and the strategies behind their campaigns.
Butts, former principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and a key Liberal strategist, says Carney is seeking a public mandate after taking over during Canada’s longest-running minority Parliament. Baird counters that Carney aims to ride early popularity and break from the Trudeau legacy.
Despite clear ideological divides, both Butts and Baird agree on one point: Canada needs a strong majority government. Baird warns that, “when you have such a small number of Members of Parliament, it’s like the tail wagging the dog,” expressing concern over the instability of minority rule. Butts echoes the sentiment, stating the country would be “far better served by a strong government of either political stripe.”
With Canadians heading to the polls, the world will be watching closely. The 2025 Canada election could determine not just the nation's economic path but its place on the global stage.
Watch full interview: Canadians head to the polls — and into the Trump vortex
Special interview: Canadians head to the polls — and into the Trump vortex
With just over a week until the Canadian election, GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sat down with two senior advisors at Eurasia Group to get their take: Vice Chairman Gerald Butts, who is a former advisor to Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and John Baird, former Cabinet minister under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Here’s what they had to say:
Why is Canada in an election campaign? “The prime minister needed a mandate from the people, not just his party,” said Butts, referring to newly minted PM Mark Carney, who took over from Trudeau in March.
Baird was more blunt: “Carney wanted to separate himself from the NDP–Trudeau era.” Which he seems to be doing: Under his watch the Liberals have soared nearly 20 points in the polls and are currentlypredicted to form a government.
Who are the main players? Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, presents “a safe, fiscally responsible concept” in Butts’ view. His main rival, populist Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, brings “a fresh approach” according to Baird, who served with Poilievre in Parliament. He sees Poilievre as “best able to speak to US President Donald Trump and his administration.”
What’s really on the ballot? Themain issue is who can most effectively deal with Trump, whose tariffs and musings about making Canada the “51st state” have enraged Canadians. So far, voters givetop marks to Carney on that question. But whichever party wins, Butts and Baird agree that the next PM faces a hostile White House. “We’re starting from scratch,” warned Butts, citing the breakdown in what used to be one of the world’s closest bilateral relationships.
Minority or majority? Both men think that a minority government would be a bad outcome. “You don’t want to be checking in with a party leader with 8% in the polls before talking to the president of the United States,” said Butts, referring to Canada’s smaller parties, the NDP and Bloc Québécois. “It’s the tail wagging the dog,” added Baird.
Advice to the next PM for dealing with Trump? “Don’t get ‘Zelenskied’ — and be prepared,” they agreed. And to the victor go the spoils, even if that victor will take over at one of the most fraught moments in Canada’s history.
“The worst day in government,” Baird quipped, “is still better than the best day in opposition.”
Watch the full interview above.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem takes part in a news conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada April 16, 2025.
Hard Numbers: BoC warily holds rates, Canada lobbies China for tariff relief, Trump gives borderlands to the Army, Global growth forecasts fall, Major League Baseball struggles to attract Black talent
2.75: Canada’s central bank held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% this week, ending a streak of seven consecutive cuts. Despite concerns about a slowing Canadian economy, and a lower-than-expected inflation reading earlier this week, the regulator opted not to cut rates due to massive uncertainty about the extent and impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs.
100 and 25: Canadian industries are busy lobbying one of the world’s largest economies for tariff relief — but, in this case, it’s not the US but China. The world’s number two economy last month slapped a 100% tariff on Canadian canola products and a 25% levy on pork and seafood. The move, which could cost some Canadian meat-processors more than $100 million this year, was made in retaliation for Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese EVs.
110,000: The Trump administration transferred nearly 110,000 acres of federal land along the US southern border to the Army, as part of its efforts to rein in illegal immigration and drug smuggling. The move, which lasts three years, will permit increased federal patrols, broaden the powers of US troops there to detain migrants, and facilitate the construction of more border security infrastructure.
2: Global economic growth will fall below 2% this year, the weakest showing since 2009, excluding the pandemic. That’s the grim new forecast from Fitch Ratings, a leading global ratings group. Fitch said it had slashed its global growth prognosis by 0.4 percentage points because of the expected impact of the US tariffs and the deepening trade war between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies.
6.2: This week Major League Baseball celebrated Jackie Robinson Day, honoring the storied Brooklyn Dodger who became the first Black player to take the field in the big leagues. But 78 years after Robinson broke the color barrier, black players made up just 6.2% of the names on Opening Day rosters this year, down from a peak of about 19% in the early 1980s.
US-China trade from 1985-2024
Graphic Truth: The US trade deficit with China, from zero to now
Hard as it is to imagine amid the harrowing US-China trade war these days, there was a time when the two countries hardly did any business with each other.
That time was about 40 years ago, in the mid-1980s.
In those days, China had just barely begun the sweeping economic reforms that would turn a country wrecked by Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution into a new “workshop of the world.” By churning out exports of everything from sneakers and sofas to smartphones and solar panels, China carved out a crucial role in the global economy.
A major moment in China’s trade growth came in the early 2000s when, over objections from US labor unions and industry groups worried about the impact of cheaper Chinese labor on American jobs, the US opened the way for China to join the World Trade Organization.
After that, China became one of the top three US trade partners, a place it has held ever since — occasionally beating out Canada and Mexico for the top spot. The US trade deficit with China — nearly $300 billion last year — is the largest in the world.
Since President Donald Trump’s first term, the US has hit China with tariffs in an effort to rebalance the trade relationship and “decouple” sensitive American industries from a country that most people in Washington now view as a rival.
These efforts have intensified in the early months of Trump’s second term, and the two countries have now imposed triple digit tariffs on each other.
Here’s a look back at how US-China commercial ties grew from nearly nothing into the largest, and now most contentious, trade relationship in the world.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media on board Air Force One on the way to West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., April 13, 2025.
The art of the repeal? Trump scraps China tech tariffs - for now
When it comes to tariffs, US President Donald Trump is proving more, er, flexible than some thought. Case in point: late Friday, US Customs quietly published a list of tariff exemptions, and buried in the jargon was code 8517.13.00.00. If you know your customs codes, that’s the digital alias of… the smartphone.
Trump’s new 145% tariffs on Chinese goods will now (mostly) spare the devices, as well as laptops, memory chips, solar cells, and semiconductors.
Why the walkback? Eighty percent of iPhones sold in the US are manufactured in China. The full weight of the tariff would have sent sticker pricessoaring north of $2,000, torched Apple’s margins, and further spooked Wall Street.
What’s China’s reaction? On Sunday, Beijing acknowledged the “small step” butcalled on Washington to go further, drop the rest and return to a “path of mutual respect.”
That seems unlikely in the near term. Trump on Sunday pointed out that Chinese tech is still subject to a previous 20% tariff, and that more levies and penalties on Chinese electronics and semiconductors are coming. “NOBODY is getting off the hook,” he warned.
The president earlier said he’d give more details on the evolving US approach to the critical Chinese semiconductor industry on Monday. Keep an eye out for that -- it'll be the next big news in the US-China trade war.
The Graphic Truth: Which US states export the most to China?
The trade war between the US and China is already scorching hot. As of this writing, the US has slapped tariffs of 145% on all Chinese goods, while Beijing has hit the US with a 125% levy of its own.
Much attention has focused on the tariff impact on Chinese exporters and US consumers – fair enough, given that China is the second largest source of US imports.
But US industries also sold more than $140 billion worth of goods to China last year – with agricultural goods (soy beans especially), electronic equipment, and oil and gas among the top exports.
Here’s a look at the ten US states that exported the most to China, along with estimates of how many jobs were supported by that commerce.
An Apple Store employee walks past an illustration of iPhones at the new Apple Carnegie Library during the grand opening and media preview in Washington, U.S., May 9, 2019.
Could an iPhone really cost $3,500?
US tariffs on China are now a staggering125%. That affects thousands of goods produced in China, but let’s take a look at one, which may be in your pocket or your hand right now: the iPhone.
CBS Newsreports that the price of an iPhone 16 Pro Max with 256GB of storage, which currently retails for $1,199, would climb to nearly $1,900. And that’s at the present tariff rate, which may rise further as the US-China trade war intensifies.
What about the longer term price impact? Trump’s stated goal is to have more iPhones — and other goods both high-tech and not — made in the US. High tariffs are meant to force the long-term, mass “reshoring” of manufacturing.
In principle, that’s possible, but it would come at a cost: Experts predict that a US-made iPhone could cost as much as $3,500 — and only after years of investment in new factories and workforces.
Apple recently announced it would invest $500 billion in the US, money the company said will not include manufacturing iPhones there. The White House, for its part, says it will. Watch this space…
Meanwhile, Apple is already accelerating shipmentsof iPhones to the US as consumers rush to buy before prices soar.